RE: Look to the past, for the FUTURE.....14 Sep 2019 23:24
Ib123, the crowd to ignore are those on here who supposedly already have a million shares plus but if the price is rising, they’re “topping up”. They’re here now , as always.......as on all the Aim boards.
And their buys are always “disguised as sells”. Lol
The SP didn’t rise last year on the spud of either Snow Leopard or the “beast” Wild Horse. What makes you think that it is going to be different this year ? Everyone was waiting for the “hordes” to come clutching their money upon spud news - didn’t happen and not happening again.
The only thing that will drive this up is an oil discovery.
This 75% chance of success touted by many posters is GEOLOGIC - meaning that they have a 75% chance of finding hydrocarbons but the amount could be so small as to be considered a dry hole. It doesn’t mean that Matad have a 75% chance of making a commercial find.
This is not deramping as some are likely to say - please feel free to dispute this fact.
RE: I think even I could make money20 Feb 2019 17:51
Example For a given extension project having a predicted mean reserve size of 1,500,000 BOEbarrels of oil equivalent, blow out equipment, the geologist has concluded that the probability of reservoir rock is 0.9, the structural probability is 0.8, and the probability of hydrocarbon charge is 0.9. The chief geological risk concerns whether a key fault will or will not seal, and the geologist assesses this as a 50/50 proposition. Thus, the perceived chance of geological success is 32%. However, construction of a field-size distribution for 20 analogous fault-separated fields in the trend reveals that only 3/4 of them are larger than 200,000 bblbarrels, which is the minimum economic field size in this trend for your firm. Therefore, the chance of commercial success is 0.75 × 0.32 = 0.24. Calculated in this way, 0.24 represents the chance of finding a field of 200,000 bblbarrels or larger.
Example from wiki.aapg.org. From what I understand, a geologic chance of success is much higher than commercial. If there are any geologists, etc. on here - please correct if wrong. It is very complicated.