Member Info for Vascular

Ok. Then. When will the number of outlets being rolled out increase? To how many ? You don't know , so i have not assumed anything......if they do, when they do, that's good isn't it, but until then.....

Thanks Billy.

Ill have a close look at your figures a little later and get back to you. Cheers Vas

SEB, Thanks for replying. I think you misunderstand what i was trying to find out. I know about everything you have mentioned that COULD/ WILL improve the figures but to be honest none of this has either happened yet, or has been disclosed as happening yet. All we know is the costs per packet, the number of outlets at present being rolled out per month in US ( 500 pm) and how many were disclosed as being sold during the trial. To be honest the trial was with the Schrader family business, who later sold up and bought into Zoe.... so the numbers should be good / or they sold well in those particular shops because they had the family behind the product, in the first place.

All i was trying to do was work out what the numbers looked like if all the "good stuff" that could happen, did not happen, or took longer to happen, then what do the figures look like as a back stop with the 500 outlet rollout continuing for several more years. I came to the conclusion that if nothing else happened, and only the 500 shops rolled out in USA then the Zoe share price will still more than double in a years time.

However, I asked others members of the board to check them, validate them, criticise them but using their own figures ....and all you get is bullying.

Its not deliberately low balling starting on a PE at present of 10. What PE do you think Zoe is presently on? and why? Honest question.

All i did tonight was post some calculations on this board ( below) and ask anyone with any experience to respond and give me their opinion. Any new investors or old please give me an honest, calm reply along with their thinking and you will find i always treat people as they treat me and others, with respect even if i disagree with them. That's all I have done. Since the time I posted my piece I have had an orchestrated wave of attacks from the same old crew here . (some even behind the green screen) and i have been ridiculed, and so i have responded. I am an investor, i work hard, i am a sole player, and find myself up against a very nervous, insecure but solid crew, which sometimes makes me feel that some of you ( not the children) may not be everything you state you are...as any genuine investor would be happy to debate, argue, put their evidence forward and make their thoughts known, but you lot just attack, bully and patronise...which is not a very secure place to be honest. here it is again , in case anyone else wishes to contribute. Please don't be afraid of the green crew.Billy / anyone . Do you think my calculations look reasonable. I am just considering the USA rollout only, of 500 outlets per month and also aware that other streams of income will come into play, but ignoring them plus i am only using a PE of 10.Trying to isolate what the US rollout will add to share price as it rolls out over next few years . It appears the share price appreciation will stay the same and its only the forward PE applied to the share that will increase ( unless they begin doubling rollout or something).Todays share price at around 49p, could be considered fair value for Zoe at this moment in time. It is much what you would expect if you calculate that Zoe now have 3,000 outlets making £10 of gross profit per day, x 360 days and on a conservative forward PE of 10. I calculate this to around 48p per share.Therefore, it seems that each month going forward the US ( 10,000 store rollout) with 500 outlets added monthly , will produce approx 7p per month (added value) to the share price increase (in theory) each month!If so, and if this rate continues in the US then this will add approx. 84p per year to the Zoe share price for as long as this continues on a forward PE x 10.PE of 10 = 7p per month / 84p PA per sharePE of 20 = 14p per month / £1.68 PA per sharePE 0f 30 = 21p per month / £ 5.04p PA per shareDo you think these numbers are ok, and at what stage will the company's forward PE be increased from todays 10, to say 20?

Well IDONOT HAVE A CLUE,
i don't think anyone really listens to you.........but go on.

Doesn't make any sense....try harder.

There is a stroke club where i work, but you don't want to go there.

Now he's demanding me to read him a bedtime story.... I can't believe you guys, you got school tomorrow. I was in bed by now at your age.

CitizenPRatt. What is it you are trying to say!

oh, and by the way, Blutit is trying to find his way behind the green scream, can you make sure he arrives ok.

Bluetit. Please, go behind the green screen with the others.

Hi Billy, I was answering The Fishmonger.

He assumed that once a customer visits a shop, buys a pack of CHILLS and smokes them, that they will automatically come back every day to replenish their CBC fags. If your not addicted to fags in the first place ( its the nicotine that the body craves,) then you won't have that addicted feeling that you must pop in and pick a pack ( or in Fishmongers case 2 boxes) per day, to relive the distressful feeling. Non smokers will buy for recreational, or medical but not from addiction - so IMO will buy occasionally .
Most people don't realise but after a fag with nicotine, the nicotine decreases very quickly in the body and when addicted , creates a nervous, anxious feeling in the person that they need another fag to make the feel better and relaxed. The nicotine is very clever and is brain soluble, its one of the fastest active ingredients that can go from inhalation (lungs) into blood stream and into the brain in seconds, giving a calming feline ( in reality just topping up the nicotine so body not addicted for a short period) . Therefore a smoker thinks that smoking the fag , makes them feel relaxed, when in theory its just topping up the nicotine again, ..but the clever thing is the nicotine also tricks the brain so the smoker's sun conscious ( that's why some go to hypnotist) never associates that its the nicotine he is putting into his body, that will set of a chain of evets of anxiety , so that in half an hour later they are anxious, and craving another cigarette, which in turn leads to another fag and dose of nicotine, which taken they think relaxes them, buy then again it sets of another chain of events so that the smoker thinks that smoking relaxes them, but in reality ( because of the time lapse between enjoying the smoke an feeling relaxed, and then 30 mins later the feelings of anxiety because of nicotine withdrawal ) the sub conscious never works this connection out. = addiction.
However, smokers / ex smokers trying to quit are the best customers as because IF CBD does replace the nicotine ...then CHILLS will be massive, as they will buy ( two packs a day, to replace their usual brand ) .

The BIG QUESTION IS .....can CBD replace nicotine in fags, and if so will to what degree.

If i went out into Clapham on Friday night, lots of mates, lots of drinking, lots of smokers. If I only smoked CBD, and it did not "replace" the nicotine then it would not matter how many CBD fags i had, my body would be screaming for nicotine....and i would end up back on a nicotine vape or nicking others peeps fags.

Form what i have read its the feelings of calmness that CBD give via smokes that they hope will detract from the nicotine, but nicotine is a hard core addiction and so the jury is out.......don't forget that up until now the best solution has been "nicotine replacement therapy" , patches, vapes

Sorry to go on and hope it makes some sense.

Its OK to admit you don't have a clue. Maybe one of your mates hiding behind the green screen have an opinion, when they are finished doing whatever they are doing behind the curtain. If i turn the lights out I bet they all come running out screaming.. .

I'm not looking for an argument ( or a spanking) just wan't some feedback on what i posted from people better informed than myself.
I appreciated Tobler replying to me earlier in a civilised manner, even though we don't always agree , i do think we are starting to gel.

Just an observation BuySELL Freddy the Fishmonger.
I'm an ex smoker, stopped smoking, just vape when out drinking ( with a low nicotine) .
Do you know what it was that drove me to the newsagents every morning on my way to work ( rain and shine) every day to buy my fags and get my repeat prescription of Silk Cut......at £12 per pack of twenty) ..it was the nicotine.

Now customers will come in all shapes and sizes but at the end of the day there will be those that have never smoked and wish to have the occasional cbd fag.....they are not demanded by their brains to have one every hour or buy twenty every day as you mentioned - WHY? because they are not nicotine dependent.
( A n addicted smoker will walk 5 miles through driving snow to get a pack of fags for the night, if he runs out)

Then there are the ex smokers ( the lack of nicotine will be still biting them) and IF CBD fags can replace that feeling of being eaten up from within, then they will be a massive hit. But, it depends on the relief that CBD gives to addicted smokers - will it take the symptoms of nicotine withdrawal away.???....all the successful replacement products such as vapes./ patches etc...have nicotine , and they still fail most times.

Its a big ask, and yet to be seen.

A bit creepy there Bluetit, a bit to much spanking for my liking....and play nicely with me and ill show you something.....it does not look good i'm afraid, not good at all. Why did you have to even go there?

Why don't you just try, or most reading this will make the assumption you don't have a clue what your talking about.

So get your pencil and paper out and remember were talking just the US ( up to 10,000) rollout at 500 per month.....simple parameters.

You can do better, maybe.

Thanks Billy.

I was a bit lazy and just stuck down that each shop would sell £10 of product each day and never stipulated how many products .

Look forward to your calculations.

Can you make it five products per day ( as that's top end per day for some, and was quoted in early trials)
Cheers Vas

Blue,

You seem to have shouted down my post - so please calmly tell us all here ....
What do you think is fair value for ZOE TODAY ?
Forget everything you think will happen in the future, just from what we know.....

I am genuinely asking, as you so strongly disagreed with me... you must have a more accurate price for the share price.

TR.
Thanks for your reply.
Yes, i do realise my numbers are low but they are figures that we can say we know about with some certainty at the moment.
I was trying to screen out all the "hope" and "might be's" ( see Blutits rant, full of future projections - which may come true, in the future, but that's for the future.) ). I'm looking at the here and now., so to get some idea about what value the US rollout may contribute towards the SP going forward. Its neither a ramp nor a deramp because we all know the company should do much better than my numbers.

IF Zoe kept to the 500 per month, if sales were low at £10 per day and if the PE stayed as it is then the share price would grow by 150% from today.

I agree that the quarterly updates is what they will be judged on at the end of the day.

Billy / anyone . Do you think my calculations look reasonable. I am just considering the USA rollout only, of 500 outlets per month and also aware that other streams of income will come into play, but ignoring them plus i am only using a PE of 10.

Trying to isolate what the US rollout will add to share price as it rolls out over next few years . It appears the share price appreciation will stay the same and its only the forward PE applied to the share that will increase ( unless they begin doubling rollout or something).
Todays share price at around 49p, could be considered fair value for Zoe at this moment in time. It is much what you would expect if you calculate that Zoe now have 3,000 outlets making £10 of gross profit per day, x 360 days and on a conservative forward PE of 10. I calculate this to around 48p per share.

Therefore, it seems that each month going forward the US ( 10,000 store rollout) with 500 outlets added monthly , will produce approx 7p per month (added value) to the share price increase (in theory) each month!

If so, and if this rate continues in the US then this will add approx. 84p per year to the Zoe share price for as long as this continues on a forward PE x 10.
PE of 10 = 7p per month / 84p PA per share
PE of 20 = 14p per month / £1.68 PA per share
PE 0f 30 = 21p per month / £ 5.04p PA per share

Do you think these numbers are ok, and at what stage will the company's forward PE be increased from todays 10, to say 20?

I ignore the tails, just go by the closing and opening prices on the main body of the candle. Use daily charts also.

Some people take into account the tails apparently. As you have pointed out if the tails are included then the gap has been filled. However, not if you use the main body's only of the candles.
There is still a fairly good chance the gap could be left for dead and never get completed filled, as its not an exact science but a pretty good indicator only.

IMO ( could be wrong) I think that as share price is down here, the market could plunge it down to get a few stops losses and fill the gap at the same time, and then quickly recover which would leave a tail on the candle for today, so in my book it might hit 43.86 ( what i have) and rise slightly, say close at 46/7 to close. A partial fill.

But hey it could be 59p this afternoon and moving away from the 200 average rather than sitting below it.

Hi Billy, that's my understanding. It might be quite difficult to buy down there! but worth a try.

Billy,

As far as news flow goes, i was thinking some new info / developments regarding the distributors in UK, and in Europe for example....just something positive for the next few months.