Member Info for Velo

Thanks for the heads-up on the RNS Julian. My first reaction upon reading your post was: What RNS ?!?!

Mind you, there was one on Oct 25th last year so should have expected one now, despite it being an oddball '5 month' update. Been examining why I wasn't aware and it comes down to my long term strategy with PHTM. It's a profit warning hit share. And there are a specific set of several steps that "usually" occur after such warnings are issued - right from day one. And I'd already decided that 'trusting' the SP of PHTM was a no-go area until next summer, where I don't expect a recovery as such, but safer progress from then on. So, really my strategy is folded-arms do nothing for 12 months commencing from the day of the profit warning. I have been impressed with the resilience of the SP, so it could fit with those minority of shares within a profit warning that attempt to become safer from the 6 month point onwards. If so that would mean from November-ish onwards, and that this may be the last time 100p is seen again. (closed at 99p last night, this site had several closing errors across the board yesterday).

- On the other hand that's two re-visits to 100p. It could stand a third and maybe, maybe get away with it, but re-visit 100p once too often and it will get breached. For the moment, 100p now gets promoted to notable strong support area, and thus would take some serious selling to break past down it in the future. At most that would be until summer next year, but if this is going to be one of the better performers in profit warning hit territory then that was the last chance to bag 100p let alone my perceived next support below at the 90p area.

Yes, a bullish update. I have 100% complete faith in Serge; he's not a newly promoted CEO, nor inexperienced, he's just hit a trading bad patch - Japan! Not a warning of imminent total company demise, but a warning that things will be less than inspiring for this current financial year.

And I fully expect the old guy to do as he states and come up with the goods in the next year or two. Unless he's intent on copying the likes of Buffett or Murdoch and run at the helm into his 90's, his next step must be to prepare for retirement. He's had his back to the wall before and come out fighting to success and acclaim, and I expect the old warhorse to do the same here, and get the company in good shape which should be reflected in a well performing SP, before he'd even consider selling in an agreed takeover or stepping down for retirement and a replacement CEO.

I'm fully invested here and shouldn't be looking for a top-up. But a gift of sub 100p and I'd take the bait and lower my average. Might be one more chance for sub 100p before next summer; but I agree, that's now looking distinctly doubtful now.

In the meantime there's the truly excellent dividend maintained for night time comfort. Isn't the divi due on Nov 9th the highest ever paid out?

"Were you a trader/investor in 1997 velo? i wasnt until 2000"

Just a green-horn investor back then. Really, really green. I kept getting double-bubblers and doubling my money. easily. Loads a moneeeeey! Worst thing that could ever have happened to me. Bought a house a brand new sports car. Actually believed I could walk on water if I put my mind to it. Green, green, green! Comeuppance wasn't far off, in coming along to set me right. Lost everything; the house everything, including the girl :(

"i mean in general methodology terms. Has your ways adapted a lot?"

Adapted? I'm so far removed from back then David Attenborough would declare me a new species by comparison. LOL!

I concur with a statement by Warren Buffett's mate Charlie Munger, now 91 or 93 I think, when he said recently - You never stop learning. "I'm a better investor now then when I was 59" . Hee hee LOL! Love that!

-Similar goes for me too, but lower timespans. I'm embarrased with how I invested back then. Probably because I kept bailing out due to work/career demands.

I'd describe my full investing style these days as a: TF-TA-FCS

A Trend Follwing, TA-Fundamentalist, Contrarian Strategist. . There, that sounds reet grand.

But primarly a trend follower first and last. When the trend changes for VOD so will I and make my move, for an initial part buy.
Been in twice with VOD over the years. Never left with a loss but always with a much reduced profit than otherwise would have been the case had I heeded VOD's trend lines.

It's late now so - over and out.

Error:
" It was 1997 the year before what is generally reckoned to be the start of the last market crash" (I was thinking 2008/9 wasn't I?)

1997??? Got me stock market crashes mixed up
- 1997 ? That would be a few years before leading up to the dot.com crash; but so much for his uber confident: No More Boom and Bust times.

"major correction or recession, that didnt start at a record high? cant be many"

It's an historical fact that yes, all market crashes have occured at the height of roaring bull markets with bullish stockmarket highs the order of the day and glowing future company earnings forecast for the following year.

A guru finance professor (got his namne somewhere) with a huge following announced in interviews that the stock market had now reached a virtually permanent high and would never fall significantly ever again such was the strength of the economy, about 3 months before the 1929 crash.

Also., pesonally remember the actual last day I heard Gordon Brown as the then chancellor announce that there would be no more boom and bust economics under his watch. (he'd been stating it for 10 years and thought he'd nailed it) It was 1997 the year before what is generally reckoned to be the start of the last market crash.

Yes, I'm always fearful when a share price support area (but theIndices 200 day ma in this case) gets revisited TOO often. Market lore has it that 2 or 3 re-visits is okay but make a habit of it and ultimately it will get breeched (so I tempered my post by adding a get-out-of-jail-card with "temporary halt" :)

Jack, I'm saying this quiety and gently tonight - but am I taking things too far by viewing today's rejection of the US indices breeching their long term 200 day ma (except for the S&P) and further bouncing off their recent lows - as .... as.... as potentially the floor for this worldwide recent market retrace - until the next cycle commences at least?

Not a recovery, but a temporary halt to further deep dives?

Erratum:

"At tonight's close of 147 "

Oops - 146p of course!

The US markets after scaring the begeezus out of everybody today, re-touched the recent lows and decided against breaching past to further new lows - and came screaming back up by close.

I think here, FTSE in general will not continue retracing tomorrow - and already as I post US and FTSE futures are blue and rising. Now, can it hold and build until the open bell tomorrow? Don't know whether that's of any use to VOD holders and its battles, or even if I'm off piste with this assertion but I may have the little bounce and rejection of the recent Indices lows that I was expecting before the end of this week. I think possibly a blue day tomorrow. We'll see. Could have this all back to front, as it's been a stinking day for VOD. So hard to believe a blue day awaits tomorrow, Wednesday.

I think it's fair to say, the recent fall in VOD's SP is part combination it's own problems added to part of this worldwide market correction. Further retrace by indices appears to have been rejected tonight and I'm optimistic for tomorrow. Maybe any blue tomorrow will reflect a reduction in that portion of the market correction-only effect, leaving VOD with that portion which is of its own making, so any bounce tomorrow is not ring the church bells celebration day, just a breather.

If I end up with egg on my face tomorrow, just file this post under the header: Late night ramblings.
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PS. At tonight's close of 147 - that means the forward P/E ratio for VOD is no longer at a huge premium to its sector, no longer "expensive". It's more or less virtually at "fair value" - by P/E ratio standards. If you want it cheap then you need the SP much lower, but as it stands tonight it's neither cheap nor expensive, but as near as damn it, 'fair value' - IMO only.

Right final post for tonight and I'm done, just want to share my findings on the US markets close this evening and what it means for UK markets and BT in particular tomorrow.

The most important thing is that the deep retrace of US markets in their working day today, came rising back up quite considerably by the close, virtually ending as a normal day, a bit down on yesterday but some indices created 7 month records etc., for greatest one day low etc., etc., but all gone now - the indexes didn't have it in them to create new lows, and bounced back up.

Dodged a bullet there tonight methinks - and that's good news for us here in the UK tomorrow. Just checked the early futures and both FTSE and the DOW are off up and in blue, which if they hold on to/build on, until 8:00am tomorrow, bodes well for us.

Which also brings my initial assertion back into play and that is a couple of bad days this week - a final bounce off the recent lows (that happened today) then a nice rise away from quicksand city. So I'm optimistic going into Wednesday.

Could Wednesday be the bounce back day I was hoping to see before the end of the week? Looking like it could be.

Worst case scenario tomorrow?

No worse than 238/239p but if these overnight futures hold then BT stays in the 240's and with a fair wind hunts around for 242/243 and then it's game-back-on.

I'll tell ya' seeing how the US recovered is a weight off my mind - my portfolios have been shaken, rocked and rolled of late. You can't think straight when you're under fire, that's why you're supposed to have a plan before going into battle LOL!

So, to sum up - I'm bullish going into Wednesday, not only for BT but for FTSE in general - bounce back day ????

PS. BT is currently clear and ABOVE its 200 day long term moving average. Bet not many shares can say that in the current climate. It'll stay like that for BT unless low 230p's is breeched, so all to play for.

Hi Nigel,

Mere flesh wounds, that's all.

- Writing this on the fly so not fully thought out. I'm tooing and frooing with stuff happening as I post....

Wish my portfolio shares were only down that much. I'm surprised it's taken this long for BT to throw a couple of pennies into the collecting tin, when a lot of other shares have had to toss in their very souls with huge pull-backs.

Low 240's is still good. 230's and it's still in a decent uptrend. A lot of retracing from here needs to occur for the trend to reverse, but if that's to be, a wider martket correction is as likely a place as any.

Since early afternoon opening over there on the DOW - was shocked to see a ruddy great gap-down upon the DOW opening and it's so far continued dropping.. Ruddy hell! In fact - they've ALL (US markets) opened with a big gap-down. Something to do with Russia and Trump and breaking nuclear missile treatries maybe?

Whatever their markets have opened this afternoon in far, far, worse shape than ours did - but this current mess started over there, so see what 9pm close our time shows for their markets close tonight - and that will be the lead for tomorrow most likely.

They cough - we sneeze over here and all that, looks a bit iffy on the world's markets, not a good sign for tomorrow is it? - but anyway, to date, all they've winkled so far out of BT is approx 6p !

Jusy hope the market is not morphing like a virus, and now coming after value stocks next (gulp!)

For the moment I'll hold to my assertion that this week to look bad for a couple of days then an easing up by the end of the week. If the big USA index's break past their long term 200 moving average, then my assertion about this week is toast.That's what they're doing right now - testing their long term average.

Wed tomorrow - running out of day's left then, aren't I? Oh well, whatever.

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PS. Was checking the VIX index and it too has shot back up to Danger-Will-Robinson levels, that's when I took a peek at the DOW and others - and sure enough they're selling heavily right now.

PPS . Yep, DOW, S&P500 & Nasdaq have all breeched their long tern biggie - the 200 day average. Not good at all. They need to get back above it pronto! The longer they delay and it'll become an official bear market, just a correction at the moment. Worrrying. VERY.

Will see what the the TV finance channels are saying about their markets later. Going to give them closer to 9pm our time before tuning in, in case the news is even worse by then.

Hi Nige,

M

It's looking likely that 100p may well be tested again. Last time it held firm. In recent months have come to the conclusion that a sub 100p SP and I'll be looking for as likely a floor as near possible for a top-up buy and lower my average holding SP.

I've settled on 90p-ish area as being a strong looking floor so will be tempted if the SP should fall to that area - but letting the trend finally decide for me, should indications be it's not stopping there.

I've decided in advance, because to get sub 100p and with a market correction going on in the background, nerves become fraught, making it difficult to buy precieved bargains lest it continue tanking.

I've been seriously impresed by how PHTM has held the 120's ground for so long with it being a profit-warning-hit share and all. Going sub 100 is what I expected all along, but when it held 120's month after month - I was impressed. Only now with a worldwide market correction currently making itself felt is sub 100p likely to give way.

Question is: will I abide by my pre-made decision - or will I bottle it at the last moment, citing catching faling knife syndrome as defence against action?

Was watching another profit hit share and decided that if it fell near 100p I'd buy. Well last week that share fell from 130's to 100p - and I bottled it. It's now circa 125p - a straight 25% gain on it's own. It's one thing making a decision in advance like pilots training for any emergency - quite another to carry that action out when all around you the market is falling like there's no tomorrow.

Where's Warren Buffett and buy when others are fearful advice, when you need him LOL?

"Now we're in deep trouble as there's no obvious support in sight"

- Oh there is, pretty sure 140p-ish is one - several more beneath that, (was looking this morning - Aww hope no one makes me go back and re-dig them out)

The question is - which will turn out to be in the vicinity of the floor - an obvious strong looking area or an unexpected weaker-looking one?

VOD is beinh hit with a double whammy - it was 'tsanking before the markets strting black-holing inward, and markets downtrending is a bad place tyo be for a share already in a bit of trouble. But anyway, at least the PE ratio is now not over valued - it's fairly roced around here. Anything below this poiunt is a bargain - above the high 140's the PE ratio was above the market average.

Net profit for the next 2 years are indeed truly commendable and truly excellent increases over the year just finished in March. . . . . . . . . . So why the big SP retrace?

Wouldn't advise putting all your trust in FCF if you're then just sitting back arms folded thinking job done that problen will go away now. It won't. Yes it will tide you over a rough spot for a couple of years or so - as long as you're working on curing the "rough spot".

The next 2 years as well as showing excellent increasing net profit also show deplorable dividend cover ie., getting worse! So no forward care planned to working on that rough spot. (So adding to debt management issues over the next 2 years) For an accountant that looks like pure poor housekeeping.

Not terminal, but it's like a car mechanic saying you don't need an oil change this year, it'll hold until the next service. Which it will. But how many times can youcumulatively pull that trick before the unchanged oil cause catastrophic problems in the engine later on? A good houskeeping mechanic would insist on regular maintenance.

Likewise a good housekeeping accountant would not turn a blind eye to a worsening finacial metric but offer remedies but in the meantime like the foregoing abandoned oil change say but this year FCF will keep you out of trouble.

Like a car with unchanged oil how many years can you keep on ignoring a worsening dividend cover that can not be fully paid from the company's entire year's earnings?

RDSB got around this very conndrum to keep their 70+ year div paying record intact by ceasing to pay cash dividends and instead issued "scrip dividends" so holders got increased shares - but no cash in the hand. Think RDSB cancelled that programme the other year and got back to issuing cash after they got over the 'rough spot' of low oil prices. (Any long term RDSB holders on here might throw some light on those years of scrip issue shares instead of cash).

N

Not fully up to speed with dates of CEO replacements but as I understand it, Nick Read officially took over in this month October, right?

With the outgoing Vitto make-you-an-offer-you-can't-refuse Corleone only physically leaving the premises at the same time, October; ie., this month?

Hmm. if so then that doesn't fit with the tradditional kitchen-sinking review - that normally comes after approx 3 months at the helm - and it's ALWAYS a "manufactured" profit warning review - so that a year later the new guy can perform the Lazarous like, look-how-I-saved-the-company, look-how-well-the-share-price-has-recovered-today-one-year-later-from-when-I-took-over".

Unless that is, he's been undertaking that review since May of this year and has been the real CEO in all but name in that time, in which case this will be a joint profit warning trading update/ and joint future review in which he throws every questionable baggage overboard to make a "clean start". Either way, if holders escape a profit warning update on Nov 13th they can half expect one come circa 3 months later.

Best course of action? Get it over with now, on Nov 13th.

Dj @ "Come on Read. Cat got your tongue."

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Don't think he can 'legally" issue reassuring missives to shareholders at the moment as pretty sure he and the BOD are in a 'closed period' where they can neither buy nor sell shares, nor issue statments that could be construed as 'insider information' for the simple reason that the half year results concluded at the end of September, and they're busy finalising them now - and issuing a public RNS half year statement trading update to the market on Tuesday, 13th November.

What's that 3 weeks away? It is then you will here Read speak and unlikely before then.

If you think the ii's have been leaving in droves then that implies they know something we private investors don't.
If you are of a mind that "they" always do know before we lowly PI's get told anything then expect some form of profit warning in the update. Whatever - your Mr Read will be speaking to you in approx 3 weeks or so.

- Just checked - constant directors share transactyions almost daily up until Sept 18th. Then it stopped dead. Not a sound since then. They can't they are forbidden to get involved in share transactions in the closed period - until Nov 13th.

Going to attempt a more succinct and a relatively shorter post :) :)

I've got worrisome mixed views of the markets over the 'next few months' - trends for FTSE & DOW et al, are still pointing down for further trouble (but I won't expand on that here) but a not so worrisome view of the market this week (think it will be bad for a day or two before a little 'pull back' before the week is out) then back to worrying about the 'next few months', after all this is the longest running bull market in stock market history since records began.

First off - Most investors must surely must have noticed (if they have a sizeable portfolio or watch lists) that the vast majority of shares have had their teeth kicked in over the past few weeks as the markets worldwide have trended south - yet, unbelievably - it's all been water off a duck's back to BT.

BT has been a safe harbour whilst the markets in general have been in turmoil. BT is good value (in fact seriously undervalued) sentiment is definitely bullish and because it's in no way, shape or form either overvalued under any metric, ratio, or category, there was no need for the market to attack it during this wider market downtrend, as if it was some over bloated hot-shot stock. Plenty of examples everywhere of shares that were flying high that have had the rug pulled from under their feet this past few weeks - but not BT!

So on that current evidence, I don't think bullish sentiment towards BT has weakened, and I don't expect anything too untoward regarding the SP in the near future. Any pull-back should be bearable unlike what's occurring right now to other shares in general.

The past fortnight or so I've made a little bit of profit spread betting short against the FTSE. I hurriedly closed my positions on Friday evening not trusting the break over the weekend. But what's astonished me is I needn't have worried. I could have left my positions open and running and made even more profit as FTSE simply refuses to come off the floor. (Trends remained bearish throughout so don't know why I should say 'astonished' :)

However, I believe that will abate soon - it's the 'next few months' after, that does have me seriously concerned. But I need that temporary recovery first. Don't want to be drawn on the 'next few months' until the FTSE (and over there in the US) levels off a bit first. If the markets keep tanking from here non-stop then what I'm worrying about over the next few months is likely to be misguided/ or postponed - and it would be back to the drawing board. Whatever the markets over the coming months, there is nothing yet showing it's face to indicate BT will get severely punished.

I posted in August of holding off adding to my initial re-entry into GNK by posting of waiting until after September for a further cheap top-up.
And just in case, I left a 450p limit order running in the background on a you-never-know basis. Well I think that opportunity may commence to make an effort to show its face this week.

September only provided similar opportunity to some of the near-August XD lows to top-up, but unconcerned at not taking the low of August as I reckon I have until Dec 1st - as I'm expecting GNK to fly in December, but not expecting anything worthwhile for the SP (in bullish terms) during the remainder of October or November.

And if it doesn't , no matter as I won't have complete faith in GNK until high summer of next year. Whatever, want a cheeky low before Dec 1st. I think I'll get it this week.

(Still haven't received my vouchers; latest 'promise' is by tomorrow's mail post).