Member Info for Velo

Oops TL covered my ppint a minute before I posted. Virtually a double post by me :) :)

PS. The initial small slightly bearish action by the SP this v early time in the morning is I feel, absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the market's reaction to the new appointment - but more to do with the disaster yesterday over in the US markets; a bit of contagion spreading here. And also a little tiny bit of bad taste felt by the market towards the insiders who moved the price on information only available to them alone. It's not keen to be seen rewarding cheats. And maybe a bit of cashing in by those insiders fearing of that worldwide market pull back gaining momentum. Currently the price is 'great looking'. Avoid an "anchoring" outlook if the day sours somewhat.

Not even 9:00am yet so nothing means nothing at this moment.

So, there it is, the confirmation announcement nicely slotted in before the end of October (always felt I'd read somewhere it would be by October but couldn't lay my hands on it).

Yesterday's leader board success by BT's one-day mega rise will be overlooked in the euphoria that erurupts today but a v quick point before Wed's price action passes into history.

There's a lesson there for all of us who are private investors.

- No matter the ethics, no matter the quality and held in respect, no matter how iconic the company is regarded - the elite, the insiders, the dark pools, always get first dibs to move their money ahead of us mere mortal, lowly PI's and profit at our expense.

Wednesday's price behaviour now makes perfect sense.
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This is stage two of the new CEO process. Two more to come IMO. I intend personally profiting after the very public stage four. Stage four is where the new CEO slits holders throats from ear to ear.

Right this just for any late night owls with no access to live futures prices etc.,

Just checked and volatilty is the name of the game - from red the US futures have all turned blue and are up.

Yaayy???

No, because.....

Now the bad news, from showing our FTSE up in blue earlier - the futures have now turned red and are down.
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Ha the market gives with one hand and takes with the other. Now it really is time to switch off .....Zzzzzzzzzz

Sheer utter terrible mess in the US markets by their close today, only just finding out. God knows if the contagian will spread across here in the morning.

Jack thanks for the heads-up on the US markets - been busy tonight so haven't been looking oiver there. Just brought the lot up on my charts - yep, you're bang on; looks like 25,000 has bit the dust good and propa on the DOW.

Loggng off and see if I can catch anything on the finance channels - it was red when I last looked late afternoon our time but in control. So your post is a welcome prod for me to go check up.

Bugger!!!!!

PS. Just checked the futures and at near 11pm our time all looks in control over their- red again yes, but just a bit.
Oh well - see what tomorrow brings here in the UK.

Mish - brokers, analysts, hedge funds, et al. Again I'm referring to stats not my own opinion. Research has been carried out that shows they all perform very poorly at forecasting future SP behaviour.

In fact they perform little differently to the average PI (ie., Woodford anybody?) They're great for the latest 'news' and developments. But stop reading when they come to a buy/sell recommendations - they can't perform that feat with gresater accuracy than anyone else.

Otherwise if they could, we'd all be queing oiutside the bank for a massive business loan with a great business idea no one in the world has ever thought of before.

- Oh say's the bank manager and what is it?

Easy we all reply - I'm going to buy the Investor's Chronicle every week and buy every single buy recommendation they publish. How can I fail? Everyone knows the journos on finace media publications know their stuff because we buy their mags all the time - it's my get rich quick scheme.

And it'll work asks the bank manager?

Tsk! I reply it's got to - they're Investor's Chronicle analysts! It's obvious they know in advance which share is going to perform the best isn't?

Mrd @ "Bear market will last 9 months max this time."

- You've touched on a subject I'm attempting to factor in for the current conditions on the US indices.

That's why I was rabbiting on about a possible floor of the US indices last night - it forms part of my thinking on that subject.

9 months - is from an historical point of view, factually incorrect - on an historical basis.

Up until this record breaking bull run, the stats show the average life expectancy of a bull market came out at 5 to 6 years max (US data) - followed by a bear market - are you ready for this next bit?

The average bear market only lasts one and a half years - that's all. Those are stats of historical records - not my opinion. So gotta disagree with your 9 month estimation.

Also the longer the bull market - always the deeper the bear market. Currently we're experiencng the world's longest ever recorded bull market. Scary though for when the next bear market gets underway, eh?

Jack - yeah LOL! I like the Rorke's Drift inclusion - but I'm keeping the Spartans no matter what :)

I start with how a company compares to its peers. Is it deserving of a premium rating over the mere plebs of its sector, or does it face serious rivalry? If no rilvary, and it is superior to its rivals then its desrving of a higher Price to Earnings ratio than all others in its sector.

It was and has been, superior rated to the others until several weeks ago. Now at tonight's close it's barely 1 point above the sector average - the forward P/E ratio for the sector average is P/E14.0

VOD now has a forward P/E ratio of P/E15.1 - that's a huge reduction from several weeks ago.

I regard that as fair value. NOT UNDEVALUED BUT FAIR.
If you believe VOD is entitled to lord and master it over all others in its sector with greater expectations for the future then the market will recognise that and reward it with a higher valuation. All is possible from this now "fair valuation point".

Doesn't mean it's going to be dropped screaming in pain to its knees by the market. Maybe the market is re-rating it to just mere 'average'. As if saying now prove to us in your next set of results you are worthy of a higher valuation.

"This stock is severely undervalued"

"severely"? Nah, it's closer to fair value, maybe a little oversold currently but undervalued? Nah, no way.

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"This is going to go up within the next days or weeks."

.

Might - might not, who's going to disagree?

I think tomorrow might turn out fine, but might not. That's my opinion.
You're equally entitled to your 'going up' opinion

- but not the undervalued opinion - that's factually incorrect.
If you stand by it you'll have to prove it wth facts and figures.

Continue to say it if you like, I won't say no more - but I don't agree with that.

Been checking tonight and I'd like to revise 140p as a possible support area. Yes it is, no question - but I reckon nowhere near as super-strong as just proud of v low 130's (ie.,131-133p). I just haven't paid it proper homage. It's titanium strength. I've inspected it, knocked on it's 4 metre thick metal walls.

If THAT were to fail then it's all over. I don't think it will come to that; there's rows and rows of hundreds of squads of 300 Spartan defenders each, lined up 100 yards apart in front of that support, backed up by hordes of mauradering Vikings behind them. Back behind them is the whole Apache Warrior Indian nation, and up on the hill overlooking the 130p battlefield are endless amounts of King Henry's Agincourt long bow archers who as records say "turned the sky black as night such was the amount of arrows in flight raining down".

150 is a very, very, messy support, so is 140 - but 130 is beautiful to look at, clean and uber, uber, strong.

Did I mention that behind the archers is the biggest battalion of Centurion tanks you've ever seen, too?
I'm THAT certain of 130 holding and seeing off all boarders. There's a ground-shaking alpine bass horn high up on the hill near the archers, the kind that is long with one end resting on the ground with a deep reverberating, pulsating Hollywood voice-over booming through, rhythmically declaring: NONE SHALL PASS! NONE SHALL PASS!

If 130p should fail just bury me at sea in a burning Viking boat as it sails off into the sunset to Valhalla.

But it won't be needed - let loose the dogs of war and let the ultimate battle commence! 130p forever!

Anyone who thinks 130p is going down should try come and take it - if they think they're hard enough!
First you've got to try and get there! That's the easy part - Trying to get there. Ha!

It looks like most have written off the 150p area - but it's still exerting a gravitational pull. I don't think tomorrow will be as bad some here tonight are fearing.

Update on the September vouchers. Received mine today Oct 24th - so all September's out of date. Not a concern. But geezus! What a fight to get them.

Was informed they were arguing with inland revenue that as my shares are in a SIPP anything withdrawn is subject to taxation. But in the end the vouchers were allowed free of that threat. I just reckon they forgot about me and went round the office asking who's got a complete unused book? - And whipped it out of their hands and shoved a tenner in their face to shut them up. If you haven't had yours I bet that's where they are - dished out to backroom staff as freebies LOL!

LSE site unobtainable - perhaps that's why so few posts. You can access it though by mobile phone only. Which is what I'm doing for this post. But you'll be fighting auto correct tooth and c'r'aw (LOL!)

Can't believe tonight's close! from 240p the previous day to close tonight @ 250p in one day! (It's even been visible on the FTSE leader boards - helpfully highlighted by some on here).

So what's going on? Beats me! Speak up if you have an idea why. All I can think of is a week tomorrow an expected decent H1 trading update is expected, coupled with media speculation that a new CEO appointment may be announced at the same time. If I wasn't already aware of that, then I'd slap my forehead and say - Brilliant! THAT'S the reason!

Just one thing though; after retracing for two days down to 240p yesterday, that news was exactly the same then as today, and it didn't prevent the SP racing down to 240p - so why today has the same "news" sent it racing up to close at 250p?
Yes, I know I was going on about expecting the Indices to give some hint that they've floored and so expect decent performance to the end of the week, but to increase by THAT much in ONE day - without any apparent 'new' news? I'm flummoxed - you tell me.

Ordinarily after such a performance I'd be happy to unveil my opinion of potential spectacular SP expectations for tomorrow Thursday, but I'm so suspicious I don't want to post of raising false hopes. If it was up for yet another 3 jumps of resistance as it's done so today, you just wouldn't believe me if I posted of what I was looking at in front of me. So I won't. Instead I'll go for the safer option which is to say the obvious and if the SP is set on continuing bullish them most likely it'll close tomorrow somewhere in the 250's. (ie., 254-258p)

I don't trust this one day high - but every indicator known to mankind is swallowing this rise wholesale and has gone off the Richter scale in happiness; so old sour face here is on his own.

Anyone got any inkling what's going on? Have insider sources actually heard on the grapevine of the completed H1 trading update figures and bought? Or more likely found out today who has been selected and accepted the top job and bought on the expected market reaction??

I just don't know. Over to you. Everything to date is known. But there's a known-unknown out there known by some that's being withheld from PI's. A positive one, luckily.

Past 5 years monthly cyclical records. I know GNK is not a cyclical share but average over last 5 years is high probability of a repeat performance if the "Santa Rally" makes it's annual show.

75% probability of average 5% gain for GNK over December. Yes, it could bomb instead. That's the usual when I post expectations. When I keep things to myself events happen as looked likely. Mention them on a BB and karma or whatever skewers expectations. Lol!

Yes, not just the Nasdaq, strength draining from remaining US markets also. Bullish world markets blue on our opening this morning now a mixed bag.

BT still sticking two fingers up to the world - strength ahead of next week Nov 1st where a decent trading update is expected from BT - AND potentially announcement of new CEO.

Somone posted BT was in top spot on highest riser FTSE 100 boards today. Checked and it had dropped to 2nd highest. Now it's dropped off altogether.Whatever, been some serious trading on BT today.

...all blue today, both futures (for those yet to open) and those open - all blue. Was musing late last night on here that expecting an Indices bounce off the recent lows and long term averages before the week closes, looks like it's underway, but wouldn't care to time-stamp it. Anyway BT has gone crazy, up from closing on 240 last night and hitting 251 some minutes ago. Inexplicable - but not if the world's markets have gone happy-clappy blue today.

That being the case - where's your cut of the spoils? A penny up on last night's close is a bit mean when they've put BT on ecstacy drugs today. (I'm expecting BT to trim back its sails sensibly by close).

Geezus, site took a few mins to uplosad my post and looks for how many spelling mistakes I've done and nearly fell off me chair on seeing 251p up above. That's nuts! That's THREE resistance levels jumped over and it's only just past lunch time.

I'm phoning the authorities - somebody's drugged and spiked BT's drink with one of those ecstacy disco drugs !

Was thinking whoa there, not fully sure above 249p can be held today.

But just checked up on the rest of the world, a mixture of futures for yet to open markets and those already trading and all world Indices - and ALL have bounced off the bottom of their recent floors today. The world (not just the UK) is blue today, all over the place.

So maybe that current 249p might be the worldwide sentiment push today. Here's why I first thought whoa! upon seeing 249.

Last night I posted of 242/243 if all good and 238/239 if 240's give up the ghost. To get from last night's 240 close to 243 is a big ask.

246 would mean jumping over not one, but two resistance levels - and we haven't even seen the Nov 1st trading update.

I would never dream of hinting at 249 as a possibility close for today (without news of some sort) as 249 is the third resistance level for today!

So I absolutely, firmly believe, no progress beyond 249 today is possible nor reasonable - and expect BT to close anywhere in the range 243 to that 249.

Not happy seeing it close on 249 if it did close on that. Don't mind it shaking hands intraday as it's doing right now (stop showing off there SP Heel boy! Heel!) and closing in a more esaily holdable position a bit lower - for today. But spikey as hell if it does!

But there you go - the entire world's markets have gone happy-clappy today and if they say 249 then who am little ol' me to argue against them? So got me wish for an Indices bounce before the end of the week, so that's good - for all of us.