Member Info for Velo

Yes, for two years running there's been a trading update on exactly the same published date of 26th February for each year. In the year before that, it was the first week in March. So be in a highly expectant mood from the final days of February onwards, if they haven't already been released before then, due to last weekend's press speculation. Last update reported that trading results would be, quote : "greater than market expectations". Take into account that those who preferred to take their own passport photos have already been doing so for years and yet despite that, the guidance is to expect results greater than market expectations.

And thank you in return Chequemate, for posting that review in full. All holders can do - is solicit as many views as possible as this is nothing to do with current (or forecast) fundamentals. In fact there’s nothing ‘wrong’ with the fundamentals - it’s all about guessing the future of a main constituent part of the company. Harder than it first appears. Easy to conclude the digital online future will impact passport photo booths badly in the UK. Sounds a reasonable forecast, huh? But will it for absolutely sure? - Definitely? I just don’t know. Consider: The digital future was supposed to consign records/LP’s to history. Virtually everyone agreed it would. But look at the latest sales figures for LP’s - now outselling digital downloads and discs - the whole lot! Official. Who’d have thought it, when everyone was all CD mad, then downloading mad, and everyone was throwing out their LP collections as not fit for purpose in the new digital landscape? If a similar question was asked in the late 1980’s about what would be the greatest growth sector for the next 20 to 30 years as regards share price growth - a lot would plump for a very reasonable and “obvious” technology sector - only to get destroyed in the dot.com 2000 bubble crash. Engineering then? Nope. Back then (1989/1990) virtually 99.9% would have laughed had you said the greatest growth sector in SP growth for the next 20 to 30 years will be old fashioned, totally unhealthy and getting regulated out of existence - tobacco stocks - which it was - and also the greatest SP growth sector in that time bar none. Not hundreds - but thousands of percent up! So much for reasonable & intelligent “it’s obvious” forecasting. Bit like it was “obvious” Trump would lose, or economists predicting we would all be in the poor house straight after the Brexit vote. (Still might - but the economists were ”certain” the economy would crater immediately in 2016 - when all figures subsequently showed the economists forecasts to be catastrophically incorrect). As a result I’ve read since, that the economist’s profession is in a state crisis because so much of their forecasting, was so wrong. Experts can’t help here. Ordinary man-in-the-street can’t help either. So instead I’m judging the management’s track record (the CEO’s ability in this instance) to maybe pull off some kind of tobacco/LP‘s-is-dead reversal in PHTM’s chosen fields of operation, should photo booths go the way of the Dodo. In the meantime the divi is a very consoling, above the market average, of 3.9% And I’m nothing if not, first and foremost a divi man by choice. - And I still have no idea what the future will hold for photo booths.

Between sub 650p and 600p based on last 13 months price actions - probably before end of February.

The pros and cons also well summed up here - http://www.damiancannon.com/blog/photo-me-international-in-a-supermarket-near-you/

I was thinking that. It's taken the fierceness out of the retrace already. The RNS is having none of the weekend's media gloom whatsoever.

...the new government rules easing the use of passport photos by mobile phone were introduced last year. The Times, Mirror etc., all reporting on this change only this weekend, here's the link to the one by Mail On Sunday: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4144232/amp/New-rules-let-travellers-use-phone-photos-passports.html

Jolly good timing m/100. It just about crossed over and became oversold the day before you sold and is flirting just on the border of that area now. So a retrace of some sort is on the cards, imminently.

EDIT Correction. NOT 10%+ Meant to say 15%+ as in.... .... "Whatever - I expect to see a small 15%+ gain upside max, from here on...."

# On the other hand, for buyers at this level, the yield of the dividend is now just over 3.8% # Over THIRTEEN times the average long term volume today! - Repeat 13 times ! ! ! Have you ever?!? So nothing fickle about today's 3% rise. # SP just coming out of being technically oversold and 'trying' to revitalise. # I'd say it's now at the bottom end of the declining longer term channel and in coming days/weeks should see it gravitate to the upper end of the declining channel - circa roughly 240/ maybe 250p before meandering again. # Current malaise is one of the inherent risks to be accepted in buying a small MCap share that depends on buying growth from acquisitions rather than from predominately organic growth. Whatever - I expect to see a small 10%+ gain upside max, from here on. - After that, not so inspiring - unless some macro event unforseen at this point occurs by then..

Oh noooo! Agrrrhh! The curse words. Someone's uttered them. You must retract them Grayling - for the good of all.

That last bit was supposed to read "in sheer £££'s." Tsk! mobile phone predictive text :)

Well today is the first day of all the shares tidied up in the portfolios and running free. Technicals are positive so outlook is good over the short term. I'm looking at my holding and chuckling at being seriously overweight in PHNX now. Was overweight beforehand but even more so now. Feels rather uncomfortable but console myself with looking forward to a huge divi in sheer ££££'s.

Re: Share dilution mentioned below. Have decided to postpone my personal views on possibilities and variants on that subject. --------------------------------------- 2nd day after the announcement and most pleasing to see the SP holding up well. Technicals are sunny side up. Looking good. I'm not prepared to introduce worst case share-dilution scenarios at this stage as everything appears to be going tickety-boo vis-a-vis the SP in regards to the positive market reaction to the R/Issue announcement. Been reading the experiences of a still active high calibre chief analyst for a world reknowned brokerage house who admits that funding for equity research has been cut to the bone apart from FTSE100 companies, letting research assistants go never to be replaced etc., etc., and therefore also admits to occasionally reading bulletin boards for nuggets of info they don't have staff/time to research themselves; which is an utterly appalling admission. Like we didn't know those brokers forecasts are always way out! - So no way on earth am I introducing negatives. Seriously, it's all looking good at the mo' isn't? Go for it! :)

Thanks; Your welcome :) Also got a bit to say on the effects of "share dilution" will have (if any) in the meantime to-your-calculators and see if we all come up with the same figure :) but off out now., so will post later on that. ------------------- The offer is open to all shareholders on the register as at 24th October. The actual Rights Issue opens/launches the next day Tues Oct 25th where holders can buy 7 shares for every 12 already held @ 508p per share. Shareholders will have approx a week and half to decide as the offer deadline closes at noon on November 4th. Not sure how long the administration of the issue takes after that date for them to tie up loose ends and the new shares are admitted to the share register. Might be a little after that date or the next day. They'll RNS it, no doubt - but for all intents and purposes it's all over, done and dusted, after 4th November.

First bought @ 737p in 2014 but swing traded it when it hit 900p taking profits and re-bought much lower. But not low enough, when I'd finished a year or so had gone by and I found myself holding 3 times my budgeted holding per share with an average of 827p. Somewhere along that time it retraced to 770p or so, but I'd spent enough and let it be to enjoy the divi's (my now primary objective investment method). With this rights issue I contemplated selling half now and taking up the right's issue with the remainder but couldn't believe how my average would drop from a current 827p to just 710p if I took up the r/issue with my current holding, meaning approx £1k in divi's per year at current divi-payment rates. So going to hold even more, as my average holding portfolio per share is rising anyway. -------------------- In my experience in other rights issues I've been involved in, I've found there will be respectable funds with an ulterior motive of who tell Phoenix yeah we'll help you out and underwrite it - only to see them sell £gazillions flooding the market within weeks/month of the rights completion (sometimes they race other funds to sell, who also want a quick buck in their pockets, for an instant profit boost to their accounts, with the effect of hitting the SP for six, for the rest of longer term holders, bit it only lasts temporarily in companies held in reasonable esteem by the market.. So I won't be surprised to see the SP to drop temporarily in the weeks/month AFTER completion of the rights issue - but I'm in :) :) :) PS. Companies that launch rights issues where the market consensus is that it thinks it's needed just to plug holes in a weak balance sheet get the SP hit big time by the market. Today's end of day SP on PHNX indicates to me that the market LIKES this offer.

Was quite unprepared for the RSi reading when I looked at this. Was thinking it would be sub RSi30 (it's been just under that for about a week now which is technically oversold) perhaps RSi23 or maybe something like RSi17which - but I've never seen anything like it - tonight it's RSi2.4 I mean I've seen as low as RSi7 - but RSi2.4 !?! That means there's virtually no one left to sell! Apart from the bod you people on here must be the only shareholders left in the world holding Craw LOL! RSi2.4 ! Single figures! Unbelievable. The RSi scale by the way, finishes at zero. Very, very, weak blame-shifting comments in the RNS - which interprets as a mealy-mouthed: "We haven't got a clue how this happened" can see a new CEO on the cards - and soon. Huuuuge gap down on opening too. And you know what they say about gaps? - They must be filled. I was expecting RSi

Oh! Just catching up with the other posts and I see you posted earlier that you are aware of the tipsheet that tipped this. With you mentioning RNS etc., it led me to believe you were curious as to why the rise. The tipsheet doesn't just tip it - it gives it's fundamental reasons for tipping it. So yes there's more than just the power of influence of the tipsheet at work here. It's brought what ALT is up to - to a much wider investing audience than it's enjoyed so far. Do you want a negative amongst all this (was going to say hype - but there is no hype; there are positive reasons for the rise) - It's technically entered overbought territory because it's Relative Strength Index now reading RSi 93 !!!!! That's way over RSi70 by a country mile. But such is the support for this share I don't see a nasty retrace for a long while yet. But it must return below 70 at some point for peace of mind.

Alright, alright, DRichi - It falls to me to put you out of your misery as to the reason for the sudden out of character SP rise. Yes, there IS a reason for sure, and it's this - It was highly tipped as a buy in a subscription-only tip sheet that came out on the weekend. And you're 100% percentage gain only adds up if you bought during Friday or before that, of last week. Which doesn't hold quite same cache as '100% gain in just over a day'. So it closed at 22p on Friday. It opened at 29p/31p to buy or thereabouts first thing Monday morning and closed at 34.5p by close last night, Monday. So even if you bought first thing Monday morning it's nowhere near 100% - yet (but it will no doubt in due course :) So if you bought anytime THIS week the lowest you could have got in for would have been approx 31p - a truly impressive gain to date, yes, but not quite 100% yet - if bought any time this week so far.

:) :) Nothing is ever 100% reliable all the time, the best that can be hoped for, is to be reliable - the greater majority / most of the time, rather than unreliable most of the time. Quite impressive the show of strength for support round the lower 180p+ area. Currently, after that show of support, the worst that might be contemplated might just be a rangebound vacillation between 180p -192p until fresh news emerges (hopefully positive). Early days, so nothing ruled out yet.

Cont: So it OPENED out of the blue at 190/191p for the first 10 or 15 minutes as best I can make out then about then fell off a cliff in an instant to roughly 182p - which turned out to be a support level as it is was the lowest of the day. You can then see the bargain hunters coming in as the price started rising throughout the day with little retraces now and then but slowly crawled up to close at 185p (and thus a RED down volume registered on all charts because the SP closed lower than it opened - despite more buyers than sellers!) Which brings me to the second point of perhaps positiveness for you to consider, and it’s this: For a bad day 11% fall it steadily climbed back and was STILL climbing by close - not falling (As C/Mate said he was hoping it would make it back a little higher; well looking at the chart it’s no assumption to say that was looking on the cards. This is where the strength of greater buyers than sellers was telling from that 8:15am/8:30am low - it never went back down there and slowly made a modest headway up to 185p. Take comfort from that E/Paul. The question now is: Will these bargain hunter buyers return next week - or was that it? Because they did drive the price up all the way up from 8:30pish onwards until the end of day. One other thing. Something that (on this occasion only) has now rattled my certainty of big falls like this always continue for some days after before halting - Candlesticks. Ultra short term Candlesticks say MCS is still a buy - according to candlesticks Japanese Candlesticks have been in use for 300 years (originally in rice markets :) so they'd have been binned by now if they didn't get things right more often than not. - yet on almost all other technical metrics (including red volume they say what my original post opined - this isn’t the end of the fall. Perhaps Candlesticks are simply wrong on this occasion? Whatever, not long now to see what the next step are to be. ----------------------- Geez look at the time. Time I turned in for the day.