Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
From Leechang other side:
‘The EIA program assisted the project by introducing a $300 million strategic investor with $800 million in debt financing’
Assuming only 50% of the 800,000,000 is equity that is 15.594 Bn shares at current prices - still excited?
One assumes the board will have a better deal on the table longer term. But await RNS accordingly. V
Thanks TDT,
Good to hear from you too. I do keep a look every so often. If Kun Manie was in WA they would be in year 2 of production now. Lol.
That preso by he way is for another of their sites. There’s one they haven’t got to grips with properly yet too.
East Laverton is also big on polymetals and Gold and they have lots of Zinc and Quartz stuff in the massive sulfides too. Nickel sufide wise WA is quite prospective still. V
https://stgm.com.au/uploads/documents/Presentations/21_Mar_2019_Battery_Metals_Conference_Presentation_Final.pdf
There you go TDT.
No escaping the determination to extract for EVs. Game on. The forecast for a resource delineation is this year.
More site info and grades in here. Look at some of the higher ones with 6/7 metres in depth. It’s a big ass place as they say. V
GB33
You are right on a rights issue. It would have to be discounted and that would lead to worse dilution than with Riverfort. Also Riverfort is a guaranteed proposal and a rights issue is not. (Despite the rhetoric from the message boards (which is not a lead indicator lol)).
You have to think that the liquidity would be a indicator of whether a rights issue would be a de facto way to go. also the interest of Sophs into the mix.(I.e. Do sophs want to get involved in Russia?).
To be honest for the dilution for the Riverfort deal for the next year or so, pending as TDT states: not much action in the paddock, it may be the lesser of two evils.
Isphahan, I certainly remember you for many years. Put the offender on ignore. Serial abusers aren’t worth it. V
Amur Tigers, in response to misleading people, can you supply a link to the following statement please? Or an RNS that we may have missed?
‘Basically Amur Minerals being sold to Chinese within next 6 months.’
I may have missed something you have read through the regulatory process. V
TDT/ARY82
TDT is spot on Ary, the time to bail will be some time between securing full funding and pre-production. There are a number of investment curves that show this historically for minnow to producer.
I posted about 3 - 4 months ago for people not to get too excited as the SP probably wouldn’t go ballistic once the PFS was released. The climate seems to have changed quite a bit since the GFC. The mental side of mining has quieted. Things for juniors here in Aus are very subdued and funding for sites around the world is much harder to obtain. Banks have been thrust into the limelight a lot following GFC days and funding is now a much more difficult and rigorous process (or so it seems).
Again TDT will probably be right if the boom on EVs takes off. Then suitors May come knocking. In that space I noticed the Graphite plays are now a bit more circumspect about when the peak will be. It looks from the analysis on that side (and you don’t currently have a battery without a lot of Graphite) the peak of the ramp up will be 2025. So that corresponds with AMCs timescales as the boom will settle and nickel will be well in demand.
With respect to Nickel levels it is currently a bit irrelevant for AMC. They have a long way to go and they will probably catch the next cycle. Base metals funnily enough seem to be taking a bit of a nose dive in a few quarters.
Shenanigans with the blond bumshell in the WH probably influences a lot of crapola. Anyway it doesn’t concern AMC as it is more longer term for the major outputs. V
Hi TDT,
You could possibly be looking at 2026/27 for production. In the announcement the other day it states a 3 year construction program. Add BFS end as you stated @ end 2022 there is normally a 6-12 month lag on major funding $500m+
However, if off-takes can be arranged the funding may come a bit quicker and the date could get pulled in. Hard to see the construction being shortened though. It will be weather dependent for the road completion before delivery of the long lead heavy items and processing equipment - crushers, comminution, stackers and reclaimers etc.The site will then be finalised post those deliveries. Ramp up will take 6-12 months minimum to get to full production.
Looks like the delay you forecast is spot on. Short term funding to help keep things progressing required now. V
When people attend the preso they should make a point of asking why RY thinks a strip ratio of 12.8:1 is viable. The volume alone (12.8 tonnes of material (what is it?) to gain 1 tonne of ore. That is simply non-viable unless the overburden is like sand and very easy to move.
To me the strip ratio that high (in what is a very hilly region) would preclude OP mining. However, and somebody should ask this too, have the figures for targeted UG mining been done on a prospective estimate? The talk previously was for targeted room and pillar UG mining in some areas. Surely this presents an alternative to shifting tonnes of material in areas that are not flat? Actually, what are the conditions on the ground for this section at 12.8:1. From previous drill plots this looks like a fairly hilly area all round but confirmation would be nice.
I’m with you on the %ages pity the inferred can’t make it in. However, it would be nice to see a plan for it in the documents when they come out. One assumes they should be out soon enough.
In answer to solis below, those deleterious secondary metals are normally dispersed however not always uniformly and the Nickel and copper as you can see from Reds figures is equally dispersed and not even over the whole mine site. V
Hi Lee,
Sorry for not responding directly yesterday. I’ll start at the back of your post with the ASX names, currently I have 3 queued up for funding and the banks playing very hard to get. Looking around though that is currently symptomatic of the industry here and following the spanking the banks got off the Royal Banking Commission which found all the majors being very naughty, everything for funding is harder to get - even mortgages and they were throwing them at you a year ago. But what’s new? Seems par for the course in banking culture.
As for AMC I think you have the financials pretty much tied up. They have an industry problem in that commodities are at the whim of the orange man in the WH who seems to have driven the Chinese to say Fcku bro. And everything is now in a state of flux. The bloke is worse than the village idiot.
Also we have a mine with a lot of resource but it is spread, so not easy to target and especially in the mountains/hills. I would have thought, if I was RY, about targeting UG mining if poss to get the thing started. But that too has limitations with spread but has the benefit of no overburden. Pity there is no target that could be a DSO that would alleviate early construction costs. If the high grade resource can be adequately targeted it may make it pay to go for that first before looking at a rock overburden. But there are also resources close to surface in those too so that would convolute the decision making process and the mine planning. Once started continuity is the name of the game for minimal disruption for about 350 days of the year (pending end of year shutdown for maintenance activities across the board for a couple of weeks).
Like I posted yesterday, the long term recovery schedule and mine plan are going to be tortuous and that is not helped by industry conditions (mining) being poor across the world at the moment. I think they are in a quandary here, and it is to do with two things - 1) Resource spread 2) High cost funding in a tight market environment.
Also, what has happened to aspects such as the road, power etc. that were exciting all on he board here some time back. Has the reality hit home that it very expensive? Who knows.
I would really like to see this do well, however is current market conditions that is tough. Good luck to them. One thing I will add is that they need to be a bit more consistent in their promised outputs. V
I’ll mention a couple of more things too:
I took Into account the depth of the resource through the figures given. So here is the problem, where the ore body is disparate, i.e. not all near the surface in one spot it presents a problem, which is the supporting infrastructure to go with those spots. They require lighting, haul roads, vehicles, drag lines or excavators and other supporting equipment. They also need to be coherent with respect to comminution, processing, tailings, dams, bulk earthworks and other factors. So you have to plan and it has to be coherent - it can’t be done Willy nilly. If it was all in one spot happy days. But it’s not.
So that is why you now have the super pit to part get round the problem. Trouble is that means super planning around high grades to maximise. However, that means the infrastructure needs replanning to support the super pit. Also some of the high grades are very deep. So it will be time before super pit gets nested fully to get to said high grades. Then the striping ratio which is presumably averaged at 12. Something, with rock as overburden is an issue and slow, much slower than sands or alluvial gravel for instance.
Not easy. V
What is the truth? I find it hard to define. Did we have a route only to not have one a year later. Why did it take a year to screen two candidates into one presuming JSC is the final?
Where are the results? I don’t think building haul roads in mountains is easy, what are the provisional costs? Can we see them in the PFS? Oops....
Where do we actually sit here? BoD?......V
So that was the 8th March 2018. We are exactly 8 months from the promised deliverables below - however contrast that set of deliverables with this from April 2017.....
Kun-Manie Access Road Update
Â
Amur Minerals Corporation ("Amur" or the "Company"), a nickel-copper sulphide mineral exploration and resource development company focused on the far east of Russia, is pleased to announce that it has received topographic and hydrological information on a four kilometre wide, 320 kilometre long corridor, along its planned access road route. This corridor is located within the area where the Company plans to construct a Russian "Technical" Class road, which will connect the Company's flagship Kun-Manie project to the Baikal Amur ("BAM") rail line. The road will be used to transport concentrate and supplies to and from the site over the course of the planned operation.
Highlights:
·    A phased approach is being implemented to define the final access road design and its total final cost of construction. Use of this approach will allow for development of the most efficient route design, establishment of necessary construction requirements and the potential inclusion of road bed geotextile materials which could reduce total capital and operating costs for the road.
·    Based on the Company's route, defined in 2016 by a qualified Russian road engineer and newly generated topographic and hydrological maps, Phase One is being initiated.
·    The Company has screened 12 Russian road design companies and identified two companies that are fully qualified to complete the engineering, design and construction of the access road. These pre-qualified companies will be receiving a Request for Proposal to provide a bid for the first phase of the engineering and design work of the access road.Â
·    Deliverables for this first phase of work include the selection of the route with major design considerations including bridges and water crossings (diversions), road maintenance requirements, road related infrastructure, administrative considerations, preliminary environmental assessments and the Phase One estimated construction and operating costs of the road.
·    In parallel with the work being implemented by the contractor awarded the Phase One work, Mabey Bridges Holding ("Mabey") will be providing additional information to assist with the design of the access road. Mabey is a bridge construction specialist qualified in the design and construction of bridges suitable for use in arctic environments where temperatures of sub -40C are typical. Mabey is UK domiciled and its products are certified for use in the Russian Federation.
·    Should the UK derived capital cost components exceed 20% of the total capital cost of the access road, the Company has the potential to receive funding from the UK Export Finance and Department of International Trade ("UKEF"). The Company is in preliminary
Amur Minerals Corporation ("Amur" or the "Company"), a nickel-copper sulphide mineral exploration and resource development company focused on the far east of Russia, is pleased to announce that it has engaged JSC Cevi Construzioni ("CC") to undertake the inaugural step in the design for its near 350 kilometre long access road from the Ulak rail station area (on the Baikal - Amur rail line) to the Kun-Manie project site. This step is the first in a three component process allowing the Company to apply for a long term grant of access rights to the project site.
Â
Highlights:
Â
·    As per Russian Federation requirements, the first component (awarded) of the access road work will consist of a desktop review of the Company's current design route and the parametres utilised in its generation.  This will include consideration of bridge and crossing designs, hydrological considerations, generation of road profile(s) and limited typical road design sections, potential cut and fill volumes, current land ownership considerations, and ecological and geological surveys to be completed under current Russian standards.  CC estimates this work will require between 8 and 12 weeks to complete which is scheduled to commence 12 March 2018.
Â
·    Upon completion of the inaugural stage, an ensuing second desktop study phase will be implemented and will consist of a more detailed and comprehensive design including identification of specific fill sources, refined bridging details, etc.  Capital and operating costs will be defined as a part of this work. This second stage of desk top work is projected to require between four and five months to complete and will be awarded post completion of the inaugural work component.
Â
·    Concurrent with the compilation of the inaugural stage and ensuing second desktop study phase, the Company will be completing a third component to the study. This component consists of the compilation of a land usage package including public hearings for additional input on route selection. The communities, local and Amur Oblast administrations are strong supporters of Amur and the development of the Kun-Manie deposit.
Â
·    The information from the inaugural and second desk top evaluation components as well as the land usage plans will be amalgamated into a final document for review and approval by necessary Amur Oblast authorities enabling Amur to proceed to land allotment, cadastral registration and assignment of a short term land lease. Approval by the Amur Oblast authorities will allow the Company to immediately implement an on the ground field survey of the access road route.
Â
·    Based on the field survey evaluation, final design adjustments will be identified to avoid any identified geological and hydrological hazards whilst considering any potential ecological considerations, and a final route will be established. Subsequently and according to Russian
I think sequencing is only part of the story. Consider this statement from the 2018 drill season end RNS:
June 2018 preliminary open pit designs indicated the potential to derive MOR from the IKEN, ISK and KUB area was in the order of 58 million ore tonnes requiring 744 million tonnes of waste to be mined providing a 12.8 to 1.0 waste to ore stripping ratio. The average mine diluted grades were projected to be 0.61% nickel and 0.17% copper. Based on the March 2018 MRE, the newly discovered mineralisation and the conversion of existing Inferred resources, it is anticipated that there will be a material change to the preliminary ultimate pit designs. Previously, it was indicated that three separate pits could be mined. With the linking of the deposits at ISK and KUB and the reduction of the waste zone between IIHG and ISK having been drill proven, new ultimate pit optimisation results may well result in the unification of the three currently identified pits into a single large ultimate pit having a reduced stripping ratio.
I think the PFS has a problem that they can’t make it pay. Also if you look historically the stripping ratiosat various points are very high. Not so bad if you are stripping sands but if you are stripping rock? The hills where they are would be, presumably mostly rock. That is very expensive.
One assumes that they have to delay until the ‘price is right’ with Nickel.
Tunnelling is the other option but is also very expensive, especially in those areas as they would have to be prepared carefully in the planning stage. I don’t think the grade averages stack up at the moment. Just my thoughts. V
https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Aspire-proves-up-viability-of-Russian-rail-link?utm_source=Business+News+Mailing+List&utm_campaign=0c5b493254-dba&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e5391356e5-0c5b493254-289677717
Look whose initiative it is and what it can do in the future. V
I think there may be some problems with cash. Imo the news blackout is based on this comment from the interim results....
In February 2018, the Company entered into a convertible loan facility of up to US$10 million, with an initial advance of US$4 million being drawn at the time the facility was entered into. As at 30 June 2018 17.5 million new ordinary shares have been issued by the Company in settlement of US$1 million of principal and accrued interest. As at reporting date the balance of the loan, net of issue costs, stood at US$2.4 million. No further funds have as yet been drawn from the facility as certain milestones attached to subsequent draw-downs have not been met. However, the Company maintains a good relationship with the loan note holders and discussions on future draw-downs are on-going but not finalised.
There are also a number of other issues affecting this share, banks have been playing hard ball for some considerable time now and even jurisdictions that are safe as houses are finding funding hard to come by.
Equally and this agrees with DBs view of life somewhat, there is a lifecycle for funding and just before funding and construction shares hit a nadir which can last for years. This is happening to AMC now.
The problem is that is short term funding is unavailable then where do you go? They may be on good terms with the lender but they don’t give money away and they will equally be watching the fluidity and level of share price, where any news is hit with a brick wall.
Over here a PFS and DFS is not seeing the movement of old, like in the mining upcycle. One suspects AMCs will be treated the same way.
RY May be between a rock and a very hard place at the moment. V
Has anyone contacted the Guiness Book of Records regarding the current time taken to produce a PFS. When you see a completed one, and I’ve seen quite a few, you get to thinking wtf?
There is, and cannot be, an excuse to take this long. The fact that they broached change with living document, which in engineering terms is fair play, makes the delay even harder to stomach. It is quite appalling really. Regardless of where you sit on the ramp / deramp scale. V
I can’t believe that as a premise. It doesn’t wash Steve.
I think you have some of it right. The spread of geology is over an exceptional area. How to get the best out of that area is another story. That is more likely to be the issue. I think I had pretty much guessed where the resource was going, so that is the bit that doesn’t wash.
I think the problem may lie in making the project pay and getting interest form parties. The geography is not kind in this instance and to minimise early repayments (which include toll smelting) there has to be, IMO, a targeted approach to high grade areas first. This is problematic as the resource spread is not kind either. Yes there is a lot of it but the factors to get to a total that gives a good PFS and one that repays quickly on what is a large funding requirement, is a tough gig. The mine layout and extraction method is also tough. The strip ratio on OP is quite large and the terrain is tough, the UG is more expensive and targets vary imo. That is the root of delay I reckon.
My own observations around the globe are that finance, high end, is proving very hard to get from the banks for the explorers. Certainly that is what I am finding with some of my other investments in countries that are much more favourable than Russia.
He, RY, May just be waiting it out. This happens, he missed the supercycle and now mining / banks globally have a different relationship. Lessons learnt on the banking side methinks. My thoughts anyway. V
TDT/MD
Yes I don’t disagree with much of what you wrote. I’m a silverback too.
For Maybach, maybe it’s about content, when there is a decent discourse to be had certain people post. When posters are threatening to kill each other or harm each other or resorting to the childish counter post certain people don’t post. Does that tell you anything about why certain people don’t come on here too often? V