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Whatever, based on the revenue being in line with forecasts I'm willing to accept the huge increase in full year net profit forecast may not show up in the 4th qtr or year end trading result.

Should have read:

Whatever, based on the revenue being in line with forecasts I'm willing to accept the huge increase in full year net profit forecast may not show up in the 4th qtr BUT IN the year end trading result.

Kudos to you Ascoyne - I've made a right mess of trying to get a decent copy of the first quarter results - you've obtained them from a free site. My source is from a subscription site and their reference point only has up to 31st March and no mention of the first quarter up to end of June. Checked this morning and there were rows of quarterly results going back to 31/12/16 so should have realised it was only a foul-up over the first quarter update of this year and not a policy cancellation of quarterly results.

The figures show, as GP sums up that the first quarterly update has (as expected) a c2% decline in revenue against last year's quarter. That's in line with the forecast/estimated annual revenue. In fact the difference between last year's full year revenue of £23.476bn and the estimated forecast for y/e March 2019 of £23.313bn I have as a 1.8% reduction.
- But bear in mind there's this complicated IFRS15 cockamaymie new accountancy proceedure in force now for BT, where last year's figures get altered for accountancy reasons.

So it would appear from the 1st qtr to the 2nd qtr things things are unlikely to show any dramatic change in either direction on such a scale of such huge revenue figures, so I'd hazard a guess that the 2nd qtr revenue will be in line with previous guidance even though that guidance is to expect a small decline in revenue. So the market is not going to be disappointed nor surprised. It's going to get what it was lead to believe to expect - so all good there.

- It's the net profit that GP summarises as 3% up in the first qtr, that seems unduly pessimistic compared to the estimated annual forecast ie.,

y/e Actual March 2018 = £2.032bn
y/e Est March 2019 . . .= £2.386bn

which I make not as a 3% increase as per the first quarter is - but a stonking 17% increase in net profit for the full year!
(The increase in net profit coming despite a declining revenue coming from mainly cost cutting exercises, redundancies etc., ?)

That being the case, might the expected savings not show up in the quarterly comparisons but as a year end 'exceptional item'?

Whatever, based on the revenue being in line with forecasts I'm willing to accept the huge increase in full year net profit forecast may not show up in the 4th qtr or year end trading result.

That being the case my simple answer to Tiny Tim's original question is - I expect the Nov 1st update NOT to disappoint the market but reassure it, that all is in line and to come in with what has been forecast in previous guidance. And as currently the market is in a stable bullish sentiment towards BT will it be a case of: if BT doesn't disappoint (nor impress) will that be seen as a plus in that BT can be trusted not to disappoint in the future?
Therefore I'm expecting a continuation of the bullish SP performance.

Also, will Gavpants want to go out on a low or a (continues...)

Yes, BT is cheap.
Yes rumours have been circulating for years of takeover rumours, just as BT has been getting cheaper and cheaper for years.
So the reason for the current strength of the SP?

My two-penneth worth is it's because of a genuine change in sentiment. The catalyst being the removal of the CEO.

Only then could the market see the inherent value, the cheaponess of the SP, and possible freebie, leg-up of speculative take-over rumours.

Consider:

The full year results came out; they weren't terrible, terrible - in fact net profit was up on the previous year !
Along with the results showing improving net profit, GP revealed a new plan for the future which included 'the final solution' to the pension deficit - once and for all.

The SP sunk like a stone.

It kept on falling to the worst of all possible floors - 200p. What the hell next?!?!!!?

Almost instantly GP was fired, as realisation sank in that the market was in total hatred of GP.

Then talk about irony!
Suddenly with GP fired, the forecasts for the coming year didn't look half bad, nor the year after that - both had considerable increasing net profit shown. The market now liked the sound of that.

Then it went absolutely overboard about "the plan". They couldn't bring themselves to congratulate GP, instead they talked about "BT's" plans.

I was preparing a post for here on the irony of how GP must feel robbed over acceptance of his plan, but not of him
- when finallty the media 'fessed up and published the truth with a brilliant title worthy of 'Freddy Starr Ate My Hamster' - and the media had beaten my post to the punch.

They published and ran in several places on the irony of GP's fate entitling their reporting with the brilliant header of:
"The Wrong Man With The Right Plan."

From 201p-ish the SP started lifting away, and apart from some retraces to the high teens of 200 - kept on and still is in an upward trend. The longest, continuous uptrend in near, almost 3 years!

BT was already cheap yet never rose like this.
Speculationof of DT doing a takeover of BT has been running for years , but again the SP never in all that time responded so condsistently for so long a period as currently. This is no accident of circumstances

- it is in my opinion a genuine change in market SENTIMENT. But you'd be hard pressed to find many articles recommending BT as a buy. But the market doesn't read what journos write otherwise all we'd need do is buy recommendations in Investors Chronicle every week LOL!

And that sentiment change commenced with the dissmisal of GP - only then, could they agree on how good a plan "BT" has actually produced for the immediate future. Amazing how your vision clears when somene you hate is renoved from your line of vision.

Sentiment change is what happened.

It'll follow him to the grave that - The Wrong Man With The Right Plan.

Tiny Tim,

Re: Speculation on BT as a friendly takeover target by DT.

It's been put into the public domain by the media for at least the past 3 years.

What's made the speculation grow is DT's point blank refusal to deny the allegations and state categorically it has no intentions towards BT. All it ever replies to reporters is: "No comment". Why not kill the rumours dead in their tracks and deny any interest? No comment is just not going to do it - anyway - all academic, January and the truth will out one way or t;other.

(And surprisingly DT were caught out red handed with being er shall we say being "economical with the truth"

- DT point blank, flatly denied that a take-over plan for BT included placing the CEO of DT on to BT 's board of directors as total fabrication, gossip and rumour.

Before the year was out, the top man of DT himself - Tim hoettges, the CEO of DT no less, sits on BT's board - one up to the gossipers and insider rumour mongers eh?)

Incidentally I posted in the sumnmer that speculation might reach a climax in early January next year - (and included a lot of media quotes) as that is when DT is freed legally from binding covenants not to sell their shares or buy more than 15% of BT's stock (Currently they own 12% of BT). From January they are free men - to do as they please.

It is all rumour and speculation (and fun:) One quote I left out in the summer, which I'll now post below with the website source, because although it's just gossipy ruimour - it's been enough for the media to report on - (It's about BT insiders fears ultimate fears of ulterior motives behind the 13,000 redundancies)

http://uk.businessinsider.com/savage-layoffs-at-bt-could-be-preparing-the-company-for-a-sale-2018-5

"Insiders believe the cuts — along with the depressed stock price — are part of a plan to prepare the company to be sold, possibly in a transaction involving Deutsche Telekom. A spokesperson for BT told Business Insider that the company did not comment on rumours and gossip. The spokesperson did say that the company has reached a funding agreement with the pension trustees. Deutsche Telekom did not respond to a request for comment".

If you Goofgle enough you can also find other media reports of why a takeover by DT is a complete non-starter and total nonsense - but anyway, it's all good fun :)

PS. If you read near the bottom of that link they then propose how "legally" BT could dump the pension staff so that the govt picks up the entire bill! - and BT gets out of trouble - but only if it gets taken over first and do so legally - dump the pension problem on the government.

Again gossip and rumour, but read that near the bottom, makes for an intersting asumption on how to nullify the pension debt problems - by ultra, uber, agressive means, but legally.

Tiny Tim @ - "Hi Velo....... Results day always sees a big move, which way do you think they will go? ...."

Hi Tiny Tim,

Only just getting time now, to respond to your post.

First off, no one knows (riches galore to anyone who has inside information on the likely direction of the interim trading update) because there's been no intervening updates from the company since the final results for y/e 31st March 2018. Trawled through RNS's for some hint of an intervening update but not a sausage!
So everyone in the dark, until 7:00am Thursday Nov 1st.

Found this though -

Apparently this is the last occasion ever, of only having one (H1) interim update per year as (if I've read the guidance properly) BT is reporting QUARTERLY from the new financial year, then it will be a piece of cake to form an opinion.

In the meantime once this half year update is out, it should be somewhat easier to guesstimate if on on course or not to achieve the analysts/market forecasts for the full year ending March 2019.

The attention/interest is not on whether BT produces more or less than last year - it's whether the interim update shows how close or how far adrift it is from the analysts/market forecasts for BT - will it be beaten or fail to meet the forecast? To that end, here are the market's forecasts for the FULL year -

Full year forecast to March 2019 for Revenue = . £23,313B
Full year forecast to March 2019 for Net profit = . £ 2,386B

What I'll be looking for is - will the H1 interim result on Nov 1st be roughly half those figures, or more :) or less :( ?

Secondly I have no idea if BT is "cyclical" in its earnings; does it have a history of producing more revenue in the first half or the second half of the year?

If it does have a preference, it'll be critical to apportioning the right fractional weighting to the interim update if historically the first half has a tendency to come in less than the second half. (Haven't checked that out - anyone know if there is a cyclical, historical weighting to BT's interims?)

That's the problem with no trading update before the half year interim is published - it leaves you in the dark. Should be a thing of the past from next year (if I've read the guidance correctly) - it'll be 4 trading updates of progress per year! Which is excellent news in itself, and would make forecasting how far to achieving the year end forecasts a piece of cake in comparison to the current set-up.

I'm pleased you brought that up Keith, as it's caused me to examine my memory - and an attempt to recover storage files now lost as on a replacement desktop computer. As a result of that, I might have Black Rock confused with Blackstone. Come back to those two later - but first Black Rock.

Black Rock "appears" to have made their first foray into holding BT's shares at the end of 2015 on the 1st Dec as media talk was rife of DT's intentions towards BT and the agreed sale of EE reached it's conclusion and were signed over in early 2016.

(BT had a seriously glorious unending bull run from the crash of 2009 up to the very end of 2015 with serious SP growth - the best! But it ended by the end of 2015 which is where Black Rock shows up).

Nothing heard of B/Rock throughout 2016.

Then a flurry of transactions by them in April 2017, virtually within days of each other - 4/4, 5/4, 7/4, 24/4 & 27/4.
Interestingly in amongst those April dates was one for DT transactions in BT's shares.

There was another by B/Rock on 8/5/17 and that was it for 2017.

Then they started again on 13/2/2018 and then twice in one day on 19/3, followed by 27/3, 28/3 & 4/5.
And then again yesterday.

In all those transactions they were not linear - not building up a position and holding, but up and down. They are a hedge fund so it's assumed their algorithms pointed to a coming temporary uptrend and they bought and sold in minor movements but no doubt with circa 5% of BT's shares in their pocket, maybe resulting in the odd one million pound profit, here and there, by rebuying at a lower price after each mini rally? (did similar myself from Oct to Dec 2017; no, not made £1M - but £1k profit - LOL!)

I say appears to be their first foray into BT, as I gave up looking after 2012 as there was nothing reported in 2014 nor 2013
- and it was the end of BT's magnificent bull run by 2015 - which coincidentally is when Black Rock appear in Dec 2015.

If they were (in BT before 2012) then shout out, as I've looked back years, but not enough interest in me to go back even further.
---------------

I've found the hedge fund executive on DT's board but it's not Black Rock he's the exec of - but Blackstone (another private equity institution with similar net income as Black Rock, but Black Rock is the more infamous of the two).

With so many shares in my portfolios and endless amounts on watch lists I'm asking myself if late last night I confused the two as I was certain it was B/Rock but the facts show it's Blackstone that has an exec on DT's board and it was the company that, that exec represents as reported in the FT's Alphaville section (can't find it anymore) that had been given DT's 12% holding in BT's shares for "safekeeping".

And if so, Blackstone appears nowhere in the records of trading in BT shares. Which still leaves the puzzling question of Black Rock.

What was their reason for a ........ (continues.....)

Aaah just having a cuppa - and there's more.....

Or Premise II
------------------

Perhaps it's true that Black Rock are just "managing" DT's 12% holding for them.

As in DT have answered questions to movements on their balance sheet saying words to the effect: "We're very happy with our holding in BT. We've adjusted the balance sheet for when we gain and when we lose in our holding in BT, it's not a problem, we're very happy" (Google the various reports).

One of the things that's always puzzled me about BT's 2.75 year SP decline is that the FCA is showing shorts taken out against BT as Nil. Zero - nothing at all in that time.

Strange.

Hedge funds are like blood hounds with these things. Nobody in the world shorted BT as it lost 50% of it's share price??? No one????

Thing is the FCA only force companies shorting to own up once they cross a 0.5% threshold (do you recall Carrillion at it's peak holding the market record with 25% of it's shares in the hands of shorters?) So anyone having 0.49% is ignored and unreported.

What if Black Rock have been shorting and reversing as and when, with DT's 12% holding but requiring a kitty of 5% to make serious money for DT - on the side - hence DT informing the media - "we're not worried, not a problem".

Not worried? Has that been the attitude of BT private investors all this time, not worried about the big fall???

But the records show nil for shorting activity against BT.
So what if Black Rock actually bought 5% of DT's shares by complicated balance sheet loans and buys (hence the questions to DT about their balance sheet and their lack of concern over BT's decling share price).

And with that 5% somehow through the myriad of companies they own placed loads and loads of 0.49% shorts thus evading reporting to the FCA?

When a short closes they have to buy back - and up goes the SP.
Black Rock have ben buying, substantially. And the SP has been rising nicely.

----------------------
You know what's missing here? A dead body!
If one of them gets run over - I'm submitting it to the BBC as murder mystery thriller. Just need a dead body now.

Just clearing up for the night and I notice an RNS up above released this mid afternnon.
"Ooh" I think "Is that perhaps some announcement of some event that's contributed towards the bullish performance of the SP of late?"

- But no, it's just a 'boring' update of a major shareholder's increasing stake (so in a way true - it's institutions that drive a trend)

But wait - I notice two things:

1) It's by Black Rock, the hedge fund people.

2) It's crossed the 5% threshold that the FCA demands is the regulatory % that a company must by law inform the public of their stake as often a new stake that crosses the 5% threshold is sometimes, occasionally, a prelude to further acquisition of building shares as a prelude to launching a takeover - so it's set at 5% for reporting - whatever your reasons for holding that much, may be.

DT holds 12% in BT and is prevented from owning more than 15% until after Jan 2019. So what?

Only that Black Rock is the company chosen by DT to "manage" their holding in BT's shares (announced publicly early this year) and also that the main guy in Black Rock also sits on DT's board - just as the main guy of DT sits on BT's exeutive board of directors!

So one way to own more than you're legally allowed to, is to get a mate (so to speak) to buy shares that you will buy from them (for a handsome bonus) after you announce a takeover. Otherwise what's Blackrock doing declaring 5% holding in BT whilst DT holds 12%? What are they up to?

Prior to the 5% threshold, Black Rock held 4.9%
Strange don't you think how it sat below the "law's jurisdiction" at 4.9% and now makes it's move to declare its hand?

Otherwise if they're 'managing' DT's holding for them then they'd have to register 12% wouldn't they?

They can't because they're DT's property of ownership - ergo that new 5% holding by Black Rock is in fact B/Rock's own money.

As they're all mates, that's 17% of BT's shares as of tonight in the hands of a self-declared working-team.

I find those types of RNS shareholder updates difficult to read so might be misreading it, so maybe I'm just having a bit of fun overthinking it.

As stated below here are the salient bits in the RNS that appear to have left the market distinctly unimpressed:

"As previously indicated, performance management of the field force has CONTINUED TO BE RESTRICTED during the implementation phase of the recovery plan. This has meant a focus solely on managing activity and customer outcomes with no use of performance related pay or financial objectives. As a result, collections performance during the third quarter remained AROUND 10% LOWER than historical performance which was consistent with the second quarter of the year. The main characteristic of THE SHORTFALL continues to be LOWER THAN EXPECTED collections from customers who were active during the migration to the new operating model, particularly due to a higher number of customers making payments lower than their contracted rate. The CEM's collecting from these customers did not typically originate the loan AND THEREFORE THE CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP IS NOT AS STRONG. . . .
Active home credit customer numbers ended the third quarter at 449,000, DOWN FROM 464,000 at June 2018, reflecting the continued focus on collections performance RATHER THAN NEW CUSTOMER RECRUITMENT.
Action continues to be taken to align the cost base WITH THE REDUCED SIZE OF THE BUSINESS."

---------------------------
The remainder of the RNS update is bullish on meeting a variety of operational targets, with some fiscal achievements here and there.

And there was a 'reminder' sentence thrown in at the end of the above mentioned particular paras, that read -
* * * " Provident remains the clear market leader in the home credit market with a strong franchise" * * *
--------------------------

On a personal note (as posted the other month) I've taken an initial part-position in PFG using an experimental method not previously used by myself (contrarian profit-warning hit shares) with the expectation that PFG would fit in the typical recovery period - that's usually one year after the day of the first profit warning. Amongst the data I collected was the warning that a few outside of the average ie., "deviant" shares can exceed the 12 month observation and take 18 months before showing any signs of a more stable progress of recovery. As the SP has retraced well below the post 12 month marker low of 580p's I'm now assuming that PFG is one of those deviants. So I'm keeping my roller coaster hat on awhile longer. (18 months? - That means right to the very end of this year then before it's safe to take my hat off). So if in the months that follow on from January 2019 and the SP is getting even worse, I will have to admit defeat and sell or reduce. It is an experiment after all; hence my smaller than usual part-buys.
So when I think the (continues) ....

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