Member Info for Velo

@ PokerChump - well I was going to post last year's Aug full divi period price action, that showed athough the SP kept on retracing after coming out of XD period on payment day (4th Sept last year) it surprised me by only dropping a further full 10p from the close of XD day (10th Aug) right up to Payment day exit. I thought from memory it was much more, so I binned it, as it means there is 'no spare' for the SP to play with this year; it's got to work for it! :)

(Suggesting maybe 220p max drop by this Sept 3rd (or 219p to be exact) if it follows suit - which it doesn't appear to be doing this past month or so, as this year the SP appears much stronger and healthier). Which is greater than I've alreay posted speculation on, of hoping that it doesn't fall any worse than 224/225p - but anybody's guess really.

It kept on retracing last year after coming out of XD period. So, all eyes will be on it lifting, not retracing come this Sept 3rd. That's the real prize. I think there's every possibility it could start "lifting" in the last days in the week leading up to Sept 3rd, but just don't know for sure.

But to answer your first question in one sentence - A very noticeable nasty cut into the SP this afternoon, in which the SP was really nice and comfortable at 230p - but in the final 90 mintes of today it just kept being sold down, possibly suggesting that might be the opening action tomorrow, for a bit, until the day gets underway, proper..

But if last year is anything to go by then no dip into the teens - only 220p as ultimate worse case scenario - but that's based on last year, so not caling that - just using it as a handy yardstick for the moment.

It blanked me after I copied this bit (so keep clicking) by Vodafone sticking it to BT despite "the industry" accepting it as relatively good news; but not VOD - here's them sticking-it to BT on hearing the news (Bit of a cheap shot by them in IMO)

Greg Mesch, chief executive of CityFibre which is a full fibre builder that has teamed up with Vodafone, argued that more is needed to stimulate investment from smaller players competing with Openreach in the race to install full fibre lines. He said that did not mean more public funds but a push to “wean the UK off its unhealthy dependency” on Openreach.

“It does not go far enough. The policy does too much to prop up an incumbent operator that is stuck in the Victorian age. More needs to be done to create a level playing field for all — not just pushing Openreach into a corner so they react anti-competitively,” he said.

Paul Lee, head of telecoms, media and technology research at Deloitte, said it was important to keep expectations in check. “The quantity of bandwidth we need should not be confused with the quantity we want,” he said

Managed to open it that time So quickly copy/pasted it - here's today's annouced cut back on copper upgrades bit in full:

BT SWITCHES FROM COPPER UPGRADES TO FULL-FIBRE BROADBAND.

* BT cuts back on upgrades to existing broadband network
* Critics say government should have set harder target
* Industry says plans are realistic

BT has cut back its plans to upgrade 10m copper broadband lines after the government abandoned its previous view that adequate internet speeds can be achieved by improving the current network.

Openreach, the BT division that owns the national network, will now upgrade 5.7m copper lines to its G.fast technology in the next two years, compared with 10m previously, according to a letter to its customers. G.fast claims to double the speed of a copper line.

Meanwhile, Openreach will also install 3m full fibre lines, where fibre-optic cables run directly to households, in the same timeframe, an increase of 1m over its original target.

The government launched its Future Telecoms Infrastructure Review at the end of July, which pivoted away from an upgrade of the copper line network and committed to rolling out 15m full fibre-optic connections by 2025, with the rest of the country following by 2033.

Openreach under pressure on fibre
BT has been under significant political and regulatory pressure to focus on full fibre cables, with critics pointing out that only 4 per cent of buildings in the UK are connected to such lines, compared with nearly 90 per cent in Portugal and more than 70 per cent in Spain.

BT has been accused by its rivals of spending billions of pounds on sports rights to bolster its pay-TV business while underinvesting in the country’s broadband network.

A spokesman for Openreach said it was already connecting 10,000 premises each week to full-fibre lines, but that it would continue to upgrade copper because it was quicker and less disruptive.

Openreach adopted a “fibre first” strategy last year and the new targets are a sign of its commitment. The new government target will require £30bn of investment from Openreach and other internet companies.

But businesses said the target was not ambitious enough, since the UK is already towards the bottom of the league globally when it comes to full-fibre connections.

Point Topic, a research company, predicted that there will be 500m full fibre lines installed globally by 2019. The numbers are dominated by China and other Asian countries which highlights how far behind Britain is compared not only to European markets but to global ones.

Can't see that link because it's FT subscription readers only, so if it's similar to the news I saw today it was about BT announcing a substantial cut-back on copper upgrades and pouring extra effort into full-fibre broadband installation which the report said was actually cheaper and a saving on agreed work on the copper upgrades.

Also today BT are creating 1,000 new jobs (customer calls jobs). The report said the market welcomed the news so I suppose that was approx when the SP responded by rising briefly into the 230's.

Good morning Freya,

Think you made a typo there when you typed: "...we are a little more cool, calm and collected...".

I believe the adjective you meant to type was "we are a little more dour-faced," yes ?

When Andy Murray was first wowing the world at Wimbledon a few years back what was the most common handle used to describe him not only by British media but media right around the world, do you remember? It was a celebratory: "The dour faced Scot has done it again!"

And so would anyone else too, once those infamous Highland midges get up your kilt.
Damn right I'd be wearing me underpants underneath me kilt.

Have a good one :)

Right final post for the night then gotta move myself. So - Tonight's close - Just great; a smasher.

Keen to see what happens tomorrow and Friday particularily. Very.
Never, on any other XD occasion since the beginning of 2016 and that non-stop SP retrace ever since, has a single "average" of the SP that can be attributed to a relative of the long term trend, sat under the heel of BT's foot as it does tonight by a visible, clear couple of pence!

Many on here think that of no importance - but it is to me.The distance above that 200day moving average is very visible now. (Equivalent to well over 9 months+ of average price action)

It just has to be brought up, in behind the scenes investment houses review teams. I think it's very exciting, but tomorrow it will most likely be time to say goodbye to it - temporarily.

I'm hoping that if the SP is intent on exceeding the divi content itself ( just 10.55p - so 11p to all intents and purposes) that it dumps no lower than 224/225 as that "fills the gap" of the last gap-up and closes it neatly. But technically you could say that at 240p tonight it's "the law" that it should only drop to 229p - tops. But when has the SP ever not taken a yard when only an inch was offered? I am looking for the unexpected tomorrow, and not in an unwelcome way, although one has to remain grounded to an unwelcome outcome. So 229p or 224/225 - no problemo.

1) If this XD period only falls the divi content only of (10.55p) - that will be one roaring success as, you tell me the last time BT only took what it was supposed to, without overdosing on a huge high octane retrace?

2) This divi period last year - it just never stopped diving when it was supposed to end, on reaching payment day (Sept 3rd this year). So, if the SP starts rising and/or just meanders after Sept 3rd that will also be another first in almost 2 & three quarter years! So if that occurs I expect big positive developments from then on.

3) If it dumps as far as 200teens? Still no harm so long as they get taken up quickly the bulls that did so every time in recent weeks/months when the SP went atraipsing there.

So that only leaves one big concern , if the SP continues to fall after coming out of XD period on Sept 3rd - just as it has done for the past couple of years on every single occasion to date. Nothing for it but to wait and see. All you can do, isn't it? BUT this is no ordinary XD period. I think it could behave in a manner that gives confirmation to this recent bull trend, as the real-deal game-changer I'm hoping it will be. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Can't disagree with a single thing in your well argued post Fleccy - apart from perhaps your very last sentence :) :) ?

Cont:
Hee hee, Tsk tsk! I will say this though, your research abilities need a just a wee bit of re-sharpening up.
This is what I found, although the whole issue of the "quantity" of 200day ma posts I made is unimportant to me; but it did appear so to you at the time, just can't get my head round why the sheer number of mentions was important to you, but anyway here are some dates :)

12th JUNE:
The big funds and ii's favourite 200 day ma is falling all the time and is currently at 249p tonight..... would this time be a genuine cause for celebration....
....The big funds do absolutely take great notice of the 200 day ma - so there's that to race for, before the avalanche of the big down trend runs down all before it....

30th JULY:
...So that leaves the death star - the long term trend, who's just asking for a rocket down it's hatchway. That hatchway lies tonight at just under 239p - the 200 day average - the ii's fav decision maker. Break 239 and hold - and build on that and this share will see some real ii interest. ......the first of many should the 200 day ma be put under the SP. Then the real work begins. It can be done. My best share......has kept the 200 day average under the SP for all but a short spell of those 4 years. So it can be done.

THIS MONDAY 14:42pm
Just noticed that 200 day moving average I was blethering on about the other week has now just drifted fractionally below 238p.....

THIS MONDAY 14:53pm
Some fleeting, passing thoughts, as I go get some work done, as I take in the 200ma - the 200 day moving average now under 238p? Eminently do-able (ie., the SP to break past in the near future months to come, and hold, and build on).....

THIS MONDAY 18:43pm
....Was just going to leave a gentle final. post for today, about a query to me on the 200 day sma's, but was totally unprepared for what's happened with tonight's close. It's an Oh! My! God! type of situation.....

THIS MONDAY 20:51pm
And the big piece post - prob the one you refer to where I just go on, and on, quite a bit, about the 200 day ma...

Hi Sairfecht - It's Scottish is it? Well this is going to be embarrassing (But first, never mind the 50% of the British people - what about the German House of Windsor? :)

I should have known as I too, was born in Scotland, but my family left when the pits closed and had to seek work in the coal mines down here in England, when I was 5 years old. (That's right - Forget Charles Dickens workhouses - in my day we all got sent down the mines at a very young age :)
Not a trace of Scottishness left in me. English through and through. Never watch Scotland play, but when England play an international - I don't just wanna watch - I gotta watch. A case of the Borg collective assimilation directive, claiming me for England.

Apologise? Gerroff, there's nothing for you to apologise for, it was humid where where I was typing too. I re-read this morning and wondered why I reacted as I did - it was nothing. So we both vented a bit. "I guess I’ve now made a mortal enemy" Why? It was nowt.

".. I have read your comments going back a month or two at least I think, and I don’t recall the 200 sma being mentioned (perhaps I should have gone back more than 200 days)?.."

Hee hee, Tsk tsk! I will say this though, your research abilities need a just a wee bit mof re-sharpening up.
This is what I found, although the whole issue of the "quantity" of 200day ma posts I made is unimportant to me; but it did appear so to you at the time, just can't get my head round why the sheer number of mentions was important to you, but anyway here are some dates :)

12th JUNE:
The big funds and ii's favourite 200 day ma is falling all the

[To follow....]

"Good closing price. Velo will be happy"
--------------------

- You can say that again brotherant! :)

When I saw 241p I was ecstatic, that was way past my expectations.
240 has me excited for tomorrow and Friday though. I'm more than dead keen to see if this XD period will behave as XD periods should, or dissapoint as this time last year, or something exciting might happen, as this is a momentous occasion.

Cue Johanna Lummley M&S ad voice over:

This isn't just any XD period,
-This is a B&T Momentous XD occasion.

Did I say excited? You've just got to be ( more on just why, later tonight) but first, everyone, don't you feel a song coming on with that close? Come on now, join in! You know the words - One two - A one, two, three -

I'm so excited
And I just can't hide it
I'm about to lose control and I think I like it
I'm so excited
And I just can't hide it
And I know
I know
I know
I know
I know

I'm so excited
And I just can't hide it
And I know
I know
I know
I know
I know
I'm so excited.

...Laters peeps

Final post then turning in.

RE: "...I was and will be back in if chartist is right with a retrace to £6 ish..."

- I'm loathe to rule out, or be held to a 'set' price, in this particular situation but think it might be unwise to set your heart on anchoring to a really super low price at all costs for this unusual reason - PFG's time in the profit-warning-hit isolation unit was up in mid June - yet PFG didn't get it's Steve McQueen motorbike over the barbed wire fence out of the POW camp until the very last day of July.

The research states that from the exit period it's quote "safer" to re-enter and buy as it doesn't carry on retacing from that date onwards, and becomes well as they state, "safer" ie., not as deep retracing as it had hithertto been. I'm taking that as mid June and not the end of July.

Going back to 600 or just proud of 600 doesn't appear to fit in with the reasearchers findings. It's supposed to be safer, no longer extremely volatile.

All researchers from all countries say the same thing - safer to buy from the exit; meaning to me - no more deep, deep, retracing.

600p is a double figure 10% fall from here, so I'm doubtful it'll retrace that far. This is the first year of testing out their findings for real, so I could be well wrong, as PFG did "break" the rules AND continued retracing after the exit period was up; so it could be what they call a "deviant."

However, I'm still musing over the final summing up which staes that all profit hit warning shares go on to outperform the general market over the second year - and that just doesn't fit in with the SP retracing deeply like the old days.

I really couldn't be held to how far I see this about to commence retracing - but I feel it won't be viscious, and that 600p would be, a vicious retrace. So no fundamentals, no charts, no indicators no oscillators, just my view based on a bunch of researchers findings, that's all.

Will say this though - to date PFG has behaved like deviant sample data, so I suppose it could yet still surprise and play outside the range of the researchers findings.

Just my personal opinion, no more than that, so as always - make your own mind up.

"... our first paid gig!! "

Hey, wow! Well done you, life doesn't get any better than that - being paid for creative work. Hope you get someone to film and Youtube it!

Just dusted off this old post of mine from July and brought it up for consideration, for tomorrow Wednesday, and onwards (possibly). The first of only a two para post, reads:

"As a sidebar to anyone who regrets nor buying/topping-up in the low 600's etc., I would offer that of all the months to best try and catch the SP of PFG on the hop - it would be August. Not consistently but for many years when sentiment has been lacklustre against PFG, August has been one of those months that offered some quite noticeable retraces. Not every year - but enough to be noticeable, when viewed over several years, IMO."

That's a highly personal opinion and nothing at all do do with profit-warning-hit shares research.

Only August 8th tomorrow, however, I think maybe, a strong chance the SP drops again tomorrow, and/or for the rest of the week at least IMO only, and if so, then decisions, decisions, on whether to buy - or delay in the hope of yet a lower SP - or just part-buy a tranche to get an 'average'?

Your guess is as good as mine.

I do personally feel "it's on the cards" for something of a retrace, imminently, before recommencing back to the uptrend - but that's just this poster's opinion only.

But if you are looking for a cheap entry or top-up, I'm personally going to give ther rest of this week some very close attention - in that expectation.

Of course, if instead it rockets, I can only say: Well I wasn't expecting that! :)

Think I've covered everyone.
If you haven't been insulted or I've missed you out, apologies - just shout out: Do me next :)

AUS @ 18:06pm

"... Exactly, I think everyone who uses charts does so for short term predictions"

Aus I've said long ago, in the fight for creating wealth via the stock market - I will pick up and use every and any weapon available to use to my advantage. I don't fall in love with any one discipline - I use what works for ME - not anyone else. People love to pigeon hole each other, you're either a chartist or a fundamentalist, think like that and you've already fallen at the first hurdle; I am unreliable to be called upon to support either camp of investment; I go with what works for me - not what works for those posters below. I will not shoe-horn into what others feel is the only way to invest; they will hear of no other methods, but only their own. THEY post of what works for them!

Yes, I use designed-for day traders TA tools, every day - but don't day trade.
I use charts - yes, for not only short term, but medium term and long term trends too.

Who sets the rule for what I can and can not do, to achieve increasing wealth? Once you fall into some one else's ways without thought - you're finished. That's the end of innovation and improvement. It worked fine for them, but will it work for you? I suggest not, as you never hear of say, successful day traders for instance. Is there a pensioner anywhere in the world that when asked what they did for a living, pulls themselves up into their walking frame and replies "I spent the majority of my life as a successful day trader"?

I know of one only - he's in a book I've yet to finish reading - he's a middle aged/retired former Asian shop keeper living down south - a former shop keeper but now a multi millionaire living in relatively unknown seclusion - that's the only ONE I know of. Which to me means the tools they use need to be improved for day trading - but I've nicked them for my own use. Feck day trading, give 'em space and they work just fine on longer time scales; or rather I find they do in he way I set them up. Do I recommend TA / Chartism/ Fundamentals? - Hell no! Find what works for you, not what works for me.

For instance you're supposed to keep sma and exponential moving averages separate - that's the "law". They're totally incompatible when used together in the same chart - that's the law of Chartism culture - except for those like myself who by sheer accident discovered a wrinkle to make them work together in a mixed environment and achieve better results than by other means!

No book or article or anyone I've ever met, mixes the two together; it's supposed to 'not work'. But I do. I've experimented until I'm blue in the face - and narrowed it down until I get great results; for me - and just won't be parted from them, nor will I reveal them - but maybe I will when one day, I achieve 7 figures in net worth, because by then, who cares? :)

Philpot @ 17:50pm

" I will say parts of charting tend to become self prophesising..... I.e. when technicals get broken the algos can get triggered and movements induced."

Very astute Philpot, plenty of evidence to suggest that occurs more often than TA Chartists care to admit.

------------------------
And: ".. or even a month to me is ridiculous, business fundamentals and results will determine that"

Couldn't disagree more if I tried. Plenty of evidence to show that neither chartisim nor fundamentals hit the spot ALL the time. Just using fundamentals alone will not "automatically" increase your wealth. If it did, all you need do is choose all the buy stocks recommended in Investors Chronicle - and see what your left with at the year end! We'd all be rich if all you needed was to take advice from a talented fundamentals analyst because they're always right, yes?

Take last Friday's IC for instance, the analyst compares Vodafone to BT in their forthcoming battle for 5G and concludes Vodafone the better bet and STATES - BUY VODAFONE - SELL BT - Go check your local supermarket and read for free - it's screaming near the front of the magazine at the bottom of the fundamentals conclusion - SELL BT

- Well, are you gonna? Sell BT? He's just told you too. He's a pure fundamentals only analyst - how can he be wrong?

When it comes to hot stocks - fundamentals break down and cease to function, with PE ratios up in the stratosphere defying all fundamental principals, metrics and founding logic - fundamental logic dictates that the price should fall - yet it doesn't.

To try and counter that I use both disciplines, simultaneously.

Will answer each of you separately. First up is -

Sh itface @ 17:08pm

Hi Sh, itface,
Dear of dear, what's with all the outbreak of sheer envy by YOU again?!?
I thought my post had enough self deprecation in it, what with me visiting parallel universes etc for you not to take it too seriously. After all - it's yet to show that it's nothing more than gloriously wishful thinking.
But if, in the style of your mean-spirited post, you insist on your serious face tripping you up, type of response, then just for you, here goes -

" until the share price moves goes a different way and then it’s, “oh yes, but of course the analysis is now ....”

WTFeck are you on? WTF did I say to upset you? That's out and out fake posting by you! Drink plenty of water in this humid weather; it'll ease your constipation. I mean just what is the point of your post, just what?

Apologies Sh itface, just put me glasses on, and I see it's not that - but sairfecked.
Sorry yet another typo.

Try again: Sourfecked.

Oh I give up - Is it German? You a Kraut then? You sound sour enough. Neah, think I'll stick to Sh itface - it suits your posting character
----------------------
And:
" ....Why wasn’t the 200 day average thing mentioned before??"

What a right lazy beggar you are sh itface, can't be bothered to research further than the last post of the day, can you. Check my posts back and you'll discover it HAS been mentioned before. However, normally, I don't pay it much attention - unless a share price is crossing it.

------------------
And:
"... Of course, you may be fabulously wealthy based on your stock market predictive prowess and ..."

Fabulously? If that were so, then this would be on a website of mine and you'd be paying me a subscription to learn "How I did it".

Just about everyone on this BT forum is "wealthy" when there are food banks in Britain and so forth. The average pension pot for the average citizen is reported as woefully inadequate, so yes - all of us, including YOU are wealthy by comparison.

For myself I'm only running a humble six figure SIPP portfolio, and a couple of five figure ISA's. I don't expect to achieve a seven figure portfolio anytime soon - but I do intend achieving a seven figure portfolio total - come hell or high-water - within a decade - that's do-able at reasonable yearly, quiet little gains, so no, not fabulously wealthy - but just like you - wealthy by comparison to the average Joe who simply can't afford a single penny towards investment or savings.

That boy doesn't know if he's coming or going.

Stop deflecting - and give an approximate date for your 2100p prediction. I'm all ears :)

Doesn't have to be exact - just the year will do.

P'S. It's no shame to admit you have no idea when - if you had that sort of courage you'd at least go up in my estimation - but if you want to persist in a Tourette's-like schoolboy version of uncontrolled shout-outs and do a runner/deflect when held to account, then by all means carry on shouting-out with a bag full of prices in the hope you get lucky and that one eventually sticks.

So once again, 2100p - when, what year?

Today marks a momentous occasion in BT's 2.75 year SP decline! A record of sorts as it's the first time ever achieved since the Italian fiasco back in Jan 2017 and apart from a similar successful breech a few single days before that unexpected disaster, it would have been the first time ever in that 2.75 years! It has since taken another 1.75 years, but in other words, today marks the 'official' beginning of the end of continued fears of how low will BT go? The giant retrace is at the beginning of the end!

The SP closed tonight at 238.5p

The 200 day sma, always, always, during that time "just out of reach" was breeched by tonight's close as it lies beneath the SP at 237.95p

Only bettered by barely half a pence, yes - but you can be sure algo's are on to it in those big houses of the funds
- (would be interested in what Pacey's ADR's close at in New York tonight at 9pm our time - those banks will know the 200 day ma was breeched here in the UK - they won't be letting their customers have the stock cheap that's for sure)

The 200 day ma is more observed by the big ii's than PI's, despite what they write in articles. I don't expect it to hold on first contact but once it regains it and is seen to hold and build on it, the algo's will go "pop" in the big investment houses!

Go round the message boards tonight and ask how many own a share that sits higher than their 200 day moving average. Pretty sure the answer will come back: none - to perhaps just one! It's that hard to do!

Salivate and experience the moment. It's a victory. But will it be the last before continued retracement?

Winston Churchill once said: "Before Alamein we never had a victory. After Alanmein we never had a defeat".

Well it's a bit like that. The SP might and most definitely will, meander when it chooses to, but it's over that continually deep retracing. It has always been continually down before breeching the 200 day ma, after it - I suspect it'll be a case of being no stranger to flirting up and over with the 200day sma. And perhaps looking down on it for extended periods of time.

Later historians said of Alamein, that 'For many, it was the moment they believed the war need not be lost'.

And I think that may prove to be the case here, in that for many investors it will be looked back on as the day they believed the SP need not head back to 200p.

Now put your socks back on.

Of course the giant Death Star, long-term down-trend, is of a shape that is unmoved and laughs tonight off. But unbeknownst to the bears inside that death star it is fatally holed beneath the waterline. It's a giant crack that was heard and seen in every investment fund around the world.

Those who wanted in cheaper, will need to get their act together in the coming weeks and grab whatever titbits are thrown their way - they ain't getting in at 200 nor sub 200 - of that I'm more than sure.