Member Info for Velo

(Concludes).....

The P/E ratio is STILL less than its industry peers, considerably less - meaning BT is still highly undervalued; still considered ‘a bargain’. But with each rise and hold in the SP, BT moves ever closer to one day becoming more fairly recognised in comparison to it’s peers.

One day it will be “fully” valued.

- And that will be an entirely different landscape in which risk becomes 50/50 – not bad not good, just fair. But the market re-rating of the SP currently means they are still not taking a big risk with BT. I expect the uptrend to continue unabated.

A strong performance from lunchtime to close. Prior to that, the morning intraday SP action resembled a drawing of the Loch Ness Monster. Hump after hump. Each time it rose, profit takers took advantage, sinking the SP beneath the loch after each rally, until the most persistent of them had been sated and from mid-day (just under 258) the SP then more resembled the trajectory of a bonfire night rocket as it was virtually a straight rise all the way into close, bears crushed under foot. Volume was above average yet again, as has every day been since early October, bar all but two days.
So, a strong finish with a capital ‘S’.

Bodes more than well for commencing next week.

I’d prefer no more spikes, but a steady rise through the 260’s ranks. But with that afternoon strength, wouldn’t be surprised if the 270’s showed up on Monday. Even if it’s not to be and instead a lacklustre day, the trend is still very strong, and can handle almost anything at the moment.

Which set me thinking about the future.

It’s relatively “easy” for the market to re-rate BT higher these past several months because the risk/reward is heavily weighted in their favour. BT has been severely undervalued for some time. But as the SP rises, so the under valuation recedes marginally with each decile 10p range ticked off. Eventually, one day, BT will no longer be under valued - but fully valued. That doesn’t mean the SP will correspond to that valuation. Sentiment will decide that. However, should it reach those heights of say early 2016 then, unless earnings keep pace (they are forecast to rise for the next 2 years, so no worries) then there could come a day when there will be no more talk of BT being a ‘cheap and an under valued share’ but ‘fair value’. And like all champions at the top of their game, they’re expected to be winners consistently; otherwise.......

- Anyway, back in the summer I calculated (based on P/E’s) and posted that fair value on then current earnings was IMO approx roundabout the 380’s-ish area (or was it 390’s-ish area? Forget now) But will be reworking it soon as it’s bound to have moved the goalposts somewhat).

Remember when BT was a single digit P/E ratio and sported a dividend that was near 8%?

Friday’s close show that BT is gaining respectability and has now upped its forward P/E ratio to double figures at P/E10.2 and the forward dividend is now 5.72%. So respectability beckons.

So how has it developed recently this year?

March 19th fwd P/E 8.08
Fwd Dividend 7.06%

May 1ST fwd P/E 8.86
Fwd Dividend 6.45%

Tonight = fwd P/E 10.2
Fwd Dividend 5.72%

P/E ratio is climbing and dividend % yield keeps dropping.

The P/E ratio is STILL less than its industry peers, considerably less - meaning BT is still highly undervalued; still considered ‘a bargain’. But with each rise and hold in the SP, BT moves ever closer to one day becoming more fairly recognised in comparison to it’s peers.

One day it will.. (continues)

(Continues):

Many observers in the US are eagerly looking to their indices recapturing the 200 day ma’s and crossing to the upside.

Eg.,
The Dow crossed it by close today.
The S&P500 is just a little short of reaching it.
The NASDAQ closed right on it, kissing it tonight.

Here, the FTSE100 is still a couple of hundred points below its 200 day ma and is still a work in progress.

The point is, once all these indices reclaim their 200 day averages, pundits will claim the recent volatility was just a market correction, but it’s all a bit hit and miss at the moment.

The VIX is showing returning confidence as it closed down out of the dangerous 20’s and closed tonight at 19. Several points less is desirable as it would reflect declining fear and returning confidence.

A good background in the markets would aid BT no end of course. Anyway BT is well clear and above its own 200 day ma. The Indices would love to own BT’s 200 day average.

Now just to throw a curve ball into proceedings – did you notice the SP Gapped-up this morning? It jumped from Wed’s close of 240 to open up this morning at 250.

That suggests to me that sometime in the future the SP will revisit that area to close the gap. Yes, I’m suggesting a TEMPORARY revisit right down to 240p-ish be it in 2 years, or 2 months, 2 weeks or 2 days. But I’m as certain as certain can be that it will revisit. Just my belief. And has absolutely no bearing on the current bull trend. And then continue what it was doing before the revisit.

All appears bullish for Friday, convincingly so, but bearing in mind the volatility of late, surprises may yet lurk around. And then there’s the profit taker’s to contend with.

It should continue further into the 260’s, higher even (269p being only the first resistance of the day; remember, it skipped over 3 the other day, but gave it all up 24 hours later)
- but if heavy profit taking is the order of the day, then back to low 250’s becomes a risk.

Bit of a weak argument to talk of dividend reduction as if it’s been sprung out of the blue in this trading update. As has been pointed out, this interim dividend calculation was unveiled to the market last year. The market already knew about it. It’s already factored in. And it’s only 0.23p reduction per share. So a £10,000 holding at tonight’s close would equate to losing just £8.80-odd compared to the previous year. Anyone with reservations about the dividend would be better served pointing out GP’s drip-drip tinkering with the dividend since before the SP started tanking in Jan 2016.

ie.,
- GP said 10% dividend is the set-policy for the future.
- The following year he said 10% dividend is no longer the policy but a progressive policy replaces it, that could/might include 10% if performance permits.
- Then last year he said the interim will be subject to a “calculation” to derive the dividend for the interim, but confirmed the ‘progressive’ phrase.

So 3 tinkerings with the dividend in the past 2 or 3 years. There’s your red flag – worrying about whether the new CEO goes for a fourth tinkering. NOT citing this 0.23p reduction in dividend per share against last year’s dividend. Come on! Only £8.80-odd down in divi’s over a full year, for a £10k holder?

Haven’t yet got the time to dig in deeper as limited in time to even post this.

Taken aback by the large swing in the SP on release of the ‘in line’ trading update. Does the large movement confer confidence by the market that it’s bullish sentiment towards BT is reward for not delivering unwelcome surprises? If the market is supposed to price-in ‘meeting expectations’ in advance, then what was the big rise for?

- Whatever, the flibberty-gibbet short term trend has rejoined the fold and has crossed back to bullish. Not one to take seriously.
However the medium term trend is, and it never failed throughout the current volatility. It is, as it always has, remained consistently bullish since early June - apart from going AWOL during XD period (hardly a crime).
And slowly, like the bend at the bottom of a Canadian ice hockey stick the ultra long term trend is showing the same, bending. Been nothing remotely like that in any way, shape or form since the long down trend began in Jan 2016.

Conventional long term trends like the 50/200 ma’s had already crossed to the upside. In fact most popular methods of measuring long term trend have already tossed their hats in the ring and turned bullish for BT, and remained so throughout the current volatility.

That’s all you need to know really. BT is still trending bullishly. When my own homemade long term trend lines finally cross to the upside, it will already be apparent to the most casual of observers, and I will sound like a late arrival saying the long term trends for BT are all now bullish, only to be met by a chorus of: We know!

Many observers in the US are eagerly looking to their indices recapturing the 200 day ma’s and cro

Typo!

But revenue is much easier.
GP said 2% down at H1 and therefore ‘in line’.

Should have read "2% down at Q1" not H1

One helluva range in the SP today. From 243 to 232p. At one point saw well over 4+% fall showing! WTF!?!

For a FTSE100 company to end the day at that level would be more than significant, but the SP got reigned in somewhat by close. Something I suppose. Ever felt like a pawn in a bigger game to which you're not allowed to see the rules? I empathised with a post below somewhere, comparing today's SP volatility to that more suited of an AIM stock.

Whatever, the medium term trend is still hanging in there. (Felt for sure it would be carried off on a stretcher on Monday, but no). So 'officially' BT's bullish up-trend that commenced from the lows of 201 back in May is still in charge. Hard to believe but it is. This is still an up-trending stock and has been all summer. The longest up-trend in two and three quarter years despite and including recent shenanigans.

So it enters Thursday best foot forward with a strong face.

AND for the first time since January 2016 the long term bearish trend has a discernable bend at the foot of it. The very first in all that time. It's still bearish, but starting to very mildly (very mildly) 'bend away'.

Keith you asked today: “Just noticed the RNS from 27 July missing from this site !! “

Was hoping someone would have posted you the link.

As you posted in a thread just over a week ago, on quarterly updates that was initiated by myself querying that missing Q1 (amongst other subjects) and the resultant solution kindly provided by Ascoyne straight after my post, I find myself paraphrasing your own style of lament back at you :)

“Can’t believe you didn’t already know that.”

I’m sure you do recall, and it was just a case of it, slipping your mind?

Just yanking your chain there :)

Here’s the Q1 link from that thread:
https://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/Quarterlyresults/2018-2019/Q1/Downloads/Newsrelease/q118-release.pdf

---------------------------------

Have no idea how to value the net profit tomorrow, as GP said being 3% up in Q1 was in line with forecasts. Yet the forecasts I’ve seen suggest a 17% increase is needed for this year’s net profit to come in on target. Can only assume that’s because of cost cutting benefits and perhaps year end exceptional items of those cuts will be brought into play at the end of Q4 to balance the books? Dunno on that one.

But revenue is much easier.
GP said 2% down at H1 and therefore ‘in line’. Full year revenue is forecast to be 1.8% down on year just ended. So a general round 2% allows GP ‘wriggle manoeuvre room’ which is a smart move IMO.

So 1.8% down at H1 tomorrow means no less than an expectation of revenue in the area of £11.65b.
(Or GP’s 2% then it falls further to = £11.635b).
So, either figure should ‘do it’ for the market.

Rough rule of thumb:

If revenue is down greater than £11.63b then most likely unfavourable reception awaits.

If revenue is up greater than £11.65b then the market would most likely cheer, IMO.

That’s based on revenue alone. Just don’t know how the market’s feeling on sentiment. Whether it would modestly reward a little ‘up’ or severely punish a little ‘down’. Sentiment has been all over the shop of late. Anybody’s guess what the sentiment is towards BT at the moment, whatever the results tomorrow morning.

It had completely slipped my mind.

(I'll claim posting after 1:00am after a trying day on motorways as my excuse : ) : )

Last Q1, GP reported all on track. Revenue certainly was; but net profit seemed to have a lot of catching up to do. As GP reassured all was on track to meet budgeted guidance I won't be expecting any unwelcome surprises. So more a H1 that should be "in line" than one that exceeds expectations. I have no fears for the forecast slight reduction in revenue to be in line, but net profit needs quite a bit of catching up to do. It might come down to 'exceptionals' in the year end result to get the net profit across the finish line, but GP assured all was 'in line' at Q1. So all looking good for the half year.

Hi Keith,

I’m 150 miles from my desk, with limited time all this week and it’s v late to boot; so hope this post is comprehendible.

Well done on your “allegedly” great buying and selling. Wish I could get away with quoting prices after they’ve already happened by adding “no reason to lie” : )

Thursday? This Thursday? I’m confused. Not sure I’ve understood you there Keith.

Monopoly? I can understand why one might think that, but it’s more likely no one’s showing any interest in having a bash themselves. Also if I happen to see someone specifically call my name in a post, I do feel obliged to respond.

PS. I don’t describe myself as someone who “predicts” - predictions almost always end in failure but rather as someone who follows trends (apart from the spreadsheet calcs pivot points carry-on, that’s purely for fun). To me, trend following is the real deal.

Running out of time, but very concerned about the sudden volatility in BT first swinging violently one way only to reverse the next. Then there’s trying to gauge when the next bear market commences which must now be a racing certainty after the chancellor announced officially “the end of austerity” in parliament today - now that is a ‘prediction’ that will come back to haunt him (much like Gordon Brown stating 3 years before the 2000 dot.com stock market crash that it was: “the end of boom and bust economics”).

Final page 5)

“The idea that depreciation doesn’t matter? … You have to replace the trucks all the time. It’s a real cost. As Warren says, it’s the worst cost, because you pay it way in advance, and get the benefit way later. So it’s absolutely insane. And of course, it was a bunch of investment bankers that invented it to make their trade easier. And it’s disgusting.”

&

EBITDA Analysis Obscures the Difference between Good and Bad Businesses
EBITDA, in addition to being a flawed measure of cash flow, also masks the relative importance of the several components of corporate cash flow. Pre-tax earnings and deprecation allowance comprise a company’s pre-tax cash flow; earnings are the return on the capital invested in a business, while depreciation is essentially a return of the capital invested in a business.

Top 5 Reasons Why EBITDA Is A Great Big Lie:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedgavin/2011/12/28/top-five-reasons-why-ebitda-is-a-great-big-lie/#18c0ab09d2da

=====================

MY IMPRESSION:

Nick Read is an accomplished accountant so he knows when to use EBITDA to cover sins. From this interview I have the impression that not only is he a blame shifter, but has the nature of a snake oil salesman. Safe hands? Hmmm. Your view may differ

Phew!

END

Page 4)

[[Blah blah, misdirection away from the question on dividends to conclude on...]]

N.Read:
...And to de-lever on it through two levers. One is obviously the expansion of EBITDA,......

==========================

[[Right stop there! I warned you about hiding behind EBIDTA. You might think I'm in a class of one in disliking EBITDA but I'm not. I call Warren Buffett to the stand. (Google what Warren Buffet thinks of CEO's who hide behind EBITDA).

Warren, please take the stand. Thank you. Would you please share with us your opinion of CEO's and analysts who employ EBITDA to persuade others that all is well?

Warren Buffett: DIRECT QUOTE -
“It amazes me how widespread the use of EBITDA has become. People try to dress up financial statements with it.
We won’t buy into companies where someone’s talking about EBITDA. If you look at all companies, and split them into companies that use EBITDA as a metric and those that don’t, I suspect you’ll find a lot more fraud in the former group. Look at companies like Wal-Mart, GE and Microsoft — they’ll NEVER use EBITDA in their annual report.”

“Does management think the tooth fairy pays for capital expenditures?”

& some quotes elsewhere:
People want to send me (Buffett) books with EBITDA and I say fine, as long as you pay cap ex. There are very few businesses that can spend a lot less than depreciation and maintain the health of the business.
This is nonsense. It couldn’t be worse. But a whole generation of investors have been taught this. It’s not a non-cash expense — it’s a cash expense but you spend it first. It’s a delayed recording of a cash expense. We at Berkshire are going to spend more this year on cap ex than we depreciate.
[CMunger: I think that, every time you saw the word EBITDA [earnings], you should substitute the word “bullshit” earnings.]
&
And Charlie Munger, Buffett's life long colleague:
Munger, who’s known for not mincing words, said the “horrors” of EBITDA have been understated as has the “disgusting nature of the people that brought that term into the valuation of business.”
He continued: “And now they use it in the business schools. Now, that is horror squared. I mean, it’s bad enough that a bunch of thieves start using a term. But when it gets so common that the business schools copy it, that’s not a good result.”

“The idea that depreciation doesn’t matter? … You have to replace the trucks all the time. It’s a real cost. As Warren says, it’s the worst cost, because you pay it way in advance, and get the benefit way later. So it’s absolutely insane. And of course, it was a bunch of investment bankers that invented it to make their trade easier. And it’s disgusting.”

&

Continues

Page 3)

A.Lee:
...... Okay, so we've - thanks for that

[[Traumatised response to a bag of wind reply to that 5G question which he now wishes he'd never asked]]

A.Lee:
Continues: ..... And it brings us on to the dividends..... Some investors have got nervous about sustainability of your dividend, the dividend cover and the dividend growth. I wondered if you could talk about your confidence in covering and delivering the dividends?

[[ Great! Really want to hear some reassurance here. Don't care if the dividends are going to be paid as per normal, just acknowledge they destroy all known fiscal prudence of good financial housekeeping and even though they're part-paid paid from free cash flow as earnings are insufficient to finance them, and thus increasing debt somewhat, you have a plan to have the dividend covered by year whatever in the near future. Great, Go ahead reassure me. In your own time]]

N.Read:
Yeah, I think it's important to understand how the board think about the dividend cause the board own the policy.

[[Alert: "the board OWN the policy" So Read is locked in a cupboard then is he? Blame shifting underway and in progress]]

N.Read:
Continues: ...And the board have a very specific view.

[[ Yes, but what's YOUR view as an accountant no less???]]

N.Read:
Continues: ...They look at we, we every year announce how much the cumulative free cash flow long-term incentive plan of management is.

[["Incentive"???? What kind of talk is this?]]

N.Read:
Continues: ...So the midpoint of that range is €17billion for the next 3 years. So THEY SAY the dividends are covered.

[[Bullsh!t! Yes, "They" say that. But you're the one being interviewed - tell me man WHAT DO YOU SAY -AS AN ACCOUNTANT? You're sounding awfully weak and downbeat in this reply. As if your heart is not in your reply. What happened to proud Mr.Prickly?]]

N.Read:
Continues: We're confident in the dividend policy that we have.

[[Blame shifter! All the way through your reply is 'THEY SAY'. They! They! Now it's "we" in your final sentence. So you agree all along but are worried that should the sh!t hit the fan, as an accountant you'd be held more responsible so you drop "They" and "they own the policy" all over the place to heave the blame on to others should this unravel? And some think accountants won't dabble in politicking!]]

A.Lee:
Okay say -

[[That's as far as got]]

N.Read:
- And that remains the case. Sometimes there's confusion with investors about the fact that yeah but hold on a minute, your dividend - sorry your spectrum cost this year and next year is not going to be €1.2billion because of 5G auction. And my point to investors is that is a leverage issue not a dividend issue.........

[[Blah blah, misdirection away from the question on dividends to conclude on...]]

N.Read:
...And to de-lever on it through two levers. One is obviously the expansion of EBITDA,......

==========================

[[Right stop

Page 2)

A.Lee:
....EV to IC? Vodafone has one of the lowest returns in the sector and trades on one of the lowest EV to IC's in the sector. How materially can you change that and how quickly can you?

N.Read:
We haven't really published our return on capital employed and there is a number of reasons why we do that. Sometimes we feel that maybe from a conversation with regulators etc., it doesn't always end up being a positive one.

[[ So VOD has self-confessed form on being economical with the truth DELIBERATELY to obscure and hide financial data]]

N.Read:
continues: So, but our return on capital employed for our controlled businesses, pre-tax, is about 5.6%

[[ Actually I have it - it's 4.03% which is low for their sector. Is this why so many cite problems with VOD's balance sheet?]]

N.Read:
In the end what we're doing is driving EBITDA ......

[[ Arggghh! I hate EBITDA talk! It's a smokescreen to hide behind IMO]]

N.Read:
continues: ....So the growth from EBITDA basically falls to EBIT.

[[ What! Again?]]

N.Read:
So Quarter2 will be down on Quarter1.

[[Possible reason for SP accelerated decline? We'll see on the 14th]]

N.Read:
Continues: We are the global leader in IOT, three quarters of a billion revenue, growing in sort of mid teens at the moment. Sort of look at it and say...... on the cost base for greater expansion on EBITDA.

[[ Seriously I'm gonna blow a fuse if a CEO with a fast declining SP rabbits on about EBITDA any more. Enough!]]

A.Lee:
That sounds like some kind of reacceleration maybe into FY'20 but I don't want to put words in your mouth.

N.Read:
No, you can't.

A.Lee: Can you give us an update on the impact from Iliad in Italy and how you that in the next couple of quarters?

N.Read:
........ when you're thinking about 1 to 5% EBITDA growth and we said it was prudent....

[[ EBITDA again! Forming a bad impression here. Enough!]]

A.Lee:

The interviewer then asks him specifically about EBITDA So I'll excuse him on this reply]]

A.Lee:
We've had some pretty bullish presentations on what 5G can do during the conference so far. When, when is 5G coming? When, when are you going to start deploying 5G on a commercial scale? And how is that going to change compared to dynamics? Is it an opportunity or is it even a threat to Vodafone in some markets?

N.Read:
[[Half page 8 - yabber, yabber, yabber. Half page 9 - yabber, yabber, yabber. No sign of even an answer]]

N.Read:
Yabber yabber, yabber. Finally, So, I think let's not get too carried away. I think 4G will launch next year - next fiscal year.

[[ Could have said that in the first place; what are you hiding? We're you talking and talking until you could come up with a guesstimate? You don't really know, do you?]]

A.Lee:
...... Okay, so we've - thanks for that

[[Traumatised response to a bag of wind reply to that 5G question which he now wishes he'd never asked]]

A.Lee:
Continues: ..... And it brings

(This might run to 3 or 4 pages on your screen)

I'm warming more and more to the belief that the accelerated decline in the SP may additionally be connected to the upcoming trading update from Nick Read, in that there may be a profit warning deftly camouflaged in the Update and therefore this decline to some extent is already priced in, on that expectation. If it is, I think it may be priced-in on what he won't do, rather than what he is proposing to do.

What do you know of the new CEO? Favourable, impressed or still to make your mind up?

I've formed an opinion of him solely from the interview link. It's my impression of him from my perspective alone. Some pages where the interview goes into tech issues unrelated to finance I skip over otherwise these posts would be longer than the 13 page document interview.

[[My comments interject throughout and are enclosed in these things]]

- So thanks again to Mikey for the PDF download link revealing an open window into Nick Read's thinking -
https://www.vodafone.com/content/dam/vodafone-images/investors/pdfs/Transcript-Final.docx

First off stereotyping by label is a dangerous perception to engage in. The new CEO is a qualified and experienced accountant so will it make him a safe pair of hands and engage less in politicking, as a few have already expressed?

Stereotypes. Labels. Accountant-Safe pair of hands-Trustworthy-Non-politicking? Is that true?

What follows is my snapshot impression of him based wholly on the link document of his interview held recenty on 13th September It's only my impression. Your view may differ.

-----------------------------------------

First opening exchange between Nick Read and the interviewer (Andrew Lee) with a brief welcome and a congratulations on his appointment and then a totally innocent opening question to put his guest at ease and get the show rolling - and immediately I'm struck that Read can be a prickly customer. Almost as if looking to be easily offended if someone uses a 'word or term' he doesn't like.

A. Lee:
And I wondered if you wanted to talk through sort of how you've been thinking and preparing for the role and what you're strategic priorities are as you get into that role?

N. Read:
Why I think more than just thinking and preparing!!
I would say: What have I really been focussed on for the last sort of two, three months?

[[Warming to taking on both roles he immediately asks himself a second question and takes on the role of interviewer]]

N.Read:
You know: What have been the key priorities?

[[Now commences to answer his own questions LOL]]

N.Read:
Because I think there's a sense of urgency for action? I'd say a handful of things.................

[[His reply reveals of course he's been really, really, busy. True enough. But hell - prickly or what?]]

A.Lee:
....EV to IC? continues...

Just been going over potential or whatever, guesstimates, call it what you will, probable supports, in the quiet of this afternoon now my chores are done for the day and I'd like to update, ruminating further on my posts of 130p area as a strong support. Now I've had time for a further examination of it all, you might be surprised what I'm going to say next.

And it's this: Don't be too hasty to write off this 150-140 area

- It's messy but the current SP position has not yet fully exited from it. Trend lines of course (which I breathe, live and die by) are saying: "You're kidding me, right? This sub is heading for the sea floor!"

Every time I try and anticipate a share trend change - I invariably lose. The trend is down. Fact. Let the trend be your friend and all that. So I'm not going to anticipate it; I'm going to sneak up on it using elephant grass as cover and say:

DON'T BE TOO HASTY IN WRITING OFF THIS 150/140 AREA.

It's still on. It's doing it's stuff but slowly sinking yes, but it hasn't yet lost control of this area - yet.
Should it fall beneath 140 then the command goes out "Fall back to 130".

And it's the 130 area I want to highlight. For those who are won't to glance at Fibonacci levels now and then it may be interesting to note that the 'final' Fibbo level (61%) comes in at just 2 or 3p below 140p when using the deepest point of the lowest SP of the last stock market crash in Oct/Nov 2008 for VOD. Isn't that a nice coincidence? Incidentally 150p comes in approx with the Fibbo 50% level but as many will tell you 50% is not a true Fibbo number - it's an imposter. So, 150 was never going to be the be all and end all in strictly Fibbo terms. But it was in with a decent chance and DID support for several days. (Strongly supporting 150-154 for very nearly 2 weeks; bouncing between one and t'other).

It's asking far too much for Fibbo prices to identify a likely trend change on specifically a precise price they land on, but a highly visible hard polarity change at 130p area is awfully damn close enough to it - enough for me to also claim it as a Fibbo "area" level!

So "probabilities" stacking up :) Should it ever be that 130 comes to be tested and the whole 130 area fails - no one on this board will be more disappointed than me. ( Except for big, big, money investors of course :)

Beneath 130p reveals a really, really, decent standalone support at 125-ish. Quite impressed with it.

Should that go then it's game over in my book - 80p? - Less? You name it, I haven't a clue!

- So 150? 140? 130? 125? Which will it be? Don't ask me, how would I know?

But I will stick my neck out a country mile taunting the guillotine further and say once again:

DON'T BE TOO HASTY IN WRITING OFF THIS 150/140 AREA OFF.

It's still functioning. It hasn't actually failed you yet. You can't write this whole area off until it actually does fail. It's still in play.

"So everybody just shuffle along in your seats one decimal place to the right please, and now look again :)."

No, shuffle to the left instead LOL!

.... I need a rest

Too many noughts for me Keith. Just couldn't believe how much it was. Thanks. Should have used the % button instead of a straight multiply. Doh!

So everybody just shuffle along in your seats one decimal place to the right please, and now look again :).

Apologies, it should be £9.6 million of BT shares that Black Rock bought and not £96 million. Still a lot.£9.6m! So my opinion should still stand as still a huge amount for such a tiny low fractional increase in their holding.

And they still hold a total of £1.1 billion's worth in BT's shares. That's what I still can hardly believe; that they hold that much in BT.

All other figures caused less trouble as they were bigger perecentages :) so should be as originally, for company values etc.,
----------------------
Thanks Keith. Quickly sorted before other arrivals point my errors out.

PS.

Didn't want to confuse with too many numbers in the last post but that 5.10% holding of BT's shares held by Black Rock equates to them holding 506 million BT shares.

And at tonight's closing SP, that means their 506 million holding in BT shares is worth £1.1 BILLION !!!

----------------------------

.

Black Rock themselves are capitalised as being worth £48.9 billion and are twice the size of BT.

BT is valued at approx half of Black Rock at £23.9 billion.

I'm done for the night Tom. Pity I was all set to do an appraisal of the CEO based on that link interview. Should have gone straight to the link first and avoided here. Spent too much time chasing tails, and then got tied up elsewhere.

Due up north all next week and wanted the CEO bit out if the way tonight and a full analysis of the balance sheet of the truth and nothing but the truth :) by end of Sat. Working Sunday then hitting the road Monday, so may only get the one done tomorrow, as chores elswhere. Poor discipline on my part.

Only just noticed that RNS up above as it came out mid afternoon. Once again it's a boring 'Holdings in company' change. It's Black Rock again. Have no idea what's behind these constant apparantly tiny transactions (but they're not tiny as I'll show).

I don't know if hedge funds are all the same or whether it's just that I've never noticed ever before, but I'm wondering if (legally) they're trading BT shares and making a 'small' profit each time if they call it right. I posted the other day of pre-supposing perhaps they made only £1 million profit each time. So put these RNS published figures through my desk calculator, and the result is - I'm gonna need a bigger calculator!

I find these types of RNS hard to comphrehend - I never know if I'm looking at the right figures, but for the purposes of this exercise I'll give it a go and you can check them yourself if you wish.

It says:

25th Oct (so Thursday's prices) TOTAL = 5.10%
Position of PREVIOUS notification . . . .= 5.06%

So a tiny, tiny, increase of only 0.04% Hardly worth telling you, isn't?

But wait. That's a total of 5.10% out of BT's 9.9 billion shares they hold.
So the 0.04% that they've bought is actually 39.6 million shares!

How much were 39.6 million shares worth at Thursday's prices? Well, let's see, the SP ranged wildly on Thursday from roughly a high of 251p down to 234p all in one day. Now it doesn't specify the price nor the time of the trade, so let's say take the halfway point between the two as it sounds fair. So that would be roughly 242p. That's a midway guesstimate by me, you could run all the figures yourself, I might even be looking in the wrong boxes, I 've taken everything under TOTAL

Right so now I have a price and a quantity, here we go -

Share price of 242p x 39,687,612 shares = £96 MILLION !!!!!

There's no way on earth I've calculated that right. Has to be a mistake. £96 million? That's not profit by Black Rock it's the amount they bought. Perhaps it's some counter action to one of their many sales. The profit would be in the diffeence between what they paid and what they sold. For all I know with them increasing that could be all profit from some sort of complicated hedge fund transaction I have no inkling of.

Anyway, the point I'm making is that these are tiny perecetage movements either up or down by Black Rock each time, but huge amounts in financial terms. They've made this transaction during a severely volatile couple of trading days in BT's history, so coincidence? Some sort of porfit taking that I can't work out from where or how? But there you go. Just one itty, bitty, tiny transaction and it's £96 million pounds in value. It happens frequently so what are they doing tooing and frooing so much. It's not always the same but varying buys or sells. I don't get it.