Member Info for Velo

Hmm it's opened by near 10p up.

The Reuters news link above is quoting that dire 24% fall in profit but does not clarify if that is worse than budgeted for or was expected. It's just dire regardless.

Well I found it difficult to find the group consolidated revenue as it's all net profit this and net income that, which was mostly dire% apart from noticeable success such as Moneybarn.

Think I found it and I make it 7.5% down on last year but all these new FRS accounting procedures muddy the water.

Still not sure as in such a rush before the 8am deadline that I've read it correctly.

Whatever the decline in net profit for the 6 months is absolutely dire - but I have no comparison to gauge against what was their budgeted forecast and whether it's better than the decline they were expecting or worse.

Forgot to include the following -

The difference between last year's results and this year's forecast is -5.3% down overall. That was the guidance given to the market.

So, as a rough rule of thumb if the update tomorrow morning is greater than revenue being worse than 5.3% down, then it's likely the SP will drop on opening/during the day.
And if the revenue is not that bad and better than -5.3% down then it's likely the SP will re-rate positively.

I suppose there may be differences with interim compared to interim rather than the whole year but for a speedy rule of thumb it's better than going in to tomorrow without any expectations upon reading the trading update.

So, in a nutshell looking for a decrease compared to last year's interim's results of not worse than -5.3% down.

Coincidentally Pacey, I have 237 as the personal price to beat tomorrow and would like as a minimum to see it close proud of 237 if possible.

And it's in the mood then 239 I have as the next "obstacle" to trounce - or just sitting on it would be great (tomorrow only).
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Trouble IMO is closing on 232 or worse still - even closing just a smidgen below that.

- Gentlemen, pick your weapons, count 100 paces, turn and take up your positions.

"I watched it drift up to 11 over recent weeks for no real reason;"

- Don't agree there Strudel. There was reason!
Mid July and the interim trading update release, once again showed decent increases to previous guidance.

What's the market to do - wait until the full year is in and re-rate then, and only then, with a record-breaking almighty jump in the SP? There WAS reason, good reason.

Who'll be at their screen (or still in bed but with their phone switched on :) for 7:00am sharp tomorrow morning first thing?

TOMORROW (TUESDAY) IS INTERIM TRADING UPDATE DAY!

It's important because by my reckoning PFG's time served in jail is up and should have been out on parole by now. If it's "bad" then sub-600 again. If it's good, then this low 600 area is/was the floor. Which will it be?

One of the reasons that the SP may not have responded better than I was expecting by now is a slip-up by the MD (not the CEO) in that call to arms in which he slipped-up by offending with that brief mention of an employee losing their life in the course of carring out their duties on behalf of PFG in which he also revealed/.said and I quote from the link helpfully provided below in a post from the media:

"...A staff notice sent out to employees at Provident Financial Group – and seen by the Telegraph & Argus – was slammed by some after Provident managing director Chris Gillespie made reference to the death of Tina Cantello in a memorandum telling staff the businesses was not performing well...."

*** "...telling staff the businesses was not performing well..."

- That's the bit that made me sit up and I expect the rest of the stockmarket interest in PFG too! It suggests the interim trading update may be below market expectations.

In fact the report even highlighted it further on with:

".....The email gives an insight into the doorstep lender’s performance as Mr Gillespie informs the workforce they have not performed well in recent weeks.
The memo informs staff the company has some “challenges to address” because a combination of bank holidays, Easter, good/bad weather and half term holidays have contributed to a change in the company’s fortunes...."

- So no need to be at your screen for 7:00am - as everyone's expecting the update to be poor???

Then again it may ne negative but not as negative as the market is expecting - and that could still herald a re-rating of the SP.

Consider: Year ended 2017 showed revenue peaked at £1196M.
The guidance given for the current full year is a decline to £1132M before picking up again in 2019.

But what if the interim trading update reveals figures down but not at the same relative ratio as the previous guidance suggests? In that case a "negative" update could see a positive re-rating of the SP.

However, unless it's a bit of masterplay by using the MD to mislead the market and reap the benefit on the day, I think given the previous management's woeful mismanagement to date - it's the real deal and the update may well be as Mr Gillispie stated - "holidays/bad weather have contributed to a change in the company's fortunes".

If that does turn out to be the case then the MD is an oaf and will need to be fired for being an idiot. Not to mention committing a crimial offence by communicatring market sensitive insider info to priviledged indiviuals.

Closing Part 2 -

.....So it can be done. Just not expecting it before the new CEO arrives that's all - but there it is hovering like low-hanging fruit just a few single pence away from tonight's close- it's doable! And then it would be party-time should it get there and keep building steadily from there. Doesn't need to fly past. A penny a week up would do just fine until a new CEO arrived.

Used Sunday's header as I'm still singing from the same hymn sheet, nothing has changed detrimentally to the SP to alter my opinion, so continuing on from there, for today -

. MONDAY!

Despite posting last night of being hopefully expectant of a minimum close of 240p, well of course it didn't, but all is still good. 235p is not the low 230's (in fact I had 230 actual as that "low 230's") So it wasn't breeched and as it lies tonight it sits on the midway pivot point of 235 - so a case can be made that it did opt for a breather by closing on 235 - no damage done, and still all good to go for Tuesday.

For a moment this morning I thought it might be a case of one of those "Exhaustion Gap-Up's that signal the demise of the bull case, but that was when it was toying with 232/231 for longer than I cared, etc., The support held and it never went anywhere near 230 itself. Good.

By coming back up from a poor start to close on 235.70p it's taken the SP back to the foothills of the Relative Strength overbought doormat. I am expecting a positive, bullish close tomorrow (Tuesday) but the fact that Friday's spiky Gap-Up propelled it so far in one day, means that the rise is date-stamped, and so no expectations of big jumps from here etc., I do though expect a bit more from here on - but eventually a trimming of the SP.

One good thing about that big overnight jump on Friday morning is that the area of 224/225 to 232 will most likely act as support/brakes if that eventually does become the case, so all good there too.

And that leads directly to the pleasing realisation that going back to the danger zone of 200 is becoming more and more remote with each passing day of this bull phase. The SP visited 201 once, and only the once, then for a week or two in May skirted along the floor of 200+ a cause of celebration for longs - celebrating that it has not even thought about revisiting 200! Every time it dipped back into the "teens" - bulls gobbled up the prices on offer!

Short term trend and mid term trend lines are now both positively in tune - so that leaves the death star - the long term trend, who's just asking for a rocket down it's hatchway. That hatchway lies tonight at just under 239p - the 200 day average - the ii's fav decision maker. Break 239 and hold - and build on that and this share will see some real ii interest. The recent and current ii's buys are just the outliers, the first of many should the 200 day ma be put under the SP. Then the real work begins. It can be done. My best share currently at 170% up over 4 years (a straight bottom left to top right trajectory) has kept the 200 day average under the SP for all but a short spell of those 4 years. So it can be done. Just not expecting it before the new CEO arrives that's all - but there it is hovering like low-hanging fruit just a few single pence away from tonight's close- it's doable! And then it would be party-time (Final para Part 2 to follow)

Could only briefly watch from the sidelines at a distance all last week, so delighted with such a great day on Friday.

Reasons for the SP NOT falling on Friday's interim update which revealed a decline in revenue are more due to that being the expectation for the forecast budget. Since revenue peaked in year ending March 2017, last year revenue for year ending March 2018 came in lower. The market had received guidance that this year ending March 2019, will come in slightly lower still, yet again. Not only that, but forecasts for the year after ending March 2020 are budgeted to come in lower again. So all along the market has been prepped to expect a decline in revenue against each preceding year - and that's exactly what's been reported. I think the reaction is part that - no surprises, just within expected budget forecast range and a positive investor sentiment making its presence felt.

However that was still a helluva a gap-up on Friday morning and I put that down to previous guidance stating that this years switch to new accounting procedures would not impact the current forecasts (a worry for the market; could BT be believed?) what was it called again? Was it called similar to Mrs Brown's "FFS" new accountancy reporting? Or was it called IFRS 15?

The fact that the company has not reported worse than feared with the new accounting procedures in place "may" :) have added to the positive sentiment somewhat.

So the high 230's did indeed return to be revisited and closed that gap - job done!

(Warning /Question: Does that mean a future revisit to close Friday's gap-up and thus back to fill the low of the 224/225 area? Relative strength is nearing the foothills of overbought again, but whatever, deal with that if it crosses over)

A gap-up is a powerful thing, so if this Friday "explosion" is to have any legs I would personally expect to see a close on Monday of NO LESS than 240p !

If it was just some strange aberration then closing in the low 230's would for me, not signal a breather but the beginning of dashed hopes - but hey! It's a gap-up - and gap-up's reveal pent-up bullish desire - so 240p minimum, it is then :)

That Friday has been quite forceful in bending trend lines; quite positive they are now, where before Friday they were quietly slipping away negatively.

Expect a blue close for Monday - it would be rude not to!

I won't be at all surprised to see the SP close a £1 up on Monday. I have the SP as "fair" at circa £13/£14 now - without the new initiative announced on Saturday.
(£1 rise would still be a single figure % rise LOL!)

Update:
Inadvertently used prior day's close for PE ratio in post below. Based on Thursday's closing SP of 130p the forward PE ratio closed even higher than stated below at PE 32.9

"..now on an ex-cash P/E of only 14.5 for next year. . . . .the ex-cash P/E could fall substantially, perhaps even down to single figures..."

I have to pour cold water on the nonsense that some analysts put into "ex cash PE ratios" - it's usually some snake oil salesman analyst with a vested interest trying to convince the reader that a certain share is cheap and undervalued. That's why the truth of the time-tested PE ratio isn't good enough for them - it has to be fiddled with to give the desired results. They then ask you to compare this newly low valued ex cash PE ratio with all other shares - just so long as the "others" don't get the same ex cash treatment too as you'd be back to square one!

The forward PE ratio for KAPE is 31.9 REPEAT 31.9 ! not 14 odd, and single figures next year are pure fantasy by the analyst, whom I'm now certain must have holdings in KAPE.

The reason the PE is so high is that the market believes future trading results warrant such conviction in KAPE's future. Trying to sell KAPE as a cheap, undervalued, PE ratio company is a complete non-starter. It's high because the market believes this share is WORTH IT!

There's absolutely no need for sleight of hand trickery.

150 miles from home so only time for flash post STOP Excellent day STOP Volume more than 50% UP on long term average so no fluke STOP Serious money men moving in STOP Short term trend has microscopically just about moved fractionally back in to bull trend as of tonight STOP Outlook bullish STOP Still melting from travelling oop north today so after this sentence will STOP

Seen more positive recommendations for iWeb on these forums than way back, on the general review sites. Thanks for your kind words TL.

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" Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up - don't buy it. "

Thanks LA for confirming any institutions involved are free of restrictions (after some shares and their placings exercises, it became over the years, my default expectation on company fund raising schemes).

Was interested in your thumbnail expereinces of iWeb as looked at adding them years ago when searching for a cheapo transaction costs broker, but could only find overwhelmingly negative user reviews online. So back then, chose alternatives to add for new ISA's. Also tried IG's ISA platform as it too is only £5 per transaction but can not recommend it as I find their ISA platrform terrible.

Their spreadbetting services are absolutely fine, and I highly recommend them for S/Betting, as that was the sole reason I opened an acc with them, but hate their ISA platform with a vengeance; anyway opened that iWeb acc after relooking at their site shortly after your mini-review experience of them, so funds expected to arrive early next week in readiness to breathe oxygen into the acc. So, far, so good :)

Must admit I'm floundering and somewhat conflicted a bit after tonight's close; and leaning towards letting Monday/Tues unfold without any expectations, and an open, blank, opinion-free mind, in an attempt to let some clearer direction float to the surface.

I would have liked the SP to close at the high fractions end of 219 to help but it didn't, also whilst Thursday closed on the first support, a case can be made for that indicating that the steam is running out for the bears, as although intraday it broke through, the bears still didn't have the stregth to close below that support/ and likewise tonight the bulls couldn't get past first resistance and like the same condition the night beore for the bears, the SP closed failing to break through first resistance (220p would have been conclusive and definitive for me).

And the reason I'm floundering even though the SP closed on 219 is that volume was still under average at approx 75% of the longer term average volume. So both days of opposites, had "no serious muscle" behind either day with one closing on support and the next day closing on resistance - and neither breaking through but being kept in check, restrained.

- Additionally the now clearly bearish medium term trend (which could still turn out to be a short lived, false-positive) also robbed the 219 bullish close of real authority.

Ultimately I have to side with the bearish medium term trend and give every fence-sitting decision to the bears, however the last couple of days does show a levelling off, with much of the past 4 days closes, all within spitting distance of each other. Suggesting this sub appears to be coming out of it's short term dive.

. . .Then there's the shape of tonight's standalone bullish closing candlestick hinting at sunny uplands.... but then again, I'm still siding with the bearish trendlines until informed otherwise.

. . . Whatever, I look at the latest and last trend to go bearish - the medium term trend - and have to side with that
.......... Conclusion? Go back to the beginning of this post and go round in circles once more.

Night night, better than counting sheep eh? :)

Yes, thanks C/Mate, actually read that analysis this morning. The analyst reckons it's the quality high end, Dotmailer is succeeding in, not the 'Tesco' customer types such as the analyst himself who uses the cheapo versions by competitors and thinks Dotmailer is too dear, hence the analysts begrudging raised eyebrow at the good results.

Whatever the SP has entered overbought condition tonight. On such trading updates it would be safe to ignoire but given my perceived view on 90p being a resistance level I won't be surprised to see it fall back from here; or maybe not as it is a good result and no mistake, but I'm more than 'not-surprised' the SP parked up in this 80-90 hole - not a coincidence IMO.

Not good closing on 217p tonight. There's nothing positive left to say.

The bears failed to close any lower, meaning they couldn't pass the first 'gate', but nonetheless they reside tonight right on support with the bulls 'safety escape' further up and just out of reach.

The long term trend has overshadowed every bullish rally and breakout attempt for over 2 and a half years now, thus ensuring their failure before they got too far ahead of themselves, so when the short term trend went bearish early last week, the bulls had their work cut out for them. However, the medium term trend had built up a head of steam thanks to flat-lining for weeks along 200 and then that 200 to 230's climb meant it fought all last week and so far this week as a bullish medium trend - until today! Where it closed unmistakeably and unarguably - bearish!

So that's all three, and any other combo's you like, under bear command tonight and in in the bears pockets.

If you want an upside to that - then it's this: if you're looking for a decent cheap entry into BT or a top-up then you'll likely get in, in the following days to come.

The recent shape of the day's price action suggests dwindling interest by BOTH sides (volume was barely half today) and with the price slipping, day by day, it suggests the bulls are running out of breath faster.

ALL trend are firmly down, but can only hope the low volume means any instiution quietly increasing its position will now affect the price positively in such a low volume environment. So in essence the price is slipping on lack of interest more than a big push to the downside by bears, IMO.

If there's a big institutional buyerr on the prowl tomorrow then I'd be looking to close on 219/220 to register their presence on the scene. All the bears have to do to maintain control is to close on 216p.

Desperately, desperately, need an update on the hunt for the new CEO to restore confidence in the market - if that's at all possible at that level of recruitment; doubtfull but I'm effectively clutching at straws now.

- One positive though - even though it's advantage bears, the lack of interest/ low volume means each day's fall is small in its retracement - no whole 5p drops or similar in a day etc., Something I suppose.

Need a white knight institutional buyer on the scene and soon.

Thank you Petanqueplayer & Djnzloop (last night) - you're welcome

Well somethoing of a disappointing day today, and sad news to report..... Wait - I'll post today's price action in a seperate post, back in a mo'....