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There's only one reasonable question to be asked of the assertion that the long term target is all set for 2,100p

. - and that is: in which decade; this one or the next?

In other words define what you regard as 'long term', because I can just as easily opine the long term target is all set for 3,200p just so long as you don't actualy pin me down by having the audacity to ask for an actual date.

As that way, one can never be held to account, and you can forecast literally anything under the sun - like for ever and a day!

Oooh if only it wasn't XD day later this week, seeing the SP trending oh so absolutely luvverly jublery. Trend lines are good to go and hot to trot, but they have no idea XD day lies in wait.

The divi is 10.55p so at the random intraday SP above, that means Thursday's SP will drop down into the mid 220's. So think that now, beforehand, in expectation, to get "balanced" in thought (back to 220's) as that retracement in the SP means absolutely zero for bears, nada, zilch, nowt! And would be utterly "normal".

But what if the SP cruises even higher beforehand, right up to Wed night? I'm still of the opinion the SP will head for the mid/lower 220's XD day onwards, for no other reason than to close that gap I breifly mentioned a week or so ago, besides who wouldn't choose to get a negative out of the way in "controlled-handicap" XD time, rather than in open free-running time?

No, my concern is more that it retraces no lower than 220's and not into the teens, as BT has history of retracing far more deeply than just the dividend content alone. (Not concerned if it does, as I fully expect the sentiment-fuelled bulls to vacuum up any bargains that loiter too long below 220's (in the 200teens) - as the bulls have done repeatedly so far.
200-teens has so far proven to be death valley for bears, and bargain buying ground for bulls.

Remember this divi period last year? The SP kept on diving after the divi payment day completion. So, of paticular note, which is generally meaningless in virtually any other share, but would speak absolute volumes in BT's case is this:

Come September 3rd and if the SP refrains from retracing and recommences trending back up - then break out the party balloons, as that will be one big first in as many a recent year in BT's divi pereiod and would represent yet another serious positive sentiment reaffirmation signal. (That's what's 'supposed' to happen anyway, but BT picked up bad habits this last year or two :)

Much good stuff in BT's balance sheet, to give good back-up to all that.

So, in summary:

1) Hoping no lower than 220's from XD day up to Sept 3rd.

2) After Sept 3rd, in a gentle no-rush, in your own time expectation, no rush, whenever you're ready, fully expect the SP to drift back up to a 'reasonable' place, given that no announcement on the new CEO has been made yet.

That would be an uber perfect sceanario for a new CEO to inherit.

Tinlid @ "...However, I must admit that I was extremely surprised that Velo did not know of the recent Rights Issue by PFG. Surely, anyone who has the slightest interest in PFG would know that!"

Ahh, put me hands up to that one, you got me there bang to rights, Tinlid :)

Yes, have to own up and admit yes, I "sort of" already knew.

I saw mention of some share split/ placement/ fund raising/ rights issue, in amongst the posts when I looked at that spike and fall the other month and found the answer why, as it was well out of sequence with my Profit-Warning-HIt shares research. And that was it.

With 30 shares in my SIPP a dozen and more in ISA's not to mention a full 26 being monitored on the far left here of this site, and dozens and dozens on an A4 Word file of coming to end of Profit warning hit shares, ready to be monitored, my free time is limited. I didn't need to delve into the nuts and bolts to know there had been some sort of fund raising going on.

If I had, I'd have been more aware of that additional 105 million shares being added to the pool.
It doesn't alter my principal reason in monitoring PFG - to test the decades of research against 2018 live actuality.

PFG is late in coming out of the prison gates. That's the problem with "averages" They're scattered in a close proximity to the average without ever being to the exact day of the research. Learnt a valuable lesson through that trading update though -

When a profit warning hit share's time is up, be aware of any trading update coming out around the time that share is supposed to have already been relesased from purgatory, and is late doing so. That update officially put a royal seal on PFG's freedom papers - and set it free.

Just monitoring ths month of August here and I'm done - as I already have a good guesstimate of the likely outcome of how far PFG's SP % rise over the next 12 months will turn out - according to that research.

Don't freak out over me alluding to knowing the SP gain of PFG over the next 12 months
- That's just me showing off LOL! :) :)

"..I just mentioned n4p because it shows signs of a new long term uptrend.."

I doubt it'll come to much, not a full recovery (IMO) and if does, I doubt it'll ever get to 15p, nor defo get past 15p and only then if very, very, very, lucky at any point this year - 15p is probaly fine for you, if it does, with your low entry, but I wouldn't expect that even as a remote possdibility until approx January as a temporary dead cat bounce only, then revert to type if it contiues in this profit-warning mimickery - it's not going to be a full recovery to the pre-crash price of 23p

This kind of talk always pops up in a profit warning hit share, but they nearly always are false positives. I hope it does turn out to be a new long term uptrend for you, but I truly don't know about these minnows; but you do appear to.

I do though know something about profit warning hit shares, and they stay floored the full year apart from a noticeable dead cat bounce (Approx January in this case if does go the same way as the bigger MCaps).

Why a pile of **** you ask? It's based on fundamentals. Not a single good sign there. (Can't be with net profit loss year after year, after year, after....It does have one though, a good debt metric - in that it doesn't have debt at all - it has the opposite - a surplus! So you should be safe for awhile before it goes cap in hand seeking additional funding.

I suppose these experimental drug research type start-up's are allowed to misbehave, for years and years before they hit pay-dirt, but it would be like waiting for paint to dry to me.

Revenue is utterkly and totally unreliable: £2.26m in 2013,
then zero for 2 years running after that, didn't sell a single bean, ZERO!
followed by £1.61 revenue in 2016,
then last year it came in with just £0.11m (£110,000) - See? She -ite!

You've got to be a pure riverboat gambler with this one. But as I admitted the other day, these sub micro caps are not my forte, so if you can work them - good luck to you.

My prognosis? The uptrend you feel likely will IMOnly, peter out unhelpfully and the SP will sink lower or become rangebound in this 6 to 8p area, never really delighting. I think it's toxic.and I definitely wouldn't go round recommending it on forums to the unsuspecting - it's for out and out experienced gamblers only.

I'll be happy to be a monkey's uncle if it rockets into an uptrend, which I thnk highly unlikely, and will pop in now and then to accept my punishment should it behave as you suggest you feel it might, which is contrary to what I feel about it - which is dissapoint!

I'd also be happy if it did delight, as I'd learn something from your analysis style, but this is pure baregepole territory to me.

Hi Chartst2 and thanks for answering my query - that you are in profit with that pile of sh -ite. But only via the back door of equity exchanges etc., - not available to investors sniffing around at random right now.
Anyway Kudos to you, you're obviously specialising in these sub-micro mcaps. Gosh it's small isn't it? Think I have more cash in my spare wallet than the MCap of that NP4 stock LOL!

You then asked: "Velo, what was your question again?"

Eh? There was only the one. And you answered the question fully in your opening para. Thank you. So once again, well done you, you're in profit with NP4. Your investing strategies have done you proud. Thanks for answering. Okay?

- Of the two of you displaying "do not challenge the content of my posts mentality" you are the only one with the right to feel miffed as I did use salty language to describe your pride and joy, so sorry there; it was just a handy, colloquial figure of speech, or it would have been had the auto-moderator not blanked out what Mrs Brown says regularly on BBC TV, yet I can't on here. I mean what's wrong in describing NP4 as a pile of she -ite?

You asked me: " Who are you to ask and judge this? "
Is that a jokey laugh - or are you really saying you will post on a public forum and you don't expect to be challenged on the contentious content of your posts? I have to accept and not question?
Sorry, but that's not how life works.
But you'd make a great fundamentalist Islamic with your do-not-dare-question-my-belief-system :)

Why can't you separate my caustic comments towards NP4 and not take them on as somehow a comment about yourself? They were no reflection upon you. But you've responded as if I'd insulted yourself personally. It's only a blaady share, that's all!

I'm quite happy to have a debate on the pros and cons of NP4 - and I come fully armed to do so and give a good account. If you're confident of your choice why not post them and I'll post more fully on why that pile of sh -ite is in actual fact a right old pile of she -it?

(But we'd only bore to death the PFG investors on here so it would have to take place on the NP4 forum, where no doubt you'd be surrounded by like-minded souls) that's if you truly are that desperate to defend the honour of NP4 and NEED to silence critics of it, at all costs. But I've lost interest in it already.

Sensitive lot on here aren't you? Don't worry, If my posts cause offence, as I can't post this volubly AND research/ invest successfully as it always suffers, so it's inevitable I will slowly retire from this forum.

This particular forum feels like I've walked into one of those remote strange settlements where the inhabitants all turn out to be zombies or vampires, after dusk.

Night-night.

(Cont) -
"...You seemed to be reading things into it that were not stated. I merely quoted a source and the summary. Your dismissal of a reputable source was spoilt by you comparing them to yourself...."

No comment needed - You're leg pulling there, right?
--------------------

"...When Martin Waller edited Tempus he won Financial Journalist of the Year and although he has left the bar is set relatively high (you just need internet access and a password to post on LSE). I’d go further and suggest that Neil Woodford and Mark Barnett are better at this investing lark than anybody posting here..."

Again, you're herd following and impressed by "certificates of competence" which are utterly worthless in picking winning shares. Ever read a hiqhly qualified and revered economist on what the stock markets will do in their coming year? Laughable - every time, as it would be for any of us - can't be done - except by pure luck.
Ask the organisations that make the awards for the % gain results that their chosen journo winners achieved. It doesn't even come into their decision making process! It's based on how much industry respect they garner and writing ability - not the accuracy of their performance. Because if it worked we'd all sign up for that course that got them their "certificates". They still as a group underperform compared to the market index over consistent time. Warren Buffet will tell you that for free without the data I'm referring to. Write to the current Tempus and ask him what his past 5 years % performance is. They talk the talk, but deliver no better than average, often worse. Only a herd follower buys on tips from a newspaper journo!

---------------------

"...Short term traders have a different view to long term traders and if you’re expecting volatility and fireworks on PFG going forward I’d set my sights on other stocks...."

Don't know what or who on earth you're referring to there? If it's me then I'll quote yourself with your own words 'You seemed to be reading things into it that were not stated'

-----------------------

"... The article stated that the company now has top quality Directors and they need time to bed in and change systems and culture. It is a work in progress and the balance sheet has been repaired. Home Credit is returning to profit whilst Vanquis and Moneybarn are on the up. You ignored these and criticised the mentioning of an eventual return to “above £23.88” as being risible...."

Ignored? Good grief, I was not dissecting the article - only the final sentence of £23.88 as to whether it was credible or not. At first I thought it might be possible after 2020 onwards. But upon reading two following posts who disagreed with that view, I changed my mind and agreed it wasn't possible, but only perhaps over a longer period, perhaps 'a decade', maybe.

little bit left to follow then done :)

Well, I appeared to have ruffled some people's feelings here, judging by the emotional responses. One thing though, at least it's better than the echo chamber that was here when the SP fell into sub 600 recently :)

Thank you for the detailed response to one of my posts romaron. You mustn't take my post as some sort of criticism of you directly. It's not. You're probably better looking than me, a better person, a better this and a better that etc., etc., My post was simply an opinion based on the closing sentence of the content within your post - not you. Two posters disagreed with my initial conclusions and said so, but I didn't take offence like you have, and in fact ended by agreeing with them both!

Having said that, apart from your final two closing sentences (which I wholeheartedly agree with) there's not much in the rest of your post that I find at all credible and dismiss most of it out of hand and will take the time to respond to you as you have to me, as a mark of respect for your input. So this could go on a bit.

Right, overall I'm left with a distinct "impression" that you're a bit of a herd follower in your thinking - which is dangerous in an investor It was almost as if you were admonishing me (or anyone else) to even dare to have an opinion that didn't fall down and pray at the feet of the journo and fund managers you so revere. If you believe everything they opine fine -I don't - due to statistical factual research conducted by a variety of institutes that show decade after decade of analysts and fund managers, on average, consistently FAILING to perform better than the market index in their analysis of future performance of equities - and much worse, often perform worse than a private investor! So you can say they are more well informed etc., but that's what the research reveals, they're drowning in more data and info than the average PI can ever imagine and yet statistically they don't perform any the better for it. Over confident in their abilities is the conclusion. Please don't make me reveal the data. It's not online and I'd have to copy from a book; have some pity on my aching typing fingers :) I respect their knowledge - I deplore their record of accuracy. It's truly dismal. You know for a fact the fund manager you mention is the WORST performing manager over the past 3 years or so and has yet to earn his keep. His record is utterly, utterly, dismal - in a bull market! You respect that if you must but stop demanding I must follow your penchant for herd following too - I won't.

Wanted to end there, but I promised a full reply. So here's a few things you said, that I utterly dismiss out of hand as pure nonsense -

"...You seemed to be reading things into it that were not stated. I merely quoted a source and the summary. Your dismissal of a reputable source was spoilt by you comparing them to yourself...."

No comment needed - You're leg pulling there, right?
--------------------

"...When Martin Waller edit

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