Member Info for Vascular

Well Done Wondergoals. It does look like the same trial. Is this a trial we should have been aware about or a something new?

https://www.pharmiweb.com/press-release/2021-09-01/bavarian-nordic-reports-positive-results-from-human-challenge-trial-of-its-rsv-vaccine-candidate

Hi Schalf,

You lost me a little when you mentioned my employer and my colleagues , and some messages etc.....its just me i'm afraid, I know it must be nearly as disappointing as knowing that the Friday 265,000 buy was just gallini - and not the starting pistol to something more positive lol. or is it?
Yes, I think we can all agree its been a challenging year as far as covid goes, and I do not blame everything on the company, especially covid, but at the end of the day the sales will be, what the sales will be .

Just s an aside.
What do you think the annual revenue should be to support a base of 30p a share , with 30% gross profit.
so far

So far, We have
WeatherGeek = no revenue required up to around £1.20 per share.

Vas £18m revenue PA at a 30% profit = £6 m gross profits gives us around 28p per share at x 10

MarketTimer £12 m PA at 50% profit = 30p

Anyone else care to have their go, there is no right or wrong just what investors think !.......its all in the lap of the gods really at this stage.

The prize for the person who gets closest has been kindly donated by an member of this board. The winner will get a memorable night out, all expenses paid with Mr Kipper.

Morning Schalfenplanet.
Would you mind if we call you Planet in future..! :)
Can i put a question to you.
You remember when the company's policy seem to change end of June, when they suddenly announced to the market that they will now only RNS revenues on a quarterly basis. The timing of this announcement is interesting in retrospect, in light of what we have been told since...distribution problems, etc

This change to a quarterly announcement of revenue was a self imposed policy, which the company could change immediately, if they so wished.

During this time the SP fall has been savage, and the one thing that would have at least put the breaks on this, and could have increased SP would have been to scrap the quarterly revenue RNS, and make it monthly or as when orders received.
Lets be honest, that's what other company's do.

If Chill have been doing well, or very well on the revenue front then this one small change would have bolstered confidence in its investors, in the SP, and in the market generally as investors could actually SEE the growth happening in front of their eyes, slowly but surely. This would have reduced, or even reversed the SP decline since that time .

Ask yourself, why did the company choose NOT to do this simple change.............if business was / is is good, then shout it out to the market!! Why not?

I can only think that releasing the numbers on a more regular basis as they had earlier, would have confirmed to the market that their are big problems in revenue recognition, and collection and made the situation with the share price even worse, by fueling a lack of confidence in future targets and revenues.
This is not a de ramp. These are facts which never get discussed here or in the telegram hole.
Can you see how things often make more sense in retrospect.
However, the problem is still there, behind the sight of investors for the time being but will have to surface sooner or latter.
Cheers GL Vas

Morning WeatherGeek,
Thanks for replying.
You said "You need more than PE when it comes to valuation. You're questions show a real lack of investment understanding and foresight".
I think my question is a very relevant as until we are informed otherwise distribution and therefore sales is slowing down in US - do you have any evidence for the contrary, all we get from the company are veiled warnings imo.
There is very little to go on from where i am standing! Please lead the way. Can you show us your calculations? What will you use for your Earnings per share? How will you decide the future growth rate for CHILL?

What are you using for growth rate this year, next year and the year after? Impossible.
look forward to your calculations . I would need more information.
Cheers Vas

Schalf.

Its not a problem. You too.

Hopelessness, I think you missed another poster calling you hopeless Dave, waste of space earlier - did you see that? you didn't bite back. Why?
This question is for you.
What would CHILL need to generate in annual revenue to support a share price of 30p, with a 30% gross profit to CHILL.
Take your time.

You really do try and make me look like I'm an imposter, try and make something out of nothing. I'm just a small investor like you.
I bought on a whim, nothing large, like i said and when i actually researched the share it started to dawn on me it was over priced and due a fall. I think it was John Story who said it was worth more now at 88p than when i bought the share at tuppence or something like that. Something else that turned out to be SO wrong!
The main thing was I also noticed some charting stuff, which indicate a gap, no one here will admit, but I said the sp may take to the gap, anyway got the usual abuse. The gap was hit at 48p , once it was hit so precisely, i followed the charts closely and so far, they have played out a blinder. I am still invested and i aim to buy a whole lot more when the price capitulates and is on its knees.

If I get it wrong its not the end of the world as ill take my chances on the market like everyone else - but it won' be at this price, and only when CHILL pull their finger out and are transparent with regards costs and revenue.

I have already explained i work most shifts in a neurology department attached to an A&E in London. I work via ( NHS run agency) - and have no contract but pay is so much better and I can choose when and how long i work each month. This month was summer holiday so work less, in winter I'm afraid ill be working more.
I retired early from the NHS and set up, with my sons a tourist business which i have also mentioned before distributing to over 80 outlets in London - which was doing very well until Covid arrived. We are only just getting a few orders per week recently - so i wont hold my breath.

Yes, i am, and have always been mildly dyslexic and only discovered this at Uni.
So now you know more about me than my patients .

Back to my original question to the lifers here, and anyone who carers to chip in. What would CHILL need to generate in annual revenue to support a share price of 30p, with a 30% gross profit to CHILL.

Hi Schalf,.
I have bought Chill shares a while ago, nothing massive. I found that the shares were so obviously overvalued and i would mention that the SP would most likely decline, according to charts etc and a few others would occasionally mention it here also.....in retrospect we ere correct but ALL we received at the time was tirade of abuse from the same crew who are here today, who used to control this board. They used to bully any newbies off the board because they felt all newbies were here to harm the company. I pointed a few things out and again nothing but abuse but that does not worry me as i can see most are emotionally in love with this share and will follow it to the happy or bitter end. I prefer to invest, and be more selective in the timings but I choose to continue to post my views alongside others. I honestly welcome other views, but not personal attacks - just shows the true characters of the posters - several I hope to meet up with someday at one of the CHILL party's. The personal attack are made, i think because they don't really have anything to say to people who have different views and outlooks.

Its a Bulletin Board to be used for users who hold differing views. However up until recently it was a one message BB , controlled by several idiots who believed everything they read or heard, from other posters. GL Vas

We are looking for the annual gross revenue with a 30% gross profit. To keep this share at 30p.

The buying will soon dry up ! as soon as they have made a small profit on selling investors back the shares sold last week.

Anyway, we have one person brave enough to come up with an amount of revenue that Chill will need to produce in revenue / profit to keep todays share price afloat. So far we have £12 m / £18 m PA.

Any of the lifers brave enough to have a try?

Thanks markettimer. Just to add there is only a 30% profit margin at best. So need to a turnover of at least £18m to keep us steady.
Plenty of time. You can see where the buying opportunity's are here?

Anyone else have any views they would like to share on this BB ?

For the new posters here, and any other posters whom read this BB but have not yet posted.

There is common belief here that there will be a catalyst at some stage that will reverse the recent decline and shift the CHILL share price up dramatically and put CHILL back in a upwards trend ( fingers crossed).

Would people like to comment on what they think it would take to reverse the present downtrend and have a guess at the possible timescales. If its related to the October quarterly revenue update then what kind of increase in revenue would they feel would be enough to achieve this reversal.
Just so we can get some fresh views, opinions and thoughts on this board.

Thanks Guys. I will look at all these. Cheers Vas

Kevijoy,

Do yourself a favour and have a look at the daily chart - past six months. Is there a pattern regarding share price falls, followed by green days, followed by ? There's no money made in MMs just collecting loads of sells until they own them All. They have to sell them back to YOU at a higher price and then take the SP down, to collect the next tranche of sells to sell back to you at an inflated price, and so on...until we hit, or the company announces a "inflection Point" - when the game changes and buyers get back in control. IMO

Thanks' Shallwe.

I do recall reading about the changing regulations on the horizon, ( not that i fully understand them, yet ) but all really needed to know was that they are obviously in SEEs favour going forward.
If you get a chance can you or someone give me SEEs top top three competitors in the ensuing battle over DMS.

I take it SEYE ( King of DMS) is top competitor?

Cheers Vas

HeresHopin.

When the crew get over excited like this morning - they bite anyone who is not in their pack - regardless of whether the person is on their side or not.
They all get training in some dark place called the TelegramPole. A couple of us here joined recently, only to be shown the door - as our views were unacceptable as our ideas are different from them.
Max was obviously saying the Sp is oversold and is possibly now correcting itself!

Morning Shallwe.

Again thanks for your thoughts, all very useful. Everywhere I look and everything I have read so far points to a very positive outcome here, just don't know when , or what that will be. Mystery tour !, but hopefully in the right direction.
Managed to get myself started this morning at 10.78 p ( approx 49,000) and to top up as we go along. Good to be part of a friendly board, and bare with me while I attempt to understand the industry. Thanks again. Vas

Thanks for your time and thoughts Seeing2030.

HI ALL, I have been reading up on this share recently and will be investing tomoz. Its not really my area and i do find the substance, terminology in the presentations and Cenko notes confusing - but I can clearly see the opportunity here over the next few years very exciting.

With Cenkos reiterating 16p recently can i ask the board.

At what point, and timeline do you think the share price will exceed Cenkos target, and what are your conservative SP projections for this share going forward into 2022 and 23.

Thanks in advance and keep up the excellent posts. Vas