Member Info for Velo

Why I think a bid for BT very early next year is highly likely - rather than highly unlikely.

(This will never fit in one post so expect it over two postings; here goes :)

1) When DT replied to questions earlier this year about their huge billions in loss in BT's share price - losing over 50% in value, they were unfazed by the apparent loss in their massive stockholding in BT's shares (14% ownership of BT) and were totally unconcerned as they were "happy and pleased" and had "budgeted for it", and further had handed their shares over to a hedge fund for "safe keeping". Why "happy" at a 50% loss of billions of pounds worth of loss?

So:
A) they got a hedge fund to make up part of their loss for them whilst
B) still remaining the largest shareholder in BT, as per the restrictions of the covenants.

They complained to Ofcom about their enforced competition rulings over BT. (Having faced similar complaints against themselves in Germany. Why? It's BT's management job - not a 'restricted' shareholder's place to complain to Ofcom about Ofcom decisions.

2) They have expanded quite successfully into the USA - America is outside the EU - so concerns about BT after Brexit are unfounded IMO.

3) At the time of the 14% ownership of BT in shares deal, BT said most vehemently that there was no planned takeover intention by DT and that DT would exert no influence over BT but would instead be a passive investor. Later DT also just as vehemently denied any intention of exerting any influence over BT but would seek collaborative ventures mutually beneficial to both companies. BT conformed they were indeed most happy top encourage collaborative ventures with DT - but that DT would have absolutely no influence whatsoever over BT and quashed insider rumours of demands by DT for a place BT's board to exert their own influence over BT. Both agreed that was
utterly and completely out of the question and scoffed at the very idea.

4) Fact: Today's BOD at BT includes a DT non-executive director on the BOD.

Not just any old DT director - but the CEO of DT himself - Tim Höttges. He knows every single financial fact inside BT that even ordinary shareholders are not privy to. Why has the CEO installed himself on to BT's BOD with all his duties elsewhere? Why not an underling? Why the No:1 DT exec himself? Why?

To this day, both companies have never retracted the assertion that DT would ever exert any influence over BT's decision making. BT's board remain in 100% in undiluted agreement to future joint ventures with DT.

5) Speculation is rife amongst analysts that the 13,000 redundancies goes way beyond any financial requirements for the future of BT. They concluded such is the extreme depth of the announced redundancies which shocked analysts with its extremism that there were ulterior motives for the staff culling which went over and above what was required.

6) The media/analysts as a group were dumbfounded

What? You can't mention the word "bit-cheng" in LSE posts?

And we have a winner, congrats to Aus. DT to launch a takeover for BT next spring! - ???

DT have world domination ambitions for their sector. They *****ed and *****ed when their own Monopolies commission prevented them from expanding further in Germany, with the authorities letting Liberty take a big stake in DT's own back yard. How they complained! But that was nothing to the loud ******** and complaints they lodged when Liberty sold there stake for £17 billion to Vodafone!

DT in their internal logoc known only to themselves, launched a bitter complaint that Vodafone was now in breech of the monopolies commision version in Germany , but no one listened. So they turned to the USA. And there they've met with considerable success and are a major player over there. The UK next!

Psst...(World domination) Whatever you do, don't mention the war, I,mentioned it once but I think I got away with it.

(Incidentally the biggest lodger of complaints against Ofcom's enforced rulings over BT - was not BT itself - but non other that DT !

Waddya mean, you've never ever seen Fawlty Towers?

Will post some (brief) verifiable evidence to support my proposition shortly.

Bugger! Always happens to my lengthy posts. They're not lengthy in my mind but are when I turn them into print form!

The bit that fell off the end to close -

.......Ascoyne, no that's not it, but you bring up the only thing that could prove my next post to be a none-starter - Brexit - but I have evidence to show it won't affect the 'prisoner' release :)

-------------------------
CLUE No 3: Why doesn't it matter not a jot if as some have suggested the SP goes sub 200p and on to 150p. Why in that event will holders of BT stock still do alright?

Come on now - 3 clues as to why early next year is uber important to BT.
(another clue in that very sentence - surely you've worked it out now? :) :) :)

Busy this weekend so taking the opportunity to answer the riddle or I'll never do it, but first -

CLUE No:1
Who gets released from covenants-and-contracts-jail next February and is free to wander unmolested and damn well do as they damn well please without answering to any authority whatsoever?

----------------------------

Oooh good one Pacey, Although pretty sure Du Plessis said he hoped to tie things up by October of this year regarding a new CEO. But no, that's not what I'm alluding to for next spring.

Aus - same, but you do bring up a good point regarding the investor's secret get-out-of-jail-free-card regarding pension deficit. Apart from one single analyst virtually every other single analysis of BT in the media (particularly of late the IC mag) has missed that the pension deficit crisis has been addressed in full! And in theory it has been "solved".

It's the BT investor's edge in the stock market over all others reporting in the media about BT's pension deficit - they're all talking of the next 2 years puny efforts to solve the crisis and stop there. Big mistake.

I've posted on this before but GP is held in such low regard they're not listening or reading to what he has already set in motion - a nine £billion pound rescue package to solve the pension crisis ONCE AND FOR ALL!

FROM 2020 AND FOR THE FOLLOWING DECADE, £900 million per year will be pumped into the pension pot EVEREY YEAR to alleviate the deficit - that's £9B over 10 years! £9BILLION!!! Crisis over! :)

If the rest of the media choose to ignore that, then it'll be 2020 before they wake up to it. And as a BT investor - that's your "edge".
Let all and sundry worry to death over the pension deficit, but as long as the incoming CEO doesn't fiddle with the plan and he/she might - the pension crisis - in theory - is over!

Just remember that when a pushed to the limit busy journo frightens the life out of you with BT having the worst pension deficit of any company in the entire world - IT'S BEING DEALT WITH! The subject is history - in theory/and yet to be put into practice - that commences in 2020!

Bare in mind like medication there are side effects - that's £9Billion unavailable for modernisation, unavailable for investment, unavailable for small acquisitions, unavailable for the dividend.

GP, to his credit, has done the right thing - what a shame he left it to the 11th hour - too late to save his career, now someone else will get all the credit for his last minute, wrong-man-with-the-right-plan offering.

CLUE No2: After being released from jail what did the offender swear an oath to do, as soon as possible after that release?
---------------------------

Ascoyne, no that's not it, but you bring up the only thing that could prove the undoing of my next post to be a non-starter - Brexit - but I have evidence to show it won't affect the 'prisoner' release :)

-------------------------
CLUE No 3: Out of bandwidth I think - so a final para to f

Hi Pacey - Did last post some weeks back, that I would refrain from posting at least until after XD period terminates which is after this weekend, next Monday, ie., payday on Sept 3rd

- but you called my name in the subject header, and just like a vampire who stands at the doorway and can not enter until the innocent occupant invites the vampire in, I now step over the threshold to reply and post - as you called my name by invite :)

(cue vampire music or failing that, Phantom of the Opera nusical, as I swish my black swirling cape to oneside and enter the forum)

- To answer - charts looking decidely under the weather, in fact a lot under the weather, very bearish - and should be immediately discounted as invalid - this is still in XD period, (until next Monday) so raw shorter-term charts of any stock in the XD period are totally meaningless and invalid; as are some comments I have been reading with a somewhat raised eyebrow amusement demeanour (now I'm channelling Roger Moore :) of those lamenting the CURRENT poor performance of the SP

- whilst the SP is still forcibly "adjusted" during the XD period ! ! !

After Monday is fair comment if the SP dissappoints onwards. Until then I have no comment on the SP, as the MM's will only release the SP from XD period purgatory after that date point.

--------------
Aus - I have a ton of stuff on VOD metrics, both 'v good' and 'seriously bad' but don't want to post it on the VOD forum, and haven't even written it up, but might yet put it on a old free private posting site I'm signed up to, but hardly ever use (so links in posts needed to access it) as in that way it avoids the overly emotional trolls/rampers on VOD forum.

Some of the complexity of the accountancy stuff I have is of the 'will make your eyes bleed' variety, and I'm barely able to rope my way through it, but can just about make some sense of it - despite it being based on finance professor stuff which explains why I find it so complicated to understand and way above my pay grade and securitry clearance level, LOL!

-----------
P.S. Back to BT and an open question
- What do you think will be the NUMBER ONE topic and no other, involving BT, that will trump all other BT issures, in every media investment site and on this board, from next late-Jan and February onwards?
(Have already stored a short piece on that subject, so will answer my own question eventually at some point, but for now I must return to the dark underground crypt, lest the bright daylight burns me up to a cinder :)

PS.

When I said: " but every single post I've seen is far too short term in their thinking."

- That's not quite accurate. There was one poster, and only one, that was bang on the money. No names, no pack drill, but it was the short single sentence post that said:

"This is classic recovery play still got a long way to go I see ....."

At the time of the issue of the profit warning I didn't comment on a post that bluntly declared this would be "easy money". That was patently absurd. I should have commented, as one poster agreed with the easy money call and added for authority that "they had experience of this share"

It was ill-informed bluster - so I ignored it.

Bul, it looks like a dose of reality has finally sunk into that poster who proudly posted back at the time of the profit warning of this share: "Easy money" with today's about-face of:

" ..although I agree the price has been more subdued than I expected..."

So much for dubious posts of "easy money" eh? LOL! Easy money my Rrrrsss!!!

And as for the precceding sentence of:"This will creep back to over £1.50" - well not in your short termism time frame sunshine - defo not ths year.

You've more chance of winning the jackpot lottery than seeing £1.50 this year. Not gonna happen - this year.

This current bullish trend is at the very high edges of expectations, and extremely interesting, so I'm firmly of the opinion it won't hang on to this current little bull run. It has time to serve first, before it's clear to run free. Short term investors will be sorely dissapointed.

Expand your time horizons and you might be on to soimething but every single post I've seen is far too short term in their thinking. No £1.50 this year. No recovery this year.

Unless PHTM is a true 'deviant' of otherwise typical profit warning-hit shares.

If it is, then the most surpised poster of all - will be me.

When you smooth out all the rights issues and dividends of the SP from the summer of 2012 to present, the charts show Phoenix has been more or less one of a bottom left to top right trajectory for the past 6 years.

And here it is delivering a terrific Trading Update more suited to a 'hot stock' with mention of:
"Phoenix Group delivers strong results and will exceed upper end of two year cash generation target."

The upper end!!! :) :) :)

Wouldn't like to be offer an opinion on the bottom as it's sheer speculation. This area could be it - for all anyone knows.

In these kinds of situations there's often a belated dead-cat bounce that is short lived, but it appears it's either late arriving and therefore overdue right here now, or it will be a non-show.

If a noticeable dead cat bounce does evolve from here. - they never last, so prepare for disappointment - until that is IMO, December or into January 2019 where I fully expect "safer" conditions to prevail. No forecasts except for a safer progress from early next year. That's my strategy - time to commence healing; I believe it will - and that is not this calendar year - but next.

Thank you Aus, kind of you to say so.

"...consumers are keeping their old handsets and moving to sim only deals..."

- Well you've got me described in one, right there!

5G?
Very interested in the business battle to come, if as reported, BT and VOD are limbering up to step in the ring with each other for a big punch-up, slugging it out for dominance in 5G - but beyond that, I'm open to all views on 5G as I'm insufficiently knowledgeable to cast any opinion on 5G.

In 5G, I am an observer, not a commenter.

Thanks Pacey - Also, I think you've brought to everyone's attention a valuable point as highlighted by a couple of other posters - Yes investors should read what latest developments some analysts can dig up - but IGNORE their buy/sell recommendations - researchers reviews show analysts perform miserably in their own portfolios, most failing to beat the market index - as Buffet says - most expert stock-pickers can't do that, so buy an Index tracker fund instead.

For instance was trying to dig up that piece from IC on the looming battle between BT v VOD on who will be the top dog to control 5G in the UK, but it's blanked out and subscription now needed - The reason I was hunting for that 5G piece was that the analyst genuinely informed me of something I had no understanding of - that BT and VOD are due to lock horns over 5G. It was worthwhile reading that
- but the analyst then ruins it all, by getting ahead of himself and declaring he knows the future - that VOD will win therefore right now he says BUY VOD and SELL BT - now!

He ended the piece that dramatically in one short dramatic sentence - (Buy one - sell the other) then ends the piece.

One researcher opines PI's should invest the opposite to what analysts say; the reason put forward is that they're drowning in info, more than the average PI can ever obtain, but their stock picking improvement barely moves beyond 2% betterment for that info. A case of analysis paralysis.

So yes, analysts links for info, that genuinely informs - but not to read their opinions of which shares to stock pick.
The first they're ace at - the latter they're not.

Spot on Ghostofwhitelane - (Sacking of Sir Gav) I believe it represents a tipping point by Du Plessis in that he's reached his lifetime level of incompetence ( The Peter Principle that each of us gets promoted until we each reach our own level of incompetence). Asking GP to stay on after publicly sacking him - shows weakness. A different can of worms to a retiring CEO leaving voluntarily, then staying on until a replacement is found. I remain disgruntled over that decision. You'd put a terminally sick pet down wouldn't you, to end it's suffering?

To close, I have little more interest in the SP until the next biggie occasion - Coming out of XD on Sept 3rd. The SP will do what all shares do in their respective XD periods - fluctuate. Not going to comment needlessly, or rather will try not to :) :) :) on further fluctuations until then.

What the SP will do in the immediate days/weeks AFTER Sept 3rd (payment day) is more than important for BT and will help form a definitive opinion of the new landscape - new CEO present or not.

Just this minute found this when Googling other stuff -

"It wasreported this week that Informa CEO Stephen Carter has been approached by BT as part of its search to replace CEO Gavin Patterson.

Sky News got the scoop, reporting Carter ‎’has been sounded out in the last few weeks about the post.’ Carter hasn’t publicly commented on the matter but apparently one of his unnamed friends has, confirming the approach but stressing he is not a candidate for the BT CEO gig, nor is he any part of the recruitment process.

It seems more likely that a headhunter has been ringing around senior telecoms execs to gauge their interest in running BT and Carter was on their list. Somehow this process came to the attention of Sky News and here we are. Intriguingly Carter’s mystery mate, who we have no reason to believe doesn’t accurately represent his position, indicated to Sky that Carter could yet be persuaded to shift his current position on the vacancy.

Carter was always likely to be on any headhunter’s shortlist, as Telecoms.com and Light Reading (both of which are owned by Informa) have speculated previously. He has a strong telecoms background including NTL and Alcatel Lucent, as being the founding CEO of UK telecoms regulator Ofcom. But thanks to a recent M&A spending spree, including the £3.9 billion acquisition of UBM, there seems to be plenty to hold Carter’s attention at Informa right now.

The smart money is on EE boss Marc Allera to move up to the BT CEO role. The acquisition of EE at the start of 2016 has served to illustrate how behind the times the core BT business is. Allera has shown he gets the modern consumer telecoms game and is already part of the mix so he would seem to be the safe choice. Besides, apparent shopaholic Carter is unlikely to be interested in a company that has already blown its M&A budget for the next few years.

Hey Pacey - Had a (rapid) reply from the writer of that article you linked to - He openly admits he fouled up there and is in the process of ammending that error, so the article should be more accurate.(Just checked - it's already done; I also brought up the 10.55p dividend and it gets mentioned in the second para).

I also pointed out to him in the same email, that it never closed at 220p as said in the article but intradayed there only to close at 221p.

He has also said he's amending the fall to show it to 221p and not 220p as he had erronously written of.

Thank you for the compliments F/dronk & Score/steps.

Incidentally I now notice that when I posted of another 'celebrity' UK analyst comparing the VIX to a decline in the FTSE and musing over whether a bear market occured during that drop and therefore we must now be in a new bull market ie.,

(April 2015 FTSE was at 7,100 and retraced to 5,537 by Feb 2016 a 22% decline thus exceeding the industry standard of calling a sustained market fall of 20% - a bear market)

- that in actual fact he didn't compare the VIX - to the fall - He stayed on the FTSE only. So double-checked today and the VIX index conveniently suports his hypothisis, So all good. Phew.

The VIX index spiked up to 30 in the run up to early 2015 and by that summer peaked at a very high VIX 52 approx, (FTSE down to 5537) after which the VIX began slowly dropping to 30, still high bt improving - and from there retracing to under VIX 10 by the end of 2017

- and the FTSE doing likewise rising from that low of 5,537 back up to 7000 area approx as the VIX came off it's damaging highs. So even though he didn't use the VIX Index - only the FTSE performance it's still addional ammo to his assertions (perhaps I should email him too :)

If interested here's a link to what he said in hs own words:

https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2018/03/ftse-100-bull-market.html/

Hee hee, no he's not thick Pacey - he's just dropped a clanger of schoolboy proportions LOL, that's all. It happens. (I've just emailed him to highlight his ommision of the share gong XD). Pretty sure if he replies he'll be feeling red-faced in embarrasment.

Anyway that article was published yesterday by Robert Stephens. The article TL has linked to, came out a few hours ago, today - and is by the very same person - Robert Stephens!

The first line of that has a howler of a simple typo in it - it reads:

"In the last six months the BT Group plc (LON:BT.A) (BT.A.L) share price has declined by 3p so that it now trades at around 225p"

PS. More than 'a bit like Motley Fool' TL - Robert Stephens is a regular and key contributor to Motley Fool.

(Several M/Fool writers publish on Investomania regularily).

Part 2 to conclude: Bag of nuts all gone, yet? :)

VIX at 13's is getting back to acceptable for positive investor sentiment, still a little elevated though, so shouldn't be any heartless drops in share prices tomorrow.

It's been said that the VIX index is the best indicator of approaching stock market collapse and VIX @ 20 was touted in a recent influential blog I read the other day - so influential, I can't for the life of me recall where I read that or who wrote it - but it's wrong. At the height of the 2007/2009 crash the VIX soared to 90 ! It then decreased steadily ever since apart from a curious resurgence that lasted about/around the duration of 2015/2016.

I read another curious (UK based) piece about the VIX the other day that promulgated that if you're reading all the doom and gloom blogs about world collapse - you missed it - the FTSE "crashed" over 20% in that time I mentioned above as the VIX soared to 50+ (20% retrace being the generally accepted minimum for a market crash, higher for a depression).

So might it be, the piece goes on, that we've been in a brand new bull market, that started this past 1 or 2 years ago?

Don't down the last of your bag of nuts just yet; you've got this to trawl through first :)

(1st of 2 pages by the look of it)

Well then - the VIX index - what about it? If you felt you had to sell any shares yesterday, because you just couldn't stand to see any more decline in whatever share you sold - you may not have being doing so, as voluntarily as you might first think. The VIX index is like a chart of any share except it works in reverse. When a share goes up that's good. When the VIX index goes up - that's bad - it means the higher it goes, the more panicky the world's investors are becoming and you will witness falling share prices left right and centre. And it's no time to be selling - but buying up bargains. (When the VIX is high - buy; When the VIX is low; go slow)

As it's a worldwide index of sentiment - not fundamentals - not technicals - but pure sentiment ie., investor emotion. And that news release of a failed new CEO approach for BT was released to the media in prime time of the VIX climbing alarmingly. There could only be one response - and you witnessed it on Wednesday. BT went down.

The VIX Index was at record lows (since the 2009 crash) and during the better part of 2017 was at sub VIX 10 - just unheard of, showing that investor confidence was too high, over confdent, driving prices higher (because the VIX was low).

Now look what's happened in 2018.

First it flew off the handle - up - during the early part of this year when all shares were suffering generally, but it only lasted a short time - the VIX had risen from the lows mentioned up to 40/50's during that "correction" before crashing down after that bad month or two. It was a time to buy bargains, share prices were falling, prices stabilised and down came the VIX to 12's or so.

Guess what it was at during this early to mid August period? low 10's/11's = investor confidence was high. And BT rose satisfyingly all through early August up to 240p, did it not? Can you guess what's happened to the VIX this week?

It rose up to 14's and intradayed to 16's! This week! So when the VIX rises, prices fall, and what did BT do in the peak of that VIX rise this week? - it fell! (VOD fell too for those of you bemoaning VOD's SP). Currently right now, it's gently falling to 13's. And what did BT do today as the VIX fell back down? Yes - it rose.

So, I put it to you; that if you sold from fear this week, or just sheer agony of being unable to put up with further losses, it may not have been your own free will but - herd emotion.

VIX at 13's is getting back to acceptable for positive investor sentiment, still a little elevated though, so shouldn't be any heartless drops in share prices tomorrow.

(Part 2 to follow)

LOL! - That made me laugh fizzydrink. I'd better include a story or two then, otherwise this post will be over and you'll still have a bagful of nuts left, to get through. First BT, then (cue dramatic sound effects music) - the VIX index!

Finishing with adding on to that on forecasting a stock market crash (which is linked to - (cue music again)
- the VIX index!!! - den, den, deeeaan!

BT.
First off, on first glance this morning I was struck by how identical the SP intraday action was to Wednesday's - before the failed CEO approach started leaking out in the afternoon. It was a STRONG bottom left up, diagonally all the way up to the top - as was Wednesday's.

And just like Wednesday's, it met with worthy bear attacks in the afternoon. Only today's bears were weaker. So, is the sum total of this CEO leak damage just a one day wonder? Nothing more than a 24 hour shake-down? I'm thinking it's now a return to normal XD conditions, a return to the Queensbury rules of XD period of controlled, restriction until September 3rd payment day - and then out on parole the SP goes!

Wednesday's bears just could not close below 221p - and that was significant and more or less showed they'd blown it (both days were not quite average volume) and by tonight's close, just proud of 225p, has more or less sealed the bears fate. This take-down appears to have petered out. From here to Sept 3rd should be (IMO) within the bounds of normal expectations of what any share does during XD period, and no cause for concern. Tomorrow if you think the SP will continue rising then that success is just a mere 2p away at 227p close or better, to continue the uptrend.

If the bears mount a counter offensive tomorrow, then it's a wee bit easier for them as closing below 222p would (IMO) bring the game of CEO-panic news, downtrend/retrace back to life; but I don't think they have it in them. They've shot their bolt!

So, normal vacillations of the SP - this failed new CEO approach was a red herring. Every single company at some point will change the top job, and often they don't get their first choice - just like in the films where it's revealed the lead actor in an iconic film was not the producers first choice. It happens. It's not bankruptcy and failure time; it's carry on regardless time! And that's what the SP will do tomorrow as sensibilities return. Wibble wobble indeed! It was nothing.

More shares than usual had a poor showing on Wednesday, and that also aided the bad news-day against BT by sheer coincidence (FTSE was down a LOT, a tremendous amount and had been retracing without let up for 5 days solid on the trot!

- What gives?

So, I put my deerstalker hat on, and checked the VIX index out as hadn't looked in awhile (remember that, the VIX , from the last kerfuffle back near the start of the year?) and I was taken aback by it - so will post on that separately, next, as it made it too damned easy to take BT down badly, on Wednesday.

Well, got away with that by the skin of the teeth - 221p close! So, to be true to my word, no complaints from me then.

Enormously strong bull run into the close, suggests the SP may open up strongly first thing tomorrow; but admit the bears/sellers are out in abundance and that strong opening I'm expecting tomorrow (Thursday) will come under attack.

Summary:
Tonight's close is easily well within the boundaries of acceptability for a normal XD period when compared (just for some perspective) to the average for the past full 2 years divis of the same period. In fact it could fall several pence more and would still only be equalling the deeper of the past two full years XD periods, not exceed it.

In other words - there is nothing yet out of the ordinary in this XD period that suggests a re-appearance of the long term down trend is making its presence felt.

------------------
Blether:
Yes, it was looking on course to be one of the better XD periods in recent memory - until someone went out of their way to blab to SKY about the failed CEO approach. And without proof here's a clue as to who I hold responsible for that leak as revealed in the Sky report:

- "... according to people close to the company..."

What else did the "people close to the company" tell Sky? And why would they make contact with Sky in the first place unless it was to gloat and cause revenge mischief? I've said all along keeping that walking-dead, publicly fired and humiliated CEO in place after firing him is asking for trouble - and here it is!

Whatever, so although I expect a strong opening tomorrow, won't be at all surprised if the bears win the day by close. If they don't, then safety lies on the other side of 225p.

Bears have a tougher job tomorrow - if they crave supremacy then they're going to have to crack open (and close below) 218p - all IMO only. No below 218p? - then no more downtrend!

With that expected strong opening tomorrow, I remain bullish. This XD period is still classified as normal as of tonight. Tons of value in the balance sheet - tons! It's not screaming 'sell me'.
There's a 10 year plan of £9b to be poured into the pension deficit commencing 2020 to put right once and for ever, that atrocious pension deficit. BT is a smashing cash flow generator, all metrics (apart from a bit of debt and worse the pension deficit) do though scream "I'm very CHEAP!" Ask and I'll back it up with an update, but I'd rather you looked yourself.

Which would you rather own heading into uncertain times after Brexit next year - a share that's overvalued or a share that all analysts agree is undervalued ?

Evidential Fact: In a stockmarket crash, highly (over)valued 'hot' shares, fall far, far, deeper than undervalued ones - even though none have done anything "wrong").