Member Info for Velo

Cont..... (Tsk! Me and my long posts).


...but if this year and next do come in with those nice increasing net profits, despite lacklustre revenue in the same tirmescale, might some analysts start to claim to seeing 'something'? And thus kickstart a more positive sentiment?

Well the SP has dissapointed investors for approx 5 years now, (double the downtrend time that BT has suffered) has it not? With plenty of false positives along the way to fool/entrap everyone.

It's been just dire, as long term holders no doubt know only too well.

So, it would be a brave man that says that's all about to change.

I agree with your assesment that circa 140p could/ nay - WILL put up quite a spirited defence on any further retrace - but you could have said that on countless occasions over the past 5 years about the SP, only to have the rug cruelly pulled from underneath your feet.

Not as deep value here in the balance sheet as I feel there is in BT, but at least the P/E ratio is below the sector average - so the market has had its pound of flesh, and it's defo in no way, shape or form, overvalued, despite the fwd 8%+ dividend, being barely covered. (With coverage set to improve for both 2018 and next year) So it's pulling away from the danger-zone cliff edge, of potentially being cut.

It almost had all 3 of my fav balance sheet metrics - a low P/E = Tick.
A better than sector average comparison of, Price to Free Cashflow = Tick.
But fell on the Price to Book Value as being 'worse' than the sector average - but only by a small margin - and besides it's damned hard to get those 3 metrics all in the bag.

So, 2 out of 3 isn't at all bad. The rest of the balance sheet metrics are acceptable and suggestive of good value - should be - it's been kicked down for nigh on 5 years. Any form of any description of 'over valuation' has long been drained out of CNA.

But that's the point - when something starts to look cheap and looks to have some value - there's always a reason it's been abandoned by the market. The trick is in deciphering when that value builds to super-cheap and positive sentiment kicks in, realises it's gone too far in one direction. I think there's been enough studies to show that Efficient Market Hypothisis theory never exsisted. Warren Buffett is on record as saying 'If the market was efficient I would have long ago been a bum on the street with a tin can'.

So the big question is: Who can say when this big retrace has been overdone? With Labour showing no sign of withdrawing it's pledge to renationlise all utilty energy stocks the market is in fright mode when rating these, in case Labour should get in and carry out there pledge on the energy stocks..

Revenue is uninspiring, lacklustre for this year and next - but forecast net profit shows some lovely increasing impovement. If it happens as budgeted by both forecasts and analysts, I wonder if that might affect sentiment as the last time net profit increased for 2 years on the trot was - well, I'm looking as far back as 2012 and it was just decrease after decrease with a couple of years in total loss, but if this year and next do come in with those nice increasing net profits, despite lacklustre revenue in the same tirmescale, analysts might cl

XD day tomorrow. Surprised the SP closed tonight @ only 706p after it drifting up to 717 /718p the other week. So when it fell back from those temporary highs I still thought that it might revisit that area by tonight's close, as tonight was the final chance to bag a big divi.

Whatever, that means I now expect it might retrace (temporarily) down to eventually, circa low 680's (or more) starting from tomorrow on, until payday on October 1st.

Hi Pokerchump, no not in CNA. Just preliminary nosing around, no agenda.

Well I'm somewhat younger and thanks to your link, got my car insurance down to £189 today. I'm speechless! (So thanks again :)

Thanglan, I have to say I'm seriously shocked by that admission of you being down by so much.

So now I'm
a) Speechless,
and
b) Shocked.

Best wishes for an improvement here.

Sidebar:

thanglan - Many, many, many thanks, for that link!

Of course everyone well-knows about Martin Lewis's site, but your link gave me the curiosity to move myself and check out my car insurance which is due later this very month - and guess what? Only got this year's premium down by nearly almost half! Can't believe it!

And talking to friends I thought I was already on a "reasonable" price.

That price comparative site for me - every year now.

Ehee! Read posts for free, on a free forum like LSE, AND make huge savings too whilst reading posts. Does it get any better :) :) :)

Fusion98 - Yes, please post of reasons, evidence that you discover, of why DT may NOT launch a bid for BT next year, as my assertion that they might - is based on gossip, rumours, and unsubstantiated 'unnamed spokespersons' galore and mostly circumstantial evidence, so anything to the contrary is most welcome and helps form a 'bigger picture', does it not?

Having said that, a point of order on the issue you raise on the legality of foreign investment in critical infrastructure areas of the UK.

You claim that:
"For one the UK Government changed the rules less than 6 months ago about foreign investments taking over UK based firms and as telephones are classed (by most) as essential to modern life, it will fall under these new rules. "

- I think you're maybe jumping the gun there a bit early.
As far as I recollect - the rules have not yet changed, but as in the helpful link you provided it is only up for debate and is still only in the "proposal stage" and nowhere near yet a regulatory mandate. Nothing in law has changed.

I can see why too. Here we have a govt with a PM dancing in Africa, touting for foreign business to invest in, whilst others scoff that it won't even come near to filling the trade gap that coming out the EU 'might' create.

The African dance is in line with the current mantra of the govt that we will be free to trade openly with the rest of the world. Politically I'd imagine they'd be scared sh- -it- less to ban a foreign company from attaining investment interest in BT after promising we can make up any shortfall by letting-in the rest of the world in to trade with us.

Which govt politician will volunteer for interviews to be the first to tell the electorate we have just shut the door on foreign investment in the UK in this case ie., BT?

In that link it also berates the Chinese investment in the UK's nuclear power industry. Contracts are still in force. It's still 100% on to be Chinese owned. After coming out of the EU, again who's going to stand up and proudly say - "And we're banning China too from investing in the UK?"

As a British citizen I personally support the point you raise - but I think we may both be victims of political engineering when push comes to shove. It's 100% on by the govt that we trade freely with the rest of the world - hence the PM robot-dancing in Africa - a fall guy will be needed to say 'we are banning foreign investment in these two key areas' - I'm not holding my breath that they stick to implementing that 'proposal'.

I'm just not buying it, when all and sundry in the govt are saying we will trade openly and freely with the whole world once we leave the EU. Hence the deadly silence on the issue you raise where it's been left in the "proposal" only stage.

Concludes:

Back to the subject matter, tonight's close of 222p does not give me clear and unambiguous confirmation that it's a slam-dunk the SP will roar away from here. It might, it's just I have no confirmation to say so, as a mere 2p betterment to the average is insufficient other than to say the close of the XD period tonight is more or less in line with the previous 2+ years of XD periods - and both those went on to see the SP continue with the down trend.

I do, however, believe right now in the second half of 2018 and into 2019 is THE key turning point for the SP to finally break free from the longer term down trend. I just can't provide hard unarguable confirmational evidence, right now, to back up that claim.

Now the XD period has concluded, a 'quick' :) :) :) post, on the behaviour of the SP that I was on the look-out for, in that period, and whether it occurred.
***
[Uh-oh, Quick my Rsss - looks like being over 2 posts again! So call this is 1 of 2 ]
***
I've made no secret of my personal belief that the change of the CEO could/should be the pivotal moment for a resurrection in BT's fortunes after a torrid 2+ years of unrelenting SP decline. So ever since, have been looking for some sort of positive confirmation.

I'd posted on fantastic value metrics now being revealed in the balance sheet, a long term 200 day moving average now descending to within easy 'arm's reach', if the only the SP cared to reach up and clench it tightly (230's right now IMO, if interested) and thus commence the serious quest to break the grip of the oak-like, stronger, big long-term downtrend.

I posted of the average combined retraces of the past 2 years prior to this autumn's XD period being approx 20p max depth, between the night before XD day and the close of that period. Therefore I was on the look-out for a stellar performance by the SP to give one more confirmation of beating the average of this long retracing period by not dropping as deeply as the prior 2 years XD periods have.

- And was rewarded most handsomely by an initial XD week or so, of the SP closing each day in the high 220's (240p the "night before XD day) and even threatening to go for the 230's!

It looked like game-on. What could go wrong? Then came the terrible media-leak by that unmentionable colander-prone candidate to get his mates to blab to the media that he'd been head-hunted by BT for the CEO position, and he'd snootily turned BT down, thus using the occasion to publicly boost his own profile as some sort of highly desirable "in-demand CEO" and stabbing BT in the back by effectively saying all other candidates are now the poorer, second choice after him.

He is now the last guy I want to see chosen. He's all about himself that much is clear. And the damage was done. Instantly the SP made for flirting with the sub 220's as it has every right to do so in XD period - but let's admit what we all suspect - that "rat" candidate ruined a fine opening innings by the SP in the XD period.

I'm now all for this latest, ex-O2 Irish guy who just so happens to be the most experienced, longest-serving CEO in telecoms anywhere in the world at the moment - and his reputation is that of one who boosts employee moral and motivation to a common cause, and a sky high positive working environment. So the ex-O2 fella for me!

Back to the subject matter, tonight's close of 222p does not give me clear and unambiguous confirmation that it's a slam-dunk the SP will roar away from here. It might, it's just I have no confirmation to say so, as a mere 2p betterment to the average is insufficient other than to say the close of the XD period tonight is more or less in line with the previous 2+ ye - continu

Before moving on to a summary comment on the XD period, an apology:

Knew I shouldn't have brought up the "B" word, even though I posted of it being a 'tongue-in-cheek' remark, it always ends the same. So apologies to one and all, and to those responding to that post on the rumoured approach to a "B" positive CEO.

- It is not yet time, to safely mention the 'B' word on forums, in a throw-away manner as I did. I broke my own guidelines.

All bric à brac's that derived from then-on, between others, is entirely my fault, and not that of the posters. So soz about that.

Now about the XD period just ended tonight....................

I know I said in passing I was too tired to post further (losing credibility already lol! :)

But for want of a better phrase just played a little game of mine called 'find the floor' and was surprised to discover it could be right here, in the vicinity the SP is right now. (So really need to get an initial, decent buy price in the bag tomorrow).

Still think the SP is bearish and going down on Monday, but perhaps only within the lower 440's area - and if the little game I played bears fruit, this area could turn out to be the floor. Anyway, who can say with any certainty? - Be fun to see what actually comes out in the wash.

- Whatever - I want in!

PS. Where I mention the PE ratio in my post below - that's the forward P/E ratio after taking into account budgeted forecasts. The P/E ratio you see above in LSE's window above these posts is historic, and way, way, too high to be considered 'good value'.

If that P/E ratio LSE is showing above, was the forward P/Eratio - I'd be out.

Down, S/Chicken.

It's still looking distinctly bearish so I'm looking, if lucky, to get back in on Monday, after 2 or 3 years out of RMG, starting hopefully with first buy @ 444/443p or less, maybe.

Splitting my buys into structured tranches, so not important to call a be-all and end-all price (might try and forecast a possible SP floor at some point) but will instead aggregate the buying over weeks/months where opportunity in the SP allows, and so avoid havng to 'call it' with one big buy. And if still heavily bearish will slow my buying.

Value metrics galore now in the balance sheet. From 600p at mid summer retracing to now the lower side of 400's is enough downgrading IMO. That's the market's reaction to the last results. What will the interims say in November?

Fair price is just a few pence over a fiver. (So anywhere from here to a fiver is good value territory IMO).

(Unless the update in November is more bad news and confirms the battering since May - however the P/E ratio is now reflecting that and is below the sector and market average , reflecting the fall in revenue and pre-tax profits at the March year end results.)

So might be more than quite awhile before 500p is seen again IMO. As 500p is for 'everything' going okay, which according to the last full results the market said - no it isn't. So buying in low 400's and/or lower will do me nicely thank you very much :)

But down tomorrow I think, it's still gripped in a bear-hug IMO.

PS. When I say value galore in the balance sheert - I could back it up with facts, but too tired tonight. Good value is not an opinion - it's a fact. It's just that the market is saying that's all RMG is worth - but I say it's now making RMG look a value+ bargain.

If any readers work for a large Telecoms company and you see this woman (photo below - it's an old photo, she'll be 67 now) in say, your reception foyer - please post a shout-out on here as she was hired by Jan Du Plessis in June to headhunt a new CEO for BT

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/business-big-shot-anna-mann-sbs0xlb6vrr

-------------------------------

"In June, Mr du Plessis appointed City headhunter Anna Mann to find an experienced telecoms or technology executive to deliver on the company’s existing strategy."

Same Telegraph article, revealing Ronan Dunne as a front runner also said today:

"Other rumoured candidates include Dominique Leroy, the CEO of the Belgian telecoms operator Proximus."

Thanks for the heads-up tip-off, JD.

----------------------------
In 2016 the Telegraph said of him at the time of him stepping down from O2 -

"Mr Dunne is the UK telecommunications industry’s longest serving chief executive and is also a member of Telefónica’s SA Executive Committee. His 15-year tenure at O2 saw him grow the customer numbers from 18 to 25 million."

If it pans out, then (with tongue in cheek:) I reckon Aus will be his biggest suporter, as when questioned on Brexit he replied:

"Personally, I’m very pro European. I’m not naive enough to say everything works as it should, but a Britain in Europe is a more attractive investment opportunity for European and international businesses.

We should reduce the amount of red tape and bureaucracy, I completely agree, but we should fight to make Europe better rather than taking it all home. Europe would be a poorer place without Britain and Britain would be a poorer place without us taking an active part in leading Europe. I’m very much for us staying in."

"That's a lot of personal opinion there velo"

- Hee hee, I'll say, and then some Matherdj :)

It's good to have some sort of rebuttal as my original question was: What will be the most talked about subject early next year concerning BT in the media and BT bulletin boards? And NOT that their will be a takeover for definite, just ... maybe/ more highly likely than highly unlikely IMO.

I'm also aware I may be a victim of what's been labelled of what the Rusians call Trump as - "A useful idiot"

Have clues been planted in the media to mislead those looking under rugs fort signs of future activity? The FT article I referred to with the dubious "unamed source" was only 6 months or so ago, about the same time Black Rock the hedge fund people took loan of all DT's shares.

Could this be their counter plan to place 'fake news' to feed the media so that the market 'believes' it's possible DT might launch a take over bid? - Only for it to be conspiracy to drive the SP up - and DT does the dirty and dumps the lot of its entire holding whilst the SP has been driven higher by a lustful market?

DT is free to do both from January/Febrruary - either buy more shares - or sell the lot and have done with.

What will they do once they're released from restrictive contract covenants and stand outside the prison gates?

Just what will they do?

If they do nothing - they call the shots - they will have the law on their side. with 13%/14% ownership of BT as the biggest shareholder in BT they will have every legal right to demand changes / more seats on the board - without even launching a take-over bid.

What will they do with that new found power they will hold over BT? And it WILL be considerable power.

Sulley - Even though it was revealed back in 2016 that Tim Höttges, the top man was named as pre-planned to insert himself on to BT's BOD - I have formed the opinion that he is a "good egg". I think he will seek investors approval; nothing suggests he intends making a hostile move. He will want you with him. So I don't think he will want to shaft investors. But that's just my personal speculation.

I've been in and out of BT twice already, since 2017. I was musing over a position at 206p a month or so back but blew it as I flicked to continue top-slicing a big investment of mine which was already 175% up so moved quickly when I saw it falling. When I wrent back to complete buying BT the price had risen fractionally - and I let greed overwhelm me. I thought I would catch it better later in the day - but after languishing for so long on the floor it went up top 208 and I think from memory it closed at 211p or something. Typical PI's greed messing up.

I was asked that exact same question just days after that debacle and replied I was now waiting to see what the new CEO would be like before coimmitting. But as I recently posted I have placed a v low cheeky chancer's computer limit-buy order in play during XD period. Thought it was game-on when I saw 216p earlier today. But happy to wait if the market is intent oin doom laden behaviour before committing.

It's an interesting dilema - I've been in two holdings where a takeover bid was sauccessful and got shafted twice with the takeover price being less than the current SP at the time - the most notorious being Poundland. Made a small packet in the preceeding year - went back and got a right royal woirk-over due to that unexpected takeover bid.

I repeat - I don't think Höttges is a bad guiy. The BT bod appear to love him. Why worry about a lack of a CEO if he's available for advice? Just get the lackies to follow his instructions/orders. Horderves which must be obeyed :)

- Will you shut up!
Well you started it!
We did not!
Yes you did, by invading Poland.
Wailing
Look this'll cheer you up, here - I'll do the funny walk

Aus @ "So just for interest if DT do show interest in BT will they need to pay fair value or can they take advantage of the current low valuation ? Or somewhere in between"

- In early 2019 they can do whatever they please. Anything whatsoever! All legal restrictions on DT lifted. They will call the tune.

Concludes with:

6) The media/analysts as a group were dumbfounded by the speed of the announcement of Gavpants firing. They expected it - but not so suddenly a week after the big investors meeting. Nothing appears to have been planned in advance for any form of succession planning in regards to the CEO. Why?

7) In an FT article published as recently as February of this year they reported that a company called Capacity who hosted IT events had received information from an unnamed DT source back in 2016 at the time of the EE acquisition ************** deal; who revealed TWO facts about DT's intentions that have since been hotly denied by both BT and DT.

One of the "facts" has been subsequently proven to be 100% true; the second fact can not be enacted until DT is freed from all contractual covenants very early in 2019. If it comes to pass as the first fact has, then both companies have deliberately mislead the media. Is there any reason to suppose the second revelation to be untrue after having one of them proven to be 100% correct in direct contravention to what both companies once denied?

Judge for yourselves - here's the quote from the FT:

"...private source told Capacity before the 2016 deal was completed that Deutsche Telekom would want to buy BT as soon as it could. The same person said that Höttges would take a non-executive role on BT’s board – something that both companies officially denied - but later proved to be true!"

-----------------------
PS. What the CEO of DT said about BT at that conference:

“They are a very attractive company,” said Höttges about BT in answer to a question from Capacity at the Mobile World Congress event in Barcelona today."

I rest my case :)