Member Info for VanVan

Our not are. Whoops - sorry.

I forgot to mention our 3rd 100% owned asset which is Karakavak. The licence here is in the process of renewal I believe. Then we will need Forestry Permits, so fairly early stage, but with Ivrindi and Kizilcukur that makes up the three 100% owned assets.
Going back to the all important "non-binding MoU for Salinbas" I think the words from the RNS you should focus on are:-
"be free-carried on further costs associated with the development of the Salinbas Project". That means money to build the mine pure & simple. And this is after the $8m allocated to get the project the Definitive Feasibility Study stage which will include E.I.A., permitting, freehold land acquisition and additional drilling & resource estimation. I would call that Stage One and Mine build Stage Two.
As I understand a "free carried interest" (FCI) means a free participating interest, without the need to contribute to expenditure until commencement of commercial production in our case. I believe they are more commonly used where the State/Government whats an interest and free carry means they don't have to buy their shares or pay their way.
When I was in the one to one with Michael & Kerim on Monday 25th I asked Michael if it was in effect an open cheque arrangement where are new partner finances the mine build. He said that was a good way to describe it although I got the impression the new partner would use finance to leverage the debt. In other words use the borrowed capital to increase the potential return on the investment. I suspect we will need to see the full tri-parite contract before we can draw definitive conclusions, but I'm pretty sure the words "Ariana will be free-carried on further associated costs with the development of the Salinbas Project" are not that ambiguous. Does that help?

This is a post on ADVFN by Biggles who issued the 3% RNS earlier. He has visited the mine.
Michael rang me after meeting to ok the rns regarding my shareholding. I too suggested the interview was very high level and not much detail (I’ve never found proactive investors too in depth tbh). He explained they were thrashing out the detail and they made the decision to declare the MOU at this point with broad outline while working on detail rather than someone leaking and it having an adverse effect on the shareprice. So bottom line is the detail is being worked on while the principle and overall thinking of the company regarding the deal is in the public domain. Not everyone is going to be happy 100% of time and your always going to get different theories . Today we got one about an aggressor coming in to force them into a partnership, this isn’t an aggressor imho it three companies seeing synergy to develop a much larger enterprise , they’ve declared it as is their open style now they need to thrash out detail. So they would find it hard to give something which hasn’t been decided upon.

With respect John I think it is too soon to be advising shareholders to oppose the deal. We only have the broad outline. It would surely be prudent to wait till both sides have completed their Due Diligence. At that time Ariana will share with shareholders the full details ahead of a General Meeting to ratify it.

Someone on ADVFN raised the interesting observation that presumably Proccea also agree this is a good deal and the right way to proceed.

I was referring to our 100% owned assets at Kizicukur & Ivrindi of course. Sorry that wasn’t clear.

Don’t forget Tavsan still has to go through many Turkish loops John including securing the EIA, which includes getting local support, getting the permits, getting the mine Construction permit and of course the difficult ones related to Forestry. There are lots of other smaller ones. I believe circa 20. This is where delays can occur. Open a new mine even with our success record shouldn’t be underestimated. I think it is hoped with our new influential partner doors can be opened. What are you referring to re 100%? Our assets remain ours as far as I know.

It appears from reading the Bulletin Boards (particularly LSE) that there may well be a degree of shareholder nervousness about a few issues and of course the weak share price.
I therefore decided to email Robert Munro and as usual he was quick to respond. That in itself is always comforting.
I will try & paraphrase his reply and hope this direct feedback puts to bed some concerns.
1. I informed him that I had read that issues had been put to the Co. but no response had been forthcoming. He told me he was surprised about this. He was unaware of any queries that were outstanding. But he promised to check their "info@" email address to ensure there aren't any problems with the system.
2. I raised the concern about the extended delays in the new Resource/Reserve and resultant extended Life of Mine statement. He replied saying that the Co. hoped to be making further updates on this in the near future. So obviously delayed,(well we know that!) but no reason to read more into this than that in my opinion. Lets hope near future, means near future!
3. I asked him about an issue which has been raised concerning a potential conflict of interest within the Betts family. This is a quote from a blogger on LSE:- "Betts Metals is part of the Stephen Betts group of companies. So Mr. Betts senior and by default Mr. Dan Betts, our MD, have a fairly substantial conflict of interest. I must admit this was news to me but Robert addressed this issue comprehensively.
First he points out that there is full disclosure in their Audited Accounts with a number of independent non-exec. directors on the board as well. Fair comment.
But importantly he described the system. Apparently all gold produced from Yanfolila mine is sold on at an arms length basis to Auramet International (hxxp://auramet.com/).
As part of the Single Mine Origin (SMO) gold initiative (hxxps://singlemineorigin.com/) a small proportion of the refined gold produced from the Yanfolila mine and sold to Auramet is then purchased from Auramet at market prices by Hummingbird Resources Plc. This is then sold to Stephen Betts and Sons Ltd either in the form of gold grain or investment coins which are then in turn sold on to third party customers. Robert told me that for example the 1 oz Hummingbird gold coin is available (as we know) at hxxps://bettsinvestments.co.uk/product/1oz-hummingbird/. So I can't see anything wrong there. Can you?
So it sounds like shareholders are looking for problems here or perhaps putting 2 & 2 together and making 5. Perhaps understandable when the SP is so weak.
The next set of results and these resource numbers should restore confidence in my opinion.
Well I hope that helps, but if issues are still outstanding do email the Co.

Hi John
Does this mean no more lunches?! I was trying to recall back to the meeting we attended at Panmure Gordon in June and the lunch the three of us had after (with Paul) at Pizza Express near St Paul's Cathedral, to see if I could remember you feeling negative or as they say "over exposed". I do seem to recall all three of us long termers feeling a bit fed up at how long it has taken to create life changing value, but I don't think any of us put any blame at the door of the Company. In fact I guess it is easy to overlook how well it has actually done. Using Hargreaves Lansdown numbers it is up 13% over 3 months, 25% over 6 months, 61% over 1 year and 164% over 5 years. At the presentation, as you commented on at the time, we got the usual bullish explanation of the Salinbas potential, but equally I think the realisation was that to go it alone and take it to production would cost a lot of money and probably take another 10 years. I think the Board and most shareholders would find this prospect rather unpalatable.I would for sure. So the expectation of a J.V. or strategic partner was becoming more and more likely. Now with comments across the board predicting much higher gold prices going into the next decade, underlined the need to get on with it. So when this was announced last Monday and it meant the new partner was primarily providing financial backing, I was delighted. I also liked the new focus on stated ambitions - highly stretching ambitions. I liked the fact that it meant fast tracking, especially with the potential to now add a third mine to the portfolio in the first half of the new decade. (Kiziltepe, Tavsan & Salinbas/Ardale). And excitingly the potential to start seeing what we are sitting on at the southern end of the Hot Gold Corridor.
But as always I expect the devil will be in the detail. For that reason I'm waiting for two things to underpin my current confidence.
1. Full details of the terms which will be put to shareholders ahead of the General Meeting for our approval.
2. A financial assessment, comparing the two strategies. By that I mean looking at the profit generation potentially created by Ariana for both strategies so a logical comparison can be drawn. I've had a go at this based on capital rather than profit , but it isn't robust enough to share! However I'm sure more insight into this will emerge as the details of the deal become ever more understood.
I'm a bit sorry you have jumped now, but fully respect your reasoning and thank you for sharing your reservations. I hope you will retain some for old time sake so you continue to comment on here. How about I buy you lunch next time if this turns out positive and if not you buy me lunch! Just joking. But I'm assuming you must have also identified a stock which you think can perform better in the short term. If this is the case please do share your thoughts with us, if you feel comfortable so doing.
Anyway good luck John whatever you decide

EMR20: 36m @ 2.58% Cu
M203: 53m @ 2.05% Cu
HKL54: 50m @ 1.65% Cu
M200: 64m @ 0.97% Cu
HKL80: 47m @ 1.63% Cu
M35: 85m @ 0.68% Cu
EMR: 48m @ 1.15 g/t Au
EMR20: 36m @ 0.6 g/t Au
EMR34: 8m @ 1.72 g/t Au.
But who is this consistent seller. Four early 250,000 sells this morning. Been at it for ages. Selling into any strength. So annoying. Without that selling pressure, where would we be now? I would love to know who it is?

Thanks. I’ve done so and it is already getting ticked up!

Strangerstill: Thursday 12.08:- would it be ok to post your post onto the Ariana board on ADVFN?

Anyone going to the presentation this evening?

I think that summarises the thinking and advantages of the planned changes very well indeed Strangerstill. Helpful post. I was also thinking about the financing of Tavsan. It would have be a joint venture loan by Zenit for c. $25m (50% Ariana). Now they will presumably only be in effect responsible for 23.5%. I suspect having the clout of a “big” commercial company will also make the sometimes difficult permitting procedure easier.

Anyone see Ariana’s tweet this morning?

Ariana Resources plc (@ArianaResources)
27/11/2019, 20:19
Huge Bets That Gold Could Triple to $4,000 Trade in New York bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

For me there are a couple of other things to add.
1. We have trusted Kerim & team so far and against extraordinary odds they have brought the Co. from nothing to what it is today. I suspect we have no idea how close they were to failure at certain points along this arduous road, particularly in terms of cash in a very hostile market. But that trust is now starting to be rewarded and I see no reason not to continue to trust them to make the right call, the right decisions to not only protect our investments but over the medium term, deliver the growth we all wish for. “Poised for growth”.
2. I don’t think many on here pay much attention to charts and that is probably sensible as the volumes are normally too small to make them meaningful. But it is easy to see an upward trend which it broke out of on Monday. I suspect many then wanted to take profits as we haven’t seen such a big single day move in a very long time. That has pulled the price back to within its more normal trend. It should continue to carry on making steady progress as LTH’s are unlikely to be selling. With so much news due I expect normal service will be restored fairly quickly.
3. I love the fact that they now have a stated Aim. To be one of the premier gold producers in Turkey, which in effect means Europe. We haven’t had anything as tangible as that before. Now we can ask idc, what are the strategies and timescales to deliver that aspiration. It not hard to see how we can be a 150,000 oz pa producer. Say 25000 plus from Kiziltepe ( more with a 2nd Ball Mill and ore perhaps from satellite pits etc) 30000 from Tavsan open pit. How many thousand ozs from the potential 2 underground mines, 50,000 plus from Salinbas/Ardale and perhaps the same from the 2 southern Hot Gold Corridor pits. All to come, but there is no stopping us now.
4. I see the announcement a bit like Dragons Den where the up and coming business seeks capital injection and expertise to make things happen in exchange for a stake. I can’t wait to find out who our “dragon” is!!

I believe Eldorado is one of the n=biggest gold miners in Turkey. Their mine produces I believe in the order of 170,000 ozs p.a. 50,000 ozs from Salinbas/Ardale is just the start. It is easy to see how we could meet that aim producing 150,000 ozs p.a. Did you read my earlier post this afternoon which might also add some light on Monday. Ariana are presenting to shareholders again tomorrow so perhaps a video wasn't felt necessary. Or could the Cyprus news be imminent with them wanting to comment on both at the same time. We shouldn't be limiting our beliefs imo. WE shouldn't be basing it on what has gone before. This is going to be a new world and Ariana is going to rocket into the limelight. Imagine when the actual link with a major is announced. Yes there are still questions, but I'm confident. Kerim is confident. Michael is confident and so is Kieron Hodgson from Panmure Gordon. Ariana with Attitude. Here's to a bright future.

Oh dear John, you sound a bit negative. Must be the winter greyness! Let me try and reassure you on a few points. As I understand the $8m is to get Salinbas to PFS/EIA & permitted status. Obviously it will be worth a lot more in "oven ready" status! Perhaps $80m. If that is Stage One, Stage Two is to build the mine. It states in the RNS Ariana will be free carried on further costs associated with the development of the Salinbas project. Michael confirmed to me on Monday that this is like an open cheque book agreement. How the new partner raises the money is up to them, but it is likely to be finance. Nothing to do with Ariana or Proccea. Ariana will receive $30m in cash in our bank account up front to use as we see fit. A Special dividend, but most retained to fund exploration, development & strategic investments like the imminent Cyprus one. Doing things Ariana do best. Salinbas would have taken us approx. 10 years to get into production. And that would have just been at the northern end of the Hot Gold Corridor. Now it could be there by 2023 and Tavsan by late 2021. So there will probably be over 100,000 ozs produced between the 3 mines by 2023 to start with giving us in effect 25,000 ozs (23.5%) much the same as planned now (Kiz. + Tavsan would have been 55,000 ozs divided by 2.) The financial contributions will be equitable. Proccea will in effect be credited for their expertise and engineering work they bring to the Salinbas/Ardale project equating to c. $6.5m. The current J.V. was always 50/50, but the share of profits was 51/49. You'll find that in the AR & A. The gold prospects in the Hot Gold Corridor (not just Salinbas & Ardale) and in Arzu North, Derya, Arzu South plus 2 underground prospects etc.etc are all highly prospective. As you know Kerim has established the link between Salinbas and Ardale and the two prospects in the south, Derinkoy North & Hizarliyayla have recently been given 10 year licences. We want to get at those asap. Hizarliyayla is just 8km north go Hot Maden and could be even more prospective than Salinbas. There is so much to go for which we haven't had the finance to take forward. Ariana have been prudent to get here, but now they want to take the brakes off supported by a major Co. As they say we are "poised for rapid growth". It is unlikely in my view, given their existing extensive knowledge base that we will be drilling duds. When has Kerim ever done that? What we can do under this deal is really up the drilling programmes and advance the projects much more quickly creating the route to value. With each partner playing to their strengths the whole will be much greater than the sum of the parts. The new partner still has to complete D.D. so there are undoubtably nitty gritty aspects that have yet to be finalised. The final contract will be put to shareholders at a special General Meeting, presumably before the end of February. The joint aim to be a premier gold mining Co in Turkey is very exciting.

Some, me included, have seen Ariana as very much Kerim's baby that he has nurtured carefully for 14 years from inception to a flourishing Co. I was there on Monday both at the presentation and earlier just with Michael & Kerim and asked him if he wasn't a bit sad to be losing his controlling interest. Absolutely not. They are all really excited about the future because it returns them to what they are good at (Exploration & Development)and finding new strategic investments to quickly monetise. But more importantly it is what they are most happy doing. Their raison D'etre. It is clear to me that all the prospects, particularly Red Rabbit & the full Hot Gold Corridor (not just Salinbas & Ardale) contain a lot more gold and silver of course, but it must have been frustrating to only be able to finance small steps at a time. That's going to change big time and the new incoming partner, as someone has already identified, will want a quick return on their investment. The new goal is to become one of the premier gold mining companies operating in Turkey. That would mean circa 150,000 ozs plus a year of gold production to match Eldorado or their like. Somewhere else it says we are now poised for rapid growth. We have all the ingredients to make that a reality. Don't look back, look forward and consider what might now be possible. The whole will be greater than the sum of the parts. By the way Kieron Hodgson was there from Panmure Gordon our brokers. I haven't ever seen him so excited. He was full of praise for what they have achieved and appeared very confident about the Co's future.

There is actually a lot of news due over the next 3 months.
I guess the first will be on Cyprus. Then drill results from Arzu South leading to a new Resource, Reserve & extended life of mine. We will also find out if underground mining is feasible. I believe there are other drill results due as well . In January we get the preliminaries for Q4 and that concludes the year. The new deal will be sorted by end of February leading to a shareholder general meeting. The Tavsan process will be well underway in January and I’m sure we will get a progress report on that. The chairman ‘s work on how to facilitate dividend payments is underway and I expect that will be reported on early in the new year in line with the potential for a special dividend under the new deal resulting in $30m coming into the Ariana account. If I thought hard enough I could probably come up with more. Is that enough to keep the kettle boiling?