Member Info for uncertain

Ah, I see I didn't look at the time. We weren't quite open.

Interesting spread this morning

which is why Brent is down this evening. Gas is also down substantially possibly for the same reason

It's good to know that the revenues are still rolling; the uncertainty about the immediate future in a warzone still remain however.
This has got to be in the top ten of CASP uninformative RNSs! Progress appears to be slow and we know why this might have been the case in January but it is unclear why things have not picked up in February and March.

On my spreadsheet the SP is currently priced for $60 a barrel at these out put levels with nothing else priced in. When are the financials for last year coming?

I think this may be because although the US ban is immediate, the UK ban for the moment is phased and the EU has promised to wean itself off Russian gas but has said nothing about oil. Shell has stopped spot purchases but has said nothing about supplies it has bought forward (although the unions may refuse to offload these supplies).

My conclusion is that Russian oil will continue to flow for the present but maybe at a slight discount (which is no problem at the moment). The RNS will tell us more and must be imminent

Reasons the share price is dropping
1. CASP always drifts down if there is no news over a long period
2. The debt share swap is dilution even if it leaves us in a better cashflow situation
3. We should be selling oil at present through Russian routes but a fear that these routes may close is creating uncertainty. While there is a Chinese route there may be limited capacity
4. The war may last for quite a while yet

We should get an RNS soon which may give us more information

I filled my car yesterday at £1.53. I don't think we'll see that price again for a while.

Thanks for the info KK. Slightly reassuring. I know there is a pipeline to China.

Q. What's worse than a black swan?
A. Two black swans!

Hi Badge, just for fun it comes out at 17p! The spreadsheet is based on continuous production at current levels (2500). Like all such calculations it has a few drawbacks (like how long can production and price levels be maintained) but in this case I think its just a matter of not knowing how CASP oil is even being sold at all.

This should be the main question in investors minds at the moment. CASP are being their usual uninformative selves.

Tintin, Aktau may be along way from Ukraine but Kazakhstan is rather big.

Well DM, in what other ways might Germany and Kazakhstan be different do you think?

Hi Tucson, I think the war is affecting the price. Kazakhstan is about 500ks away from Ukraine and given Putin's irrationality there is no certainty about what might happen to any former USSR state. I still don't know by what geographical route our oil is getting to market.

Agreed Tucson, this is what the board is for and these are the important posts. However sounding off about the important subjects of the day does little harm and can sometimes be relevant. Sorry that it irritates you

Adrianz, there are fascists in all countries, UK included. I agree that the presence of a group of what appear to be fascists as a regiment within the Ukrainian is disturbing, but if we look at the bigger picture it is clear that in Russia we have a fascist government whereas in Ukraine we have a democratically elected government. If they survive the current crisis then Ukraine will have to deal with the Azov group. We are also having to deal with police in the Met who have a disturbing set of views. All democratic countries face this kind of challenge. Probably just after contributing to a (hopeful) successful campaign will not be the time to come down hard on them however, but drawing Ukraine into the EU and NATO will contribute to the marginalisation of such views

reprisals in Russia - not reprisals in Russian!

https://www.kcp.kz/company/about?language=en

Is this how our oil will be transported in the future?

The difficulty ODS is that NATO can't and won't give him what he has asked for in terms of rolling back NATO to before 1997 and the EU can't give up supporting the former Soviet Union states either because they are now largely in the EU.
I think the invasion has reached an interesting stage (not for the poor Ukrainians obviously) in that the Russians now face an army in urban situations supported by a large armed citizens contingent. Will they be able to get out of their tanks? What happens if they succeed but are subject to continuous guerilla warfare? What happens if they install a puppet regime which is atacked by its own citizenry? If Zelensky is killed will there be reprisals in Russian by the millions of Ukrainians living there against Russian politicians? I think, unfortunately, this is just beginning.

DM: at 2500 bopd and $105 we will bank about $6m revenue pcm

Russia has the advantage with missiles and air power. Ukraine has the weapons to deal with tanks. The problem will come when Russian soldiers get out of their tanks. There could be an effective guerilla style backlash as many Ukrainians are heavily armed.