Member Info for VanVan

Courtesy of buzzy_s posted on ADVFN. Agreed for me to share it here. He is interested to see if anyone has any better numbers.

Credit to Denziiil for highlighting the cost per tonne of pellets, which I'd originally failed to account for.

That's the approx pre-tax profit for Q1. I'm not sure what the tax figure will be. Probably a higher percentage than 2020 (15% of operating profit), and 2019 (12.2%).

It is pure guesswork, but let's say 20% tax. Hopefully a bit lower in reality.

That would give a net profit, after tax, of $313m for Q1. EPS of 53c / 38p.

The pellet price is currently $22 higher than Q1 average.

It's exciting to predict Q2, and especially Q3 and Q4 results (when production will be increased to 13m tonnes/year)...

Q2 same production as Q1 at average price of $262:

Revenue $711,068,000. Pre-tax profit $425,787,000.

Q3 at increased production of 3.25m tonnes @ $262:

Revenue $851,500,000. Pre-tax profit $509,878,000.

Q4 same as Q3:

Revenue $851,500,000. Pre-tax profit $509,878,000.

That would give annual results of:

Revenue $3,067,531,000

Operating Profit (pre tax) $1,836,837,563

Profit after tax @ say 20% $1,469,470,050

EPS (pre tax) $3.12 / £2.26

EPS (after tax) $2.50 / £1.81

Annual earnings of £1.81 per share, after tax, if nothing changes from here. I'll be reinvesting my dividend on 15th April :)

It feels the market has priced in about a 75% fall in iron ore prices for FXPO !!! I feel it's very very wrong. Valuing FXPO on a P/E of 2 at current prices, and possibly a P/E of 1.5 for next year, is nuts. Best value share in London. That's before taking into account a 15% and fast-rising dividend. Might be paying dividends of £1 per share in a couple of years.

Did we come out of winter hibernation?
Is there movement?

Just wish I could hear every word. I do struggle a bit. Might be me.
But yes great stuff.
So bullish
ORPHPharma.com!!
1 or 2 monetisation spin off non core announcements in April
C.F. hard lock in to June 2021 but wants to increase his holding.
Spin-offs are included in the $1billion target.
4th Non Core asset to be monetised by Xmas?

CF is on now

Anyone know what time C.F. is on tonight please?

The latest dividend has been paid Net without the Australian Tax being deducted. Great news. I overlooked this in the recent RNS which said:-
Conduit Foreign Income

The FY21 Half-Year Dividend will be wholly paid from Conduit Foreign Income. Accordingly, non-Australian resident depositary interest holders will not be subject to any Australian dividend withholding tax on the FY21 Half-Year Dividend.

They have obviously listened to disgruntled shareholders!! Well done BASE Resources

Not only the end of the week but also the end of the financial year.

On April 6th 2019, the mid share price was 1.85p - on April 6th 2020, the mid price was 2.90p which is a rise of 57%.

We finished this financial year on 4.35p which is a rise of exactly 50%. It was even better at times during the year but 50% is a very good return nevertheless.

So a good year, but not quite as good as the previous one, which may come as a surprise to some people. A 50% rise in this financial year would take us to around 6.5p - I would be quite happy with that.

Deepsurvey: How can you say so categorically that there is going to be a sharp fall in the price of gold & silver. I doubt even the very best Analysts could be that confident. For me it is 50/50 which way it goes short term, but I do agree my money would be on over $2000 per oz by Christmas, if not before. If we were in a free market, it would be higher now due to currency dilution, but we know the manipulators try to manage it so not to harm the US$.

As you say "trade" Ariana is also looking to diversify so going forward will be less reliant on just Turkey. Cyprus and now Eastern Europe goals in its sight. Monetising the Turkish assets, as it has done, is also a step in de-risking exposure top Turkey of course. And diversified in terms of miners - Gold, Silver, Copper and perhaps others. It has already made a good return on Australian Lithium.

Ariana is not a gold or silver exporter. The Turkish Govt. buy it all and provide instant payment, which Ariana convert into US $ so I believe. As said, when you compare Turkey to investing in the likes of Zimbabwe, Congo, DRC, perhaps Ukraine, Venezuela, etc. it seems pretty "safe" to me! In normal times, it is where millions of Brits. love to holiday and even buy holiday homes. I can't see that happening in Zimbabwe! There is a lot of anti Ergoden sentiment in the West as he hardly toes their line, but without him, Europe would be facing a refugee catastrophe. The level of support Turkey has received to house and protect the Serbian refugees is appalling .
But Turkey is very mineral rich and intends to support miners to exploit this "in house" wealth as it has now publicly stated. It is also very strategically placed and will always therefore demand respect. If there is Investor negative sentiment it appears unbalanced and no doubt influenced by western propaganda. Any visit to the Country will show how modern and impressive the infrastructure is. Look at the projects being undertaken by Ozaltin. Just a matter of getting things in perspective imo.

It’s interesting that they never mention Turkey’s gold accumulation program. They have been buying gold for years, in fact Ariana is required to sell all its gold to Turkey.
If you look at the GDP ratios to debt, Turkey’s is only slightly behind Germany and one of the best in Europe- a lot better than the U.K., EU or USA as I recall. The fall in the value of the Turkish lira reduces our operational costs which are already some of the lowest globally. Finally in the U.K. , EU and USA we nowadays just print more money (QE) borrowing it from ourselves with no interest and with no repayment terms. Why can’t Turkey follow the new magic money tree economics or am I being naive?

Did anyone get theirs refunded. We’ve submitted the required forms etc. back in October but not even had an acknowledgement. Very poor.

Great photo just posted on Twitter by the Co.
“NW end of the Arzu North pit showing the main and subsidiary veins (light orange colour), widening at depth!”#AAU #gold #mine

The charts are starting to look positive.
Our esteemed CEO has bought more shares
The massive special payout isn’t far away
Buying has resumed and the SP is ticking up nicely
Buy at these bargain, over sold prices?
DYOR

I'm told they understand the market and potential better State side. Will catch on here soon enough.

I've done the same, but in fact twice this morning! I see this as being just the start of something big.

I agree the selling at 0.20 was to be expected. Many long term holders probably been waiting 3 years for this moment. But the strategy is new, the Co. is brilliantly positioned and has first mover advantage. This could turn out to be an exceptional opportunity to ride this new, evolving, growth NFT market. History shows what can happen with new markets as Malcolm discusses in his interview with Alan Green.

A must listen new interview with Malcolm and Alan Green - 25 mins. All sounds very positive. Coinsillium right at the centre of this new NFT market. Exciting times. I doubt Coinsillium is understood yet.
Has cash till 2022. Opportunities coming towards them however bigger than they expected even last December.
Coinsillium going to ride the NFT wave in a very sustainable way.
Building long term value for shareholders.
Revenues from Stamp initiative not yet available. Will obviously be report on the revenues.
Gold rush - Coinsillium there with the picks & shovels.

Kerim has voiced he has £25m on the balance sheet . 50% of this after fees & taxes should be paid to shareholders. There is a court hearing tomorrow with supposedly capital reduction approved on 30th March. He says the 19000 ozs is nominal which sounds very soft. I would have made more of the silver element- missed opportunity. Bit surprised the new small, short term loan wasn’t announced in an RNS. I suspect for financial efficiency/tax reasons this is how they prefer to finance it. Don’t see that as any sort of an issue.

No problem- glad you did.