Member Info for uncertain

My forecast of a 3.5p share price for Xmas was based on the idea that one of these wells was going to generate an interesting RNS. Time is getting tight. This whole prophecy business is really difficult!

And then there are political optimists!

If there more kinds of optimists out there, please identify your own flavour of positive outlook so you can find your tribe.

Thruppence is the price the market will pay for CASP when it has promise but no oil flowing. They won't pay it for ever, but in the short term this is what the market considers reasonable. No doubt past disappointments have been factored into this judgement. Those of us who have been invested here for a good long time will understand where the market is coming from, but we differ in being optimists. Mild optimists or battered optimists, desperate or deluded optimists, well informed and gambling optimists, we come in many forms.

We've had a flurry of RNSs but the market will require oil. A good test flow will get CASP moving slowly but a steady flow is what is needed to lift us off the floor. There's been a lot of excitement about the many potentials out there for CASP, and for new investors with a few bob for a punt this is certainly enough. Personally I think the extra resources available to CASP this time around will make all the difference. Newcomers may need a bit more encouragement.

Xmas forecast: 3.5p. Take off will probably be in the spring.

IWWTBOOTOX

As per Clive's request, I would like to congratulate the Investment Committee. A financial estimate of the benefit of this decision would be helpful!

Good enough to get us into double figures if you're right about the output Somm

I think you misunderstand me openBlue. I state that I remain optimistic. I merely point out that we remain in the dark about the asset position and that the (many) reasons to be cheerful rely on outcomes yet to be determined. Those of us who have been here a while know that such situations don't always turn out as well as hoped for. Nevertheless, as I also point out, this time we have the cash to throw at the latest ventures.

Others, who are much better qualified than I to comment on the likelihood of success in specific instances, because of their technical knowledge of the oil industry, have been making encouraging noises, which lifts my hopes. I am expecting this share to rise in value and I am in it for the medium term (at least) but I know from past experience that a large rise in the value of the share will not occur until we have some solid news, Dividends will be needed at some point.

I only check this site once a week so was pleasantly surprised to find this morning that we are relisted and on the up again. I also decided much earlier this year not to post until there was something to say!

I don't have much to say to be honest. There is uncertainty about our current asset position and where the cash has gone to as others have commented. We are back in a situation where we are dependent on the success of drilling activity, but at least have the cash to do it properly. Much of our income in the first 6 months is on discontinued (sold) activity.

The valuation of the share is now as uncertain as the success of their new ventures, but I remain optimistic

As Bluemango says, there is a large financial package now on the table including sales of the shallows, external financing, and new developments which is currently being delayed by red tape and no doubt last minute negotiations. Of course it could all fall through, but it doesn't have that feel to me.

This share has required a great deal of patience and perhaps we just need a little bit more

No need to rib me Somm. It doesn't seem very simple to me. 50% of the reserves has to translate into value somewhere along the line and some agreement about cost and revenue sharing has to come into it. I suppose that's what they mean by 'heads of terms'. That seems like the detail we need to know more about. It may be that they're about to get a nice juicy steak.

Thanks for the advice Somm and pardon my ignorance. I am a little fuzzy about how such a stake would work. Can anyone help me out, or do we simply not know yet?

Somm, the ownership of CASP is about to change. The concert party will drop back to 25%. The major shareholder as I understand it, will be a financial institution. They tend to like a flow of dividends. They may put a brake on too large a dividend now, as part of negotiations. but I expect some dividend. If the new owners don't want dividends, then they may be looking for a capital gain in the medium term, which would be fine by me.

They always said they would borrow when it came to setting up infrastructure. If the new money coming in is partly for that, then, while not being quite the same, it is consistent with previous statements. Instead of bringing in money through borrowing, they are bringing in money through sharing ownership (the exact mechanism for this has not been disclosed).

A large special dividend might also, in effect, be made possible by this new financing (you can only hope!)

I expect Smarty is just a bit bored, like me. The sp has been flat because nothing has happened, although it looks as though that is about to change...

Promising is what CASP are good at. Delivering, not so much...

There are (at least) two kinds of homelessness. Most people classified as homeless are in fact living in unsuitable accommodation like B&Bs, rather like the migrants. People living on the streets often have other problems such as addiction or mental health difficulties.

No, it was a response to the nonsense opinion that England is an islamic state

Nostalgia isn't what it used to be

Hardly