Member Info for VanVan

jupiternmars that is a great interview. There is so much going on with Ariana and so much of it is coming to fruition over the next couple of years. I a strong gold & silver environment things couldn't be better. And of course we could be adding copper to our bow as well with the potential in Cyprus to exploit.

Are you all hooked up to the Investor Meet Company webinar starting 10 o'clock tomorrow.
You can submit questions in advance or during the session.

Investor Meet Company is a digital platform, that provides individual investors direct access to UK Listed companies for live, interactive management presentations.

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5f215e3d65023062edd7d1fd/ariana-resources-full-year-results

Also a BRR Media interview with Rosy

Fair do's ASH. I hope you also get time idc to update you 20/21 projections based on these much higher gold & silver prices. It would be interesting to see what the show up as EPS both pre & post Deal perhaps!

ASH do you plan to register for "Investor Meet Company" - 10 o'clock 30th July Webinar and raise those points in the Q & A session?

It was interesting to see the impact in the accounts of silver production up 73% from $3.4m revenue to $5.9m. Production increased by 50% . Just imagine the contribution from silver credits this year if the price holds up. The price of silver is up c. 37% in the last 6 months alone. Over the same period gold is up circa 24%

Thanks - why would you think that. Strange that Kerim's drawing are down. He must have worked hard this year. Did he miss a target?

Ash: Could we copy it across to ADVFN?

Great insightful post ASH . Thanks

Part 2 -

Having said that, and readers might wish to take a bit off the table at around 5p too, in the current environment it seems to me that gold is almost a no-lose gamble. With government bonds offering return-free risk, gold seems to offer risk-free return right now! So I expect gold to head a good bit higher from here, even if there is a bit of a sell-off in the shorter term to balance out the recent gains (I would view any sell-off as a buying opportunity).

With Ariana set to get two further mines going in the coming years, a stack of cold, hard cash and an ongoing income stream from Kiziltepe, everything points to further share price progress and even discounting the cashflow massively from the three mines, the likelihood of the two new mines and a further 10% a year on what Ariana currently has proved up, I still could not reach a valuation below 5.6p per share. As gold goes up and the risk comes down, there is surely still tremendous upside to be had.

So the current stance is hold, to sell a few at 5p if you want and then hold tightly, for the top of this run could easily breach 10p and maybe more, if the gold price plays ball.

My I phone does funny things with some of the text. Doesn’t happen on my AppleMac computer. But as I’m away in Wales I have no option. So apologies for anything that becomes hard to
understand. Here you go (*************) - Shares in Turkish gold-producer Ariana (AAU) closed 8.2% higher yesterday at 4.6p – the highest close for eight and a half years and breaking through a line of resistance at 4.25p which has been in place since mid-May. So is it a buy, sell or hold?

The portents are good: Ariana’s Head Honcho, Kerim Sener, told us on 29th June that our auditors PKF Littlejohn LLP are working on completing the final Group audit in July 2020 which means that barring accidents we should have those numbers next week. Judging by yesterday’s share price action, perhaps some people think that those numbers will be with us first thing on Monday morning and that the news will be very good.

As things stand – before the proposed corporate action to reduce Ariana’s Turkish exposure to 23.5% in return for $30 million in cash – plus an additional bonus from JV  partner Proccea as yet unspecified – Ariana’s Kiziltepe plant held in the existing JV with Proccea is chucking out around 20,000 oz gold a year at an average cash cost of about $550. That latter figure is expected to rise a little in the coming years, but with the gold price having breached the $1900 per oz mark yesterday and now within $20 of its all-time high, and the main bank loan to build the plant paid off, you can do the maths here: Ariana and Proccea will surely be coining it.

And there are new plants at Tavsan and Salinbas in the pipeline, both of which will be debt funded so there is no dilution ahoy..

Ariana’s FY numbers will be interesting, but so will further news on the proposed corporate action. In particular, we were being promised a special dividend on completion (slightly complicated by a capital restructure needed to allow dividend payments, which is likely to delay any shareholder reward into Q3 or Q4). But perhaps Ariana will shed further light on this in its FY results statement.

Also news on Ariana’s current cash position could provide a little upside: if Kiziltepe is throwing off loads of cash, surely some of it will be heading into Ariana’s coffers eventually.

With Ariana’s shares showing distinct signs of life, my 4.5p limit buy mark has been taken out. I hope any that wanted to. managed to get in.

Now my attention turns to the 5p mark, when I will be offloading some additional stock I picked up after proposed new JV partner Ozaltin committed to the proposed corporate action but Ariana’s shares declined. I had far too much Ariana stock already, but simply could not resist. At 5p it will be time to get rid of those extra shares: it is all very well having a good share, but one does have to consider position size relative to the rest of my portfolio too, and the position size is already screaming red at me.

More to follow.

I’ve experienced something very similar at EMED when Harry was in charge. A leopard doesn’t change his spots and all that. He seems very plausible and convincing but I won’t be rushing to invest in another Co s with him at the helm. He’s done ok taking good drawings etc no doubt. As you say watch what directors do. If it’s good value they buy the shares ; if not they make execuses like there is no available window to buy. We will when we are allowed. Exercise care imo.

Does anyone have recent experience of their services?

His latest Note is on the ADVFN thread. Worth a read.

Thanks for your kind comments. I’m away at present so all from memory! I recall the $8m is to get the new JV to EIA status with Salinbas. I believe it could be suggested that this $8 could turn a 10 times return on investment . That is with the EIA etc the $8 is turned into $80m. The new partner will want a quick return on their investment.

Listened to Tom Winnifrith interview Kerim today on MineProphets. This is my subsequent post on ADVFN.
Nice session with Kerim on Mine Prophets. He confirmed that the market seems to have missed the point that Proccea may use cash in full or part to buy into Salinbas. Even more cash for Ariana! Perhaps the $30m could be $35m.
Tom/Kerim also drew peoples attention to the Panmure Gordon Valuation matrix which even pre deal has a target of 5.92p @1700 gold & 7.21p at $2000 gold.(10% discount).
Apparently a new Note is being worked on which I expect will be revised in line with Deal confirmation. He was very complimentary on Kieron Hodgson & Panmure Gordon.
He said Institutions would like to "buy in" but only via a Placing and that wasn't on offer. Buying in via the market pushes the share price up and is not something they are keen to do. He said it was easier for Turkish Institutions who don't perceive the Turkey risk that some do in the UK.
Going back to the shareholding chart recently posted , Kerim confirmed his holding as 19.564m. He did not recognise the other 3.8m shown as we thought.
Underground Mine at Red Rabbit. He said a 3300m drilling programme has been completed a week ago. ASSAY results are expected over the next 2 weeks followed by a period of time for the Co. to evaluate. So not that far away!. Will this indicate another new mine? Will it need more processing capacity? How much will it cost (Tom said debt funded) and will it extend the Red Rabbit life of mine. All very exciting stuff potentially.
Dividend: Again confirmed their intentions. It sounds like they won't start the Court approval on distributable reserves until the Deal is concluded. Kerim said if all aligns still expect the Special Dividend in Q4.
The JV has completed a Pre Feasibility Study for Tavsan & the EIA is being finished. More news to follow here of course.
He talked positively about Cyprus. I asked him what being a premier gold mining Co. in Turkey meant that was quoted in the original MoU RNS. He said this was basically having three operating mines which is where we will be. Kiziltepe, Tavsan & Salinbas. If it proceeds, would the U/G mine count as 4 and would Hizarliyayla count as 5. Dream on!
He explained the relevance of the Porphyry Systems in the Hot Gold Corridor and the fact it often indicates high grade deposits in the vaccinty.
This interview and others are available till year end so might be worth paying the premium and having a listen.
Probably missed out lots of other points, but hope this does for a starter.

Will we get news ahead of the Saturday show?
Not sure but I hope to be linked in to this. Hopefully Kerim will be on good form.
The show is at: https://www.mineprophets.com
The event is on Saturday and Ariana are involved.

I agree Ash. Possibly plenty sitting on sidelines for the next trigger. Plenty of tasty news to come just a bit of patience I guess.

Crossfire on ADVFN said this about the Chart -" that's a lovely continuation, slightly ascending, wedge / pennant / flag whatever. Keep forgetting the difference, but one of the most reliable patterns in charting to my knowledge. Nice and long. This is going to burst out higher pretty soon IMO." Hope he/she doesn't mind me copying that across.