Member Info for Velo

Right, potentially really good news for tomorrow Thursday. Stocks closed well up in the US tonight - significantly up. Nasdaq up well over 2$ (2.4% !) All the other US indices just under and near to a 2% rise. That's mega! Those alone would "guarantee" a belting day here tomorrow, but in a few hours (well after midnight) China and the rest of the far east open up. They close tomorrow morning about 9:15am. It all hinges on them, on whether we get the reflective benefit of that US close or not. If it's not bad news from China by the time WE open, then the road is clear ahead as we will almost certainly be in line to see some really positive action tomorrow, Thursday.

Well, a day of nothing. It did close with a ' Long legged Doji ' candlestick, who's sole reason for existence is to tell of indecision. As in: "These doji reflect a great amount of indecision in the market......After a whole lot of yelling and screaming, the end result showed little change from the initial open. " So the market can't decide which way /what to do with RR.

All UK indices have opened down :( RR has opened down :( And I'm now off out to the dentist :( The only thing out of synch with that dismal lot, is it's sunny outside.

No pointers from the US. Down a couple of cents approx on my Disney. US indices overall are down, but within normal "boring" parameters. Still believe that Tuesday will be a positive day for RR. As I've posted somewhere below, by close of Friday, RR popped all the corks of all the indicators to trigger ( in the short term at least ) a buy for the immediate future. (But only a so-so buy; hence the upper 750p's outlook). Be really, really, surprised if RR is down the forthcoming week, as by end of week I'd be expecting to see some attractive positiveness out of it.

Since Black Monday, like most, I’ve been re-evaluating almost everything, and I‘ve come to the conclusion that on a timescale of a day trader being the shortest ‘investor’ to a long term investor being the longest, that in this mature and aging bull market that I‘m much more at ease being one notch below a long term investor (and should invest as I have been doing subconsciously of late) and embrace it fully - as that of a Position Trader. (In other words hold a position for years when necessary, just like a long term investor - but unlike a long term investor, selling and buying at general highs and general lows throughout the period of ownership of the same share). In the spring of LAST year, the fiercest rating of any broker issued against RR was by broker Deutsche Bank and their sell rating. They continued reiterating their sell rating and by May this year were touting 645p! Seeing as we touched 685p, in admittedly ‘special circumstances’ you might think they either got lucky or were on to something. Be that as it may, it was their latest “outrageous” sell rating on July 9th of 580p that transfixed me on Monday with fears of them getting it right as we hit the 680p’s that made a right mess of my attempt to buy back into RR. (Did so the following day at 729p - questionable given that I had more than adequate time on countless occasions to buy anywhere sub 720p almost at will for 2 days. Wondering how Deutsche Bank arrived at such an outrageous rating I took my starting point as the climax of RR’s sp at the very commencement of 2014 and drew extending parallel price lines and bingo, almost to the penny on the bottom channel line it extended to approx 590p - very similar to theirs! I have no idea how Deutshe arrived at such a ‘watch-out’ sp of 580p, but I've proven to myself it’s a worry not without foundation and something I am already taking account of in my holding whilst observing the sp future performance. (Incidentally the matching upper main trendline only returned a general, but measly 780p). I wish I could post of a possible sp of similar magnitude in the opposite direction to Deutshe’s shocking low, but a year and a half of overall decline have left that ball firmly in the ball park of the CEO coming up with the need of ransformative RNS‘s to achieve that. On the bright side, and at least for the short term, last Friday ended with RR ticking and triggering all the boxes of an official buy recommendation - in ALL broker’s offices, so I firmly expect Tuesday to show a positive sp performance.

Think that article is from Sat's Guardian. The journalist writing the article makes a definitive statement as fact, namely: "It also faces investor calls to be broken up following a series of profit warnings". (Last sentence at the end of Grayling's post). Investor calls ? ? ? Question: Who are these investors calling for RR to be broken up that the article is so sure about? Seriously, who? I'm not aware of any call from any notable investor of substance or representative body calling for such a thing. I'm aware of speculation that - that fate awaits RR should it fail to return to full health, but no calls for a break-up as part of the CEO's strategy. Strange the journalist should cite it as a known fact. The article does reference RR's now biggest holder, ValueAct Capital Management, a fund as most know, that is often in the practice of persuading companies they invest in to to that, most notably they tried it with Microsoft. But surely that comes under predatory opportunistic investment rather than as a direct response to RR investor calls - Is that it? A fund makes a big investment in RR and it becomes the word on the on the street (media street) for a break up of RR because of that investment act alone - that RR "investors" are now calling for RR to be broken up? With the media's love of the catch all soundbite, whatever next - "Latest on RR's attempt to stave off being broken up" ? ? ?

Yeah, Bank Holiday Monday. Been OCD'ing this week so much, what with this Black Monday, not taking in fully that it's Bank Holiday weekend! Work for me tomorrow, Sunday.

Days? Nah, remove the plural from days - and replace with just 'day'! No, not even one day - hours even - as 'deadwood' stocks in my portfolio, dead long before Black Monday, moved positively (upbeat interim RNS' out on one of them) all happened on Friday alone. Title should be from Pauper back to break even. Holdings all look okay now, but the losses have been long sold leaving their damage in the portfolio totals. Not after Friday though. A little profit yes, but more or less overall, back to break-even. Meaning at a wobbly knife edge!

Cont.......... If you take amongst the highest broker’s forecasts, then that can mean roughly only a 50% upside from today‘s sp. Anymore would mean profits far in excess before RR’s decline commenced.

Yes, what we’re all asking, Grayling - when is the overall picture going to turn positive for RR? Each to their own, so to that end I already have my own timetable and it’s this - If this new CEO comes up with the goods and does the business then let’s assume the timetable is within the timeframe he’s released in previous RNS’s. 1) He says 2016/17 before the turnaround is anywhere near complete. Not roaring back to full health at where we were before this longer term decline commenced - but the current rot sorted out by 2016/17 or at least a grip on events that have been out of control so far. 2) So for the next 18 months or so, the “positiveness” for the RR share price can only come from one source - each upbeat RNS detailing the progress made on the expense cut-backs program coupled with good news, if any, on winning new orders. To me that means each quarter, each six months will (or should I say ‘might‘) be plateau levels where the MM’s re-rate RR’s sp each time, based on each new update. A case of “show me the money - not fine words & promises.” We have not yet experienced a bona fide upbeat RNS, the last was regarded as “slightly better than expected” yet when the realisation crept in that it was still a huge, mega, 32% drop in profits - the sp dropped lower and lower as people realised a 32% drop in profits can’t be turned into upbeat news, however it’s presented to the media. What will happen when a truly upbeat RNS is released? We’re only a month or so gone from the worst ever “bottom” RNS. The good ones are still to come. Which means in-between each of those quarterly/ half yearly interim reports, there may well be fun and games of ‘controlled’ volatility with the SP. within a predetermined price channel of min/max sp volatility - until the next trading update comes along. Whatever happens each interim - if positive - it should have a beneficial effect on that in-between period of volatility with the sp. 3) So assuming all goes as planned by the CEO, what’s the maximum from here to the possible upside we can foresee - if all goes well by the end of 2017 onwards? I say a maximum of “only” 50% upside from this point ie., mid 700p‘s (I know, describing 50% up as “only” lol!) by the end of the next couple of years - after that if RR was “back to normal” you’ve then got to wonder if these Black Monday times are not the beginning of the end of this long running bull market - as it will almost certainly be so, by then - and a whole new set of problems for every UK company. I say 50% because where was the sp at maximum over the last year or so - £10? £11? £12? If you take amongst the highest broker’s current forecasts (when have they ever been right? lol) then that can mean roughly only a 50%

Well, what a close on Friday. The low WAS Monday after all. Looking good for this coming Monday, although I don’t think it will get past the 750p’s. If it’s a really good day, maybe touching the high 750p’s ie., 758p max. And can’t believe my portfolio at end of Friday - it’s like Black Monday never happened. Not only have I got all my money back, my portfolio is in better shape now than before Black Monday started! Bonus or what!?! It’s like B/Monday never happened. And because of RR's performance on Friday, I no longer fit my “definition” of ahem …. a ‘long term’ investor in RR. - I’m an investor with a position in RR (lol). Still haven’t finished evaluating what all this means. Still harbour some black thoughts about what this Black Monday means for the future - for all investors, best not to count the chickens just yet then.

Friday tomorrow, so why not finish the week off with tomorrows Support and Resistance points and see what happens? If it's a continuation of another good day then first resistance to overcome is 734p. If it manages that, and we're on a roll, then it has to see if it can tackle and break 739p On the other hand if it all changes direction and it's back to a heads south day, then it first has to break through 721p and if it wants to behave more badly it'll need to smash through 725p support point.. Let battle commence! :)

Woops - Double typo! (I've been up since 4:00am) Must have been after hours trading in the US - it's now showing as closed at $102 and thus 7% up.

Typo! Been a long day. it was $95 - therefore only 6% up.

"....I am in no danger of dumping the 600 rr. I now hold in favour of Disney. Isn't there all that exchange rate stuff and taxes and deductions from divis and what not to worry about with this foreign listed stuff...." -------------------------- 600 in RR? Pretty certain you posted of selling your holding in RR as the funds were needed elsewhere. When did you buy back in? Yep, the exchange rate and US costs can be horrendous. No tax on divis. In fact I don't pay tax on any of my divis whatsoever. Never have done. It's in my SIPP not my ISA. - hence free of all tax on divis. PS: That second top up of Disney for $90 on Monday closed tonight at over $101 - 12% up in 3 days, bringing my total Disney holding to now only 2%x down. Pleased as punch. but will volatility take that gain back in a matter of days?

Out all day so using phone excuse mangled wrds. Final sentence of my last post - "and if it's a really good day final resistance point to overcome will be 731p" It's that sp now and has been more or less all morning. Bladdy hell. Didn't envisage that in one clear leap. Talk about volatility.

Whatever, here are tomorrow's support and resistance points based on tonight's close. (Well, you have to hold on to something when adrift in the ocean) - WILL POST SEPARATELY AS THIS MIGHT NOT ALL FIT IN ONE POST. First support point is 706p and if it's a really bad day then next is 699p (Honest to god, wrote of 699p below, well before getting the support data. Wrote the post - went for a quick cuppa before the data mining - returned to do that and saw Q/Elvis's post so answered that - then got the support points. So there it is - a warning writ large 699p just as I roughly guesstimated below but didn't want to see on the cards as a poss... (A lucky guesstimate) By the way these support and resistance points are not my personal opinions they are set in stone, the same for anyone who's into such stuff) Anyway, after that self-shock - the resistance points are - 723p and if it's a really good day final resistance point to overcome will be 731p I'm done! Time to turn in - after a wee bite.

Righty. Quick mini review of today whilst we're in this err... 'crisis'. The SP had already touched 708p (Wasn't really aware of it at the time as the sp was yo-yoing from hour to hour during the morning session) long before I switched on the computer and posted of not wanting to see a close less than the lower support of 707p. So closing @ 716.5p appears (on this occasion) to imply that the two support points held up their reason-for-being, which was to support the sp at those points meaning only a serious mass onslaught of bears would be able to take the sp lower. The fact that the intra-day low was almost tested but failed to break the lower 707p support point, is a moment of quiet pleasure for longs. The end of day closing price of 716.5p is similarly a moment of upbeat contemplation as it rests ABOVE the first support point of 715p not on it, nor marginally below it, but above it. If that continues then..…. : ) ( if ) Volume trades show there was virtually nothing between the buys and sells (bulls and bears) so the bears were there in insufficient numbers to drive the price lower. Right or wrong, that's how I see today. However (there's always a "however" isn't there?) from Friday's close of 735p it closed on Monday @ 719p and Tuesday only lifted slightly to 724p to then continue the gentle decline today with a drop to 716.5p. See where I'm going with this? The SP has been taken down in small increments. So small, that the Relative Strength Index remains above the danger line, but also remains bouncing along that floor, unable to lift clear, but still just above it at just over RSI 31 tonight. Incredibly the miniscule dip below RSI 30 on Black Monday is but a pinprick on charts and you have to zoom in like crazy to see it at all. Didn't expect that for end of day Black Monday did you? Indicating that RR is trying like crazy to move sideways, fall no further, and prepare for movement in the opposite direction. Anyway, it doesn't matter if the bears don't drive the sp into a serious decline if they can chip away at it on alternate days. Who are the bears? I dunno; take your pick - legions of panicky PI's? Newly set stop-loss limits being breached? Institutional fund investors? Day traders? Speculators - whatever. Even though the support levels are not being breached, the slightly lower end-of-day closing sp resets the next day's support and resistance points. So the sp could drop on a steady basis without disturbing the relative strength of the sp if it's done steadily, slowly. In other words, one could claim a small victory in that each day's support points have not been breached only to find a week later, the same thing is still being said at say 699p! Whatever, here are tomorrow's support and resistance points based on tonight's close. (You have to hold on to something when adrift in the ocean) - WILL POST SEPARATELY AS THIS MIGHT NOT ALL FIT IN ONE POST.

" Well Velo you are a man of mystique and intrigue. I have no idea what share you were trading/investing in in the US in your earlier little anecdote. " ------------------- DISNEY (Dis) ! It's 30 year track record is a mirror image of RR's last 30 years of non-stop roar of success - well it was until I invested in it ! Just checked, it's back up tonight finishing 4 or 5% up today at $99 Bought as a top-up on Black Monday's final 20 minutes) Bringing my average down to $105, which I'm more than pleased with now. Not too keen on innocently mentioning other holdings in my portfolio on non-specific b/boards for fears of accusations of self-interest ramping etc., etc., (Althought a US stock shouldn't be in easy reach of the average PI as you need paperwork clearance in the UK before they'll let you buy). Every time you read of a good British company falling under the spell and control of a US fund etc., just think of me doing it back to them :) :) :) It's why I'm late posting tonight nearly bought another two I'd previously owned and did well out of, but decided to be a bit more patient. One of them comes under the futuristic "Internet of Things" (Just Google that phrase if yoiu've never heard of it before - it's all that stuff when Tom Cruise in the future walks past billboards and adverts and it displays his name and face and things he likes (Minority Report was it?) It's here already - buy something oin the internet and watch similar ads pop up on every site you visit. Annoying as hell.

"Is that your definition of somebody else's? " I prefer the above first posting line. It's my re-definition of somebody else's definition. Some cynical financial journo in some publication the other year was expressing his view that certain 'story' shares contained more long term investors who up until that point had previously been short term traders, day traders and speculators, but were now calling themselves long term investors purely because their trades in those shares had gone bad on them, and they could no longer afford to sell yet another of their 'mistakes'. I laughed like a drain upon reading it and thought it applied to a far wider range of investors than that, as it had a ring of truth to it.