Member Info for Velo

Back in June some posters on here were forecasting £5 by September. Well, you now have less than 24 hours to come up with the goods. I mean £4.92 to buy, is just so wide of the mark and simply won't do, will it? :) :) :) :)

Mathsman & Formerequityan posted below that GVC is their biggest holding in their respective portfolios. I'm thinking of a adding where oppourtune. If I may, if it's not too intrusive - What % of your portfolios does your holding in GVC represent?

On the other hand, having posted that IChronicle link below, that they are now touting Opay as a sell - my charts are still giving out a full throated, roaring, screaming buy, even at this "lofty" SP height ! IC fundamentals say sell - My simple MAvg charts say buy. Who's right, who's wrong? What we have here is a case of Chartists V Fundamentalists. - Game on. Game on! :)

Yesterday IC did an article on Opay which concluded with the final summing up below and are now recommending a sell: " IC VIEW: Shares in Optimal Payments (OPAY) have surged nearly six-fold since we first suggested buying in 2012. They now trade on 21 times forecast earnings for this year, which suggests to us it may be time to lock in some profits. Sell." http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2014/09/11/shares/news-and-analysis/optimal-payments-hits-the-jackpot-q14Im2qmd2VIB4nB0MMFeJ/article.html

Did you know Hedge fund Odey (no stranger to Admiral) have increased their short position again on the 5th September to the highest they've ever shorted Admiral to 1.2%? - which is significant. and shows serious intent. You can see in the chart a few days before their position is declared by the FCA the SP dropping as the acquired short shares were sold into the market. ACR 's position is still open from 25th July at 0.5% making a total short on Admiral of 1.7% What do they know?

Hmm 60p down today because of Ex-Dividend date. As I suspected - that's greater than the actual dividend. It might drop further to the 12th Sept (Recording date) - or not :) Whatever, looks like some may have been buying in since the 3rd Sept for the dividend as it rose sharply from that date - until today ex-divi day. Straight after this Fri close of the 12th it's in to the coundown to the referendum , so it's hit and miss if the SP will fully recover after ex-dividend date due to polls favouring the Yes vote. Then there's the outcome after the 18th. If it's a Yes vote, will all shares suffer (as was thought of Monday's fall)? 9 out of 10 of the individual markets on the LSEchcange today - are down - that'll be Scotland ahain, no doubt. Add to that the charts are not looking favourable towards the share plus interim lacklustre results, it's possible the SP could drift lower over the next fortnight. So, more downside risk than upside means I'll sit this one out and see which way the wind's blowing after the 18th.

Right, well the exchange rate for the last divi was @ 1.26645 so 12.5 cents = 9.87p Today it's @ 1.24489 so if that held, it would imply = 10.04p (a 1.7%+ increase on a like-for-like basis). Looking good. But if Scotland vote NO on the 18th, it might migrate back towards the July rate before the 22nd RNS is released.

" The announcement is scheduled for w/c 22/9/14." Annoyed with myself, searched everywhere for a date to no avail, but when you posted the above I thought THAT HAS to be in the public domain somewhere! Reread the RNS's again - and this time it jumped out at me. Doh! Should have gone to specsavers!

So all being well, an RNS early next week then, in which it advises of the ex dividend date? Noticed last time the SP dropped heavily from after the RNS release, almost as if it knew no bottom - but dropped to it's ultimate lowest point AFTER the ex dividend cut-off for registering. So 415/teens might only be availabe if you want to buy without the dividend. I'll be topping up again, if it drops low enough to tempt to me BEFORE the cut of ex dividend registration date :) Just nicely in time for the 'on average' seasonal Oct/Nov/Dec annual SP boost.

Yes ditto same here - for that divi on the 10th. What's not factored in though is by how much does ADM traditionally fall during ex-dividend period, because this time round it could prove more laborious to climb back from. That's what I'm debating right now. It's a nicely predictable share, but these winds of economic underperformancet... sometimes getting back from the ex-divi period price in conditions as ADM now find itself can take longer than traditional expectations. A fall to 1260's the other day, immediately followed back up to 1280's, less than a week before the ex-divi date period, and the SP is still in sub-MA area, suggesting it could linger a little longer at lower levels, means it's not so clear cut for me. Hmm. Decisions. Decisions.

Thanks for confirming, gsdog. Best dividend yield I've ever received from any share ever - period.

The dividend paid out on the 18th Aug was 12.5 eurocents, right? The small reduction in total value when I calculate it against shares held - is that because of additional currency conversion costs from Euro's into GBP's? - (M investment is held inside a tax wrapper - SIPP). - Or more because of the day and date you decide to calculate the conversion rates? (9. something p, when I checked it the other day - and bang on 10p per share when I checked today)

Thanks fior the link MJ84. It's summary opines: "...Over the next 3-6 months, we would expect the share price to reach 500p, providing capital gains as well as income...." The other month, someone below, offered an opinion that they confidently expected to see 500p by this September. - Hmm, looking less and less likely to me. I don't see it happening anywhere in September at all, from October onwards, yes maybe, but not this September. I'm that confident 500p won't be seen this September you can call me to be held to account. (There, that should increase the likelihood of the exact opposite occurring instead :)

gsdog - thanks for highlighting the EXTRAORDINARY volatility at GVC's ex-dividend time. Must admit, it shook me a bit, as I didn't expect THAT much movement. I had to quickly reread the Trading Update again as I was convinced the volatility hid something more serious than just ex-divi time. However it's measured, It's a lot of movement for ex-dividend time. I wonder if those debating buying more, earlier last month, were aware of the great opportunity that ex-dividend time made available to them? I expected a modest movement at ex-divi time - but wasn't prepared for this. Once again thanks for your timely reminder - in advance of it happening.

Spot on gsdog - Subsequent events are proving your analysis correct. I topped up at 429.something, the day before it dropped a further 9 pence. Think on this Ex Divi occasion you could have traded with success. Until this drop I was thinking September would have been the next best buying-in opportunity for long term stake building.

Thanks for the heads-up Bookman.

nickyg, google: DEALZ

I thought, no can't be a share doesn't move in the same direction either up or down for 10 days straight - that's unheard of, isn't? But I checked - and you're right - 10 days straight out back-to-back of falls. Not nice. Not nice at all. If at some point it does revisit the sub £3 area end with a 2 in front of the sp - I'll 'ave some. Part of this fall must also be attributed to the main indices falling all last week due to the problems in Iraq - it affected all markets. However the sp is only marginally down today. Think I'll set a limit-buy, in case I miss it. Haven't finished looking into Poundland yet, but long term, how does it grow profits once expansion reaches tipping point? - Reduce pack sizes for awhile; yes, but that can only go on for so long.

I think it was Ex-Tesco boss Sir Terry Leahy that threw me on this one. I didn't mean B&M - I've been hunting for 'Home Bargains'. They're independant - owned by TJMorris - and they're not interested in a floatation. A billion £ turnover organisation, Tom Morris runs it with some family members. B&M always looks dark, overcrowded isles and sort of just a little down at heel - but Home Bargains! H/Bargains, hygienically bright, wider isles, similar merchandise - but because of the environment it just sort of looks better. So no, I won't be buying B&M after all. As for Poundland, how do you increase profits as the years go by, if you can't charge more than a pound? As costs rise, pack sizes will get smaller until consumers start to notice. Maybe if they opened a chain called 'The 1&2 poundland' maybe, I don't know. Who cares? I'm out.

And a few hours later, after buying in, a little tick up :) :) :)