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Brent at $102 after the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine early this morning. Good for CASP of course but I would much rather this was not happening. Very substantial sanctioins will follow which will result in the disruption of oil and gas markets. A question arises of transport networks out of Kazakhstan. Does anyone know the geographic route our oil takes?

WHI have assumed $82 a barrel long term in their valuation and also the current number of shares, not the number after the debt equity swap. 7.9p of the valuation is based on MJF. All the longer term speculative values assume deep success. I am unsure how they get from 102p with complete success to 21p fair value today, but presumably some kind of risk assessment on the probability of success in the deeps.

My conclusion is that an sp north of 8p is justifiable now, and any good news on the deeps will set it rising into the teens

Hi Tucson,
Just for clarification: Borisovsky as in kleptocrats not communists.
Jimmy: the Cuban missiles were nuclear: the USA has no nuclear weapons in Europe. We do and the French do but nowhere near the border with Russia.

This is how Putin's disinformation works. The Donbass is in Ukraine. The invasion of Ukraine began there and in the Crimea in 2014. Unofficial Russian troops and Russian equipment and finance underpinned the Donbass end while the Crimean invasion was above board. There has never been any democratic process to ask for independence from Ukraine. The region did vote for independence from Russia back in 1991.

The Russians have moved from covert war against Ukraine to overt war but are maintaining a totally laughable pretence of peacekeeping. Of course the Ukrainians should use UK weapons to fight the now obvious Russian invasion - that's why we sent them.

Meanwhile back in the House of Commons Boriskovsky Johnson sounded more like Chamberlain than Churchill.

Kazakhstan could become an important transit country for Russian oil and gas going to China

Mike, democracy works by making decisions and then reviewing them in the light of eperience. It is far too soon to review Brexit yet particularly with covid muddying the waters, but a time will come when we do review it and possibly shift our position from the rather hard version of Brexit we have followed.
Democracy involves changing your mind when appropriate. Time will tell

Buz, KK can talk about Brexit if he wants. Being out of the EU probably will have an impact on foreign policy co-ordination. Macron holds the EU chair at the moment and that is why he is being proactive (plus an election) and had we been in the EU we could have fed into that process with more influence.

Given Putin's recognition of the breakaway regions of the Donbas as separate states a few minutes ago, I would think $100 could be reached tomorrow

Just over $95. How much longer before we get to the magic $100?

And also somedays of lost prooduction during the unrest

I fully agree that going slowly but surely on the deeps is the right approach. I would rather wait a few months for the sp to rise rather than rush things.

Sorry for the off topic post

Nerja and Granada. I have been to both Seville and Cordoba which are both great.

I'm off to Andalucia for February. Like KK in Gran Canaria I will look in from time to time, particularly if we have an exciting RNS, but like CC I am expecting the SP to move up in the spring.

So you are trying to get back in lower FF!

You can value an oil co. by using proven reserves times recoverability then discount to find an NPV. The figures for CASP are a bit uncertain here, particularly around recoverability. Or you can estimate profitability from current and projected flows in the near future and use EPS and P/E ratios to estimate value. I use the latter method but I think the market is using the former which is why my estimates are higher. The approach does of course assume that the future will be like the present and will continue beyond investor's time horizons, but on here we largely think that things will actually get better.

My current valuation on this basis using $90 Brent, 2500 bopd and a P/E of 10 is 10.58p with a ha'penny dividend. I'm sure the market will eventually catch up!

My spreadsheet give $109,000 net profit per day at 3000 bopd but I think we are closer to 2500 bopd and that gives $87500 net profit. Both calculated for Brent at $90

Nearly touched $91 earlier today.

Through $90 for the second time today. Looking like a clear shift upwards.

As Rhertig says, flowing the deeps won't initially be at $89 for 70% of their output. Until an international licence is available it will be more like $20 (we haven't had an update on the local price for a while). Does anyone have any idea of a realistic timetable for such a licence?

Just a smidgeon off $90 this afternoon. Breaking through $90 will be psychologically important I feel