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There should be a Q4 / full year RNS about output levels and average price received before too long. Last year it arrived on Feb 5th.

If oil has resumed its largely linear increase at the same rate as last year then we should reach $100 by June. Price up. Drilling up. Output up. The only thing missing is SP up. It can only be a matter of time.

As KK often reminds us CASP has many irons in the fire, any one of which would justify a substantial rise in price. The most obvious and most likely one as CC says below is the horizontal drilling of the MJF strucuture, a technique which has already been proved successful twice.
Confirmation of what we already know about rising output and profitability may come in an RNS first, or the two bits of news may be rolled into one. Good production / financial results should lift us - even though we really know about it already from recent RNSs - because CASP has fallen off the radar and needs news to bring it back into view
I can understand CC reducing his position here if all he is expecting is more MJF news. Myself, I think there will be success from some of the other "irons in the fire" which will justify a much larger uplift..

CASP often drifts down between major RNSs. Fortunately we are expecting good news soon so there is likely to be a shift back up reasonably soon

CC, people I trust on this AIM board include Tucson Bottled, Somm, KK, Rhertig, Divermike, Mr Cautious among others. Just for your information I have held throughout the pandemic and if I stop holding I will let everyone know and explain why.

CC good to see you working hard to get back people's trust after your "Boris" moment during the uprising.

Visually, without doing the maths, oil seems to be returning to its more or less steady linear price rise from the summer of 2020 now that omicron is beginning to lose momentum

The cold wind whistles mournfully over the empty steppe, sapping the will to live

is largely above freezing at present with light overnight frosts and is expected to stay that way for the rest of the month. Work on all fronts should be progressing well.

My spreadsheet represents the truth. Reality is less reliable.

Hi Tucson, yes that is true this past week, but it varies. Earlier in the year before the big increase in output and price my model was tracking the share price quite well. My interpretation is that the market doesn't trust CASP yet after all the poor communications and false starts. A few years ago with the news we currently have the SP would have been up in the low teens.

10.58p badge. But I should say that it puts us a 8.46p at $80. My spreadsheet puts us consistently above the market sp over the last 6 months which either means we are substantially undervalued or there is an optimistic bias in my spreadsheet.

I think my spreadsheet is a little bit forward looking in that it takes current output and price and assumes they obtain for a full year, while the market is rather backward looking and is thinking what profit might be over the last year.

My spreadsheet could be more forward loking. I could take $90 and extrapolate foraward an average of say 4000bopd for 2022 and then get a value of 18.37p. At the moment the market remains unconvinced about CASP and undervalues it comprehensively IMO.

I am looking forward to the annual accounts which will provide me with another snapshot of costs so that I can recalibrate the model. I expect fixed costs will jack up in 2022 compared to last year.

Compared to what has happened in the gas market, the rise in the oil price is quite mild. The gas prices are rising on a scale comparable with the OPEC oil prices of the 1970s as we will all find out in April (my fixed price conttract with OVO came to an end this month unfortunately). I think $100 is quite possible this year, particularly if the pandemic runs out of steam.

The combination of rising oil prices and a massive ramping up of output makes investment here a no-brainer.

Here's a theory of what went on in Kazakhstan which I also find reassuring
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-59999612

Brent surging up towards $85 this afternoon. In reality we are 0.1p up on the day

CASP is listed as third on the all share fallers board this morning because for some reason a single "unknown" transaction late yesterday went through at 5p. All the other transactions before that were about 4.30p so todays price change should read no change.

Of course the price should be way above 5p on fundamentals but the market remains cautious

Has suddenly surged over $83.

Notice the two functions they are incentivising: operations and takeovers.

Does anybody know what Fidelio was talking about earlier

Investing in countries which are unstable is part of the risk you take. For instance I held CEY for many years when there when there was unrest in Egypt. Autocracies are always potentially unstable even if they appear to be in control. I am sure that last week was a very difficult time for citizens of Kazakhstan, but I didn't think at any point that there would be serious consequences for CASP.

Fourth on the leader board for share risers this morning which is not too bad. We ought to rise higher today based on fundamentals but perhaps people are waiting to make sure things have properly settled down in Kazakhstan. This time next week we should be over 5p

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-59927267

Apparently a large number of foreign nationals have been detained. I do hope Clive and Mr Shin are OK

Tokayev was a Moscow trained career diplomat from the soviet era who speaks fluent chinese and worked in the Beijing embassy before becoming foreign minister when Kazakhstan gained independence. As a result he has very good good Russian connections. Is he as good internally as he is externally?