Member Info for Velo

A final snippet for Famertally - ".....Interestingly, students from Cornell University using the Beneish M-score correctly identified Enron as an earnings manipulator, while experienced financial analysts failed to do so....."

Juxtapose - I was more highlighting that the LSE have no interest in identifying shorters because none are holding over 0.5% of the share issued. There isn't a single one with that much at the moment. That's not to say there aren't dozens and dozens "hiding" from view, free from scrutiny by only shorting up to 0.49% each of the stock. In some shares I've owned, it's several percent for each hedge fund shorter (Carillion holds the wooden sppoon as at one time being the most shorted company on the UK stockmarket with a record breaking 22% of it's issued shares in the hands of shorters. No one single Hedge Fund shorter has a big position in AMER at the moment.

Hee hee you'd be right to regret asking. Just caught your post Farmertally; got to be up for 4:00am tomorrow, so just time for a quick post - And yes you'll need the bicarbonate, in fact it would make my eyes bleed if I even tried to understand how the Beneish's M-score calculates. It comes free with one of my screen filtering subscriptions as do all three professors work I originally quoted from. As I've happily invested without learning of the Beneish M-score exsistence until last year (I've always been aware of the other two; Investor's Chronicle and the like) it's easy to make it go away. Just ignore it and use your own analysis. I glance at them for new company's then do my own analysis. It's showing an 86% high likelyhood that Amer is manipulating the earnings. All AIM companies have less stringent accounting so it is a concern to which I have yet to find an answer to the accusation. (Tesco did it with manipulating the accounts the other year, didnt they - who'd have thought that of them? Police fraud investigation still in force against 3 of those directors I believe). So it's a matter of using your own judgement - as I'm not really into the "Beneish M-Score" it's something that's just there waiting to confirm some cognitive bias to kick I suppose, if one develops suspicions. Too early in the game for me to offer any views on Amer. If you Google the term: "Beneish M-score" You'll get something like the following come up: What is the 'Beneish Model' The Beneish model is a mathematical model that uses financial ratios and eight variables to identify whether a company has manipulated its earnings. The variables are constructed from the data in the company's financial statements and, once calculated, create an M-Score to describe the degree to which the earnings have been manipulated. BREAKING DOWN 'Beneish Model' The eight variables are: 1. DSRI - Days' sales in receivable index 2. GMI - Gross margin index 3. AQI - Asset quality index 4. SGI - Sales growth index 5. DEPI - Depreciation index 6. SGAI - Sales and general and administrative expenses index 7. LVGI - Leverage index 8. TATA - Total accruals to total assets Once calculated, the eight variables are combined together to achieve an M-Score for the company. An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Russell @ "...The thing with chartists is that if they can convince enough people that their theories are right, then they become self fulfilling...." - Oh god, for myself, I hope not. No convincing of others by me that "their theories are right". No, I want to make money - not be right. Then again I'm hoping to change my habits of a lifetime and abide by my self-imposed resolution for 2018 of not to over-post, so shouldn't be an issue. I've found that posting on forums can take up far too much time. Better to be sparse - which hitherto I've not been - posting can become addictive! The SP is still in a strong uptrend, so I'm probably well wrong in musing: is a small retrace on the cards "in mere days". In fact I'm probably guilty of shooting-off my opinion far too early. Not bothered either way; as you say - it's just a personal opinion. Should have just opined with a more a vague "soon-ish" and left it at that. SP movement is never like the edge of a ruler; there's always zig-zagging, whipsawing, on it's chosen trajectory :)

Intrigued by several mentions of shorters in posts on here, so had a quick looksee - and they've all but sunk below the radar as of this current moment. If they were a problem - they aren't at present and are absent in any significant quantity any more. Can only can see official ' visible ' history of hedge fund shorters for the first time from 4th April 17 onwards with 0.52% of the shares, by GSA Capital Partners they then increased slightly other the summer as follows below until they started closing some of their positions until eventually falling below the regulatory reporting benchmark of 0.5% on the 25th September, reducing down to 0.49% which thus, then escapes having to notify the LSE authorities. So they may well be present (and any others all under the half a percent cut-off reporting limit) but in insignificant amounts, as LSE are showing ' significant ' shorters with positions against AMER as Nil currently. But on the face of it, it does appear that the sole main hedge Fund shorter of note (GSA) is of no consequence as of January 2018. Fund % Short Date changed GSA Capital Partners LLP 0.49% 25 Sept 2017 GSA Capital Partners LLP 0.53% 20 June 2017 GSA Capital Partners LLP 0.60% 13 April 2017 GSA Capital Partners LLP 0.52% 4 April 2017

Oops - final sentence cut off mid way...... " Anyway, overall a reasonable clean bill of health - but not yet a highly rated company (probably because of that long term down trend?) "

Found this share by sheer accident. Clicked on a poster's history on another site and saw one post from December recommending this share to another poster saying it was about to rise. Dubious, I took a peak and was surprised that their "forecast" has proved to be spot on. Well done there. Anyway did a little more digging and here are my initial findings (If you're long of many a year in this share it should be old hat to you). First, The SP of this share has been in a long term retrace, since the summer of 2014 - with many a spike along the way of which this current rally is the latest "spike". I hope this rally continues for longs but I'm afraid the long term down trend is strong and has yet to cross to the upside. Not saying it can't - just that on longer term viewing of the price action this current trend is nowhere near denting the longer term down trend (yet). Secondly it is, right now, currently in a short term uptrend - so Yaay! This uptrend commenced round about Christmnas week and has been gloriously strong and healthy ever since. However, I'm of the opinion it has days, maybe weeks at most, before it reverts back in to a downtrend (not months, but probably days - because it's overbought (and been overbought since Wednesday). It's not that highly overbought so may have some way to continue rising yet (weeks) but I'm guessing not weeks, but mere days at most. Personally I'm thinking of taking a punt if it dips back down into the high teens So there it is - it's in an uptrending rally right now, but an uptrend that's happened countless times since the summer of 2014 and I expect it revert to the mean average unless you have strong fundamentals that will shove all that I've just said off the table and into the bin :) Couple of fundamentals - It has a terrific PEG - Below 1.0 is desirable; well AMER is currently showing 0.11 - so yay again! It has a brilliant score on the Piotroski overall state of the busines score of 7 (Highest is 9) another yay! On the Altman risk of bankruptcy score it's well clear and showing another clean bill of health, so all good there too. Forard PE ratio is a modest value laden PE 10 - still all good. And showing a reported 56% sales growth by mid 2017 - beat that :) And this I had to double check because I can hardly believe it - a 1,500%+ increase in Earning Per Share growth (EPS) forecast for the coming full trading year 2018 ! ! ! All good eh? However just one niggly thing - it scores terribly on the Bennish Earnings Manipulation Risk - in fact the surmising of that littkle thing concludes the risk of manipulation in reported earnings is "High". Not good. Could be reasons for that - so I hope those of you that dig into balance sheets and things will be able to dismiss it as coincidental figures (any members of the BOD with previous in prior companies?) Anyway, overall a reasonable clean bill of health - but not yet a highly rated co

A nice positive day today, for the SP?

Right, final post of the night - My personal opinion? Possibly retracing to not much worse than the 60's with a reasonable to high risk of the ultimate floor being in the mid 50's before the SP starts "correcting" and making its way out of Oversold territory. No matter what - can't see it dropping below 50's under any circumstances whatsoever (if it ever retrtaces to that area in the first place of course). All, only IMO.

Tsk! Gone midnight - what a time to start researching!!! LOL! Something of note, the SP has gone, in one day, from "middling" along at a pleasant average relative strength to just over and into oversold territory. So as of tonight IT IS oversold. Checking the price action over the years, incredibly MOSB has not been oversold once, since 2014!!! But before then - countless times of numerous occasions of being oversold; and a lot of those occasions (a lot) quite deep. Mind you, it only just has stepped slightly over into oversold - just a smidgen, dancing on the edge, so to speak. So if it's intent on mirroring the big oversoilds of yesteryear then quite a bit of retrace to come could be on the cards yet, before correcting - but who's to say for sure? Just an opinion. See what the media analysts make of that RNS in the coming days,

Small adjustments??? Well yes, I agree, but was the market expecting SO MANY small adjustments in this downward adjustment RNS to previously issued guidance to the market? The small adjustments in isolation are: "... against a very challenging consumer backdrop .....but due to lower footfall than anticipated during December, particularly in stores, .....the business expects to report a full year profit before tax performance within a range of �6.5m to �6.8m, which is slightly below current market expectations. ...Like for like total sales for the first 23 weeks of the second half were -0.1% lower than last year. ....Hire sales.... were -3.6% on a like for like basis. Whilst down on the previous year, hire sales did improve on the previously reported first half performance, which was -8.4% below H1 last year. ..... Overall, gross margins for the 23 weeks of the second half fell by -3.0% on last year. A fall of -0.7% was seen in the first half of the year. .....against a backdrop of weaker consumer demand and increasing cost headwinds ....as we enter 2018. Given that we expect these challenging retail conditions to continue for the foreseeable future...." Net result of all that is a one day fall of 16% ! Given that the PE ratio is 16 going on (Forward PE15) is it fair to say that the PE will have to come down somewhat after so many negatives in one RNS? - So maybe more retrace on the cards??? - But Ooh that 7% dividend yield is tempting, and this company has been around more than most shares listed on the stock exchange... hmmm. What are next supports? - A couple in the 60's before the first in the 50's at 57-ish. Tempting,.... :) especially as there ARE some positives in the RNS update but with a 16% drop today the market has gone into cardiac shock at that RNS! Question: How far will it fall before the market is sated and extracted its pounbd of flesh for that RNS?

Not just the last 12 months or so Lummox but now 2017 trading has closed that's the last 24 months his funds have performed worse than the typical private investor. Woodford maintains it's the market that's got it wrong and not his selections. If you believe him then hold his funds for 5 years. His style of investing is out of vogue currently. It will come back into fashion no doubt - but in interview after interview to deny responsibility and say you are right and the market is wrong ..... well his results speak for themselves with that "it's not my fault" attitude.

The big drop in the SP today - well over 2% drop, that's a lot. I'm assuming the market probably didn't like a profit producing part of GVC being given away "free". Secondly they probably weren't expecting all shareholders to receive uninterrupted dividends, nor have future planned dividends pencilled in as progressive. What other reason could there be? Anyone? They'll get over it when they realise Kenny has ulterior motives and hasn't succumbed to one of those seasonal Christmas Movie feel-good moments where the lead character rushes out dispensing expensive gifts to all and sundry because it's the season of goodwill.

Thinking about it from the buyer's point of view - why should the buyer pay a fee for the Turkish business? GVC wants, no NEEDS to cease operation and pronto of trading in Turkey or it could impact the Ladbrokes deal -Turkey Is now a deal breaking liability. All the buyer had to do was wait for GVC to cease trading in Turkey and pick up the slack for free. This way the Turkish customers/punters will not be left high and dry and the change-over should happen seamlessly from the Turkish punters point of view, leaving goodwill in the departing GVC brand name. The buyer held all the cards. The buyer knew if no buyer could be found GVC would cease operations over there, regardless. KA just wants it like - Gone! No comebacks - just gone.

23 RNS notices released today. I assume "they" refers to GVC as it appears that the BOD have rescinded the terms by which the payment for that business is received , now they buyer is not being held to the terms of the agreement. Guess KA didn't want the Turkish business winging its way back into GVC control - so he's released the buyer from all caveats. So it would "appear" that the Turkish business has been given away for free. However, dividends WILL be maintained and paid with the latest being the period up to 31st December to be paid sometime in new year and all future dividends described to be as "progressive". So good news for divi only shareholders.

PS Neil Woodford is no longer considered an "expert". His funds have been crap this past year. Even I am beating all his funds as is the average investor, so poorly has Woodford performed in recent years. Where was his vision for his own funds if he knows what's going to happen?

"All the experts" have been saying that for years now and have entered Broken Clock syndrome. Just a couple of more years then the experts can claim 'See, we were right all along'. I'll give you one right now (a prediction) you are going to die. Can't be more specific but according to insurance stats probably in your eighties. Now I just have to keep reminding you week in, werk out, until it happens then you can be overwhelmed by how I knew you were going to die all along. The FTSE by long term CAPE measurements is not overvalued. It may well retrace but by CAPE measurements not in crash territory - the 2000 and 2009 crashes all broke outside the CAPE metrics. (CAPE is fundamentals by the way not TA).

I checked there to see if it was a link within a post on ADFVN but couldn't find anything. There was a post there that more or less said similar to what I posted, but clearly remember reading it online in some media report.

Can't find it right now, but recently, a few weeks ago, during the speculation over Ladbrokes (probably to throw the interviewer off the scent) KA admitted to the interviewer that in his opinion you shouldn't rule out, that someone might make a takover bid for GVC itself! He didn't sound negative the way he said it either. He sounded .... well - sort of smiley and happy to say it. Will try and root around and see of I can find it.

Would love it if GVC brand name reversed into rebranding everything as Ladbrokes (dropping the Coral) as GVC as a brand name carries no cache with the wider public, whereas there's eons of brand awareness to the name Ladbrokes.