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Hi cc, your research is always welcome. Thanks for your efforts. My research suggests that there seems to be some ramping going on on this board recently (using textual analysis and the statistical distribution of posts).
The question is, why go for this extravagant ramping so close to the RNS which should provide answers to many of these speculations? The answer isn't difficult to work out. I'll leave at that, like cc when he's in enigmatic mode.
If you're holding, like me, it doesn't matter much. If you intend to trade be careful.
CC, it is true you are sometimes called a ramper. For those of us who have been here a while we know you have also been called a deramper. Whatever you do you do with enthusiasm.
Bluemango, it is true that "the market hates uncertainty" ( I try not to take this personally) but the amount of uncertainty at CASP hasn't really changed much recently. It explains what I agree is an undervaluation, but not the recent fluctuations.
The fact of the matter is that we don't really know what is going on at 802 and 803. 802 is probably still flowing but we don't know by how much. 803 is probably about to spud butwe have know idea whether the chances are any greater here than than they have been elsewhere.
Fortunately for us and the market this uncertainty is about to be reduced a little in the next RNS which is a week or so away. I can certainly wait that long.
Having a rig on site is good news of course, but it doesn't seem enough to justify the run of purchases this morning. It isn't actually oil is it? The sp has been going up and down recently, presumably as a result of pi selling and buying. There doesn't seem to be much justification for any of the recent moves. Perhaps some people have got a little bored and have started playing games?
I wonder if the people doing the posting this morning are the people doing the trades? I don't mind you guys messing about as I don't trade at present, but this is a lot of movement for fairly unclear information. Have fun!
Now, now CC, I did say if I thought you were ramping, I would say so. But agreed, there is a lot of circumstantial evidence to support your view. Unless the chicken falls over of course. I hear 18,000 cows were blown up in the USA recently.
I often think that, particularly looking at the CASP sp over the last couple of months, that rather than the market reflecting the best available information, it more closely resembles a headless chicken.
CC I am absolutely sure that you are both buying and not ramping at all, but providing well researched information which is to the benefit of all posters here. As you know, if I thought otherwise I would say so.
Looks like a little run started up to the next RNS aided by this good research and useful discussion on this generally well informed and polite board. Long may it last.
The point is OneJohn, you're not a novice are you? You may not be an expert, but you are a LTH as you admitted on your first post under that monica on 10th April 2017. You have made no posts on any other share, so presumably this is your only holding. This may explain your frustration, but honesty goes a long way if you want your posts to be taken seriously.
The RNS will come on Friday and will contain mixed news on the shallows workovers, a bopd between 3k and 4k for Q1, and a complicated story about 802 which will generate a host of emails to Clive for clarification. Divi total of $3m minimum for Q2 will be referred to obliquely. New holders will give up in disgust. LTHs will smile and reinvest their divis. The sp slide will halt and slowly improve. In July the really big news will come, but I don' know what it is yet.
Thanks to recent posters for clarity about when there HAS to be another RNS (May). I still rather think we may hear from them in the next fortnight, either on some operational update or provisional quarterly output figures.
News would be good, but its lack can be over-interpreted.
Some people seem to be falling into the "the market is always right" fallacy and starting to assume the price drop must mean bad news. On the contrary it means poor communications. I don't know if the news is good or bad, and neither does anyone else. As always:chill
The divi is solid so this drop means a very good rate of return to new buyers (fact not ramp).
What is really happening here is some combination of new holders getting the willies and market manipulators who are taking advantage of uncertainty to push the price down to get in at a low price before the next RNS.
Smarty! you know that we can research this share very well on the shallows. The deeps have always been a gamble and LTHs all know that.
I'm afraid this is the normal trading pattern for CASP. We have a period of hype and hope followed by delay and decline. The RNS eventually comes along and usually confuses the picture further. This time it may well be some kind of delay with 802 accompanied by an opaque explanation with important missing or conflicting elements.
This isn't a deramp, just a bit of realism from a LTH. However the overall picture is much more optimistic than for some time, the divi looks fairly solid, and the floor shouldn't be too much lower than this.