Member Info for VanVan

Last week I had to wait a week for a special dividend from Billing Services. I don’t think this is therefore that unusual having spoken to Hargreaves Lansdown. No need to fret unless we aren’t paid by Friday imo.

Are we in the right place at the right time?
Coronavirus antibody tests to be rolled out across the country.
THE whole country will be able to get an antibody test soon as Health Secretary Matt Han**** outlined how the Government will extend the system across the UK.

952000 buy at 14.42 @ 4.199p. Let’s have a few more like that.

But do we know anything about a Phase 3 trial? How much would that cost?
When could it start and how long would it take to conduct, analyse the results and get formal approval? 12 months or more? Are we getting ahead of ourselves? Hope someone who knows about these things can put my hat straight.

I new here so trying to understand if the Board and prime movers are quality with a proven track record. I like the fact that the Co Founders have 19% skin in the game, have successfully reduced costs, and apparently integrated the businesses using home grown talent. But is there any other evidence of their talent . As a minnow they are now playing with the big boys and as such will need their wits about them. Do they have the experience and skills to do this?

Can you tell us more I wonder?

The question is do you make money trading. They say and I can’t quote the exact number, but most lose money trading. I’ve found it is generally a game of patience built on solid research into basic fundamentals. I have a tick list to go through and seek out red flags. I don’t think any share can be devoid totally of any red flags but then the balance of risk comes into play. Two of the key ones I look for on the positive side are quality of the mgmt. and a proven delivery record and if they have skin in the game.

I was fascinated by how people think differently. I started investing here probably 10 years ago but accumulated big time once it retraced to under a 1p a few years ago. I think in terms of years, not months, days or hours! And the same with gold. It isn't going south imo. You get overbought positions and corrections but the fundamentals support higher prices of gold, silver and gold miners imo. Let the traders do what they want but here the story is getting stronger and the outlook over the next 5 years is in the multi bagger category imo. Very happy to remain long & strong as they say.

I think everyone has always been careful to refer to CAPEX loans being repaid. Working Capital facilities are normal for most businesses. However in Turkey they are constructed slightly differently as they operate more like a loan with a set repayment term.
We are only responsible for 50% of the outstanding amount of course.

In sterling circa £192,000

Excludes finance costs of course. Working capital loan of $8.5m to be repaid by Oct 2021. So about 18 months for 50% equals $236,000 per month.

Anyone got the latest Somerville article (released today) from share prophets re Ariana and Centamin?

Interactive Investor have an interview with Kerim, John Meyer (SP Angel) and Pure Gold discussing gold & their Co?s. On twitter today.

My twitter post:-
Hod Maden -
surely one of the highest grade gold projects in the world. Ariana Resources (AAU) is in a unique position owning 3 licences north of Hod Maden in the very prospective underdeveloped Hot Gold Corridor. New 3rd party conducting DD on back of an MoU. Watch this space.

Hopefully not too long till we find out for sure Ash.

05-09 14:57 Kerim:
watch this space John! We will have more news on Tavsan in due course and your LoM question will be answered then...

05-09 14:59 Plasybryn:
Can you add any more detail/thoughts on about the underground story. Can you help us envisage what the potential end game is here or is it too early to say?

05-09 15:01 Kerim:
It is a little early to say specifically. What I can say is that the current resource block model extends significantly below the current Arzu South pit and along its NW extension. So much so that we probably have perhaps double the total Arzu South resource which cannot currently be mined by open-pit methods. That seems like an awful lot of gold to leave behind! And that is based on what we already know...

05-09 15:04 Plasybryn:
Thanks Kerim. Will our other 100% assets at Karakavak, Ivrindi & Kizilcukur all fall within the new J.V. Deal if it goes ahead please?
05-09 15:06 Kerim:
The other assets (e.g. Kizilcukur) have also been considered as part of the enlarged JV and have formed apart of the DD by the incoming party (though to a lesser extent understandably). The MoU considers their eventual sale in to the enlarged JV.

05-09 15:06 Plasybryn:
As part of the D.D., do the new potential third party also investigate our other prospective assets in the Hot Gold Corridor like Hizarlyayla?

05-09 15:08 Kerim:
For those after T-shirts I am going to have to borrow from the Henry Ford quote - "any colour that you want, so long as it is navy blue!"

05-09 15:09 Kerim:
The whole Salinbas project was reviewed, specifically Salinbas itself plus the porphyry at Ardala. Prospects such as Hizarliyayla do not have sufficient data (i.e. drilling) to be able to complete an evaluation. They are of course part of the mix and certainly represent exploration upside.

05-09 15:13 Plasybryn:
Thanks Kerim. In a normal non virus year, we would probably have started a drill programme at Salinbas/Ardale in May once the snows are gone. Do we have any plans to do so this year, or is the focus for now on getting the second mine at Tavsan into production? Thanks

05-09 15:14 Kerim:
Well given that we cleared the Salinbas licence renewal last year, it was my hope to have been drilling at the project by September, but the current circumstances have easily added 6 months to our timelines.

05-09 15:15 Kerim:
In the meantime we are continuing to focus on what we can sensibly achieve on project development for Kiziltepe and Tavsan. There are already exciting developments on this front, most recently the resource update for Kiziltepe but with more to come!

05-09 15:23 Plasybryn:
Sounds very good Kerim. Looking forward to seeing the Tavsan Mine Schedule etc. All the best to you both. Hope today brings lots of interest. Nice to see Nigel Somerville has AAU as one of his tips and Tom Winnifrith was very positive as well. Signing off.

05-09 15:25 Kerim:
OK thanks John. All the best and thanks for the support! Cheer

05-09 14:41 Plasybryn:
Hi Kerim - hope you are doing ok in Australia. Yes put me down for a Polo shirt - navy blue please! Great I/v with Tom. I think he was right to focus on Resources/Reserves. Nigel Somerville in his tip for AAU said he thought LofM could go to 15 yrs. Any thoughts?

05-09 14:42 thechurch333:
Great, thanks

05-09 14:45 Plasybryn:
Kerim - Re: the dividend, I understand that you can't yet commit to a firm strategy, but of course if the deal goes through there is a good chance, I believe, of a one off special? Yes?

05-09 14:46 Kerim:
Hi John. All well here in Perth. WA along with the NT and New Zealand got on top of the issue by shutting borders very quickly and introducing mandatory 14 day quarantines. As a result case levels here have dropped to minimal levels. Shows the power of border controls! Anyway - I will certainly put you down for a polo shirt, just tell me your size. In terms of resources/reserves there is still much work to do to continue to expand these at Kiziltepe, but the latest update demonstrates the positive trajectory. We should do 6 more years based on current resources, then if we start converting our Exploration Targets to resources and reserves, we will probably add a few more years yet. I have long stated that I believe we have a +10 year total mine life. Time will tell and a lot depends on keeping up the pace on drilling...

05-09 14:47 speaker:
what is the time scale for tavsn to be in production please

05-09 14:47 Kerim:
Yes - in terms of dividend - if we pull off the deal our intention is to do a one off special.

05-09 14:50 Kerim:
The development timeline for Tavsan is contingent on securing our EIA positive approval, which is currently with the authorities. If we secure the approval and the necessary forestry permits don't hold us back three years (as with Kiziltepe!) then we could see ourselves moving towards production in late 2021.

05-09 14:50 Michael:
Hi all Michael here from Ariana

05-09 14:51 Plasybryn:
Hi Michael. Can you say roughly when the Annual Report & Accounts will be produced? Will they be earlier this year now we have new Accountants?

05-09 14:52 Michael:
Hi John, we do have new auditors and that side is going well, we cannot yet be sure on other timings as certain things now take longer due to lockdown.

05-09 14:53 Plasybryn:
Kerim - Did you manage to complete the necessary meetings with the locals as part of the Tavsan EIA procedure pre lockdown?

05-09 14:55 Kerim:
The EIA is currently on track and our requirements were met. If it were not for the limitations imposed by current circumstances (with Ministries largely grinding to a halt in Turkey) we would expect to clear the EIA during the Summer.

05-09 14:56 Plasybryn:
Thats great news. A production target of late 2021 for Tavsan producing an additional 30,000 ozs p.a. is also very exciting. The IRR was very sexy at a much lower gold price I believe. What will the LofM be for Tavsan?

05-09 14:14 Kerim:
Proccea will be earning in to Salinbas during the period of the earn-in by the incoming party. Proccea will also be managing the enlarged JV and its individual projects. The value of their financial contribution in this sense is similar to the incoming party at the moment of earn-in commencement. The management terms will be specified in the JV documentation.

05-09 14:15 Kerim:
OK - I will put you down for a T-shirt! Going like hot cakes...

05-09 14:17 Paul280i:
Can I assume shareholders will have a vote on the JV agreement? I don't remember voting on the JV with Proccea.

05-09 14:17 thechurch333:
Thanks. What additional financial investment will Ariana need to make in the proposed new structure to get Salinbas to production?

05-09 14:21 Kerim:
Our MoU specifies that the deal is contingent on shareholder approval if required. This applies to Ariana as much as it does to the incoming party and its shareholders. At the time we did the deal with Proccea in 2010 and due to the earn-in arrangement, there was no requirement for shareholder approval.

05-09 14:22 Kerim:
The MoU specifies that the partners must seek bank or alternative finance for the development of Salinbas after the feasibility study is completed.

05-09 14:24 thechurch333:
thanks. More broadly can you give a ballpark indication of the proportion of the RR JV cash flows over say the next 3 years that will be paid out in dividends to the JV shareholders?
05-09 14:26 Kerim:
It is not possible for me to provide a figure at this time. There are several variables, not least ensuring we have achieved a distributable reserve in our PLC financials.

05-09 14:27 Paul280i:
Kerim, would you envisage that loan being repaid out of the income from Salinbas or could it be a drain on profits from RR and impact on ANY dividend paid to Ariana shareholders?

05-09 14:29 Kerim:
If we secured a loan to build Salinbas, the cashflows from that project would be used to pay down that loan. The loan terms would probably be similar to those we secured for Kiziltepe, in that the project hard assets are effectively mortgaged to the bank until the loan is fully repaid.

05-09 14:32 thechurch333:
Thanks. My question was really about the JV remitting dividends to Ariana. As TW pointed out in the interview the RR JV should generate a lot of free cash flow in the next few years. I just wanted to check that this cash would be remitted back to Ariana PLC

05-09 14:37 Kerim:
As we have done over the last few years, the JV has remitted some excess cashflow back to Ariana, in repayment of intracompany loans initially and later as dividends. To date this has totalled over US$7 million. A large part of the cashflow over this period is used operationally for Ariana's requirements across its non-Red Rabbit portfolio. In the future as proportionately more RR cashflow is no longer required for the repayment of debt, there would expect there to be more flowing back to the PLC

05-09 13:43 Paul280i:
In the latest drill results from Arzue South deep drilling, did I understand right that there was mineralisation at the bottom of the 200 mtr hole.

05-09 13:43 Kerim:
OK. Send me your sizes and I will work up a list! Never thought Ariana would have its own line in fashion!

05-09 13:46 Kerim:
The first drill hole intercepted quartz vein mineralisation at about 170m down-hole. It is now our deepest vein intercept in the southern extension of the Arzu South Vein, demonstrating structural continuity to depth.

05-09 13:46 Kerim:
The hole itself continued to 200m, so that we had drill core well in to the footwall of the vein.

05-09 13:48 PUTNEYWILL:
Hi Kerim, at what price would gold have to get to before the JV deal became a bad deal for ariana?

05-09 13:49 Paul280i:
Is it possible that that vein continues under Arzu central into Arzu north?

05-09 13:50 Kerim:
The gold price on its own would not dictate the "doability" of the deal. Either way, we would be beneficiaries of a rising gold price and to have the benefit of a strong partnership with financially deep pockets and local clout, is the main driver to getting the deal done.

05-09 13:51 Kerim:
The Arzu Vein system has already been proven to continue all the way through Arzu Central. We intercepted the structure in drilling we completed in 2015/16. However we need more drilling, testing deeper levels to demonstrate that there is a resource that may be capable of being extracted economically.

05-09 13:57 Paul280i:
Are you confident that there will not need to be a further extension of the new JV agreement beyond the end of June?

05-09 13:58 Kerim:
Under current circumstances it is difficult to say but I expect that we would have an answer one way or the other by then.

05-09 14:02 Carcosa:
Some have questioned the value of Panmure Gordon, Has recent corporate developments shown their value at all e.g. In discussions with the unnamed proposed partner?

05-09 14:06 Kerim:
Corporate developments have always been managed by the company. The role of the broker is different. PG are one of the better brokers out there and we are glad to be working with them.

05-09 14:05 PUTNEYWILL:
Sorry, Kerim forgot to mention have you considered minting a few ariana coins for shareholders to buy?

05-09 14:08 Kerim:
There was once a time that we would have loved to have gone in to the business of minting our own coins and it was something we investigated. However, since the Turkish Central Bank has become the only buyer by default, this is no longer a possibility. We can only dream about what the Ariana Coin would have looked like!

05-09 14:09 thechurch333:
Kerim, can you please clarify what Proccea will be providing financially to gain an interest in Salinbas? Thanks

05-09 14:12 PUTNEYWILL:
ok, shame but completely understand. I see hummingbird do one and I have a much bigger stake in Ariana so may have to opt for a t-shirt

I'm sure won't mind me copying this here. Lots of topics covered.
If anyone wants to spend a bit of lockdown time this is the Q & A from yesterday. I've omitted some of the general chat.

SM:
Hi Kerim - is there any particular impact on the company’s on-the-ground progress from current situation in Turkey

05-09 13:24 Paul280i:
I hope you are well. With the new JV at Salinbas are you happy that the new partner will progress the development of the resource and not just ignore it as happened with Eldorado?

05-09 13:27 Kerim:
Hi SM. There is no unusual impact on operations currently. We have special exemptions to be able to continue operating. We have reduced active staff numbers present on site, with perhaps a third either working from home or on leave. In terms of mining/processing all continues as normal.

05-09 13:28 Kerim:
Hi again Paul. The proposed new partner is quite a different entity to Eldorado, with different objectives. They do not have current mining interests, although they have a desire to become involved in the sector. Consequently doing a JV with us becomes their fast track in to the sector with a capable exploration and mining team from Day 1.

05-09 13:31 Paul280i:
Do you have a time scale for developing Salinbas to an operating mine?

05-09 13:33 Kerim:
It would take about three years to work through the resource drilling, feasibility and EIA. Permitting, as always, is more of an unknown and this could add to the timeline. It is a big project and would be more complex in terms of the engineering challenge in comparison to Kiziltepe.

05-09 13:34 Paul280i:
Are you happy to be losing control of the RR project and are there safeguards being built into the agreement to protect our minority interests?

05-09 13:34 Kerim:
But the exploration upside is there to warrant such a challenge. We are ultimately located in a district with huge exploration upside.

05-09 13:35 Kerim:
Yes the MoU considers the minority interests and there would be full minority protections in place.

05-09 13:36 Paul280i:
Do you have a plan B if this JV doesn't get approved?

05-09 13:38 Kerim:
Plan B is to continue with Red Rabbit as is and potentially partner with Proccea only on Salinbas. However, this would mean that we would have to slow burn Salinbas for longer.

05-09 13:39 Kerim:
Obviously this would be a less advantageous result because exploration assets - if they are not being worked actively - are a potential drain on company resources.

05-09 13:39 Paul280i:
One pressing question that is worrying shareholders is: Where can we buy the Ariana logo Polo shirts?

05-09 13:41 Kerim:
Well our last edition polo shirts were manufactured in Australia, about 5 years ago. I am in Perth now, so perhaps now its time for us to bring out a new line! Will investigate and happy to make them available to buy if there really is interest out there!

05-09 13:42 Paul280i:
I'll have one and so will John G.!