Member Info for Velo

Thanks Aus, but I've not been away from BT; had time only to read here, but do genuinely need to reduce the number of posts I've been doing, as my personal investing always suffers, when I post too much.

Anyway, I agree it's 'feels v different' with the SP at the moment - but I think with good intent in the background. There is something totally unique that's happened with the SP over the past 4 months commencing from mid May to present, that no long term BT investor has experienced since the start of the big down trend back in Jan 2016 to present.

And only one guess as to what that is -
No, it's not sex with the missus - It's 4 months of an up trending SP which is the longest rally-period ever since the big down trend began back in January 2016.

From mid May, after falling from the 250's it bounced along a v low 200p+ floor, never lower than 201/202, and never ever closing on 200 itself. BUT from that point in mid May, the SP climbed, zigged and zagged - but never falling all the way back to ground zero in the v low 200's when it paused after each climb, and although there are a couple of peaks in that period that are still higher than Friday's close, the current SP shows a four month positive momentum uptrend from that 200+ in mid May to 228 now and repeat - has never revisited that 200+ floor once, and overall is still climbing.

Is that why you feel "the behaviour is different"?

- ie., repeat: The longest uptrend in BT's recent history since early January 2016 It's a momentous occasion I think. And all because they fired the old CEO (who's last act ironically was to deliver a best-ever, ultra top-notch plan, to eradicate the pension deficit for ever, over the next decade, commencing in 2020).

Ultra short term trends have been bullish and positive.
Medium term trends = ditto
Institutions fav long term trends = ditto.

But here comes the downer. Turned to my personal Long term trend, in high expectation. Was expecting to see some movement in the ultra long term trend lines, the one I call the Death Star downtrend, but it hasn't given up any ground. It hasn't budged, maybe a slight miniscule kinking is all it will allow in deference to this longest spell uptrend. But it's still got the thumbs-down on BT.

So anyone who thinks the next step is to revert to it's old character of back down, down, down, then I don't have a reply as that Death Star ultra long term trend line is still negative.

But to anyone who believes the situation is at least improving - then I reply, the evidence is .... is self-evident, in the behaviour of the SP over the last 4 months, counting from mid May to present.

- But below decks (short/medium term) it's all systems go and building strength to try and reclaim the lost ground of that night before the XD day and shake hands with 240p once again. Continue with this 4 month uptrend and it should some day, break the black Death Star down trend.

The fundamental metrics were good, but are now ex

Just so long as it's not a storm in a D cup either :)

Quote:
"In May 2016 BT’s shares were trading at around £4.52 each. At the pound/euro exchange rate at the time, each BT share Deutsche Telekom owned was worth €5.92"

May 2016 exchange rate comes out fractionally a little less than today's rate at a then rate of €1.3004 to the pound, so that roughly equates to £4.55 per share - which fits in with most reports stating that DT has seen their investment in BT fall by half its original value that they received, for the EE sale.

So, not a bad guesstimate there by Aus.

@ RETIREMENT below:

Perfect timing? Hmm ...thank you, but what about plain good ol' lucky ba'strd eh? :)
I'd settle for temporary good fortune :) but thanks anyway.

Look how the big downtrend turned round from 96p and like a Great White shark headed back for the little 88 fishing boat, with the theme tune to Jaws filling my ears.

As of tonight, it nonchalantly closed by cruising past at a leisurely pace; as if checking out the little 88 fishing boat at just 91.50p - just inches away.
I think it might attempt returning on Monday for a nibble, but will the flailing, spindly, rowing oars be enough to keep it at bay come Monday? Maybe :)

- In the mean time, put the call for Quint to come up on deck!

On the whole, broadly in agreement with your views there Sko/pol - apart from the final 3 words of your closing sentence.

ie., I am far less confident in expecting to see 'around 145p' by .... ".... end Q1 2019."

Obviously I hope that does come to fruition, but I'm doubtful of seeing the 140's so soon. Not doubtful about seeing around 145 in the future - just very doubtful of seeing it so soon.

As Stormy Daniels is alleged to have said to Trump.

Now this is very interesting and just shows, to keep nagging them as foul-ups do occur. I still have not received any vouchers in my HL acc (nominee acc)

Chrisha1es below says he's with HL too,. and he received his vouchers on Monday.

What?!?

And Here's the reply I've just reveived from HL:

"Thank you for your message.
Greene King vouchers for Shareholders holding the Shares within a SIPP Account were received into Hargreaves Lansdown today.
These will be posted to Shareholders via 1st class post next week.
Kind regards"

Hmm... Only received today huh??? Methinks mine slipped off the back as funny it's always the same no matter which broker I use when I haven't received dividends it's always due tomorrow - and there they are on the very next working day - the day after I raise a query!

So, don't give up if you haven't received them, complain/raise a query. We're alll mostly using low-cost broker platforms. So there might be hiccups from time to time - keep up the pressure on your broker - not GNK.

As helpfully posted below somewhere - You must hold a min of 100 shares by/ on the 31st July.
(Check those two qualifiers first before contacting your broker)

"Wars always follow periods of financial and political turmoil.."

You'll have to post the years where there was no financial and political turmoil, as it's all I've ever known since childhood onwards. Must have been busy enjoying myself in the years when there wasn't such turmoil in evidence. There's always perceived financial and political turmoil.

In fact, there hasn't been a single year since the end of WWII where there has not been a war raging somewhere in the world.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_1945–1989 & 1990-2018

I'm of the camp that this tariff spat between Trump and China is over-egged by the media. It's just one more to add to all the other world 'turmoils' that come and go - ad infinitum.

Thanks C/bol. I had another look at why I just had to buy today instead of waiting, as all indications, all common sense, is still in force for this powerful, deep, downtrend to continue unabatred.

And I'm even more pleased I bought today.

I regard this 88p to mid 80's area as an extremely strong area and can easily imagine the downtrend (temporarily at least) floundering here and giving it up, and having to come back at a later date to have anopther pop if it's so minded).

Easy for me to buy more if it continues lower as I'm not fully committed yet, with only an initial small-ish buy today.

The only concern I have is if there should be further, clearer, profit warnings out of the blue. But I have no reason to suspect that as likely. Besides the law of averages is on GFM's side as -

64.6% of companies only issued the one profit warning
23% made two profit warnings
and 12.4% issued three or more warnings

In effect, of all the companies issuing a profit warning, only 35% of the total went on to report further warnings, most issue only one - and virtually all recover, given enough time - it's not the end of the world.

Earnings, interesting - I'm seeing the same analysts figures as MarkB for this year and next year - this year's consensus (as posted below) of analysts calling for $49.6m net profit,

- but tend to lean towards SK/Pol of it coming in less than that.

I like, if possible, to have a glance at any latest Trailing 12 month figure where if a latest interim result is made available , that is incorporated, to come up with a best guess figure which in this case includes the June closing interim figures - and that comes in with even less than SKPol's at £42.8m

So,
Analysts say $49.6m net profit.
SKPol says $45m
TTM says $42.8m

If the actual net profit comes in a lot less than the analysts current $49.6m expectation, then I'm hoping they do some recalculations closer to the time, and arrive somewhere in the vicinity of the two lower guesstimates, as you know how they can react if a company is said to have failed to meet the market's expectations.

As most do nowadays, I hold GNK in a nominee account - last year I received vouchers. But sold the shares earlier this year to bank the profit.

Was back in on 31st July this year - again in a nominee acc, so just phoned my broker as still haven't received them. Unlike your broker though LGInvestor - mine (HL) have promised to look in to it and report back tomorrow.

- I'll post the outcome on here. By law it shouldn't matter whether shares are held directly or via a nominee acc

(I presuppose your broker gets them all, then it's up to the broker to dish them out proportionately to the nominees).

Just bought my initial tranche of perhaps a further 4 more buys over the coming months to complete - Does that make me one of the first on this board to buy sub 100? :) (Got in earlier for 88.4p even though signs were it might drop further today (which it is continuing to do)

I don't think the SP has completed retracing yet, but such is the depth of this fall that I don't trust my luck waiting for the floor to appear; hence splitting my purchase over 4 or 5 buys in an attempt to get a 'reasonable' price.

Won't be surprised if it floors at today's price you see above right now, or further retracing down to 80p, or 70p, or even 65p, but don't forsee anything beyond 55p (absolute worst case scenario). Further buying by me will be an attempt to buy around the vicinity of those points should it stil be a heavy downtrend - or on sight of a committed uptrend should it rally soon.

Anyway, I'm buying. The metrics for GFM are absolutely stunning if you're a bargain value hunter. They were stunning before this big retrace and they're even more stunning now - on paper (ie., Balance sheet/Trading, Profit&Loss Acc/ Cash acc's etc.,)

Have trawled the posts on here right back past the trading update and am surprised no one's discussed or picked up on the "real" reason for the big retrace. (Speed reading, so may have missed such posts).

There was a mushy, profit warning almost hidden in the update. Wasn't clear at first, but subsequent SP retracing has confirmed this share is behaving in exactly the same way as countless other profit-warning-hit shares.

That's my belief anyway, at least as far as regarding GFM as suffering from the effects of a company issued profit warning - it's in that RNS. That being the case (in my mind) then one or two things may follow:

1) The price on the day before the update will probably not be revisited this year, nor next year, but maybe 'safer' to say maybe from winter 2019.

2) Won't be surprised once this initial dive has levelled out, if over several months from now, the SP in a dead-cat bounce kind of way, maybe/maybe not, temporarily revisits v low 130's (but only if very lucky) - but not hold it.
(As the SP was in the low 140's before it gapped down on receipt of the trading update and then continued dropping; that in some minds might be as good as back to normal).

3) The price will more often than not dissapoint rather than delight for the rest of this year and most of next year.

4) By Autnmun 2019 I won't be surprised to see the dissapointing performance of the SP stabalise somewhat and from that point on be regarded as more "safe" ie., not as volatile.

I've come to the conclusion that the recent sell by Woodford of 1.5% of PFG shares is a one-off and that if there is more to come at a later date it would be of a similar or less quantity.

Would DB be taking some of Woodfords shares if they thought he was going to continue drip-feeding sells of the remaining huge 23%+ in to the market, and thus devalue their shares?

The exercise is part of a measure, I believe, to help meet a mandatory, regulatory 10% maximum holding guidance concerning unquoted securities in his funds. A snippet from the FT back in April -

"...The disposal of the AJ Bell stake came as concerns grew that the fund (Woodford's) was close to hitting a 10 per cent regulatory ceiling on the proportion of assets that can be invested in unquoted securities.
The equity income fund is allowed to invest up to 10 per cent of the portfolio in unquoted stocks but the proportion held in these securities rose to 9.69 per cent at the end of January, up from 9.47 per cent in December.
At the end of February, following the AJ Bell disposal, unquoted stocks in Woodford accounted for 9.66 per cent of the fund..."

I'm of the opinion it's all part and parcel of a restructuring to assist in keeping within his maximum 10% threshold.

If you're passing a nearby filing cabinet could you do me a favour please and tear off my post below that begins:

"Fairly confident the floor is in now."

- And file it under obituries of Famous Last Words ?

Ta!

135p was last seen 8 years ago, just after the end of the last stockmarket crash in 2010.

120p would put it at the heart of the last crash in 2009.

A smidgen just above 100p would put it level with the single worst day for BWNG in the last market crash in 2008

The all time high was 2014 from which, the SP has never returned to (approx 465p)

Back at 135p as I type; will it want to visit 120's next??? Eeehhhhh :(

Made a decision.

Going to wait until I see where I 'think' the "apparent" floor is, and wait until it then commences to trend to the upside somewhat, or just stabalises - then (having previously said I won't because I'm overweight in this share) I'm going to add a small top-up. At this stage of the game that's called catching a falling knife and regarded as for for fools only
- but I expect the worst of this giant retrace to abate come January 2019.

Now have the ridiculous situation where the fwd dividend yield is twice that of the fwd value of the P/E ratio !!

And for the year just ended March 2018 after the net profit crashing from the previous year's £44.3m down to just £12.5m you can understand why the market has the downers on BWNG.

However, give the dog a chance - look at the forecasts - Y/Ending March 2019 is given as an increase to £64.9m net profit and the following year as £68.6m net profit - good or what?

- Revenue in all years from before the SP crash to currently has increased steadily year after year, and is forecast to increase year on year yet again.

Question therefore - is all worst case scenarios now priced-in? - Or not?

Romaron, I'm struggling to comprehend the first sentence - if it's correct, then could you expand on it?

"PFG also reduced in NSF on 6 September"

- I take it you mean the company that capitilised on PFG's woes (along with Morses) ie - Non Standard Finance?
If so, is it a simple typo and you meant instead -

*** Woodford also reduced in NSF on 6 September *** ?

If so, then I get it, and didn't realise he had reduced his holdings there too; otherwise if you mean it's something else entirely, that'll be something else to get my head around.

Can't understand Woodford's sudden about face to commence part-sells in PFG. As recently as the 28th February his fund spokesperson (ie.,needs Woodford's approval, himself) said publicly at the time of the rights issue and thus responding to his his resultant increased stake in PFG:

" We can now look forward to this company (PFG) returning to normal through the remainder of this year and into 2019 with a stronger balance sheet, an investment grade credit rating, a 10% return on assets and in excess of a 25% return on equity,' said a Woodford spokesman.
We expect the business to establish an industry leading working relationship with the regulator and to rebuild its reputation as the premier company in this significant and underserved part of the credit market. "

As he prides himself on long term holding - that bullish statement was only 7 months ago, yet now he's part-selling? And therein lies perhaps an explanation - I've read several accounts that due to poor performance in some of his funds he risks breeching industry regulations and may be forced to reduce certain exposures in order to satisfy regulatory authorities. If that is true, then possibly this current selling by Woodford might be limited to merely come into line with regulations, and his original fund statement made back in February still holds true for him?

Fairly confident the floor is in now. Not expecting any more deep retraces, for now.
So say ta-ra to the £10's. ???

Ah thanks tinlid, glad I had one last check-in before turning in for the night. That answers one query I had. As Woodford had sold approx, in round figures 1.5% of the company's shares I was expecting the % to be similar, but DB are showing as now holding a grand total of 5.35%, and thus are above the 5% threshold that must be reported lest they be a bidder.

I thought as I posted, well if they hold over 5% of PFG they can't be a new ii, as they're only gaining an additional 1.5% so I should have switched on to that fact quicker.

Why are these types of RNS releases obsessed with taking up space to splitting the shares into voting shares and non-voting shares? Who gives a flying what-not? Just tell us in simple English and a further click to then only reveal the clear as mud RNS they release at present.

But then again, making RNS's clear, straighforward and easy to read would keep the PI's too well informed - and they defo don't want that, do they? :)

Yes, glad someone else picked up on that. I noticed that, just after it came out at 4:05pm, but only getting free now to post on it.

I immediately thought they were a new ii buy, but the amount traded is identical to Woodford's sale @ 253,276,811 shares (wish they'd write and lay out these things in plain English) - but it is a new ii onboard, nonetheless.

I thought initially, the sale by Woodford might settle the SP once the market knew it was a single entity reducing their holding, then mused it might weaken the SP further if the market thinks it's the first of more, and much larger reductions in Woodford's holdings, to come over the rest of the year.

Then I backed-up and thought with a new ii on board, it might instead bring the retrace to a halt.

But tonight's close looks more likely continuation of the retrace on the cards,than not, maybe.

As I was undecided I took an initial small position after 4pm today, then whatever happens I can average either up or down accordingly to my budgeted level.

- Whatever, the trend lines I was taking my cue from remain 100% unimpressed, have not flinched one iota and are still wearing a down trending bearish face; so it's still all up in the air between deciding if this is an occasion of between here and 600 - or case of sub 600.

I think those 2 RNS's will influence the market; for better or worse, we're soon to find out.