Member Info for Velo

"Feel battered and bruised. They say nov and dec in midterms years is 80% positive in the last 50 yrs lets see"

Okay, Here you are then Mrd, something to potentially cheer you up seeing as you're into cyclical events. :)

VOD is not a cyclical share like say a garden products manufacturer but what I've got is the monthly cyclical SP performances of VOD for each month over the past 5 years. Sometimes hits the mark now and then - but best regarded as for pure fun only.

Both September and October and including August just gone (3 then) are statisticaly negative minus SP growth months for VOD - been true this year so far ha!

What about November coming up next week then?

Well, over the past 5 years November has shown an aggregated 75% probability of a 3% SP gain from Nov 1st to the 30th for the whole month.

Not a lot; and only for fun mind you, but consider 146.6p tonight x 3% = almost 150p You want that, don't you?

THERE do you feel better now? No refunds. No guarantees.:) But statistically verified 75% probabilty of occuring again this November.

Well, the question you gotta ask yourself is, do I feel lucky? Well do you? Those are good odds :)

That's right Herbie it's called "kitchen-sinking" and it's stage 4 in the process. Let's run through them.

Stage 1)
An unpopular CEO is fired. Just the news slowly gets the SP underway rising - the uptrend from 201p to this week has been Stage 1 for BT

Stage 2)
Is what Pacey was referring to below. Just the mere notification name of a chosen replacement being selected starts another price rise. You could promote the office cat Tibbles - and that would still be enough - just name someone, anyone.

Stage 3)
Is the day the new CEO actually takes over officially as CEO, and sets off the final rise.

Stage 4)
Is where you buy in cheap because exactly what you say happens - the actual kitchen sinking review (check out what's just happened to RMG Royal Mail - from £6 to £3 - odd).

Half the problems are overplayed to the gallery exaggeration the other half is the truth. The SP either goes up with the market saying about time or sinks as the dividend gets cut. Can take about a year to recover, (sometimes)

I plan to buy in at stage 4. Be like picking up free £5 notes.

But the trick is, is to judge when the new CEO reveals his review. Can't decide if the new CEO of VOD is including a "review" on Nov 14th or just the trading update, leaving it for another 3 months now the extended stay of the old CEO has pushed off this month. Just keep an eye on VOD from after the 14th November.

"Velo it was a inverted dow moji means 165 target in nov."

You've got me there Mrd. I was referring to single candlestick. Never heard of such a thing. Is it something of your own design or some combo candlestick pattern or another TA technique?

Never heard of an inverted dow moji. Is it a typo - by moji did you mean a Doji? If so,it wasn't a Doji - That close is not a bullish signal on it's own. It would have to have closed higher, clearly exceeding the open of that previous day's red candle to become a combination pattern of a Bullish Engulfing - that would defo be a bullish signal but it was too short in height to comply.

I'm just not on the same page as you Mrd - you'll have to explain further.

A Dow???

I like the shape of the price action close. I think with a fair wind from background markets the SP could put on a good show tomorrow. Wouldn't draw any conclusions from that one blue day, but just look at the price action today. It opened way below Wedensday's close (not good) so a small gap - and then proceeded to drop even lower (argghh) right to 9:30am.

But from then on it climbed away and never re-visited that day's low.

It flucated looking like bad news again by early afternoon, but the bulls heaved it back up, freed from the grasp of the chasing bears up all the way and into close. A v nice rise into the close. Just look at the tail on it (yes I'm talking about candlesticks; sorry) it left a long tail to the bottom indicating the bulls overpowered the bears and from opening down this morning it not only managed to haul itself back up it the start point but just by a smidgen closed a little bit higher than the previous daty's close. So a decent Blue win for the day.

A well behaved day from the market and Indices tomorrow and it's a reasonable expectation to expect another blue day.

150 support vicinity area, is not giving up without a fight it would appear. It may not of course, but I reckon it's in with a decent chance tomorrow.

Long/medium/& short term trends are no way near changing, so small steps as they say.

Pacey @ "...On a 'normal' day a new CEO would have caused a rise, assuming he was worthy..."

Absolutely. No question. That's been my personal observations my entire investing life too. Not an opinion but actual observational truths.

Summary:

Overall it's favouring a bearish day tomorrow, so to save the SP - stay above 242p by close, but with that much volume about everything goes out the window. Everything.

What do you think?

Oh - All IMO only of course, just my personal opinions.

It's worth repeating NC00's point that tonight the uptrend that's been in place since the 201 floor even as of tonight remains intact. I always allow the trend the last word. Just remember that before you read any further - the uptrend is intact. It can afford a bit of downtrending now and then, and not collapse.

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Well I knew before I started this review it was going to be crazy time but wasn't prepared for what the computer threw back at me. My thoughts upon seeing results were - that's ridiculous - never seen anything like it. So re-did everything. Same results. Sheesh where to start?

I know, volume!
Do you remember my post from last night I think, recording that crazy Wednesday was MORE than double the normal long term volume?
Well the SP was well down today so what would be your thinking be on volume today, before I post any further?

Clue: The SP pulled-back just as far and just as dramatically today, as it went up yesterday - and yesterday took more than double the normal volume to achieve that!

Answer: Even though it's closed way down it's yet another day of near identical more-than-double-the-average long term volume of transactions in BT - but obviously in the opposite direction. One volume blue. One volume red.

If it was your money would you spend a fortune chasing the price up on Wednesday because you heard something about a new business deal with BT only to spend just as much undoing what you did yesterday because you didn't like the sound of the name of the new CEO? Who invests like that? What's really, really, going on?

This is where it gets messy now. Want some out of this world numbers because I've never seen anything like it.
Two prices. One bearish, one bullish.

If it's another day of hopping over three pivot point levels as on Wednesday and bearing in mind that crazy, powerful volume showing up yet again today, what would those prices be for tomorrow if this game of volatility continues?

Bad news first: The absolute worst nightmare that's on the cards as a possibility if that amount of volume turns yet again is as far down as ...... 209p!

I know stoopid.

But wait, and the opposite bullish? ....... 275p!

Those are the extremes. Both unlikely. BUT extreme happened on Wednesday, so not 'impossible'. Here from the same family, are the do's and don'ts.
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Today closed indicating a bearish day tomorrow so the SP must not close on or below or near the vicinity of 233p, nor indeed anything below 241p or it will likely continue down next week.

If it's a bullish day then the SP needs to close on or as near to as possible to 249p

Last chance saloon card for the uptrend to escape and continue next week? Try to close between 242p - and the closer the better to 249p if possible.

Summary:

Overall it's favouring a bearish day tomorrow, so to save the SP - stay above 242p by close, but with that much volume about everything goes out the window. Eve

Just come back looking roughly now Nige, Crikey Friday tomorrow already. Losing track here. I'll just whistle down the tube for an engine room damage report from Scotty.

Well FTSE ended higher by close but is sinking into the red in the futures at the moment. Would have preferred a better background but work with what you've got as they say.

I think this could be the most trickiest one ever. There are forces pulling in all directions. That big retrace today should not have happened. So whatever caused it - will false-positive the hell out of indicators I'm sure.

It might have kept nicely in at 240 but events have changed polarity and that 240p close is now a bad sign as it represents a close below a bearish support - in other words sellers pushed it past a no-go area.

Don't think I've seen that in many a week here (or month or so).

And that intraday low of 234 is gonna cause a lot of trouble before I even pump it in. Need a cuppa and a rest before looking into this mess - be back later with bullish targets and if it's to be bearish again no-go areas not to step over.

Think as things stand the SP may have gone off-grid and turned rogue - Put a call in for Jason Bourne!
But will be back with as clearer picture later.

It occurs to me that most of my posts may appear bearish towards VOD. True I've only posted on the downside risks, but examining the trading, profit & loss acc's, I've always been aware of the many positives there as well as the negatives, but have not commented on them due to, as I see it, the overwhelming pressure of the negatives on display v the year to date downtrend.

If time, and only if no one has done so, I'll try and post a fuller picture of the true standing of VOD - obviously as I interpret it, as another man's even-handed appraisal is another's blatant bias. I use ratio's throughout to compare as saying a metric is £xxxx amount of billions is a meaningless standalone to me unless it's compared to what the market regards as a successful metric. A deeper analysis will also help me with the 'fuller picture', as normally I concentrate on trends to the exclusion of all else.

It'll be an easy read but might take several pages so will find a way to keep it 'petite' and post on the weekend maybe if time, out of the way.

Before that also want to dash off a post on analysing Nick Read as he unwittingly gives away more than he realises in that link posted today. Snake oil salesman I called him on skinmming through on first read, will see if a fuller read-through changes that perception of mine. Hopefully get that one out of the way beforehand.

Ha ha! That's made laugh Avro.

- There'd be so few left what with 13,000 redundant - shareholders would have to be be pulled in to drive the vans and stuff LOL!

Yes, never been impressed with DuPlessis - he just hasn't appeared to live up to his reputation that made his name - s'pose he just got old, that's all.

I defo did not like the panic stricken sacking of Gavpants - thus forcing him to give GP 12 months notice instead of controlling events so that after being handed his P45, GP would've been gone in say 3 months.

Bugger rumours leaking out if it was handled in a measured and considered way - it would only have served to sharpen up GP's act - at worse. The rumours came out anyway, regardless.

This old piece from June Telegraph:

"....BT was forced to defend the 50-year-old (GP) from a new round of public criticism by major shareholders, chairman Jan du Plessis called time on an era that has.................Mr du Plessis said he felt forced to act after last month’s strategy overhaul failed to lift the shares. There was nothing wrong with the plans, he added, but the muted reaction indicated a lack of faith in Mr Patterson to deliver it..............The chairman said: “I don’t think I have picked up a single comment form a shareholder or sell-side analyst questioning the wisdom of the strategy. The revised strategy that Gavin announced is endorsed by everybody, “But the truth is many people questioned if we had the right guy to deliver. That is the harsh reality. I got the sense it was time for a change.”

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Geezaloo. What - you had no idea and weren't shifting off your butt with making plans behind the scenes but waited until a near-mutiny errupted then with the BOD's approval just waded in? Why not acknowledge their concerns and promise action and thus control events to your tune?

This is a major, iconic, company and Du Plessis messed about as if it was a day nursery staff replacement.

".....It looks like most have written off the 150p area - but it's still exerting a gravitational pull. I don't think tomorrow will be as bad some here tonight are fearing."

Well I don't think today has been dissapointing for VOD at all. It's within spiiting distance of last's night's close (near 4pm live price).

Maybe, maybe, those who think the floor is nigh will be called to the podium soon :)

(Continues)...........

However, I've found time and time again using the P/E version of calculation so reliable and so simple I always run to it first - and the P/E ratio for valuing VOD reveals the SP is still not under valued using that method. It's fair value at this SP level.
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By the way, here's a cheerful and fun, colourful quick link to use as a quickie second opinion, a free site that will value any share in the world for free (instantaneously) and tell you if it's undervalued or not, using their future cash flow method. You just enter the share name

Google: Simply Wall Street
(you get 14 free goes, per cycle ) (Scroll down until you get the big green and yellow slabs of colour to see under/over valued)

It's handy.

You'll get an undervalued rating there for VOD alright - as it says 1.46 IS UNDERVALUED !

- but you won't like one bit what it tells you is a fair valuation - it says that fair value for VOD is 1.98

Well look on the bright side - it least that's a greater amount than my "This current price area is fair value now" LOL!

Jackdawson @ "Nuri, I agree. We've been saying it's oversold (so undervalued) for ages & still it goes down...."

Hi Jack,

Thanks for the compliment (somewhere down at the foot of the posts).

Should really leave this post to evening rather than in the trading day as it's a side issue rather than pertinent. I don't disagree with your or Nuri's right, to opine that you feel VOD is "undervalued" but I must once again raise the point that there is a distinct difference between the two breeds that are oversold and undervalued - one is not automatically implied by the other, that's all I'm pointing out here - one does not beget the other. Apologies if this post comes over nit-picky.

I've made money several times on buying a low-priced oversold share and sold when it reached a higher priced overbought condition. It didn't become overvalued just because the SP then entered overbought condition.
So, likewise, overbought does not imply that it is also automatically overvalued.

- Oversold and overbought conditions are distinct technical conditions that all shares will enter into from time to time - regularly. BUT undervalued and overvalued situations are financial fundamental measurements and totally unrelated to technically o/sold and o/bought conditions.

So that's why I pointed out to the other poster, and now you, that I respectfully disagree with both your opinions that VOD is undervalued - just because it's oversold. You are both correct about VOD being oversold currently though
VOD has entered in and out of oversold multiple times now for the year to date - and is doing so more than in recent years. But it's a momentum measurement and that's why when the SP slowed and parked up at 151/154p the momentum slowed and the SP rose slightly to come out of oversold.

Right now the SP has re-entered back into oversold condition - relatively, that is within the downtrend. But it is in fundamental terms most definitely not undervalued IMO. However I have no issue with those who wish to describe VOD as undervalued if it's in the remit of a general emotive gut feel for the situation.

I've valued VOD by a method I've found simple and easy. I can list up the results of several or more other more complicated methods if interested, with wildly different outcomes based on asset valuation, discounted cash flow methods etc, etc., even a method devised by the great Ben Graham of yesteryear - they're all different; and all with massively differing outcomes.

However, I've found time and time again using the P/E version of calculation is so reliable and so simple I always run to it first - and the P/E ratio for valuing VOD reveals the SP is still not undervalued using that method. It's fair value at this SP level.
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By the way, here's a cheerful and fun, colourful quick link to use as a quickie second opinion, (continues)...

P'S. Remember all through this recent worldwide market retrace many and myself were posting how strong the SP was in bucking the trend and we all offered opinions on the strong sentiment refusing to let BT sink with the others. Then late in the game - out of nowhere the price starts slipping. Not a lot. Not a worry but all of a sudden noticeable. Now it was even cheaper. Then yesterday it rose so much it pushed all aside to smash through the FTSE 100 leader board to the top rungs if the day. Today all that evaporated.

And they used to say that everything is known and the market is efficient. When was the market efficient in BT? The low of Tuesday or the high of Yesterday or the lows of today?

Just occurred to me to check the volume for Wednesday. And volume was up hugely! Up more than double the long term average!!!

From that one can conclude two things:

1)
It wasn't due to any MM manipulation.

2)
It was market driven; so someone shifting LARGE transactions of BT stock yesterday.

If they do investigate it's just a matter of following up on repeated similar high quantities of stock of similar unusually large amounts as there was only one day to pull this off.

The danger is that if the market in general thinks like this it could damage sentiment towards BT; it could be less forgiving in the future. If the hitherto strong sentiment evaporates due to this lost trust, then most definitely complaints should be lodged with the appropriate authorities and emails sent to Du Plessis who could initiate those FCA proceedures.

On the day a new CEO is announced to replace an outgoing unpopular CEO and the price drops that's one unusual thing.

But if hitherto favourable market sentiment is lost as well, that's quite another and criminal proceedings should be encouraged to take place.

Whatever I suspect DuPlessy and the board are spitting rivets this moment at having their "wonderful" moment spoiled. Many shares are rising today despite a red FTSE this morning.

Frigging auto correct grammar! Accidentally fat thumbed it before finishing correcting.

Stalwart - Technically you still hold at a bargain price. The forward SECTOR average Price to earnings ratio for PFG is a lowish P/E 8.21

That's damned low and hard for the average stock on the market's to beat. Yet at this pricethe forward P/E ratio for PFG comes in at P/E 7.8

You paying approx 50p more still keeps your holding in cheap to at worst fair value. You've done well. But if you are lamenting being unable to take advantage of these even lower prices the answers quite simple. Break your budgeted holding fir buying a share into tranches say 3 or 4 part-buys per share - abd hey presto you only have to buy in the vicinity if the perceived floor and nit second guess the ultimate floor.

Insider market manipulation on Wednesday Pacey (could even be an investigation if someone complains).

Ignor the Infalamatory "stage 4" remark by me below that's for 3 months after the new CEO is officially signed in - and he's not showing up until January, so relax about the jokey S4 remark. Price is still good - don't worry.

Insider market manipulation on Wednesday Pacey (could even be an investigation if someone complains).

Ignor the Infalamatory "stage 4" remark by me below that's for 3 months after the new CEO is officially signed in - and he's not showing up until January, so relax about the jokey S4 remark. Price is good - don't worry.

Mikey - Many thanks for the PDF download. Haven't read that before. Putting my fundamentalist hat on I've got a ton and a half to say on the contents therein, but would take up page after page on here. If I can condense my thoughts to a more succinct summing up I might post later.

First impressions? He's a snake oil salesman - and I'd like to show why using his own explanations & perceptions, and some pretty crappy number crunching by him. The market's reaction to that interview confirms those suspicions in the state of the SP. Hopefully he's the wiser for it by his next update.