This 75% chance of success touted by many posters is GEOLOGIC - meaning that they have a 75% chance of finding hydrocarbons but the amount could be so small as to be considered a dry hole. It doesn’t mean that Matad have a 75% chance of making a commercial find.
This is not deramping as some are likely to say - please feel free to dispute this fact.
RE: I think even I could make money20 Feb 2019 17:51
Example For a given extension project having a predicted mean reserve size of 1,500,000 BOEbarrels of oil equivalent, blow out equipment, the geologist has concluded that the probability of reservoir rock is 0.9, the structural probability is 0.8, and the probability of hydrocarbon charge is 0.9. The chief geological risk concerns whether a key fault will or will not seal, and the geologist assesses this as a 50/50 proposition. Thus, the perceived chance of geological success is 32%. However, construction of a field-size distribution for 20 analogous fault-separated fields in the trend reveals that only 3/4 of them are larger than 200,000 bblbarrels, which is the minimum economic field size in this trend for your firm. Therefore, the chance of commercial success is 0.75 × 0.32 = 0.24. Calculated in this way, 0.24 represents the chance of finding a field of 200,000 bblbarrels or larger.
Example from wiki.aapg.org. From what I understand, a geologic chance of success is much higher than commercial. If there are any geologists, etc. on here - please correct if wrong. It is very complicated.
RE: I think even I could make money20 Feb 2019 14:25
Captain, ignore SD855.
Before I joined the board I read a lot of the older posts - there was a bigger archive then. There were a handful of neutral, sensible posts that advised caution and called things right - was easy to see in hindsight. Those posters were you, Bishand and Justscott (and probably some others that I missed).
The majority of posts were blatant rampers of the share and their cheerleading team. Only in it to make a buck for themselves.
RE: I think even I could make money20 Feb 2019 14:08
It got in 13s a dozen times last year. It fell from double digits after placing and no rises pre spud. And, if I remember correctly, those COS were commercial chance of success not geologic.
So, I would be very surprised to see this rise to 10 or 12 pre spud - if thought that was the case I would be buying more again to sell at that price. Who knows - but for right now I’ll just keep what I’ve always been holding for spud. Point being - you can make a little money on this share as it moves up and down.
Rule of thumb on the AIM bb - never trust anyone who needs to spout on a daily basis on how much they’ve topped up. And they all generally hold million + shares in a very short time and they all feel the need to announce it.
Too obvious really........but guess that’s why they’re bottom feeders.