Win Win29 Jun 2020 10:56
Forgive me, but I've been trying to think how Kerim might be seeing matters and why he might be relaxed time wise regarding our new prospective partner.
Let's say he expects gold to rise in value to c. $4000 per oz over the next few years. I certainly do. During that timescale he will increase production from the existing J.V.with the second mine at Tavsan coming on line in 2022 from 20,000 ozs p.a. to circa 50,000 ozs p.a. Could even be a bit more than that perhaps. That means 25,000 ozs for us. Let's take off say $700 per oz AISC (on the high side) and we have a profit of circa £2600 per oz ($4000-$700=$3300 coverts to £2671).
Multiple that by 25,000 and you have a bottom line profit of £65m. Divide that by the number of shares in issue, namely 1060m and you have EPS of 6p. You decide what multiple the valuation should be on, but Kerim has 19.56m shares so that's a fair wad. And that's before he develops the highly prospective Hot Gold Corridor which could easily double that wealth or more over the next decade. Then there is unknown Cyprus. Everyone is getting very bullish on copper with the electric revolution. As such at 44 years old I can see that he has time on his side and a very nice future mapped out. Basically he can afford to take his time to align outcomes with a positive re-rating of gold, silver & copper. I know Michael is 57, but perhaps he will be happy with nice dividend payouts.
I must admit Kerim is sitting in a very nice position. He has a brilliant future with the existing set up, but if he chooses to bring in the new partner and accelerate everything, he knows the timing of production in the Hot Gold Corridor will be aligned with high gold prices probably giving him more wealth and a great deal of credibility and status to go with it. Remember the RNS words. "J.V. capable of unlocking the full value of our assets in Turkey" - "become one of the premier gold mining companies operating in Turkey". At my age I hope he goes for the deal, but as we've all said we are in a win win situation here. Good luck