Member Info for ValueS

I was freaked out how weird this BB turned out today. One post talking about filling pipes, another about necrophilia, so I thought " If you can't beat them join them!"

Https://www.reverbnation.com/charliehorse9/song/25495643-the-nechrophiliac

The spread is too large for short term traders! Good!

14-Aug-24 08:49:35 125.95 63,512 Buy

Worth £80,000!

Someone is optimistic.

Best Regards ValueS

There is also c. $121 m of unpaid costs within the $151 m of unpaid invoices. I think by December 24 when usually there is an update, we'll learn the faith of these.

Best Regards ValueS

"Who's got the cajones to buy more?"

According to today's RNS, Liberty seems to have plenty of it. They bought 95 m more VOD shares and popped up just above 5%. Let's wish them good luck.

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BB, I think this gives the ICG a good opportunity to export the well known Kirkuk grade again. As well as to enable the ICG to feed the oil refineries in the North and Middle of the country from locally produced Crude-Oil rather than having to pump Southern oil(s) through the strategic pipeline all the way up to Beiji.

Best Regards ValueS

"Iraq’s breaches of the quota have been over too long a period and by non-trivial amounts for OPEC to ignore. I will be focussing on trying to get a handle on how serious they are this time to “encourage” compliance."

@theoryman, overall OPEC is underproducing as far as I know because some members are unable to meet their own quotas. In past years Iraq seems to have escaped the consequences, apart from a slap in the wrist. I don't think it'll be different this year.

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Meshtrader

Thanks for the table. From which I noted that the group adjusted EBITDaL has improved from €2,626 m to €2,681 m, a +€55 m. But I also noted that depreciation and amortisation has also increased from €1,776 m to €1,847 m, a -€71 m which dwarfs the improvement in EBITDaL!. In addition, there is an increase in restructuring costs from €16 m to €38 m, another -€22 m! Yes, the improvement in cashflow is great, a +€144 m, but look at the footnote regarding that:

"Note: We don't know the size of amortisation. So the above cashflow calculation doesn't take that into account."

Best Regards ValueS

Well, even going with your table (EBITDaL, whatever that means!), look at the (other income) which is the last line and it reports a whopping €590 m for Q1Y25. Where did that come from?

Best Regards ValueS

It is profit that matters, not revenue! From the RNS:

"Operating profit increased by 42.9% to €1.5 billion, primarily driven by a €0.7 billion gain on the disposal of an 18% stake in Indus Towers, leaving Vodafone with a 3.1% shareholding"

So if the one off €0.7 B of profit from Indus Towers sale transaction is stripped out, the operating profit (from normal operations) has actually dropped by 21.8% in the quarter when compared to the corresponding quarter last year, not increased by 42.9% as reported.

Best Regards ValueS

There are many other examples:

Compare the 15/05 RNS with that in 22/05. A difference of c. 22 m shares.

Compare the 22/05 RNS with that in 31/05. Adifference of a whopping c. 84 m shares.

Regarding the low volume in recent repurchases, only Morgan Stanley know the reason.

Best Regards ValueS

I'll give you an example:

The 16/07 RNS reported that 21,363,588 were repurchased, as a result the number of shares in issue (excluding treasury shares) was 26,621,750,821.

The 17/07 RNS reported that 17,150,465 were repurchased, as a result the number of shares in issue was 26,591,250,984.

This means that the number of shares in issue got reduced by 30,499,837 shares. Compare this figure to the reported buybacks on that day of 17,150,465 shares! The difference is 13,349,372 shares! They must have come from other venues, may be the Nasdaq may be some other venue, I don't know.

Best Regards ValueS

According to the RNS in 15/05, Morgan Stanley was given non-discretionary instruction to execute a €500 m buyback. It is worth noting that the buyback is carried out in various venues and not just the LSE. The reported buybacks reflect only those happened in London, not the other venues.

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" it all adds up to a lot of cash coming in ????"

Yes! €16B in just 4 transactions within 12 months only!

€8 B from Italian business, €5 B from Spanish business, €1.7 B from Indus Towers and now €1.3 B from Vantage Towers. Any more to come?

We .are still waiting for any offers from e&, The rumours are about Vodacom or may be Mpesa which provide financial services to 79 m Africans!

Clearly the market is not valuing VOD as the sum of its parts!

How much Vodafone Germany is worth?

How much Vodafone UK is worth?

Etc...

Etc...

Best Regards ValueS

I think it is better to look at the Return of Capital Employed (RoCE), rather than yield. The Spanish business was sold for €5B according to the 14/05 RNS. €4.1B in cash + €0.9B in redeemable preference shares, only €2B will be used for buyback, the remaining €2.1B for dept reduction while the €0.9B (should) continue to generate a return. The Spanish business was not generating much return (if any) when it was under Vodafone ownership. So the Capital Employed is reduced by €4.1B but the Return stayed (more or less) the sam! This should significantly improve the RoCE. Next year the same would apply for the Italian business. This is why I'm optimistic (in the medium term) about VOD.

Best Regards ValueS

The buyback programme is also progressing nicely and have reduced the number of shares from 27,080,342,226 in 1st of May to 26,735,730,800 according to today's RNS. That is a reduction of 344,611,426 shares despite a massive release of more than 36 m shares vested according to the global incentive plan.

Best Regards ValueS

From the RNS:

"The Company intends to complete the programme following the AGM subject to shareholder approval of resolution 9"

There are 8 or more sessions of buyback until 4th of July (x-div date). At the usual 125,000 shares per session, another 1 m shares at least could be bought back by x- div. This will improve the dividend per share to 5.42 p (at least?) according to my calculation.

Best Regards ValueS

At current GBP/USD = 1.2663, Dividend =5.3956 p per share.

"Those shares will almost certainly reappear on the market in the form of staff incentives."

Those shares will certainly appear on the market in the form of saff incentives, regardless whether there are treasury shares or not.

Best Regards ValueS