Member Info for Velo

And a sunny Sunday good morning to you C/mate, Thanks for the link. The internet makes easy Columbo's out of us all :) copy/pasted from UK bit onwards and instantly it threw up YouTube with several Mark Slater videos. At work so couldn't devote more than a few seconds to it. Tried again later and saw another link to the Telegraph saying Mark Slater talks about the stock that returned his investment 35 times! (Cape I think it was) but I'm a sucker for things like the para in there somewhere where he said 'we eliminate 90% to 95% of the market with just 3 sieves we use' - but couldn't read it as working. So placing this post as a memo marker to remind me tonight.

"Now do you pay for a service to look at charts in a certain amount of detail? I am just using free services for the time being, only been at this for a year or so. :) " - Yes, I do subscribe to a specialist service. I really need it. But like you, for many a year I just used what was available for free online. I also have the live prices package added to mine, so I'm as happy as Larry - so to speak.

Yes, that's it more or less - but rather than the Gap-Up indicating future growth, it's better reffered to as a sudden pent up demand by large buyers (ii's) affecting the price in the pre-opening auction of that paticular day. 9 times out of 10 the SP continues to trend up for awhile. Other times the gap-up can move little after the opening bell, and lowers expectations of a new bull run. And it's the same in reverse a gap-down. There are two camps of thought that gap-up's don't necessarily get revisited to "Fill The Gap". I'm in the most definitely IT does revisit to fill the gap at any time in the future - be it years, decades or months later, (or weeks). - When someone points to a gap not being revisited to be filled, I always retort well you haven't waited enough years :) ------------------ Well by mid day I got spooked a bit by the platforming of 72p/73p flooring for more or less 3 or 4 days on the trot now. So I did my usual and didn't worry about the futility of calling the bottom and purchased a small initial buy this afternoon. Trend lines still strongly bearish looking, so I'm wary. But the SP could dissapate sort of sideways in a rangebound manner for days until the trendlines catch up and as the SP levels out as it has down mostly all this week, before then coming out of the dive. Oversold Relative Strength is easing slightly, indicating possibly an easing out of the dive, ....maybe. So my first tranche leaves me space to make another 4 or 5 purchases up to my preffered budgeted level per share. So If it drops further - goody, I can make the same small purchase again, and ameliorate my average buying in price without concern. If it drops a lot more - same again - if it starts to rise, I can pay higher or as I sometimes do, leave a share pick under-budgeted - so as to pick up any future meanderings cheaply - without going over budget. I don't rush to maximum buying up, I dawdle. All day it was showing 72p sell / 74p buy. Live prices didn't appear to move so did a dummy buy on my brokers site and was very surprised that the hefty margin was no longer there and the stock was available to buy for 72.64p - only thing was, is that I was on my SIPP's broker site and I want this in my ISA. So came out of it and got some jobs done and thought I would look in hours later - only to do the exact same thing the incorrect brokerage account - and it was still the same exact price hours later. So went over to my ISA account, and unbelievably it was still available for 72.64p so I thought - well that'll do and took it. Well pleased. Now I've got some skin in the game I'm keeping more of an eye on the negatives of DOTD. The Price to book ratio is terrible. And the price to free cashflow (discounted cashflow) is even worse! It's on the ropes. Not good at all. I'll have to drop a line to that Mark Slater, see what he thinks - LOL !

Thanks bakeoven & Juxtapose. Both v Interesting viewpoints.. That mega volume today and nothing happening to the SP - well it blew my socks clean off today. They were due to go in the laundry anyway.

So, do you reckon that's what all this huge, record breaking, volume carry-on, was about? ii's doing private deals in with others, in advance to agree to take their stock off them so they weren't left "hanging" to market forces? Thus only miniscule/ little change in today's SP? For every seller there must be a buyer etc., but on this occasion the price didn't have to drop to attract buyers to the sellers - all very gentlemanly - but what does it mean for the immediate future of the SP?

(Cont from below)... DOTD Gap-up's. The last time DOTD was at tonight's closing SP - was in mid October last year - where it gapped-up the next day from closing at 72p then jumping up overnight so the next trading day it opened up straight out the gate 8:00am at circa 76p (a 5% increase overnight gap-up; nice work if you can get it) but better still, that new trading day that it gapped up 5% to 76p - is that it only went and closed at 82p that same day; showing the Gap-up was strong demand for the stock. So consider this; an investor would turn in for the night knowing his or her DOTD shares were priced at close @ 72p. That investor is busy the next day, and couldn't get near a phone or screen or whatever, and returned home in the evening only to find that it had closed that day at 82p after the previous night's close of 72p - so in one day it had gapped up from the previous day's close of 72p only to close the next trading day at 82p giving that investor a 13.8% gain in one day flat! Gap-up's can do that. They're powerful. And from then on the true nature of the gap-up giving investors a "heads up" revealed it's true intent of built-up buying demand to soar away to finiih a few months later at the end of the year at circa 104p - a 44% increase which the gap-up "signalled" ahead of the game.. Now here's the thing, if/when a share comes back down to that price area sometime in the future - it's not elephants that have the longest memories - it's the stockmarket - and as often as not that powerful gap-up, when meeting the SP if/when its retracing back down to (in this case 72p/82p area) finds that the gap-up area reverses polarity and becomes a fearsome support for the SP to overcome. I'm tempted to say this SP retrace may run aground around here at that old gap-up area. The medim trendlines/monentum say: no it's still going down, and has not yet shown amy inclination of turning on it's heel. Who will prevail? The 72p gap-up or the current retracing downtrend? (If the downtrend 'wins' it could indicate serious loss of faith in DOTD for the forseeable) - In writing this I've almost talked myself into making an initial buy at 72p tomorrow :) BUT as I said below to C/Mate when I start guessing bottoms as often as not I can come unstiuck - whereas everytime I've obeyed my trendlines, even though they may turn to the upside later on at say I dunno 78/80p I often do far, far, better by waiting for CONFIRMATION from the prevailing trend to show the danger is over. Phew! I'm done :). Night night.

Hi Hewmmingway212, I think you've obtained an all round good, and sensible, buying-in price. Trend is still down but it's looking to turn soon, so all-in-all not a bad price to get in, at all. ".. I make most of my money from oversold businesses over a 3-6 month period ..." Sounds like a good contrarian strategy. Coincidentally on that strategy, I have a new similar "idea" in operation this year, and further to the acadmics research papers I posted to C/Mate, I also came across research by the same, on the performance of shares issuing a profit warning and from that research I have bulit up quite a list of previously 'hit' shares and from the research have postulated a likely date of where the recovery will start to reccover from, so as a "sideline" I'm going to try my hand at something not involving TA or charts or fundamentals but recovering profit-warning-hit shares. PFG - is next up in my sights this summer. (Second-up, is GNK from September although it's making a dash for freedom right now (might be it's divi payment due in June though) And more shares than I can handle from October onwards :) It's not so much as I think they will each recover from a certain date but more they are relatively "safer" commencing from that date. One of my own long held shares issued a profit warning yesterday and bang! It got hit with a 26% fall yesterday (I was expecting 22% to 24% according to the research notes), but already I have a plan of action (the first plan I let pass which is - always, always, sell on the day, the very moment you discover a profit warning has been issued. It's usually a day of total shock so an investor needs to know in advance what action to take. I decided against the first action and will take the second option which is wait a whole full year (it's a high divi paying share PHTM so that's why and also I don't want to crystalise a 4 figure loss - I reckon I can get it back - but slowly, years from now). Checked out that SYM you mentioned - and Geezalou - I've got too much to write on that here (positive and negative) also this is not the forum to discuss it. Where did you first become aware of it? Turns plastic into biofegadable slush eh? But what a lowly micro cap, pretty sure my papernboy earns mopre than the market cap valuation of SYM - Lol :) In summary - It frightend the begeezus out of me - and ignited the dark side speculator in me :) Putting it on a watch list - it's retracing heavily at the moment isn't it? Hmmm. Oops almost forgot - Gap-up's.- OH! Just used up the forum's bandwidth for posting, so will finish Gap-up's in a follow-up post - but after a cuppa :)

Oops - yes Monylender and anyone else -Apologies - sorry about that error on Rex - should have been just under 5% holding on 12th February - not 5 million shares held. Was reading an account of a former hedge fund manager boasting he could bring down any company on the stockmarket by shorting them with only 5 million dollars. Then today's volume 'reason' was eluding me as the SP should have reacted but it didn't and by the time I got to posting it had morphed in my thoughts from 5% of shares held by Rex to 5 million shares held by Rex. Bugger!

Good evening Chequemate. "The reason why I sold still stands ie the share price had fallen by a (more than) determined % from my buy in price and I didn't want to take a larger loss" Have to agree with you there. Each has to assess their risk tolerance at the price they enter the market. Got some accumalated academics research somewhere proving by decades of research that your 20% stop-loss methodology is the most profitable of them all. Personally a 20% stop loss is too much for my risk style (although in the past and recently I've lost tons more than 20% before selling (tons! :) as generally I run bare-Rrrsd-naked without stop losses at all !! But this research I came across is truly an eye-opener. Looked down the list of results and the next most profitable was 15% stop loss (That'll do me I thought) Worse results were 10% and 7 and 8% stop losses. Also rigid stop losses were a less profitable strategy than trailing stop losses. Trailing stop losses of 20% proved to the most effective, the most profitable, when back-tested against re-entering the same equities when the downtrend terminated and reversed upowards Only thing is, none of my ISA/SIPP brokers do trailing stop losses - only my spreadbetting accounts offer trailing stop losses, which I expect is similar to what most investors find - they'll let you place stop losses but have no provision for trailing stop losses. Yes got Jim Slater's Zulu Principle book (for all the good it's done me. When I finally found what suited my investing-self it's surprising what one's character sits comfortably with (Trend/momentum following). I'm mostly big caps and mid caps, as I regard these AIM stocks as the impalement of private investors but recently, even though I'm doing reasonably well I've decided to let in a little more "risk" with an AIM stock or two, but honestly I'm going "Euggh" like wotshername off 'To The Manor Born', as I prowl amongst these small caps and micro caps. "...will consider seriously buying back in. I would like to see some strength though first and am prepared to pay something off the bottom ..." - You've just highlighted in that sentence what I've long discovered I'm supposed to do, but half the time I mess it up doing the "off the bottom (which is always a guess)" bit. I have my strategy and if I followed it every time instead of second guesing it - I'd be far better off today than I am. I have determined it's back to disciplined strategy and put my "guessing" back in a box - because it always ruins things for me - strategies planned in advance always work out best. Jim Slater - generally read most things on his son Mark; even though he's small cap. Is that an online video you saw him in, or a seminar you visited in person? Regards.

Was sheltering from the downpour as the markets closed and couldn't believe the volume on the pokey little phone screen. But could see from comments that volume had been picked up on - but most have missed the point and blabbed on that old chestnut that every newbie gets hung-up on - Uncrossing Trades (UT). Feggit about UT trades - ignore them. It's today's total volume that's truly, truly, record breaking today. Consider the 50 day average for total volume traded on AMER is approx 5.8m the longer term 200 day volume is near half that. - Today's volume was an absolutely staggeringly, humungous, record breaking 31M+ Geezalou!!! Totally unheard of this year, and last, and... so at home on my desktop and had to get the 10 year history up on screen to get anything comparable - it goes like this: - Today's volume was last bettered 5 years ago approx in May 2013 and barely beaten yet again towards the end of 2012. - Then had to go back to the last major market crash of the 2009 era to find today's volume beaten, but not by too much - in 2010! Put the 20 year history up on screen (What was amer's type of business back then?) And counted roughly only 5 occasions ever, in total, since 2003 that today's volume was bettered. Once by quite a bit - all the others by not too much. So what's been going on today? It was a pretty quiet day price movement-wise, so take no notice of the computer's guess at the individual buys and sells above. The overall volume favoured the bears but look what little damage it did to the SP. The ii's were either moving in to Amer or moving out; but the price movement suggests they were reasonably balanced. I'd hazard a guess at pretty equal amounts due to the little movement in the SP, despite the total volume favouring the sellers. Don't know whether to be apprehensive going into the weekend and next week, or the other way. Defo big guns (ii's) out in force today - massively! Incedentally Rex was reported by Amer as on their register down to his last 5 million shares - back in March or Feb. Either he's shot his bolt by now and he's gone - or worse, he's been "leverging" but that requires finance.

Well stage one is over - the end of the first day of a Profit warning. The so-called smart money started getting out today. If you're still holding (like myself) then like it or not you are now either by default, or chance, going to be (or already are) that lesser spotted creature - the long terrm holder! I say started getting out, and not got out (got out would be us the private investors) - the institutions can't do that in one fell swoop, their holdings sold in entirety in one slab would result in the mm's offering them 10p! - So they'll take months to sell up, capitalising on every little rise, a step each time; hence the next full year I'm expecting no respite - just peaks and troughs down here in the devils dungeon. So it's wise to prepare for what appears recovery only for it to to slip back; become rangebound in sideways moves for extended preiods. If you've held this since BEFORE autumn 2014 then you're likely still in profit or lost all 4 years progress but still have your original stake money intact, but if you've only held it for 4 years (nearly 3 in my case) then you are most certainly under water.(High frequency trading excluded). So, on to stage 2 Who will, over the next full year, find their nerves shattered beyond endurance and sell-up, if additional events conspire to pile on the presurre? I'm not ruling myself out of that happening. You have to know your own emotion quota in the storm of holding a Profit Warning share. I've cracked before and fled - losing thousands; hence my posts below on what is the proceedure during a profit warning. The first chance to get out with minimum damage was today; but if you don't need the money elsewhere and are a true long term investor - it should all come good, but only starting into the second year on from today - it's this first year where all the tears will occur. Incidentally - if anyone reading this takes the decision to sell I'd appreciate a post on this forum advising of that decision - for my records to build a picture of how we private investors each react in such circumstances - as it is no different to a feeling of being mugged. I promise to post if I give up the ghost and sell-up. There's no guarantee this share will recover - I'm just quoting from past researchers (and of course the man himself Warren Buffet who would laugh at this 'little inconvenience') but first you have to be sure in your mind that PHTM is a company with a great future. I don't have an answer to that - it's for each to decide. Lots of strength in the balance sheet as others have pointed out - but also there are negatives in the balance sheet too. As holders naturally wanting the best, investors tend to favour positive analysis posts, but it's far better to have the full picture with the warts an' all, then the positive analysis posts will taste all the sweeter. Might try some small buys and small short selling spreadbets - was occupied this morning as the 120's were on show a good shorting o

H212 - Thought you were going to wait and see if you could bag it in the 60's? Personally, I see no change in the bearish momemum trends at all, nor any indications of change, so I think it's got a bit further to fall before it's done. However contrarian to that view - it is, seriously, seriously, oversold right now. Might bottom in days but checking back I'm thinking a week, or more before that. Checked back over the years for reltrive strength comparisons as this retrace looks quite deep from the sudden dive down from the 90's - but there's been worse in years past, so it's in its character to go deerper into the relartive strength retrace if the market is intent on disappointing holders. I can see why you've acted now though; it's right amongst those gap-up's in late autumn 2017 - now acting as support. However, I'm favouring the bearish momentum to continue as the trend has not yet changed. If it does dip into the 60's - I'll take a punt. Might put in a computerised limit buy order in readiness, but I prefer to duel on the day :) Not desperate right now for this so it's easy for me to play silly biggers with the SP at 73p

As that's ANOTHER approx 30% drop from here, where the SP is, as it stands in early afternoon (must take the day's close to be accurate though), I'd say the market would really have it in for PHTM, dotlink. At this juncture I'm expecting (guessing) absolutely no worse, at most, than 100 etc., if that. Perhaps somewhere between 100 and tonight's close will be the long term bottom? - But with the July results just around the corner, and a fuller explanation of everything and what guidance for the future is in there - will be the final decider. Just estimates and guesswork until July 10th - and the reaction the market gives upon seeing it.

Quick add: The full year results are out on July 10th. That's more important than other years because and I'll quote: It's by George Bulkley and Renata Herrerias researchers at University of Exeter in a 2002 study - "They looked at two kinds of profit warnings, those that include a new earnings forecast, and those that offer only information that earnings will be be below current expectations. Not surprsingly what they found was that the fall in the stock price against the market was substantially more when the company doid not gove an indication of whjat earnings would be (-24.7%) compared to when they did give a new earnings forecast (-20.7) Well that report at least gets closer to my fav of an all-purpose 22% decline.

Right, better keep it short as will get cut off in me prime again. After a Profit warning is issued I usually expect the first day to fall by circa 22% on average - on the first day. But been reading one of the researcher's notes and they say the first day usually falls by 16% less than that of the whole market. (Can't find the one that says it's a 22% fall generally - but let's check out the decline by close tonight). Secondly - there is no recovery for at least a full year and in fact, apart from one or two false dead cat bounces things get worse - but not as deeply worse as the first day/ or following week's retrace. Also, usually there was a 25% fall in the SP in the 12 months BEFORE the day of the Profit warning release. Only single figures in PHTM's case but from early Jan of this year to last night it's within spitting distance of that 25% preceeding fall. (Insider trading?) One report says to expect some "slight" recovery in the days that follow - but I call that the dead cat bounces. Okay - now the good news - they ALL report the same on this issue - research shows that PHTM should (on average; bare in mind there are wide variances but this is the "average") should COMMENCE it's recovery from JULY 2019. So, if you are a long terrm holder then judging what you think is a big discount to the SP might be a good course of action - if held for the long term and you regard what's to come as "market noise." There is no short term recovery. Forget months and think a year of nothing much then the second year as climb back. And most say that the second year often (often not always) shows the share BEATING the market by 22% - that's not 22% addeed to whatever the market does but 22% higher than what the market does. So if the general market rises by 10% then 22% betterment means the SP rises 12.2% approx - geddit? Don't go adding a straight 22% on top of the market rise. They all say this though - on the first day of the profit warning you should without hesitation sell. No delay, no messing about - just sell. Here's the thing. I'm cash rich in that I've allowed more cash to build up in my portfoilios than I'm comfortable with (mainly because this is the longest bull market in history , or is it the second longest in history?) and one worries about the next general crash and I wanted something set aside to buy at the bottom.) S0ooo, I was thinking I don't need the cash for other investments so don't want to crystalise a four figure loss and will siyt it out for 12 months reeling in the divis as compensation. On the other hand if one of the dead cat bounces takes the SP back up considerably hiogher than it is rigfht now then I might cut my losses and buy back in 12 months time? I'm going with the first option and watching if the second option presents itself - but in my experence a lacklustre SP momemtum awaits all holders for the rest of this year. Each to their own , but that's how I see it be

Ran out of bandwidth or whatever, so second half of that post that contains "the real meat" to foillow shortlky. Off for a cuppa first though.

Haven't posted on here since last summer. So I've done well in restricting myself to cutting back severely on posting of late. Can see from the few posts since this morning's Profit Warning RNS that there's no clear direction in the posts, nor the severity of what lies ahead for the next 12 months in respect of decisions taken only after due consideration to the research on the history of what happens TO ALMOST EVERY SHARE AFTER IT ISSUES A PROFIT WARNING. So if you bought in way above the current SP in front of you this morning (I'm down 4 figures but I have a plan, not a cunning plan Baldrick, but a plan nonetheless) - and are worrying about the reaction to take on receiving today's RNS - then this post is just for you. None of what follows is personal opinion - it's all culled from the papers of academic research and noted successful guru's research - and they all, chillingly, report similar results. To keep this short will just jump to conclusions. But first from some comments below: 1) No single trade "triggered" today's fall - and MM's are NOT playing games with the SP. The price fell due to market reaction after a profit warning was issued - that's all, no funny trades, no games by MM's. 2) The dividend uncertainty isn't responsible for the retrace. It may be an additional factor (and if so would in time consitute a future dreaded "second profit warning" with all the consequences that entails - but it's not the main, nor sole reason. It's the revelation that profits will not be as previously advised, and therefore next year's profit are downgraded to being no better than the previous year just ended (and those are due to be reported on July 10th) and that's mainly due to a failure to achieve success in Japan (pretty sure I posted last year that one of the Japanese newspapers were reporting that Fuji had a stranglehold on the passport photo market over there). The RNS blames it on the market over there being "highly competitive". 3) Buying this morning because it's cheap. Well if you intend being a long term holder I have full confidence you won't regret it - but short term you may yet wish you'd delayed buying as better opportunities may present themselves soon. Or you could have got lucky - but the SP will not go back to the 150's of last night - feggedit! - In fact not even early next year, but for almost certain from summer 2019 onwards the SP should commence it's recovery back towards those 150's and further - see next post In essense, anyone who thinks this is just a blip, or a storm in a teacup will be sorely dissapointed for the remaindrer of this year. I actually question whether anyone on this paticular forum has ever suffered holding a share that's issued a profit warning - because raw experience alone would inform you - that's not what happens next. Right, don't think I've missed out offending anyone (if you posted and have been ommitted from being offended speak up :) O

Only 4 years holding for me - same sentiments though. Had decided to top slice some profits once �10 breached and held. But momentum trend lines still bullish - anyway what would I buy that's better than GVC???

Thanks Cowed - overlooked that. It's a factor for sure but still stand by my post though. It's been retracing all week. If sentiment had remained bullish it shouldn't have dropped until it hit XD day.

Appears in a committed retrace/down trend this week. In the absence of an RNS or any other info I'm taking the current retrace as a reaction to the overbought situation when the SP heated up into the high 120's. Not overbought now of course. So looking for the floor. Might be tempted if it eventualy settkes at sub 100p. Or 100p itself might be the floor? Who knows - but the retrace is gathering momentum. Nervy if you're an investor. Opportunity if you're looking for an entry point.