The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
After ALKs Q1 report, it is clear that since December 2020, only companies that have registered products will thrive in the German market, which is accelerating their transition to registered products only. A big chunk of AGYs revenue was coming from the German market and this is bound to change soon. Peanut is way far away and if it is anything like the previous trials, the outcome is very dubious. Troubled times ahead for AGY IMHO.
So, Immunobon is a supplement containing whey and vitamins. A product that is not classified as pharmaceutical nor has scientific relevance. Another supplement in a pretty saturated market, that will try to compete against established supplement brands with better marketing, distribution, research etc. in the field. This product is the result of years of R&D and a fully fledged marketing team? Seriously? A commercial and reputational disaster waiting to happen. This is only tarnishing even further investors opinions on AGY, no wonder why after each RNS there are a few hours of excitement and then the share inexorably drops. They are continuously failing to impress and regain investors trust, a few years ago they were speaking about registering their vaccines, developing a peanut vaccine, entering the US market… now we’re talking supplements. In the meantime competitors successfully managed to register their products in key markets. A company with no vision or direction, one failure after the other…Buyers beware.
Any thoughts on the latest RNS?
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AGY/directorpdmr-shareholding-1b83ch5s6i0cnus.html
Herdgehog, competitors like Stallergenes and ALK have already had successful trials that allowed them to register products for venoms, dust mites, trees and grass. AGY has registered 0 products in the past 15 yrs.
So now this statement:
"The Group has also signed a commercial agreement with Biomedical International R+D GmbH for the exclusive rights to ImmunoBON, a patented protein-based oral treatment which was developed to replicate the reduction in incidence of allergy as seen by those who live on a farm with livestock, the so-called "farm effect". In a preclinical study programme, the immunogenicity of the protein formulation with the selected ligands was proven, as well as the capacity to prevent allergic sensitisation1-5. At the scientific congress of the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology in June 2020, two poster presentations demonstrated that the product significantly reduced allergic symptoms in a mouse model6, and also among patients in a double-blind placebo controlled pilot study7 when compared to placebo treatment."
Should be reassuring? Data based on 2 EAACI P-O-S-T-E-R-S? Wow. I’ll keep that in mind if I ever need to persuade investors I can resort to posters from my childhood bedroom and pass them as scientifically relevant "demonstrations”.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice…?
Hedgehog, I appreciate your exceeding optimism, and would agree with you that this news could be taken either way depending on whether the final results would be positive or not. BUT, and let me put this in simple words for you, I would agree only if this was the case of a company with a proven track record of budget achieved, successful trials and registered products. I am afraid this isn’t the case and that this was a dragging hope to get somewhat relevant results on their end. Many countries are starting to regulate these products and banning them from being sold without clinical studies supporting their claims. Italy has already done that to name one, and Germany is heading that same direction, how many will be next? This is simply unacceptable as the promise to many investors was to have these trials back their claims and giving the products a platform to expand to potential new markets. During the years not only they have failed to do so therefore precluding the possibility to expand, but due to the changing of regulations, they are are risking for the list of countries where these products are ban to grow more and more. How do you call this a success? It really escapes me how people can still have faith in this soon to be shambolic play.
Well, I think you may be confused by the alarming amount of failed trials that AGY is piling up.
That litigation was for the PQ Grass Trial https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/06/27/1875464/0/en/Allergy-Therapeutics-plc-Successful-litigation-settlement-relating-to-PQ-Grass-Phase-II-Trial.html
The Birch trial is another failure story. Although I can definitely see a constant here. May this be a severe case of bad luck? Or maybe, just maybe, incompetence from the management?
How is this even remotely positive news, as some of you have mentioned, for AGY and most of all for investors? What I see clearly is that they have invested MILLIONS in this study which then resulted invalid! A scientific study is deemed invalid when there is a methodology error. This means, the study was conducted wrongly and millions flew out the window, due to what, an oversight? On a multi-million euro study? How can they try and patch this saying that they still believe in the project? And what if in 2 years (or longer) when phase III is finalized again the results remain inconclusive? Seems to me this is only part of a strategy to avoid admitting that this trial was doomed from the beginning and they have no idea what they’re doing. Honestly I’m tired of them trying to justify the unjustifiable. I just don’t trust them anymore, I had lost confidence for a long time, but this is just getting worse by the second.
The Italian regulatory AIFA has just banned all unregistered npp vaccines including those of AGY! From the attached documents, it looks like AGY will be banned from selling most of their pipeline, with only a few products allowed on the market. This is an extreme downfall in one of their biggest EU markets. I wonder if other EU markets will follow???
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aifa.gov.it%2F-%2Fconclusione-del-procedimento-avviato-con-determina-aifa-dg-n-2130-2017
Agreed, even if sales wouldn’t drop, and I highly doubt that, the market is in a tough spot right now, but at least competitors have managed to register some products in the past years. Allergy don’t have the funds and they proved they don’t have the skills to use them correctly and bring home positive trial results. There seems to be hope here.
Johntay... the delaying of Birch trial results in August and the subsequent mass selling is a very strange turn of events indeed. I wonder if it is coincidence after all. At this moment in time I don't know what to believe.
A peanut pipeline potential?
Buy today for a new potential total failure in 5 years, when they haven’t had a successful trial in 10 years, and that would be 5 years late when competitors are already far more beyond AGY with Peanut trials? When big pharma is moving on right now from immunotherapy with biologic products for food allergies?
I am sorry but it’s very hard to see a future for AGY at this moment in time.
This is ridiculous! The management has played us for months with those TUs! They must have known for a long time that results were pointing towards being inconclusive!!!
Millions of research investiments thrown out the window and we’ve been played all along.
This management has proved being completely inadequate, as I don’t trust anymore that growth data from previous TUs is reliable at all!!!
Again,
until I see detailed data I cannot blindly trust the information provided as it’s very vague. It would be interesting to see where the 10.6% growth is coming from, as well as the growth in Germany and the time period it’s referring to.
I will be awaiting for definitive data to draw conclusions.
I am still not convinced, and this massive sale volume one day after the RNS is not reassuring.
I did some research and it looks like Dupilumab is performing excellently in trials for clinical applications other than eczema treatment. It was approved by FDA in late 2018 for Asthma treatment, and more trials are rolling out with apparently outstanding results.
All the scientific community seems to be buzzing around this new type of product and envisioning it to replace immunotherapy...wow!
https://www.allergicliving.com/2017/09/19/hope-for-eczema-drug-ranges-from-asthma-to-food-allergies/
Has anyone seen this news?
https://www.clinicaladvisor.com/allergy-and-immunology-information-center/desensitizing-pediatric-peanut-allergy-with-oral-immunotherapy-ar101/article/818585/
Looks like important discoveries are being made re peanut allergy. Wasn't this in AGY future plans? I wonder if it will affect them given that they haven't even started off with any kind of trial on peanuts, this puts at high risk a big slice of market that they promised on taking?