Member Info for Velo

Good rebuttal rivaldo. But I stick to my guns and dismiss Ex cash P/E ratios.

I also respect your well argued case to use them and put them to good use, and believe it probably does benefit your decision making and keeps you informed to the degree you feel content with. Just differing opinions, that's all.

No rights, no wrongs - just differing views.

Thanks for confirmation Pacey - was busy elsewhere so didn't know. And coincidentally BT's SP reacts to the news right on cue to the clock (just checking the price action) and immediately ceases retracing intraday for the moment and returns to the 230's.

Big question - will it keep the SP in the 230's right into close? Anybody's guess

But stage one complete.
Positive reaction to the interest rate rise.
If you ain't got a world class, terrible, huge pension deficit, you ain't getting a nice response today.

Sometimes it pays to be a badboy. Well not really but every cloud etc., :) :)

Hi PQ/Player, Your welcome, thanks for the compliment.

When you looked into N4P what did you make of that July 9th, RNS?

It sounded to all intents and purposes just like a regular profit warning IMO - if they had ever made a profit in the first place, which they haven't (it's been continual losses, year after year for the past 4 years, because it's a fairly new to market pharma stock - only listed on the lhe market last year).

The RNS warned of a key drug failure in tests. Can count many more red flags than green ones. Whatever, I'm absolutely hopless in these IPO launch cases that 'go wrong' after launch, so would love to hear if you draw a profit from it. (Always up for learning new strategies :)

I say "like" a profit warning because the SP immediately crashed approx 40% overnight - and like a profit warning hit share, the SP has stayed resolutely down since then. If it's going to behave similar to a profit warning hit share then it's unlikely to rise back to the full level of the night before in which the SP stood, when the warning RNS came out next day, either anytime this year, nor next, (If it continues to mimick a typical profit warning hit share that is).

Yes, it's oversold but in such a situation, I find the oversold can lift out of that condition like you're seeing today - in tiny steps, but, never really satisfies, and always eventualy peters out and dissapoints for the near foreseeable.

I'll be all ears to anyone that can make a half-decent profit, out of that mess in the remainder of this year.

Word on the street is that interest rates will go up today. BOE announcement at noon.

What d'you mean you never hang out on the street? Y'know the bag lady and the rough sleepers are all convinced the interest rate will rise today.

If they're right some shares will benefit immediately. Like shares with huge pension deficits for instance.

Anyone know of any shares with pension deficits? As they would appear to be safe investments today, but can't think of any?

If you see any shares with a pension deficit - shout out.

If interest rates don't go up - don't blame me - blame the word on the street.

Erratum in my original post on Wed here -

"...as I foresee Sept being 'possibly' a good recovery month for GNK."

&
"...That's what I'm planning for - balloons, bunting and party-time from September onwards. Well to at least cease retracing by Sept."

&
".....Want to do all my buying in August and finished by the beginning of Sept."

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I have a strategy for profit warning hit shares and I'm monitoring so many I've made a howler with the month of September.

Delete party-time by September - I now realise it should be from AFTER SEPTEMBER. So won't be topping up in August, but have left a limt-buy order for 450p this morning, as a just-in-case 'chancer' bid.

To correct: I actually believe the SP will continue to retrace through September even though August may appear okay.
All in all - just yet another poster's personal opinion, that's all - so no damage done, I hope.

Erratum!

"... - 55m added to the original 148m making 253m you see today!"

SHOULD HAVE READ : " - 105m added to the original 148m making 253m you see today!"

105m not 55m !!! Tsk!

- Look it was late when I posted, I tell you - it was late, late, late, and long gone midnight! And it's gone 1:00am now. Right I'm turning in now. G'night.

About to turn in for the day and find myself here per chance.

A question before tomorrow dawns - what price do you think GNK will CLOSE at tomorrow?

Just been checking last years similar divi for XD day (10th August 2017). The SP closed on the day before XD @ approx 662p. Here's the strange thing - upon opening the next day the SP opened well UP at approx 673p! (13p higher!)

- but then finished the day down at 652p

Only a 10p fall from the previous day's close but almost the full divi drop of 24.4p from what it opened at that morning.

And by the time it came round to payment day on 15th Sept 2017 and thus out of XD period the SP had never at any point closed any lower than that first day of XD day and looked like ending the period in good shape, but unfortunately about a week before payment day the profit-warning RNS came out and the price crashed terribly before the SP could reach payment day on the 15th Sept.

Conclusion? If the same thing happens (excluding the profit warning of course) and the SP opens first of all much higher before it falls, then it might not be as big a drop as I've speculated on below.

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Neah - it's gonna drop it's load big time tomorrow, isn't?

Chartist2 - Can't believe you're recommending that N4p to others - it's more than extreme high risk - I think it'll kill you!

You can't possibly be in profit with that one - big guess but I'm betting you're under water with it, right? Surprise me and inform me you're already in profit with it :)

May I say in the geentel veribage of where I hail from what my opinion of N4P is, to you, hopefully tongue-in-cheek as not looking to offend, and it's this - I think it's a pile of ****!

It is "oversold" at the moment, but that doesn't mean a worthwhile rise from the dungeon of any worth, is a certanty, but geezaloo - What a speculator! You gambler you! :)

Hi MEMoney - I thought for sure - Eeh this lad's got himself in a right old muddle. Let's look in to it and sort it out for him, and see where he's gone wrong.

And was I surprised. Nay shocked. Tempus has no clothes!

You've caught Tempus with his underpants down around his ankles good and proper, so much so, that you can see he wears knickers under his pants.
You should email him with your post (seriously) - he's messed up, and worse, mislead - BIG TIME!

And if anyone out there is reading this, take note that just because someone 'famous' writes for a national media outlet under a respected brand name - it still doesn't mean they are 'right' - they are in essence offering just another personal opinion, just like anyone else on a forum board such as this.

So thanks to those highlighting this.

For the P/E ratio you need the earnings per share, the price per share, and the market Cap. All three are adjustable to work out /obtain any desired future outcome, be it SP, P/E or MCap.

So which had MEMoney got wrong, I wondered?

I went back in time to dig up and confirm the shares in circulation circa June 2017 - and shock horror! It wasn't 253m it was 148m ! ! !

MEM is correct - it 's a phyisical impossibility with all available info on the near horizon to ever visit a £23 SP again - in anywhere near the time frame Tempus suggested by his uplifting close to his piece.

Of course in defence Tempus could counter, he meant in the next decade or so, and "win" by subterfuge - but I bet he's made the same error I have - and one that MEM hasn't.

Somehere in the past year, there's been a 70% increase in the number of shares made available!

I'm here on this forum because I'm doing a study on Profit-warning hit shares, so haven't delved into the nuts and bolts of PFG's past, just the trading results and Share price trajectory, but it's clear there was a money-raising exercise somewhere in exchange for created, additional shares - 55m added to the original 148m making 253m you see today!

EPS per share back in June last year was being forecast as expected to come in at 179.9p per share - hence the market endowing a £23 SP. on PFG (in actual fact the SP was £30.59 on the records I dug up for June 3rd 2017 with a generous forward PE ratio of 16 !! And sporting a M/Cap of £4.5B)

Forecast for earnings this year is just 51.9p pr share and for the go-go year 2019 it's 66.6p - a long way from that 179p per share. In fact because 2017 ended as a loss that 179p per share is no longer visible (and hence neither is that £23 SP :) and instead is replaced by a minus figure of -66p per share. So MEMoney (and Pelta) are both correct
- put that tantalising return to a £23 share price right out of your (and mine) minds. Exactly as others have posted - not gonna happen!

PetQ/Player - Interesting strategy. Well done you for banking another gain. Of course there's bound to be some on here with the view: But there's 'more meat on the bone here' - of which I'm one of them.

However if you're turning over 15% and 20% gains per investment every couple of weeks as you've done on those two shares then you're well on the road to matching Warren Buffett's 50 year batting average that's made him the greatest LIVING investor today - an average of 20% increase per year, every year, come rain or shine - for the past 50 years.

Can you keep it up for 50 yrears PQPlayer? (As the actress said to the bishop) that's the question :)

PS. Consider:

The divi payment is 24.4p GNK has always been a heavy dropper after XD.
So no wailing and a'crying when the SP opens at least 25p down tomorrow or later, to circa 480p's possibly 470p's. Say goodbye to the 500p's - until September that is :)

I've been quietly (unlike today:) in and out of GNK a couple of times over the past 2 years or so, and pocketed a nice little profit each time, despite originally buying for the divi as a longer hold strategy. So I thought and thought about buying before the XD day and bought a 1/5th of my normal budgeted buy the other day, with other tranches to follow, the further the SP drops.

I just couldn't contenance that the SP would continue retracing straight up to the last of a giant divi payout day, so went in early at 518p and watched as it dropped a penny or two by close - much to my surprise.
Surely tomorrow Wednesday, the last chance before XD, it will rise into the close of the day? I thought - but look at it - 509p as I post!

Burn this week into your memories. It's a classic counter to the endleess posts on every forum where the knowledgreable state with unbounded confidence 'expect the SP to always rise in the days before it goes XD'

Well not today, not this share!

Might sound peeved - but I'm not. Planned to buy the bulk of my buys after XD day and complete before the SP leaves payment day, as I foresee Sept being 'possibly' a good recovery month for GNK.

August I've written off, but couldn't resist a little tickle-buy to get some of that divi to offset any drop after XD day - just didn't expect it to do so BEFORE XD day!

That's what I'm planning for - balloons, bunting and party-time from September onwards. Well to at least cease retracing by Sept.

Quite prepared for 450 as a floor in August; maybe even a complete £1 further drop from here. Just my opinion, but if it does so, that's where the bulk of my purchases lie in wait - otherwise I enter September underweight. Want to do all my buying in August and finished by the beginning of Sept. That's my strategy - and it's already off to a poor start :) So you better hope the Sept part of it, if only for your own sakes, is more successful LOL!

"...The shares up 53p to 670p yesterday, were above £23.88 only 14 months ago. They could get there again...."

Yes, that's the future if all goes well, etc., etc., but what's it worth for this year, what's the upside, if updates continue to verify all on target to meet forecasts?

I've used half a dozen valuation metrics by all the famous gurus of yesteryear and those still living but am none the wiser as they all range wildly from £13.66 down to £1.51 - for this year!
So that was no help.
I did like the discounted cashflow metric from a free site (Simply Wall Street) that came up with a £9-odd calculation for this current year - but that was awhile back; used up my free visitor clicks there, so can't confirm if still valid.

As always with an undervalued share I went for simple - and looked at the forward PE ratio and compared it to how far below the average for it's market sector it is (not the general whole FTSE market), and came up with the top side of £8 - for this year, now that PFG can be assimilated back into the Borg secotor average (and potentially in the future even be above the sector average :)

(But I do like that discounted cashflow calculation so I'm plumping overall for between £8-odd to £9 odd :)
That's my guess for the potential SP for this year.

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Think Tempus was roughly looking at the SP just after the initial profit warning last year in the one or two days immediately following the Profit warning and the huge gap-down to that area, so not really 14 months but a bit less. Anyway £23.88 again? So, NEXT year is the go-go year - the end of 2019 is forecast for revenue of £1191m

The revenue achieved in the full year before the profit warning was £1183m and that was the market's 'picture' of PFG up to the profit warning and subsequent plunge. But the year in which the £23.88 SP is mentioned ie., last year, came in with £1196m.

And the year PFG starts to really motor (2019) is forecast to come in with £1191m

- So £1183m/ £1196m / & 2019 @ £1191m - spot any glaring disparities across all 3 years?

No, neither do I, all pretty much of a muchness. So it's tick-one for revenue in trading year 2019 being in the right vicinity for that £23.88 SP.

But here's where 2019 might be far, far, too soon for it.

Net profit in the year leading up to the profit warning was £262.9m
- and last year it was a £134.4m Loss!
This year 2018, it's forecast to come in with £128.1m net profit
But next year 2019 the forecast is for £179.6m net profit.

That's a long way yet to reach £260m-odd net profit before all this carry-on got under way.

So I think that £23-odd SP is in year/s after 2019, maybe anyttime from 2020 onwards???
(If the world is still in a general bull market)

"...The shares up 53p to 670p yesterday, were above £23.88 only 14 months ago. They could get there again...."

Yes, that's the future if all goes well, etc., etc., but what's it worth for this year if this year comes in on budget?

I've used half a dozen valuation metrics by all the famous gurus of yesteryear and those still living but they range wildly from it's true fair price being in the range from £13.66 down to £1.51 - So that was no help. I did like the discounted cashflow metric from a fre site that came up with £9-odd for this current year. As always with an undervalued share I went for simple and simply looked at the current PE ratio and compasred it to the average for it's market sector 9not the whole FTSE

Well. another 'meh' day. Nothing much ado. The SP is getting a bit fed-up.

It did close fractionally just a bit suspiciously unhelpfully though. Like investors, it must be waiting for the new CEO to arrive first.

Thank goodness! Been waiting for this retrace. Was in, back in the day and topped-up on the drops so that my average was just proud of 200p

Seen so many shares climb really hgh only to dissapate and dwindle away those gains that I started reading what others thought as it pased 400p for the first time, and made the classic mistake of actually taking notice of what one of the investment magazines said, who opined that the P/E ratio was far too high and that's why they now regard it as a sell (they sold out at 330-odd. By this time it was roughly where it is now as I type - north of 380's I began to wobble. And just like the magazine said it strted retracing, 370, 360. Couldn't stand to see these gains evaporate so when it got to 350 I sold.

Rather pleasingly it continued dropping after I sold, 340, 330, and I think but don't hold me to it, after 320's slightly into the teens.

I then thought, right when it hits 300p I'll buy back in, and felt very clever with myself, but it started climbing, pretty soon it was back to what I sold at, so if I bought now the whole exercise would have been pointless, wouldn't it?

Then it was 360 and I thought okay if it drops back to 350 I'll buy back without complaint. Then it went 370, 380, and I kept upping my buy-back price, until finally it crested over 400p once again and I was in dispair.

And now, at long last, like waiting for 1,000 years, it's coming back to me. I want this and I'm gonna 'ave it.

But first (uh-oh here it comes) I want to see if it goes past my old 350 selling price - LOL!

As a sidebar to anyone who regrets nor buying/topping-up in the low 600's etc., I would offer that of all the months to best try and catch the SP of PFG on the hop - it would be August. Not consistently but for many years when sentiment has been lacklustre against PFG, August has been one of those months that offered some quite noticeable retraces. Not every year - but enough to be noticeable, when viewed over several years, IMO.

However, as sentiment has now turned bullish for PFG it might be a case of that being consigned to history and you're left with the view that all spikes overshoot initially a little, so it might only drift back a small amount, before progressing further - or not, as will be its wont :)

Erratum: Typed "... so another £13m on top of H1's result appears to be an easy to-do fullfillment."

When it should have read " ...so coming in with £13m LESS than H1's result appears to be an easy to-do fullfillment."

Thanks for the handy precis of the webinar update, romaron.

You're right about the IRFS 9/15/16 etc., adjusting previous figures/current years, but the board assures it would make no difference to the year end forecast, besides I'm not an accountant, so look for as simple as possible.

And that's why I posted before 8:00am of the 'group revenue' decline against last year's interim being x 7.5% down (whilst the whole year forecast is for only being -5.3% down) as follows:

Interim to June 2018 = £572.5m
Interim to June 2017 = £619.4m and hence actually x7.5% down.

The forecast for this full year (2018) revenue is £1132m which means that H2 has to come in with £559.5m to meet market forecasts. The board have assured that they expect improving growth, so another £13m on top of H1's result appears to be an easy to-do fullfillment.

And thus the market saw no fear in H1 being x7.5% down on last year.

I guess that's why (one of the reasons) the market reacted positively to the update, as once out of 2018 and into 2019, the forecasts are for decent good gains under most headings. It had to come; the market was looking to reward, if the board gave it a chance to do so.

PFG's full year of being viewed as a dismal profit-warning-hit share is over.

Live prices - It's very nearly 10% up at the moment!