If they miss one quarter's divi (and that is by no means certain yet) and then get back on track, that will still be a 9% divi. I am still of the opinion that this is oversold, but then when it does go down, it does tend to fall some way. It will probably take news to turn it around at this stage. Good fy results will probably be not enough. Some more credible explanation of operational developments and problems together with some actual news of what is currently happening would be needed. Past experience doesn't necessarily inspire confidence here, but you never know. Should be an interesting AGM.
There was a good run of buys at the end of last week so I think the bottom is in and we begin the climb back up to a more realistic valuation. The sp can move quickly in either direction on relatively low trading . We are all expecting a good full year accounts from last year and if there is positive dividend and/or operational news mixed in with the RNS, then we could well climb back into the 6s or 7s fairly quickly.
Don't block CC, MrC. We need your response when he get's out of hand again.
Agreed BM, we may not like the way the market works but not buying is a bit like not voting because a few politicians lie. Also news about the divi one way or the other will have to come by the end of June with the full year accounts.
Hi Smarty, I agree that current profitability is likely to be more than adequate to pay the dividend based on your suggested net figures. Cashflow is however also dependent on capital expenditure and we have even less information about that.
The current sp is at a ridiculously low level, even given the limited information available that we have and there will be RNSs at the end of June and again probably before the autumn.
It's very difficult to model what is going on in CASP in H1 2023, but working backwards, they need $7.2m cashflow for H1 net of operating costs and capital investment if they are to continue paying the dividend. They may have had some money in the bank at the end of 2022 (we'll find out soon) but I think the limited drilling activity we are now learning about indicates a cashflow difficulty.
This may be partly explained by the need to put money aside for the dividend. My own view is that the cashflow situation is not so bad that the dividend won't be paid (we shall find out very soon). However with the very limited operational information that we get now, I am much less confident in this prediction than I used to be when talking about such issues in the past.
Whatever the case may be, I am optimistic that output in H2 is likely to be higher and that profitability will continue to justify the dividend
Its the H1 performance which will affect the dividend and as usual the recent RNS gave the impression of disclosure of the current state of affairs but on closer examination left us completely in the dark. "Recent" output is at 2k bopd, but when did it actually come down from 3k bopd.
Sales to the mini-refineries continues, but what is the actual price? Can anyone put a dollar price on the following quote from the RNS?
"However, the recent fall in the international oil price means that the net price achieved from sales to mini refineries is now broadly equivalent to the net price the Company would expect from international sales without the Urals oil discount."
They used to do more regular operational updates but even then the variation in bopd always came as a surprise because they didn't give full information. The main shareholders do, I assume, know what is going on but the PIs have always been left in the dark.
I hold here, despite their appalling comms, because the shallows are sufficient to justify the dividend and there is always a possibility of a deep bonanza
Some people are getting out this morning as they realise they have been misled by all the hype over the last few weeks. As a more considered evaluation takes place, I think the much improved cashflow position, the consequent ability to progress drilling and the probability of continued dividends will lead to a recovery in the sp.
Information about the dividend one way or tthe other would have been helpful, not to say polite. Appalling comms as usual.
The rise in the value of CASP in the first half of the year was based on the monthly dividend and the high yield. It now seems likely that the level of the dividend will be maintained at the very least and so that justification for holding the share has returned. They also have a good cashflow situation.
This should push the value of the share up considerably this week. There will be a limit as to how far this can go until we have more operational news, but I think in the 7-8p range. Today's RNS demonstrates that no news means we really don't know what's going on. CASP clearly don't think they need to tell us when nothing is happening, even if they have clearly said something will happen in a previous RNS.
Hi Somm, we really don't know what is happening at 802 at the moment or if there is a 90 day test in progress. We know the oil is there, but we have failed to get much out of the deeps despite trying for years. There is likewise only very limited info about 803. We don't know whether the divi will be paid or not. We have no clear idea about current bopd.
We do know that the shallows are flowing and the boat is chartered out. As coffee said that is what is known and what has been paying the dividend and more than justifying the sp.
I like to think you are right and 802 and 803 will flow, but this is a hope, not a certainty. I also hope your blood pressure has got back to normal now.
ps I haven't yet forgiven you for quoting me out of context. That may take some time.
I am pleased to see we are back to a reasoned discussion with widespread admissions of ignorance about the true state of affairs. Those of you who are relatively new to this board will have been able to spot the sharks.
Having said all that, I remain positive about CASP in the near future, although deeps are and always have been a long shot.
CASP tends to slide in the absence of news. However news will definitely be coming in about three weeks, so getting out now will need a swift turnabout to get back in before the inevitable rise into the news.
What did you think about the Seville Roma match Somm? Was the referee biased there as well?
A lot of the concern on this board is about why there has been no operational update and what this might mean. CASP are supposed to report material changes, but they are about as reliable in deciding what falls into this category as the UK government is in deciding which whatsapp messages to release to the Covid Inquiry.
Patience is still needed as has been the case for a long time. Chill!