Member Info for Velo

"Good lord, what a load of rubbish and that's you advising the Chick or Geezer named Megan?" You'd have been fine had you ended that sentence with a full stop after the word rubbish, because that makes it a legitimate opinion. The latter part of your assertion however is factually incorrect. I'm not offerring advice. I'm stating my highly personal opinion. If you trawl through, you will see the poster mentioned, had asked an open question of: "..question is does anyone think that this is a buy now..." So that's what I posted - what I THINK of the stock as a buy now. Simples. It's not advice. It's a personal opinion piece. ----------------------- I seem to be getting the request you made to me, this time about Saga, on an increassing rate. I'm starting to get snowed under. I will reply to your request about Saga - but won't bore the folks on here who have no interest in it - but will post it on the Saga forum. Might be some days yet before you get a response from me, as busy. Only sitting down to my supper now after this - and it's pushing 11pm!

Megan, you say you've traded up from a previous low point to what appears a significant profit; well done :) So your antenna must be telling you something for you to raise your query at this particular juncture. Because the SP had only just ever so slightly entered oversold condition on Friday, tonight's close sees the SP flirting on the border back out of oversold condition (IMO) to close just proud and out of oversold, lying right on the borderline. So it could easily with the slightest movement tomorrow drift back below. But it will make a breakout at some point. Has to - oversold is where seller exhaustion occurs. I am/was expecting the oversold condition to last between 2 weeks to a month, as it's trendlines are still full-on bearish and haven't yet crossed to the upside. But after today's close I'm not that confident in saying so. In fact it's signalling an indecisive movement today. Decision time. Gun to head, I'm leaning towards the SP 'faking' coming out of what would be a very brief oversold condition as it's still heavily in bearish trendlines and therefore I'm forced to conclude it's not safe yet to say it's on the cusp of rising out of this retrace. Could be wrong but I can't move until it confirms a break out, which obviously would neccesitate the SP being somewhat higher than tonight's close. Something as a trend follower I have to live with. It's a delicate balance at the moment.

After the past week's crap from the US market's behaviour, closing the week at 199p, is probably not to bad an outcome. The US markets permitting, I expect some respite by this time next week onwards for the SP.

Right, 16p? interesting. Been waiting patiently for this. But not buying. Hope I can get my first bite of the cherry next week @ circa 15p Maybe / maybe not :) Knew there was a short window (pardon the pun) between February and April only - to get a bargain entry. April is the cut-off point. You need your position in lock-down before April hoves into view for obvious reasons. Like a lot of SP's currently and indexes at the moment it's just stepped over the step into oversold condition. But in Amer's case only as of from today. So you can almost plot the SP ending its bearish run to the next fortnight or more probably to a month, at most. Will maybe drift lower in the meantime or become rangebound within this area all IMO; but would like 15p then if all is as RNS and what others have said, April will be the first Trading Update that bins the jam-tomorrow sticker stuck to Amer. If not, 15p is as good a place as any to recover from, until the market does accept the trading updates. It's really worth 24p today, right now, and it isn't - it's 33% below that, so there's that to recover first of all, nice - then what will it be worth after April? :)

Could see 17.4p elsewhere (also with the 15 minute delay) but not here. Currently the market is offering a higher price to sellers of Amer than it is for buyers. An anomaly but my broker's page is still displaying that anomaly but highlighting the "anomaly". Never ever figured that out. It's usually blamed on current volatility. But is also because there's a shortage of stock and therefore the market is offering you more to sell up?

Hee hee, No, but I do now. (Crossed my mind but posted before that thought had time to cross). Kudos for not winging it on the back of the markets falling dramatically. You could easily have said: "That's what I'm talking about" :) Bet everyone here is way overweight in GVC (I am) and wondering on the best course of action, hold, top-slice, or sell the lot and buy back, lower down?

Cincidentally, there is a "Phoenix Life Holdings Limited" mentioned in last Tuesday's RNS - but that's registered as in Birmingham.

"....Hate to say it but we will prob be down 50% by the end of the week....." Helluva an opinion Yorkshire. Care to expand on why so gloomy? - I have my set up for trend-following charts showing GVC as in a committed bear retrace since mid January, with nil signs of showing any signs of abating - but a 50% retrace? Really?

Why thank you kind sir! (Sir, as in sir lady :) :) Yes, still have my initial holding in Green King, Never did top-up to my preferred budgeted amount per diversified share preference. It remains a tiddler in that respect. So could easily make a second or more, buys and bring the average SP down, although I was in originally in at a reasonable price - for that period. But what about BWNG? This is a tough one to second guess where the floor might be. Officially the trading update is not a profit warning - but analysts are treating it s such. I'm not too much under water, but 'where is the floor', will decide how much under water life I can withstand before gasping for air..

Well, Woodgy I'm glad you asked for "opinions" and not advice. Based purely on PE ratios the sector that contains Amer averages PE12 As Amer is flirting around 20p tonight, that means Amer's forward PE is currently down to 9.8 That in itself is not 'grossly' undervalued in my opinion - but just plain undervalued. If the SP were on a level playing field and rated as worth PE12 then fair price is at 24p - in my opinion. However the question you should then ask yourself is - but why does the market rate AMER at so much of a discount to the others in it's sector? I'm not ready to dismiss the market's view, but await the full year results due to be published this April. If the money's there, the market will reward accordingly. It's heard jam tomorrow stories before. So it's not falling over itself to rerate Amer until it 'sees the money'. Personally, if I can perchance pick up a bargain sub 20p I'll take the punt ahead of April. But quite happy to sit it out on the sidelines until Show-me-the-money day in April and if necessary pay a greater SP amount than can currently be obtained just for the confirmation of seeing audited, proven profits, in the accounts.

Directly beneath this post there are pound signs throughout my post where apostrophe commas should be. (If it makes it unintelligeable to read). Typed it out on Word first, as had a lot of figures to collate in order before posting, so probably that's the cause.

Right, at last, a chance to look at today�s price action. First off, the kindest review of today�s fall, appears on the Motley Fool site. It was so upbeat that halfway through I thought oh good they�re going to call it an over reaction and give it a recommendation. But they concluded by saying they didn�t like BWNG. They have concerns about future profit margins. So took a closer look at today�s volume to get a feel of how strong the selling was. And I was shocked. The volume today was mega. So as I said in an earlier post this was real selling and not the MM�s price adjusting in anticipation. The volume was not just mega � it was up there with the all time highs. Consider: The 50 day long term average is just over 529,000 - But today�s volume was higher than that. The 200 day long term average is just over 640,000 - But today�s volume was higher than that. It just over 5.1 million! There is nothing to rival that all last year, not until you go as far back as April 2016 where there�s a day there, that is higher still and stands clear of today�s volume. But after that, not 5 years back, nor 10 years back, is there a single day to match today�s volume. In fact you have to go as far back as 2003 and then yes, there are a couple of times where there are higher volume days � several from 2003 back to 1998. So today�s volume is significant. The SP has just crossed into the foothills of oversold territory, but there�s no telling if it will drop further or respond positively on Wednesday. I�m not prepared to call the floor just yet, but overall I�m of the opinion the market is serious about downgrading BWNG�s SP and that this is no flash in the pan over-reaction. Bugger! : (

Yes, I thought that too. Results good, generally up on last year. Apparantly city analysts were expecting even more! Greedy barstewards! Decided to do likewise and make a small top-up. But checked and I'd be well breaching my budgeted limits, as fully topped up already. So looked around for reasons to delay to see if it drops further tomorrow. And found one. I assumed MM's had marked this down on analyst's dour response - bot not a bit of it. Above average volume so it's genuine selling. So delaying 24 hours at least. Had it been low volume I'd have been in like ..... in like ooh I don't know - in like something fast. Don't like the above average volume. Will return tonight and post how today's volume compares to the long term averages. If it's high then I suspect worse to come, but let the day close first; after hours auction the lot - then I'll compare volumes. The outcome will determine whether I top up gung ho - or bunker down for the foreseeable.

Probably too early to say it - but "panic" over? As SP is currently back up to almost kissing last mid-week prices.

Yes, and the speculation comes from the weekend media. Govt still to rule on FOBT limits. Intraday am looking like clawing it's way back up somewhat so far. Still a nasty early morning fright.

Hi Croas, "...Mine come in slightly higher for 2017 with revenue at $86.3m ...." Yes, as that's only $2.1m higher, then your estimate is pretty much in accordance with the one in my post. However, I did say (ignoring all the guidance on increasing production and only using the latest half year interim update to develop a 12 month trailing figure) then my lowest expectation, seperate from broker's/official estates is only $60.9m for 2017. Be very, very, interesting to see the full 2017 figures. "....and to reach $153m for 2018... " Yes, that's exactly the estimate I'm seeing - but not making a comment on that, UNTIL I see those 2017 figures. What's especially timely about the April release results is not only will they take all the guesswork off the table but it should also include a quick mention of how the current quarter ending that same April month, is progressing; and that will really bring things screaming up to date and thus more easily measured as to say for instance, how likely/or not FarmerTally's 55p will be by the end of the year. Just look at the jump in broker's consensus figures for 2017 and 2018 on both Earnings per Share & Net Profit: Earnings Per Share y/e 2017 = $0.002 cents Earnings Per Share y/e2018 = $0.028 cents & Net Profit y/e 2017 = $ 3.13m Net Profit y/e 2018 = $38.6m Everything is multiplied by the power of 10 times for 2018 Must say, their Earnings Per Share for 2018 (approx 2.8 cents) is my trailing 12 month 'forward' forecast that I'm using right now as the full 2017 year, and the figure I used to arrive at that SP of just 24p. I will be most keen to see the actual EPS in the full results and get a proper handle on things as the past couple of years have cratered the trading results, with red negative figures for most headings all over the place.

It's said "sleep on it" works and is not an empty saying. I tend to agree. After posting last night of arriving at a base figure of 24p for the SP after the results in April are published and those back-up the estimates currently advised to the market I couldn't help feel despite 24p being the right calculation from the available information that, if it did end up higher - how might that happen and hold, and not just spike? And today, it strikes me the answer lies in using "the median average". Currently as of Friday night the forward PE ratio has just slipped from 10 to reside in a single forward figure at PE9.9 (seriously cheap INMO) The average PE for the industry is PE12 so merely uprating the current SP to the "average" industry PE produces 24p. That just puts it on a level playing field, no more. But the average is comprised of a variety of lows and highs. So checked out the well known superstars of the Oil & Gas Exploratory stocks - BP. and Shell (RDSB). And as expected they are well above, not only of their industry sector average, but above the whole stock market average too at PE16 - for both of them! So I mused, what if the results in April, knock the socks off the market's analysts, what would they feel an appropriate price the future earnings per share would be, and hence from that the resultant SP? Assume they get rated the same as those two superstocks @ PE16, what would that translate into for Friday's closing SP? Only a 60% higher rerate. So, based on Friday's close, that would give 32p - the same as the broker forecast in the FT. So as of this moment I'd like to broaden my expected future SP to be in the range anywhere from between 24p to 32p. The higher SP being an outperform figure, if you like. There is one other thing. Suppose the results really, really, over-deliver and beat the current estimates by a considerable margin? With resulting higher revenue, and if costs controlled, an even higher earnings per share amount? That's the ONLY scenario I could expect to see an even higher SP than 32p. That's a very tall order. So first things first - The April results - until then and thus some up todate show-me-the-money figures, I'm going with expectations of between 24p and 32p - no more. My guess (after results publication) : 24p - 32p

Or hit, and run away like a scalded cat from it? - Reasonably optimistic that 800p will get its first kiss from the SP since the days before the share realignment thing. 800p is a resisance ceiling like no other in PHNX's history. It was breached only once - in earely 2017 when it was mathematically somewhat easier, in the weeks before the share re-allocation. Apart from that occasion, I've looked at 20 years of price action and the SP has never been near there apart from where said that early 2017. Some attempts though. Don't underestimate the challenge to break that resistance ceiling. It'll be it's toughest job ever. Take up your positions. Bayonets fixed? Prepare to advance!

Last Friday I posted that I thought the SP had become ov/bought commencing from that precceding Wednesday 10th January. I said it was likely to herald some sort of small retrace in days, rather than weeks. Some posted that they thought I may have be too negative in my outlook. Possibly. In later posts I revealed I wished I'd said 'sooner' rather than days, I still do, but anyway, as fate would have it, it's now confirmed (in my eyes) it came out of ov/bought on Tuesday 16th this week. So SP is free-ranging now, and no longer ov/bought. Not that any of that matters, just didn't like leaving it 'unfinished'. Yes it's done a small retrace, to come out of ov/bought, but nothing of note, or concern.

Erratum: "But using the forward projection based on the half year interims "only" throws up $60.9m not $64.2m" $64.2m is a typo - I meant the the $84.2m estimate. Wherever you see 64.2m substitute 84.2m ....Tsk! Oh dear.