Member Info for Velo

- WOW !!!

17%+ increase IN ONE DAY?!? That's way beyond my ken, or any kind of handle I can bring to bear on understanding this share.

Maybe too rich for my blood, as my style of investing dictated that I sell out when it retraced alarmingly. So perhaps I'm not cut out for these type of hot shares.

I prefer some sort of self-perceived control. Can't abide sheer luck of the draw. Who, anywhere in the world could have forseen a 17% rise in one day as perfectaly acceptable?

Talking of control. - 80p/90p - I refer you to some of my earlier posts. It's hanging betwixt 80 & 90 - that's the area I was yapping about in previous posts. Be interesting (as in very) to see if it can sweep through this area with the same abandon it's just shown so far today, in the coming days/weeks.

In one day it's shot from just under average meandering relative strength index to the very foothills of the overbought camp. And plomked itself right in the middle of that 80/90 area that frightens me. Longs will need to see it brutally dispose of this 80/90 area, to rest easy.

Again, wow for today! Just wow!

Should add - just glancing at today's price action and what a lovely response by the bulls by early afternoon holding at 220p.

It was 2:30pm so if the day had gone on to close on that, it would have been good news for tomorrow, but from approx 2:30pm-ish the bears came back on really strong, and sent the price down all afternoon without let up, and kept the pressure on, right into the close. So it's advantage bears on opening tomorrow.

Hi P/Player,

Yes, short term is, and has, clearly abandoned ship and gone to the dark side; no question of that.

Medium term is battered to hell as of tonight, and is looking like an extra from the film: Rocky - black-eyed, bruised, streaming with blood, but still by a sliver, bullish; thumping it's gloves together then beckoning and grunting "Come on" as it staggers wobbly round the ring, on the very last legs of what is still bullish.

Been here thousands of times and I won't jump the gun and predict it failing as many a time, it kisses and bounces off up and stays above water. One either sticks to a strategy or one doesn't.

I'm done jumping guns. It's still bullish - just - barely!

It's not over until the fat lady sings, yes the the medium term looks all but done-in, but it still registers as bullish. So my reply is - the medium term is still bullish.

If a positive is needed from tonight's close - it neither leaned towards the bearish support of 214, nor closer to the bullish resitance of 222p that I mused on yesterday - it's slap bang on the pivot point itself. In otherwords - it's chosen to close on "indecision". Which as often as not, IMO, nearly always means indecision in continuing on the path it's already following; and as it's on a bearish path, that must mean tonight it's indecisive in continuing in that vein. You can 'force' a positive out of that I suppose.

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Pivot points for Thursday, IMO - looking decidedly easier for the bears - all they have to do is close on or below 217 and the game continues in their favour, If perchance it's a good day and closes on 220, or better just fractionally clear of that, then it's likely game over for the bears. The room for manouvre is getting the pivoit points closer and closer, and all adds to that indecisiveness by the market.

- So it was another ambush by the bulls on the bears - again. This is looking awfully good as a measurement test of the strength of bullish sentiment. Let's examine today's evidence. Down horrendously well over 3% at one point - You said it Mr Beaky!

A big drop on opening down to 216, then a feint attack by the bulls at 8:30am and the bulls took it back up momentarily to 219, but the bears were intent, and ran unhindered all the way back down to 213 - or were they "allowed" to run unhindered???

Because what happened next was a similar replay to yesterday, When today's perceived "floor" of attack was reached the bulls showed their strength and started buying up, left, right and centre, leaving the bears dazzled, and up went the price, and what the bulls had ignored as easy pickings on the way down, now they wanted, up it went all afternoon, leaving the bears once again feeeling as if they'd been out-poker-played.

So, from a disaterous low of monmentarily 213 this morning, it closed the day back up at 219.

Now just look at that long, long, tail on today's candlestick. What does that suggest to you? And after that go look at the candlestick for yesterday, Similar thing - a decent sized tail to the bottom side.

In other words the bears pushed the SP real low - but on both occasions the bulls came out and chased the bears all the way back up to the top. They sell low - and the bulls are vacuuming them up by the barrow load.

Today's volume - for the first time this week and in over a week since this retrace started - closed bang on the long term average! No flakey, iffy, maybe, volume today. It was the full Monty! They took the price off the bears and chased them all the way back to 219 by close - on serious volume - and no mistake. Ergo; The bulls are serious.

That's not to say the bears won't attack tomorrow, as it would have needed to close on 223 (IMO) to silence the bears for the forseeable.

Those wanting to see the bears finished off tomorrow should be looking for (IMO) a close on no less than 222p preferably 223p. For the bears, life just got a whole lot harder - if they want to keep the ball in their court, they have to close on 214p (IMO) tomorrow or lower.

One other thing. Unlike yesterday and some previous to that, the bulls today, chased the price up all the way to close. There was no late offensive into close by the bears, as per last night. The bulls were still pushing the price into the close.

And that at least - is a positive. I'm now left wonderting if the bulls can flip this bear trend by Friday. Battered as the medium trend is tonight, it's still bullish, but narrowing each day.

Ally @ "anyone know what volumes are being traded on these down days?"

- Since the commencement of these latest down days commenced early last week, not one single day has been average volume, or even above average - they've all, every single day of them, been decidely below the long term average volume.

Hmm live prices at 216p now. Jobs to do so leaving it there.

Little bit of a fight-back occurring right now. Is this it? Yesterday's replay? The bulls come in strong on a perceived low floor in the teens?

215p? In the time it took me to post below it travelled through 214 and 213! That''s a helluva an intraday % drop so far. Wonder if the same thing will happen today as yesterday and an intraday low will set the bulls off on a buying spree again?

Makes one wonder if BT's approach to their first choice preference for a new CEO has been rebuffed and they're now on to 2nd and 3rd preferences? Of course PI's would be the last to find out.

If it was the EE guy as some on here and in the media have mooted, then it would surely be a double-quick appointment as BT control his contract?

I'm seeing 215p currently on live prices. It's taking chunks out of the bullish medium trend, my last weapon of defence against the bears :(

Reviewing the price action this evening, and I ask: What was that at approx half past noon? Were you around, did you notice?
The day opened at 223 (slighty higher than Friday's close) and without much ado or intervention, drifted lower and lower until it breached 220 and entered into (Cue Jaws theme tune) da-da - "the teens" actually touching 218 by shortly after noon - where some sort of institutional fund algo alarm-bell kicked in and then - "it" started.

From approx 12:30pm onwards, where previously 219 held no interest for bulls, nor 220, nor 221,. nor 222 - all which could have been purchased easily on the way down - were now suddenly extremely attractive and, up quite smartly, in one direction only without breath, the SP climbed, from 218 all the way back to 222 by approx 3pm-ish, it started to curl over from then on, and without much further intervention from the bulls, the bears took back control, closing the SP down on 221

Somebody below posted over the weekend that they thought the SP might only retrace at most to 210p and recover.

Well today was very interesting if that opinion is shared by others too.The effect from just after noon to 3pm was most marked and resembled a sharp V reversal, could almost make a case for a 'cup and handle' pattern, but let's not go there as they're supposed to signal explosive growth, besides cup and handles only occur over months or several weeks. (Seriously: I'm not into cup and handles, nor head and shoulders, flags and/or whatever et al).

But that's what my question is framed around - what happened at mid day??? No effort from the bulls all last week, nor all this morning - BUT as soon as the SP drifted into "the teens" out came the camouflaged snipers and the bears were shot dead as they raced for cover.

Can anything be read into today's price action? Is it too wild a suggestion to imply that the "teens" is the area where bulls have set bear traps, and where they'll pounce; and thus end the retrace once the bears realise the bulls WANT the teens?

On paper the SP looks distinctly bearish - short term; as short term trendlines are fecked, but medium term are still healthily showing the SP is still in a bull trend and all last week and today is nothing more than just nervous 'market noise'.

Also the afternoon volume looked far, far, healithier than this morning's so was taken aback to discover the volume for the full day was distinctly low - not even half the long term average!
Low volume = you're not supposed to take price movements ultra seriously.
Above average volume = is serious intent by the market.

So, duh, dunno what to make of it all.

If tomorrow, Tuesday, sees (for me only, IMO) -
219p and the bears are intent on hacking their blood-thirsty way through the teens.
But close on 223p and that noon-day-teen grab was no fluke, and would show the bulls are back in town after taking a full week's holiday, and possibly a trend change in the offing. Whatever :)

Not from uncle Fran! Tsk! Sounds right gay! Must have been a gremlin or a zombie sneaking in to mess with my post somewhere

- " From uncle Frankenstein's castle"

.... is for zombie hunters, wooden-stake weilding vampire hunters, werewolves - and chart hunters.
So treat this post in the same category as you would UFO's and general conspiracy-moon-landing-mayhem. If you can't read it in that vein, stop right here.

Tried to clarify my thoughts on this week's turn to the bearish side and had to actually print off some charts, by first pasting them to my Desktop Publisher, resize in proportion in order to leave some clear space to the bottom right corner of the page, then print off, which I never do, and finally now there was space (as on the computer the SP was so low and close to the bottom right) I drew in the same proportion, where I thought the final battle of Armageddon and the four horsemen of the apocolypse all meet up with the long-term down-trend for the final and absolute, big mother of all battles over BT's share price destruction, the breaking of - the big 200.

Thought the recent top side of 200p was a little early but after tonight, now realise it was only barely just fractionally so, and using the deepest troughs of the drops I have meeting up at 200p as imminent and due before the end of July, and the more plentiful, not as deep bottoms, indicating as due right at the end of July.
So let's say for a clean date - by August 1st latest.

That doesn't mean I personally think the SP is going under 200p by then, more that "theoretically" all roads point to the SP being over run and due to have hit and taken down, 200 by that date, or ready to do so from that date on. (If you believe nothing has changed and "now" is just a mere continuation of the past couple of years in BT).

So the longer the delay in retracing to break 200p the greater the bullish sentiment in BT. In fact as August progresses I have all roads from hell pointing to well, well, seriously below 200p - If "now" is behaving as it has done for the past 2 and a half years.

But is it?
I am of the opinion the departure of GP has changed sentiment towards BT in a big way and the SP is at the foothills of a long, torturous climback - should the new CEO prove to be adequate, and therefore the only thing standing in it's way is the destruction of the long-term down-trend to fully restore confidence (which effectively means bettering the institutions fav 200 day moving average which tonight stands at "only" 241p. Get to 241p, hold - and continue building from there - and it's all over for the big long-term down-trend.

So what's this week's little bear trend to be? The portent of worse to come, the harbinger of doom, or the opening of the door to let in all those who missed out in buying at circa 200p because they thought it might break below it, and would dearly love a second chance to do so, and thus save the SP? Which? Personally I can't agree with the bears unless the medium term trend go bearish, and it hasn't yet.

- Oh - and all IMO only. There, that's your bedtime nightmare story read for this evening, from uncle Fran

Very nice to see my holding in PHNX back showing a blue gain in my portfolio.

Which begs the question: In my portfolio the total shares etc., are now showing as complete and available to sell, add, or whatever - so how soon can the ii's sell theirs?
Has it been stipulated anywhere that the institutions are prevented from trading their new shares for 3 /6 months or so, first?

It seemed to happen like that last time out. Pleasant attempt at recovery in the diluted share price - then it started - the selling, and down went the SP to near the special /RIssue price. Anyone know if there's a time/date-caveat for the ii's?

Don't see anything wrong with your perspective in your post @ 20:11pm - If you check back far enough last year, on here, you'll find posts of mine where I posted of making a modest £1k profit here or lost £25 there - as they were long (spreadbet) positions in a generally down trending share, and when it turns away from uptrending you have to grab your things and jump out of the way of the oncoming train, pronto.Ultimately though you can't be watching your shares in a decent sized portfolio so closely all the time so need to invest for the longer term, in hopefully a decent share. A little fun whilst you're waiting though, does no harm.

There is still that big long term down trend to be dealt with though. There has been a change in sentiment (IMO) with the firing of the CEO initiating it. The trick is to attempt to measure how strong or not, that sentiment is.

Wanted to add - a few weeks ago I speculated on the current SP climbing to reach a major point in it's attempt to close what I saw as a former Gap-down. I speculated on that being somewhere in the high 230's. Didn't say that 237p+ was the initial point I had in mind and I would be like a cat on a hot tin roof the longer the SP travelled north of the high end 230's. I also posted that the relative strength was at the upper ends of it's travel (it did 'cross the line') earlier this week so I was more convinced than ever, it was at hand, and that the high 230's would be "it" - not the end of this bull run, but possibly a decision-point as to measure how strong this change in sentiment is. Well it never quite came off as it commenced retracing from the lower 230's - so I'm still convinced of one thing - it will be back to close what's left of that gap. One either believes in 'filling the gap' or one doesn't. It isn't science - it's opinion based on general observation, nothing more. Many knowledgable investors disagree and claim no such thing exists - just to put some of my beliefs in context.

My mindset is - It will be back - to fill that gap. Filling it 75% simply won't do - it will be back to finish the job! Don't know when, just that I believe it will.

Well, that close of 223 is unarguable - the ball is definitely in the hands of the bears. Short term, I'm not expecting an immediate resumption of the uptrend. And won't be surprised if it floats lower. In fact, expecting it after these past 4 days, of steady drift towards the bearish camp..

But here's the thing - until I see to the contrary, I still believe the medium trend is still in a bullish uptrend - in between there will be noisy days /weeks where it will be difficult for logic and or reason to inform as to why the 'sudden' change. The media can give you endless reasons - Brexit this, Brexit that, interest rates, China and US trade relations deteriorate, USA/NKorea, Russia/UK relations deterioriate further, EU is toughing up agasinst the UK, EU is softening towartds the UK, etc., etc., - endless - so why bother?

I take note of the news but have never ever sold or bought a single share because say, interest rates did this or that. Yet the media says that's what happened and will offer any mix of similar as the exact reason on that day for the movement of the market. They never announce it beforehand - only cobble it on afterwards - to make the world "fit." So speculate away on the reasons why the change to bearish trend; you're explanation is as good as the media's, because if the financial media was generally right, all you'd have to do to get rich is buy media share tips.

Of course the medium trend can now also turn bearish, and (one of) the first warning sign is the shorter term trends turning bearish, as they are tonight/all this week to date. If you fancy day trading then take notice, but I prefer to follow the medium and longer trend, and only use short term trends to assist when I'm already thinking off either selling or buying. In other words, make your decision beforehand - not because of a sudden change as you only do that when it's possible to decide which is market noise and which is a full market change in sentiment.

223p tonight, shows the SP destroyed 2 intraday supports all in one day. (226 &224) so it's pretty conclusive that bears rule now - for the time being.

And yet I'm still bullish on BT.

I believe there will be a point, that will appeal to the bulls and once again, the shorter trend will turn again as bulls become dominant. When the medium trend changes - so will I. It hasn't yet, so nor will I.

But short term - yes it's gone a bit of a bummer - or if you're in another frame of mind, it's going to offer some nice buying-in points in due course.

Only just seeing your ADR post, Pacey. Bit late now, so no time to reply fully - but I don't get your fascination with the study of American Depository Receipts. The tail does not wag the dog. They do not indicate the future direction of BT's SP - The home country of the share (UK) is the dog that sets the pace and wags the tail - not the ADR's.

Will explain further my viewpoint another day, as too late now, but I'd be fascinated to learn what benefit you've derived from monitoring of ADR's, as mostly I have no interest in ADR's - they're for a very small market of BT's shares.

Of course don't know too much about them (apart from US banks having to buy BT shares here in the UK in advance for onwards distribution and sale to those US citizens interested in ADR's only). No one else can buy them, they're for US citizens only, as they're converted into $'s.

If you've made a study of them and found something that works for you, I'd be very interested in hearing of any succesful arbitrage you've discovered in them. I'm assuming sheer chance and luck that ADR's close up for instance and by chance BT opens up the next day also - all part of the same trend in BT's SP is my uninfomed opinion. But then again I don't know much about ADR's it's a US thing.

Strange that of all the days the SP moves down - significantly, it does so on the day before the annual general meeting RNS for BT (Have actually seen Thursday as the day mentioned in Edinburgh) and GP's final public presentation. M&S had theirs today and announced additional closures to those already announced previously.

So, today's bearish close in the SP had me musing on whether tomorrow being BT's AGM, (or Tursday) whether there might be something 'insiders' are second guessing on.

Whatever, such a drop the day before the AGM is either a cause for concern or completely coincidental. What is it those TV detectives are fond of saying? - "Coincindences? I don't believe in them".

Yesterday I posted that the line in the sand for bears to claim the day as theirs would be 230-ish. But not only did they break it - they camped up on the lower supporrt of 227p! That's decisive. When the SP intradyed to 226p effectively destroying 2 support levels, I feared the worst to come, but it closed on the second, so tactics.

Is it nothing more than a play ahead of an important day tomorrow for BT up in Edinburugh? The media have been releasing titles over the past day or two saying "BT bids farewll to the wrong man with the right plan" etc.,

Whatever, I'm of the opinion this bull run is so strong - it might even be some sort of double whammy by the strong bulls who are "greater fooling" the bears into dropping the price so that those instituoions wanting more can move in swiftly once they see a bargain or two back in the 220's (or even 'teens?)

All that aside, the volume for today was below average, another sign not to take the drop too seriously. Even so, when an intraday support or resistance is broken it often is an indication of future short term travel.

Some numbers for tomorrow, Wednesday. Ball back in the bulls court? Would need to close on the right side of 231p to confirm IMO.

If the bears do truly have the ball in their half, then they'd need to close on 225p or below to keep momentum on their side.

The trendlines have NOT capitualated to the bears, so further confirmation of a few more days clossing down would be needed for that to happen.

I think this is just a game to entice sellers, only to see themn vacuumed up by eager buyers.

"...ready to lead into Wednesday.."

Tsk! - ready to lead into TUESDAY, duh!

And -

"...for the bears with them now looking for 230P, IMO)

Should have specified for Tuesday only -
"...for the bears with them now looking for 230p ON TUESDAY, IMO)

and ( IMO ) the day closed with the bull case still ruling for BT.

It couldn't deliver the 233p I was personally hoping for, but fractions under 233p is good enough to keep the bullish uptrend on track, ready to lead into Wednesday, looking for further gains.

Volume looks distinctly about half the avarage for today, so a bit of easing up by both sides after a strong week last week. And that's had the unfortunate effect of making things easier for the bears with them now looking for 230p IMO, as their line in sand.

Whilst I would like to see the SP close on 234p tomorrow, I'd still accept as a minimum 233+ to 'prove' the SP is still strong enough to keep the bull trend in play.

Not a serious indent made by the bears yet. And no serious back-sliding by the SP, so as far as BT is concerned, it's still a case of; bulls rule!