Member Info for Velo

This is using up my time. Can't keep with your posts. Wanted to do an anaylsis of VOD's new CEO ... hmmm will I have time? Doubtful now.

Warmonger my last post to you.

You still haven't provided proof or evidence that you fouled up and accused me of rubbishing another poster for being bullish. I've asked you at least twice to respond and all you've done is hunt for my one liner jokes. Will you die if you admit you got things wrong?. Try it, it'll be good for your soul.

Bet you're patholigcally incapable of apologising and saying sorry mate I got that one wrong.

Produce thre evidence or retract.

"'BTsticking 2 fingers up to the world'

- Yes they metaphorically were. You're selective with your facts. If you'd done any research you'd have seen up until virtually near the end of this week BT had escaped all SP retrace that all markets were suffering.

It was correct at the time I jokingly said that. (You should try it sometime). Now they've had a major cock-up with the chairman putting his foot in it whilst introducing the new CEO who commences next January; hence the start of a bad SP retrace. The market fears same old same old and wanted a radical new approach.

Now they know they're not getting it. And the SP is now paying the price for a gobby chairman's ill-advised response to reporters questions.
Stop being selective in seeing only what you want to confirmn your prejudices - it'll damage your trading; and that is -an inability to change, when the facts change.

W/Monger @ "The other night velo, you expected vod to be ok next day too"
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I know you're loving the attention and I hate feeding your addiction, but Ha! Geezaloo - Is that all you got?

- What about the erroneous attributaion of someone else's post to my name? Retract or provide evidence.

"why are you all buying since 230P???"

You're wandering a bit. Who's been buying since 230p?

Warmonger @ "Velo....after you criticised somebody the other day, for 'guaranteeing' a rise in coming days to weeks, you then went..."

What? I don't remember saying that to someone - sure you haven't confused me with another poster? Retract sir, or produce evidence!

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The trend is hard down, I wouldn't, couldn't buy just yet, so it's piss easy for you to say all will fail. The SP is trending down. How easy is it say worse to come? That's not news. Tell me what I don't know - not what I'm patently already aware of.

Whatever; challenge accepted - You ain't getting past 135p I salute you, for you are about to die in battle.

PS.
If the trend is still bearish at 135p I still won't be buying. Only when I receive my orders from the trend that it has crossed to the upside, will I move out the Roman centurian formations of the 9th division and take the high ground.

PPS - Don't confuse a strong support area with 'calling the floor'. That's the trend's job.

PPPS. All King Henry's Agincourt long bowmen have been issued with fresh instructions to adjust target range and rain down their arrows on you alone, upon first sight of your presence.

(Continued)....

Right, well I think the scene is set for everyone to expect further decline oin Monday, so let's see if we can get a handle on worst case scenarios.

(Just checked the FTSE futures and it's trending up in blue. It closes later tonight and reopens at 10pm Sunday, so if that blue holds over the wekend then a good sign. FTSE could get lucky on Monday and what I post next might not be as severe).

Actually things do look dire, no hiding that.

To REMAIN bearish the SP ONLY has to close below 231p - And that's if FTSE opens positive and the effect ripples over to here.
But the worry points are running to 224 or worse - closing there. Total, disaster day and not inconceivable that 208p gets a knock on the door. Volume is still high so won't know if people are still hitching their wagons up to it, so seems ridiculous to me to be posting of a worst case scenario but there it is.

My gut feeling if it is a red day? Maybe no worse than the mid 220's.

.

If you want this nightmare over - easy just close on Monday above 231p But for me to say for sure then we'd need to see 236p close for a guarantee tio be issued. Highest off the scale excitement if something good happens on Monday then it's 254 although ridiculous sounding is not impossible.

My gut feeling? No chance of the SP closing up. All signs point south.

.

Engine damage report:

Short term trend ..... Gone.
(But it's middle name is 'fickle' anyway; he could be back on your side midweek without so much as a bye or leave
- (Eeeh you little traitor!)

Medium term trend ....Wounded but still fighting.
- It's still plaintatively calling out: trust me - but it's bleeding from every orifice with limbs sheared off and a medic in close attendance. Should be carried off the battlefield, probably will come Monday but he's still in there shouting the odds with his best days behind him. Just a matter of time before the enevitable.

- Long term trend ... has never been your friend since Jan 2016 so no change of news there; never has been with him.
Boo .....hisss!

.

(Sigh) Expect a continuance of SP decline on Monday

Someone with a job that only allowed them to glance at their shares on returning home from work each day would tonight be lamenting .... - It closed in the lower 240's yesterday I've just come in from work and someone's made off with me 230's - how did that happen?

I'll tell you what happened - you blinked, didn't you?
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230's gone in a day!

Moving on; let's start with a positive.

What a fast positive rally into close. Could have closed worse. Looked at the minute by minute action and it would appear to be not the general market as such but a single buyer with muscle. Just put that out there in left field and if any surprises happen on Monday that differ from what I'm going to post next - there is your "hidden bullish sign" to surprise us all.

In fact that large movement at the end messed up the closing buy/sell prices. it's 228.15 bid to 228.35 yet the closing price that goes in the books is 229.60p. Anybody would be forgiven for thinking that BT might open blue on Monday; maybe flucuate after, but maybe a nice surprise hiding in the rubble?

And yet again another day of large movement of traffic out of BT - volume was well above the long term average but not as high as the last 2 days as those two were more than double the average. Cummlatively, this is serioius sentiment on the move. Before moving on further a quick word on a potentiasl future positive from a bad negative - and that is this morning's opening was a horrible large Gap-down. It closed Thursday night in the v low 240's but 8:00am this morning it opened at 236.odd Bugger!

A gap-up or gap-down is serious buying/selling pressure that overwehelms the system with the demand. It's main sign is that more of the same in that direction is always more than likely the following trading day. So a bad sign for Monday, almost a given of no matter how it opens that it will continue in that vein - down.

Here's the potential future positive from that. The Gap-down is from 240 to 236 - So I am extremely confident of posting that even though you think the SP is lost and going down that at some point in the future IT WILL RETURN if for no other reason than to fill that gap.

Sometimes a price does that and a few days later carries on back to what it was doing before coming back to fill the gap. And vica versa for a Gap-Up. One either believes in Gap-Up's/down or not - but I refer you to the last time a gap up was mentioned and I posted of the area from from 239 (I think) down to 225p. It subesquently came back to fill that a few months later but didn't quite go all the way back, but left the final few pennies betwen it and 225p unfilled.

During XD period it completed that task and later the "Squealer CEO candidate" ran to Sky news and made things worse. So I'm uber confident of seeing the SP back in that 236/240 area in the near future, no matter what occurs straight after that. You can hold me to account on that one :)
- (Continues) -

Exactly Casa - the new CEO has been pre-neutered, his balls handed back to him in a white plastic take-away bag and a prisoner of the old set-up. I'm going to email him to blink twice in public if he needs a rescue party sent in.

He's not going to be a radical shake-up merchant. I can see a wholesale entire BOD change on the cards unless BT gets some genuine entrpnerial and radical thinking in play.

The SP decline is reflecting the market receiving notification that no shake up is coming, not just because of Openreach and that the new CEO has been taken prisoner by the old guard already. Wonder if the DT boss sitting on BT's board is smiling this afternoon?

The SP has breeched only one support so far. Looks bad but it's only dropped past one pivot point so far; therefore keep a balance on thoughts.

Next pivot point is 225p, (After which is that scary number posted last night who's number dare not be named)

Think the SP is now getting it's dollop of the (belated) worldwide market volatility that we were all marvelling at it bypassing BT.

Bullish, supportive sentiment is being reined in. It'll be back. Just don't ask when.

Du Plessis fecked about wiv me 4 stage CEO plan but can't scapegoat him for the trend lines. They're collapsing fast. FECK!!!!!!!!!

Tin hats - and take cover - incoming!!!!!!!!!

Just looked and Awww FECK! 220's !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thank you very, very, much Senior Du Plessis. Please keep your gob shut until further notice.

"...I think we are in for some volatility generally until early December, when I think we could see an Xmas rally...."

I'm counting on that Santa Rally reappearance again Poker - already got my plans laid out for a long on the FTSE (DOW maybe too) just for that Santa Rally alone. Planning to make a couple of £k's - nothing much, just a couple
- if I pull it off - "IF" :)

Yes, serious volatility is the climate on all the indices now.

Made a bob or two shorting FTSE last week but hurriedly closed late on Friday evening (nice little profit, not much as didn't put much risk out in the first place) but had I been more laissez fair and took my time leaving it to this week I'd have made even more profit (trend lines never mislead me they're still saying stay short, but I was scaredy-cat a bit so closed - sheer lack of discipline).

I expected a temporary floor to occur sometime this week (markets not VOD) and that hasn't happened (I'm allowing myself until end of today before accepting the inevitable on the indices - no floor yet; no cease to the extreme volatilty). And then back to rough guesstimates for when the next near market commences. Had thought this plunge to abate, and slowly a rise back for some months (fooling us all) and only then when we're all looking the other way
- the real bear market starts in earnest.

Got far too much cash uninvested. But it's for "starting again" in case a bear market does become the new guv'ner and I get eaten alive. Not confident this world's longest ever bull market will make it to the 10 year winner's line.

Then again what if we're all too pessimistic and this turns out to be the world's longest bull market because it goes on and on, to last as long as say, 15 years or so??? Pundits are judging this bull market by all others; and a few calling time on it. When do markets ever obey anyone "calling the bottom"?

Markets make fools of everyone all the time. You can only follow them; not predict them.

"Grassy knoll theory...
I wonder how much input DT had in all of this? After all it’s in their best interest to keep the SP down, well at least for a few more months...lol"

Hee! Yeah Pacey, you've posted what's absent mindedly probably flirting through a lot of minds I bet, mine too.
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Additionally, the new CEO signs on the dotted line in January. The Germans get out of the POW camp at that precise point.

Gavpants has been asked to stay on even longer - until spring! with the new lad.

So if no one person is calling the shots until spring, anybody with ulterior motives could spring something in that time without fear of someone in BT with power crazed ideas leading a shareholders uprising and revolt against a takeover offer. The new guy will be neutured whilst Gavpants is tightly holding his hands for 3 months after Jaanuary.

Is he just the 'patsy'?

And another thing. Lot of importance attached to "the plan". Media love it. Never loved anything from Gavpants before. It's got another BT board member's fingerprints all over it, in my view, that (inbreeding again) Tim Hotteges guy the CEO of DT he's freed in January like a superman villain freed from captivity to challenge Superman..

Just gossip. Mere gossip only. Not a shred of evidence anywhere. But fun :)

Poker @ "I bought SHELL this morning, under 2400p ...dividend secure, well managed, sells more gas than oil....already up...results for Q3 out Nov 1st ..ex div mid Nov"

I'm already envious, sounds like you got the low of 2380 area. After all these years decided - I want it (RDSB).

But in times of crisis like these I'm refraining from 'calling it' on any share and watching for when trendlines cross to the upside, with plenty of accompanying confirmation. Which means foregoing quite a bit buying-in and quite a bit selling at the top trying to avoid false positives. So instead of making 100% I'm perhaps limiting myself to say 80% of the potential.
As Buffettt says: you pay a high price for security.

But well done getting Shell for sub 2400. Nice one!

(Continues):

New CEO sounds like he's already being held hostage to a restrained review. He's just been told PUBLICLY by Du Plessis what he can't do. Find salvation in another area but we're keeping the power - you may be the new CEO but we already have a plan thank you very much - and you will follow it.

Pity the new CEO (then again remember he's already historically big mates with Gavpants (inbreeding again, will he be just another Gavpants2 ???)

If he wants to go ahead and cut the divi because he needs the money for critical projects and not because of debt problems - then he should follow his business logic

- first thing is, once he gets signed in, is turn round and like Al Capone demonstrating his alpha male credentials, demonstrate to the BOD that he is king of the world, ruler of all he surveys, and that his word is final and declare First order of the day - Either that chairman goes or I do, right now! Right now!!!

I'm leaving the room for a wizz, take a vote and let me know your decision. You've got 10 minutes.

- Only then will he be his own man and BT will have half a chance for the future.

Nige, many thanks for copying that FT piece here. Sometimes I can sneak under their radar other times they block me with their hand out for money. But that is a very important report on the proceedings this week and goes a long way to explaining the events surrounding the SP volatility seeing as BT has until this point avoided the worldwide crash-party that's going on all over the place.

I "hit the roof" upon seeing the first taster sentence in your post of:
" Shares fall on Jansen appointment with chairman ruling out Openreach sale or dividend cut"
You know the sort of thing - 'man throws shoe through TV in anger' LOL!

When just WHEN does a chairman get to decide executive policy on the hoof and dictate it to the media? Apparently when things are in a state of crisis and he's filled with the sense of his own importance.

Imagine the chairman of the Tory party announcing say, tax cuts (even if true - not his day-job to advise the public)
The chairman is the representative of the BOD when he speaks - he reflects their wishes. It is the BOD who are responsible for the interests of the shareholders - no one else. Not even the CEO, not his first priority. In practise with dominant personalities, lines get blurred. A CEO will address individual shareholders reassuring them of say a recent plunge in a share price. And chairmen have to be chosen for their diplomacy, their tact, and general affability and TEAM PLAYER persona. THEY DO NOT DECIDE THE TERMS OFF THEIR OWN BAT!

What the feck was he thinking? Geezaloo!!! He should have replied reminding the questioners he was "only" the chairman and that their questions should be directed to the new man standing beside him, and only after he becomes CEO in January and after the CEO has shares a full discussion with the BOD. And then talk about waiting with excitement on hearing the new CEO's exciting vision for the future to which he and the BOD will also contribute - so all questions will be answered once the new CEO completes his review of the company and he unveils his vision for the future.

- AND AVOID TALKING AT ALL COSTS, AT ALL COSTS, ABOUT THINGS YOU HAVE NO AUTHORITY OVER. It's fecking basics! Thank you Du Plissés - now follow Gavpants out the door because you're on the road to doing as much damage to the SP as he did. DuP should be toast eventually.

What a feck up! What a cock up! Words fail me. Well they don't obviously - but they do. Too many inbreeding situations going on right now with close contacts on boards of DT/Blackrock/Blackstone and BT - unhealthy. Tail wagging the dog.

New CEO sounds like he's already being held hostage to a restrained review. He's just been told by Du Plessis what he can't do. Find salvation in another area but we're keeping the power - you may be the new CEO but we already have a plan - and you will follow it.
Pity the new CEO (the ... (continues)

Seconded. Would you mind doing a copy/paste Nige?

Just seen that RNS up there, looks like he was topping up as it says "% threshold crossed".

As I'm reading that RNS I can hear Ronnie Barker in an old b&w movie as a fire officer leaning out of an upstairs window apparantly taking the mick out of a TV advert saying dismissively straight to camera: "They never learn"

PS. Still on me cyclical charts Mrd.

I see VOD has terrible first 3 months of the year past 5 years are 40% probability of those re-occurring (Dec rubbish for VOD too but a fractional small rise not woirth mentioning).

Gains in April and May then back to negative drop in June.

Ooh wait - there's a banker!!!! July! 100% probability of a rise - never fallen! That's a guarantee that is - July can you hang on till then? :) :) :) If not it's only a 2% rise month anyway.

Look it's not a magic bag of bingo numbers I've got here - blame VOD not me :)

Which brings it back to crappy August, crappy September and crappy October.

Best I can do - a guarantee for next July, but only a 2 per cent'er ! Oh well :(