Member Info for Velo

.. but due to some cockamamie research by financial acadmics I've applied their findings to this dog of a share, because it fits their parameters, and have come up with June as the date upon which this share will COMMENCE it's recovery. Thought I'd place this post marker here in case this share continues to retrace or stay rangebound along the bottom (my personal expectations for it) and the next share on my list performs, and thus would render the results in the realms of luck and sheer happenchance. So I'll be watching this from June, but god - given the choice I hate even looking at this pile of dog****. Would never be a natural 'pick' by me.

Had Kenny taken a 'gamble' on Ladbrokes and waited until today he'd have almost certainly (IMO) picked them up even cheaper as no one else would want them. He mentions the word 'dissapointed' in today's RNS and is preparing to close shops etc., something he almost certainly was going to do when leases expired naturally perhaps. The RNS is upbeat for the future which I hope will bring some stability back to the recently volatility in the SP. These wild swings in the SP have made me roller coster queasy at times.

Still a couple of weeks before the decision is reached and govt planning to raise tax elsewhere in gambling industry on other stakes to make up the shortfall in taxes. So have a feeling Hammond may, just may, not go all the way down to £2 but a severe cut down anyway closer to it. He's accepted the logic of the deep cut in the proposals but it's still speculation IMO that he will accept the very lowest proposal of £2

How confusing! On their website it still says 23rd April for release of 2018 results but on the main lead page it now says 26th April. Seen elsewhere that 26th is being quoted. So looks like results not today - but out on Thursday the 26th April.

Never have a set of final trading accounts been more important in the history of BWNG's share price than those expected to be released this coming Monday, 23rd April. On the last RNS trading update, the CEO was buoyant to the point of expecting to meet full year targets, but in the details, analysts noticed that would only be possible due to profits from finance charges making up for decling sales in the run-up to that trading update. No matter, I thought promising to meet expectations was enough and so was as surprised as everone else that the market then decided to treat BWNG as if a profit warning had been issued - and the SP started sinking immediately. Nice little climb back tonight though, eh? (200p) So either the full year results on Monday are enough to allay the fears of the market and the SP starts recovering, or there's more of what analysts feared and that would herald yet worse to come and the SP goes right back down. So it's all eyes to next Monday - and good luck. ------------------ By the way, if the results are met with disdain by the market and it's once again treated as yet another profit warning then I'm not overly concerned as I believe based on research of profit warnings that the very end of this year/beginning of next year will be the last chance for recovery - but the great thing about BWNG is that they publish 4 trading updates per year. So any intermediate improvements to come could shorten waiting for the year end/early next year fear before recovery, IMO. So my thinking is this. A) A good positive RNS that is beyond criticism and this retrace the SP has endured has every chance of being over. B) A 'bad RNS' then I'm holding out until the end of Dec 2018/Jan2019 without any expectations of improvement in the meantime before then. C) But with there being 4 updates per year then there's still hope that any improvement would be published subsequent updates before the start of next year. So, all in all, I'm not overly concerned for Monday. But what will be, will be - we'll see :)

Ha! So 'downbutnotout' thinks he's a descendent of Nostradamus, does he? Not content with stating the bleein' obvious "Who knows. Velo doesn't" Which only a fool would disagree with, he then reveals his true colours - first he can't tell the difference between a week and a month ie., "a week ago" but that's okay as he was probably racing to demonstrate that whilst others 'don't know' - he of course does know, and spiels off predicting half a dozen prices hoping one will stick. But worse than that, and just to show he believes he is the son of Nostradamus he not only produces a price he thinks likely but goes one further and gives it in precise fractions of decimal points. ie., 160.4p - (POINT FOUR!!!) Wow! Truly he must be the son of Nostradamus for I know of no other earthly body that predicts future share prices to fractions of decimal points! Can anyone reading this predict future share prices to fractions of decimal points, accurately? - Only one conclusion: God must be whispering in his ear. So whilst I don't mind the rather obvious statement that I nor anyone else can predict the future, I object to a shyster using it to hide behind, in order to then pull the wool over everyone's eyes and post future prices of exactly what he just said can't be done - to a level of fractional decimal points, such is his delusion in his power of prophesy LOL! TA is more art than science , but I guess he doesn't yet have the years of experience to have learnt that with his laughable decimal points.

Okay, let's see if the CEO's buying has any 'instant' influence. Actual live price as I post is 15.63p at 2 minutes or so before 4pm. What will it do in the last 30 minutes from here after that RNS announcement, if anything?

Just come out approx 15 minutes ago - the CEO has just bough �50k's worth of shares. That's 3 director buys in two days so far.

I make it roughly about 5 brokerage houses in the past have expreseed an interest in updating the market in guidance target prices, Not one of them has been interested enough since last June 2017 to isue either a reiteration or a new target price since that date. After such a dramatic increase in revenue it would be expected one or two of them might shift gear and show some interest in the coming days - if not, the perennial truism gets highlighted once again that small unloved AIM stocks often go under researched or unresearched by the big houses so it leaves plenty of time for the small investor to move in and out ahead of them.

I posted below quite quickly. Upon rereading it I see a typo in it that might mislead. Where I posted in the second para of: --------------- Then I saw the nett profit also busting the market's forecast wide open and thought, yes defo time to bring out the bunting and party. Even when I read that $12.2M of the nett profit was due to a tax credit I still thought yes, but removing the tax credit should show still also show a similar 'significant' increase over the market's expectations, surely? ------------- Please ignore the second para in it's entirety. I do carry on posting of $0.6m nett profit and $12.2m tax credit and the whole post should still make sense with that second para removed.

Upon first seeing the increased revenue of $92.5m (described in the RNS release as 'significant' which it is) I thought WOW! They've beaten the markets expectations - that must, simply must, cause a similar 'significant' reappraisal by the market of the SP. Then I saw the nett profit also busting the market's forecast wide open and thought, yes defo time to bring out the bunting and party. Even when I read that $12.2M of the nett profit was due to a tax credit I still thought yes, but removing the tax credit should show still also show a similar 'significant' increase over the market's expectations, surely? And that's when things stopped and possibly the reason for the unremarkeable reception by the market to Amer's SP. Nett profit without the tax credit is $0.6m Expectations were for $1.97m - And that was based on an increased revenue of $83.2m, But in this case that was comprehensively beaten by a "significant" amount at a commendable �92.5m! - So surely the $1.97m nett profit would at least have come in at $2m minimum?? No it came in at $0.6m (at least it's a profit and not a loss though). Just can't get my head around the fact that $83m revenue was supposed to bring home $1.9m nett profit - So what was $92m supposed to bring home - defo more than $0.6m !!! And THAT's what the market couldn't get it's head round either (IMO) - and refused to recalibrate the SP today. Maybe slowly in the coming days then? One thing you can not say to the market is - we hope to turn in $83m revenue and that will result in $1.9m nett profit and then go and come in with stunning, nay "significant" increase over that promised revenue - yet hand in LESS nett profit than was promised for a lesser amount of revenue. Unfigginbelievable! I just can't understand how you can beat the revenue forecast by a significant amount - and fail to even come in with the promised nett profit. Something doesn't add up. Is it the CFO? I ask, is it the CFO because of this - I wondered how such a huge credit tax could suddenly appear out of the blue, and there in the RNS release is a quiet admission of poor book keeping - The tax credit entry was due to quote: "...As a result of NOT BEING CORRECTLY RECRDED ON CONSOLIDATION ENTRIES" Unquote. Earlier this year I posted of a poor Earnings Manipulation rating by an alogorythm I have access to and posted it's findings. In the same post I admitted as soon as I discovered it, that Earnings Manipulation Reports by that algo were not reliable for energy stocks, so disowned it. On other stocks it remains blank but for some reason it triggered into life for Amer. I wonder now, if it picked up on such things. I'm not suggesting manipulation - I am suggesting that as soon as the execs in charge of the bookeeping fails to make the correct entries they be shown the door and employ someone with an O level in bookeeping. I can think of no other reasons for the lacklustre response by the

Oops - last sentence got cut off. Shopuld have finished as: "....But those as I said are more art than science - so they have to be beaten, comprehensively, even though they are in themselves a great improvement over 2016." Bit messy there in formatting the figures, tsk! Try again - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2011 . . . 2012 . . . . . 2013 . . . 2014 . . .2015 . . . 2016 Revenue $m . . . 14.2 . ... . 42.2 . .. . . .169.2 . . ..199.5 . . . 61.2 . .. 47.2 Net Profit $m . . . 1.78 . . .. 12.8 . . . . . . 46.8 . . .. . 27.4 . . . -26.7 . . .-28.5 There that shold do it :)

Been checking the Amer website regularly but no mention of the precise date of the finals (although it's common knowledge it's sometime in April) so bemused that Amer are effectively handing out precise information to those that request it, that should normally be made available to all, on the investors page of their website! So it's Monday then, is it? Wasn't going to post the following as trying desperately (and failing) to abstain from posting on forums but I think the eve of the finals over-rules those considerations. I have estimated figures that I believe the market will be looking for, and thus the market will make it's judgement on whether they are bettered on the day, or fall short. So posting them here for those who may not have any firm figures in mind. These are not my personal opinions but market expectations, however I have included the more rare Trailing 12 month figures for closer accuracy, that admittedly those are more art than science. First off as a refresher, here is what has gone before: 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Revenue $m 14.2 42.2 169.2 199.5 61.2 47.2 Net Profit $m 1.78 12.8 46.8 27.4 -26.7 -28.5 2015 and 2016 were both negative for nett profit and declining in revenue. Here's what the market are expecting from brokers expectations based on Amer's guidance: 2017Estimated Revenue $83.9m Nett Profit $1.97m So you can see, for the first time in years, expectations are for an actual nett profit : ) (small as it is, though) and not another loss - and just look at that jump in revenue from 2016's $47.2m! Anything less than $83.9m revenue and $1.97m in nett profit, will IMO probably result in a poor reception by the market. They HAVE to be "in line" with those market expectations or even slightly better. - And those are the main two figures I will be seeking out before the market opens (if Monday is the day for results). And here's what they're looking for in 2018 (before a recalibration after Monday's actuals) - 2018Estimated Revenue $141m Nett Profit $22.4m So 2018 is really THE year to look out for, if (if) all goes well on Monday. ------------------------------------ I mentioned the Trailing 12 month estimate above, which are not so hot, so here it is (based on using the last interim figures from last September) (Trailing 12 Months for 2017Estimate) Revenue $60.9m Nett Profit -$22.8m And those Trailing 12 month figures are way down on the market's estimate which means the 6 months from the interim figures onwards, will really have gone-some to please the market. But those as I said are more art than science - so they have to be beaten, comprehensively, even though they are i

Thought the veracity of a throwaway line sounded out of place - JTD last Friday @ 14:44pm - "... I can live with a low SP and and don't mind others getting in lower...." And JTD last month on 19th Feb to another poster - "... you getting in cheap is something I'm not prepared to help facilitate..." If not a change of heart then a demonstration of cognitive dissonance? :)

Heads up - Full year results for 2017 due (23rd) tomorrow morning.

Erratum: Sorry - said that Rrs about face - should have been that the fear of a £2 limit being imposed was not realised. It's an unchanged situation.

The Times is reporting that the decision to adjust the limit was sidestepped with a decision that no one prediced. It remains unchanged at �2. Hence the early spike up to 979p earlier on. How does one man like Kenny keep calling it right, time and time again?

Have had this on a watchlist so long I've forgotten when I first placed it there. Good news is that on a long term view, looking back over the years - it's a bottom left to top right trajectory and the current malaise doesn't look anything much out of the ordinary to change that long term trajectory. However looking over the past few months only, it appears over enthusiastic buying took it to an unsustainable peak by the end of 2017 and this year it's caught in a bear grip - as a result of that over zealous confidence? The good news is, that so severe is the despondency that the selling has been overdone and although I see the SP dropping further from here (a visit into the 60's ??) at which point I expect it will likely recover IMO. But by how much and for how far that recovery does so, is the question :) So more pain to come but it is date-stamped in my view - and then a recovery from the malaise. Quick word on fundamentals: Finances look satisfactory to me. Analysts forecasts together with the company's, look bright with increasing revenue and increasing net profit, plotted in for the next year or two. What's not to like on that score? Again, an extremely long term holder would see nothing much wrong and would be quite relaxed looking back over the years. It's only those who may have bought in recent months, rather than recent years that will be feeling the pinch a bit. I fancy having a punt when the SP ceases retracing which I expect to be all over within a month at most, and then a rally of the SP can commence.

Well good news! Not only did the SP not close below the first support, but it closed above the first resistance of 868p! On that basis and the balance of probabilities I'm prepared to stick my neck out and say - that was it - the floor! Yesterday's 860p was indeed the floor and I very much doubt it's looking to drop lower in the short term. Who knows if it sticks around at this level or inches its way back up - whatever, I'm happy enough with the positive close tonight, to expect no further dramatic retracement in the short term.

If anyone's rattled by the current, quite dramatic, falling SP and watching their paper profits decline by the day, as I have been, then this might (or might not) be of some comfort. Been looking at 'hard' supports (not fibbo retracement supports) to see which might be the one that stops the rot. In fact there are so many supports it's almost pointless mentioning them as they's virtually at regular 10p drops all the way down to 800p. 860p where it is tonight, is one. Then 850p afterwhich it's straight on to 830p and a very strong one at circa 820p then virtually nothing all the way to coming up against 800p itself. Going to finish there to avoid frightening myself further. If this retrace continues I'm plumping for 820's to be the floor that ends the retrace. In the meantime my personal 'worry point' for Tuesday is 852p I'm of the opinion that should the day CLOSE BELOW 852p then there's much worse to come. However, IMO should the SP close on anything ABOVE 852p then it's fair to ask - is the retrace bottoming out?