Member Info for Velo

No, no history at all, just me succumbing to the heatwave.

Yeah Aus, I shouldn't have said " you're too frigging lazy", that was rude. I regret that bit - but not everything else.

Zebbo @ "far to server...... BT has a pile of dept and no revenue growth....get real .Rev growth need to be proven"

Careful Z -You're coming ascross so like the song: "Yesterday's man" - the world has moved on and so has your tired old sentiment - you quote research that's old.

". BT has a pile of dept " - Gosh thanks for that breaking news. So, you've only just found out have you? That being the case I guess you'll be unaware of the following more up to date research: BT's net debt, whilst poor - can easily be compared to other company's held in high regard who's debt compares to BT's in percentage terms to their market cap, yet draws no where near the criticism that BT has endured. So yes 'Too severe'. ALSO - did you know that as of this year, 2018 - that BT's debt is SIGNIFICANTLY below the European telecom average when compared with forecast 2018 EBITA? Again yes too severe the punishment. So you're propably thinking, okay but what about that additional huge pension deficit?

And I bet that's where you're really aiming your debt complaint at - the pension deficit, which again is old news and is being addressed.

For instance, BT announced the other month it was dropping £2 billion straight into the pension pot. Not only that, BT has ALSO announced it will pay into the pension deficit a further near £1 billion per year, every year, commencing from 2020 then right through EVERY SINGLE YEAR UNTIL 2030 - for a full decade!

(When I say £1 billion a year for the next 10 years commencing 2020 it's actually just under £1 billion at £900 million per year - but £1 billion per year is easier to remember and falls off the tongue easier).

If interest rates rise (IF) Those amounts could even be hauled in, as rising interest rates may confer benefits towards reducing the deficit, so that's why they're doing it over 10 years from 2020

Does this mean all have to listen to you moaning about the pension deficit for the next 10 years or so, just because you're too friggin lazy to do some propa research; and instead quote rapidly aging out of date research? And then you have the audacity to type - "get real". Isn't you who should get real? There would be nothing wrong with your post if you framed it as a question, instead of inserting " get real"

".. no revenue growth....get real . Rev growth need to be proven.."

With EE in BT's arsenal of weapons, did you know that makes BT the ONLY company in the UK that owns both fixed line and wireless networks, the epitomy of "converged services"? EE has the potential to provide BT with a competitive edge over over ALL OTHER OPERATERS in the UK. That's where some of the growth in revenue will likely come from - but hey - you keep pumping out the old research as much as you want - it still won't get you in, under 200p.

"...Got out with about a tenner after costs LOL!..."

That doesn't read as I intended -

- Got out with about a tenner in profits after costs - that's what it should have said, otherwise there'd have been no LOL but instead a :(

Am I getting this right? I get a free company with free shares in it, to the same amount as I already hold in SSE, and it won't cost me a penny?

As for the SP splitting in half, the current rise suggests the opposite is in play by those who want a piece of the action.

Sounds to me like a "free dinner" and you know what they say about this town and free dinners, don't you?

So where's the catch?
Where are they soft-soaping me?
What's the downside; where's the risk?

The SP rising suggests there is no downside. But does anybody ever get this lucky - for free?

Don't think there is. It's a case of a false positive or more prosaically, a case of a failure to launch.

When I saw it turnng back from kissing 80p I gave it room to recover, but when it arrived right on my doormat I thought, no - too risky to endure a loss, so sold before it turned into one. Got out with about a tenner after costs LOL!

Will keep tabs on this but it's been in a committed down trend since the beginning of the year and it's now July!

Based on its previous behaviour all this year long, I half erxpected it to give up the fight at 90p before turning back, so was caught unawares by it turning tail at 80p. When this retrace is spent, I expect the next rally will have a pop at kissing 90p. But that being the case, I'll look to re-enter at 70p or better, though.

It's just in the early stages of yet another bear run IMO, so anybody's guess where the new floor will be this time.

Whatever, it still looks as if it wants to drop lower than the price you see tonight. Also it's now entering the 7th month of committed retrace; is somethng else going on that I'm unaware of? It's beginning to smell a bit.

Looking at the balance sheet, The Price to Book Value, Price to Tangibles.Book, Price to Free Cashflow and Price to Sales book, all look pretty poor. Other than those the balance sheet doesn't look half bad at all. But with such consistent bad behaviour of the SP all this first half year, all of a sudden the PE ratio is starting to look a little expensive.

The full year results should be out in October and last year a tradfing update was released in mid July, so hope this long retrace all year, isn't insiders unloading their shares ahead of any bad news in the trading update. The behaviour of the SP all this year to date, does not inspire confidence.

By the way DC, if you're thinking of printing off a copy (the better option) to read in comfort, it takes 11 sides of A4 paper.

Also, it blanks-out, if non-members try to print their stuff. Hadn't realised I was already a free-member from years ago, as it told me my email address was already registered, so just a matter of recalling what password I used back then.

Yes, he believes although you can rightly attribute and lay poor performance at BT's door, the punishment by the market has been far too severe, and value has been overlooked. He doesn't look for quick fixes either, pretty sure he cited another 2 or 3 years hard slog before any bearing of fruit would be visible. And he's the only analyst who showed in pounds and pence, the benefits the football rights brought to BT whilst the rest of the world's analysts have convinced all and sundry to pour cold water on the project. Wouldn't know on the football issue but that one is no biggie to me, anyway.

A full week from Monday to Friday of non-stop blue days, each closing higher than it opened. That leaves BT set-up and fully primed with in-your-face, match strength peak fitness going into Monday and still trending to the upside. .

(If all you look at are the prices on LSE then you might be puzzling at 5 days instead of 4 as LSE showed Monay as down and in red - that's because LSE only shows blue if the SP is higher than the preceeding day's close, so although all 5 days closed higher than they opened, Monday actually opened and closed lower than Friday opened, even though it was up for the day - Clear? :)

Tonight's close finished just grand, to sit proud and clear of today's first resistance level. That's good enough to to proceed on to the next group. Bears have lost every match all this week. Back of the nettttt! They haven't won one single day.

For Monday, nothing fancty required to stay on top of the group as 233p would be nice and dandy to keep the bears on the back foot. Fractions of pence under 233 would be just as good, but 233 would seal the deal for good.

And if it should close even higher? Well the bears would cry foul, chorusing as one: "I don't believe it" and demand the BT team to be tested for drugs, that's how shocked they be. One the downside, the bears are right up BT's backside looking for 229p to declare a win, so any slackness in the defence, and letting Monday close at 229p would put BT on the back foot.

Evidence tonight suggests the bears won't get it, but look how close the support level is creeping up right behind BT. Another side effect of rushing straight through all the 220's in one breath, apart from going for a whizz or to put the kettle on, blink and you'd miss seeing any number in the 220's range flash by this last week, is that it's attracted the attention of the Relative Strength linesmen, and it's looking to the ref to blow his whistle soon. Most indicators though are out with their buckets and spades, so doesn't mean much at this stage.

Still tickets available to see the big game on Monday live - get your place now, the pundits favour BT for yet another win on Monday, and thus on to the next group. I do too.

In the interests, of balance, fair play and tolerance, and noting that there has been a noticeable increase of late, in the numer of posters postulating of the price retracing back lower, it's only fair to recognise their case in the interests of full disclore, rather than the forum becoming a one-way street only.

So, as well as 231 sealing the bull argument for next week, I should point out that for bears, all they have to look out for tonight is a close on 227 or lower to "seal the deal" for the bear case and the cancellation of this very blue bull up trend.

That's a massive and dangerous move closer from yesteday's 222, that I posted of. The competition heats up the higher you go. 227 for bear. 231 for bulls. Trend suggests blue tonight.

As per usual everything I post is a very peronal view and above all IMO only.

... into the 230's. Bull trend is healthy well, and on track for further positive momentum.

Was going to post last night that all it would take as a bare minimum today to set next week up was to close as a minimum on 231 (actually had the high fractions of 230 as the bare minimum but 231 would "sell the deal" beyond argument.
- Then I cancelled posting it because I thought No! That bearish 231 kid will be rockin' and a rollin' and jiving and give him false hope of a down turn if it fails to close on 231.

But truthfully, closing the week on 231 is cause enough for a rockin and a rollin' into next week. Closing today on anything higher changes the song to Dancing in the Street.

Seen this DC?

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/870186/bts-fundamental-value-is-overlooked.html

Normally I no longer like posting links as I've come to the conclusion they're just someone else's opinions.

But I regard this as calm and even-handed, with a lot of good info, it's a long read, so allow time rather than give up before the end.

American CFA qualified guy, so it includes a fair dollop of balance sheet analysis.

Oh hi, missed your post there DC.

Ducking under 200 is a psychological strong point, par excellence.

First it would have to go back and play with 200 right on the line over at least several visits IMO due to that strength.
Although the long term trend lines support your case - or at least they did until the momentous news came in that the CEO had been fired. Not enough factoring-in of that event is beiing considered alongside those long term trend lines. Market sentiment has changed subsequent to the CEO firing. Everything has changed - or has it? That is the question. I look forward to the coming battle with relish. Nothing is, as it once was.

It's still well within the confines of "market noise", profit takers most likely, if nothing appears to contradict that.

Bear in mind, when it hit the mid 120's in the last couple of weeks, that was in actual fact the all-time highs - ever !

- And the first such an area has ever been achieved since it launched almost 3 years ago. Check out the 52 week high above - it's dated as occurring just barely a month ago. Some get nervy at 52 week highs and sell, others use it as a buying-in point. Swings and roundabouts.

Anyone getting in during ther summer of 2016 could have done so for 25p-sh. So when it hit mid 120's, they might have been thinking wow! 500% profit, and when a little retrace occured, those selling to grab their profit may have moved too much as a herd with the same thought - grab the money and buy back in at a bargain price

- so far, if that's what's happening they've played it right, but only speculation on my part (the bearish short term down trend in play right now, isn't though - that's fact - it's in a bear hug, until it isn't).

First noticed when candlesticks went bearish, then my short term trend lines, now the nmedium trend lines. Doesn't appear intent on halting anytime soon, but next week, who knows?

However, the really long-term trendlines are still very much in bullish mode. So, until, they change I'll go with market noise :)

And yet a day where the volume was under the average at approx three-quarters the average volume, so neither bulls nor bears wanted to exert themselves and 'go for it' today.

Coasting, with each catching their breath perhaps, maybe? However, still a strong performing close going in to the last 5 minutes.

If buyers were intent today then a close on or above 233p would have sealed it for me IMO. But at least it was no where near the lower 220's. Sellers would have needed to close near to 222p to declare it was all over for the uptrend, so at 229.45p close, up on the day - is it fair to conclude, bulls still in control?

I think so, even if it wiggles or zig-zags a bit from here, now and then, as per normal market noise, it's still in the middle of an overall bullish uptrend, until it decides otherwise. It should have enough energy for at least 237p IMO before questions need asking of it's next intentions. Unrealistic to expect the same fast pace through 230's as it's just done through the whole of the 220's.

Hi DC, Thanks for responding. So you see no value left in the balance sheet at all? I was expecting something - but you see nothing? NOTHING? Hmm....Interesting.

"...and book value is negative..."

- Really? Negative? Where did you find that?
I have The Price To Book Value as more or less in line with it's peers - and the wider market too as a whole with it's ratio metric standing at 2.15 on a 12 mth trailing update (2.26 for the industry median) and certainly not negative.

The Price To Tangibles Book is uncalcable for BT, so you've done well if you've come up with a figure for that category. What metric reading have you got for Tangibles to Book Value, then?

What do you think of BT's market beating ROC, ROE and Operating margin , which leave all it's sector and the wider market in its wake. Still see no value in any of those three?

Not to mention the excellent Price To Free Cashflow - no value in that metric either?

Or how about The Price To Sales, it's not to bad eh? Why don't you see those as bestowing value on BT?

And what about the absolutely stonking (Can't believe I'm bringing this one up as I hate it) EV to EBITDA?
No one but no one in the whole market average beats BT's Enterprise Value to EBITDA - Do you not think that confers some value?

Or how about Interest Cover - danger is when a company is below 2.5 in that metric measurement
- BT stands at 5.95 - come on now, surely you see just an itsy, bitsy, value in some places?

Net profit for 2018 just finished was up on the previous year, 2019 is forecast to be up on last year, and 2020 is forecast to be up on that. Not not much but at least it's up, and not down. It's forecast for a couple of years ahead to INCREASE - isn't that value of sorts?

You mention dividend might be cut - well maybe so, but it's well covered at 1.7 for this year and next, and is being met from earnings and is no drain on BT's operations, but "politically" the new CEO could cut it to show off in his kitchen sink report after his review, but don't for as minute think the dividend is unaffordable - it is.

Also, as you mention the pension deficit - and it is bad - but do you know £2 Billioin is earmarked to be thrown into ther pot this year? - that's a HUGE start to tackling the deficit - a huge start. Don't see any value in that? BT finally tackling it's pension deficit head-on? No?

Going to stop there as it's late and getting tired. Perhaps you could look in some corners of the balance sheet and see if upon a second look you don't think there is still a bit of value to be seen in the balance sheet after all?

Speaking from my own personal experience - It's unusual to see a share price go so bullish, so quickly, because of an imminent dividend - which is still a full month away before it goes XD. You'd expect a rise, closer to the time, but not a big rise, a whole month away, surely? Because if that's true, what price will it be going into the final days of the XD date?

This rise, to me, is pure market sentiment driven, and not divi driven. The market strolls up to dividends, it doesn't scramble, from a month away. Of that, unlike my reponse to your post, I am fairly certain :)

Hi matherdj, (This opening para which doesn't say much :) was written last, so might be repeating myself below)
Your questions are a little ahead of what I am posting on just lately, but will be spot on for the coming months. My personal opinions of BT are in a state of flux and open to change when reviewing the long term old patterns. Something happening quite soon (IMO only) will help me decide for ill or good. There is no right or wrong response. Some near events need to transpire to give guidance if positive change is full-on or just transitory.

--------------------

@ matherdj - "Velo, what's your view once ex div?"
I have a few,. each dependent on events/ issues that yet need to occur or not occur before that point, so will probably cover that point in due course, as events unfold, but for the moment my focus is on what happens next, once in the 230's. That I find key, even to answering your question with my opinion.

"...My concern was what would happen after as to me, we are still following a pattern of rally and drop.."

Are we? Still following those patterns? On the face of it, yes; but things have changed, the first test to see if those patterns of old are still in play will be upon us quite soon. It's the first of several tests I look forward to with optimisim for BT. But let it commence to unfold first, then we'll all get a better idea.

"..Things are a little different now we know GP is going,.."
Yes, no change to revenue, profit or debt forecasts - yet market sentiment has turned on a sixpence towards BT, suddenly everybody can see "value" in BT despite its long standing problems, where they couldn't before.
And the reason for that is down to one event alone - and no other; namely: . "...now we know GP is going.."

"...we have hit the 2month high of 231p so retrace is inevitable here..."

Oh come on, Inevitable? Really? Because it intradayed up to 231p?

Today it broke straight through 2 (pivot point) resistance levels - 225p and 228p.

Not one resistance level but TWO in one day! Does that sound like weakness going into tomorrow?

The third pivot point resistance level I had down as 235p. Yes, it touched 231p at one point today, so in essence it pole vaulted over 2 resistance levels and came to rest clear of the second, in readiness for the next challenge. Bladdy good job I say! - That's seeing strength in action that is, no sign of weaklness yet. If it rises just 1p tomorrow, then you might have a point.

(The 'mechanical' pivot points are calculated by formulae alone, which are not a be-all and end-all, they're just for fun, which I sometimes use as an additional aid, and actually change every day, unlike hard support /resistance levels which are set in stone and can be seen by eye, when you look to the left of the historic price action).

So they were my personal targets for today and not for public consumption.

That said, that does not, to me, indicate exhaustion just yet. You might by chance see a bit of profit taking, but market sentiment has changed to a raging bull mindset, and any sellers on the cheap tomorrow will, I believe, be gratefully vacuumed up by voracious bullish market sentiment tomorrow. Had it failed to even breach the first resistance level of the day, your post would carry much weight, and I wouldn't even be posting this. But if it is to succumb to profit takers then IMO - you're too early to expect it just yet, you might as well say sometime in the remainder of this year, that would carry more accuracy - but straight after a 2 resistance levels broken in one day? Neh.

Also see my posts below on this quickly demolishing all of the 220's due to the need for ther SP to 'fill the gap'. That's why IMO the rapid march through 220's has occured so fast. The march will calm down somewhat in the 230's where IMO a big test awaits the SP - a test which I will expand on elsewhere in due course in other posts.
231p doesn't complete filling the gap. I could be wrong on this occasion, but hey - in for a penny :)

The total volume for today was bang on the long term volume. Not below it, nor above it, but bang on the average.

So it wasn't an exceptional day for volume, merely 'average'.

Not wise to believe the totals for either sells or buys as the computers take a "best guess" at them based on each price obtained. Many's the time I've seen my buys listed as a sell and so have countless others.

The volume ended the day in positive blue, so there were more buyers willing to accept a higher price from sellers that's all. For every buyer there must be a seller. There is no shelf with a stack of shares waiting to be bought. It's balanced - it's just that some days buyers are willing to pay a higher price than yesterday and vice versa for sellers.