Member Info for uncertain

CB, CASP is currently valued at £120m at a 5.3p sp but if we get back towards Brent prices for oil with the new export arrangements then revenue will be £132m. p.a. going forward. Costs could well be less than half of that (although we have limited info on that)

Discussions on this board a few weeks ago about possible divis ranged from 0.05p a quarter to 0.1p but with the new export arrangements and current Brent price the divi could be as high as 1.5p p.a. going forward from here, even at current output levels. I would expect it to hit 2p p.a. sometime next year, IMNOO

If we start getting closer to Brent with the new export arrangements and if current prices persisted over a year, then Rocketeer's suggested sp of 24p is not unreasonable at current output levels. Those output levels are likely to rise substantially so it is an underestimate of a reasonable price in current conditions.
I'm still getting used to the idea of Rocketeer being reasonable so going the next step and calling him/her a deramper surprised me, but I think it may be correct!

All we need to do now is hold and wait. The news is getting out there and the volume is building.

Should be worth a penny on the sp on Monday morning

What will the effect be of excluding ships that carry "Russian" oil (i.e. Urals) from the Lloyds insurance market?

We have been trading at a discount on actual performance because of poor communications and uncertainty about the geo-political risk for some time. I think we may soon switch to trading at a premium as the market sees the Urals oil price stabilise and it becomes clear that bopd is likely to continue to rise on a regular basis. Based on current Brent prices i think we would soon be over 20p IMNOO

Sorry to be late to the party and apologies if I repeat anything from earlier in the day (I haven't read all 53 posts!) but this news simply confirms that CASP has cracked the shallows and the horizontal drilling technique they have used recently has once again been successful. Old hands on here will have expected news of this kind sometime soon, but if you are a new investor, there is plenty more coming from where this came from.

The deeps are as always another matter, but we will now have sufficient funds to continue to crack them as well together with regular dividend payments. $87m revenue a year results from 4000 bopd at a $35 discount from Brent with 70% exported. My dividend forecast on these figures for a full year would be 0.73p. My model is a little optimistic on costs (I will recalibrate it after the full year results) but I think a 0.5p dividend would be a minimum, particularly since 4000 bopd is a new baseline from which we should be able to advance.

This should be at least 10p IMNOO

Clive seems to be much better at writing emails than RNSs

KK that's about $4m gross revenue pcm on average based on 2000bopd, as I am sure you can work out. Only $3.6m pcm on current urals price though. I won't calculate pbt as I don't think that past percentages are necessarily a good indicator of current performance. Also we may find that output differs noticeably from 2000 bopd, although this being CASP I am unable to guess in which direction.

KK brent didn't go above $100 until the war started. In addition we have the unrest in Kazakhstan in January which led to lost output and the problems with the pipeline after that so what bopd are you plugging in on average? There are still a lot of unknowns but I think profit for H1 is likely to be closer to $7.5m. This should however still convert to a possible divi of 0.125p for the half year and an implied sp of 5p, with the prospect of further rising output in H2 leading to a probable valuation of 8p by the end of 2022.

Any divi that actually happens may refer back to to the performance in 2021 of course.

Thanks for the info Somm. I havn't been paying enough attention to what CC says!

KK I would agree with that dividend range but probably towards the lower end based on recent and present performance (in as much as we know about that!). However they might choose to start with a larger divi based on last years performance in total - perhaps 0.25p and then 0.1p in the following quarters based on output rising to 3000 bopd. If there is a boaty charter, I would expect the divi to rise to 0.2p a quarter.

On what do you base that supposition Quaytec? Brent has been rising steadily since early December last year and if you ignore the tow sharp peaks in March is still basically in line with the upward trend line since before the war began.

I think 0.25p per half year is a more likely dividend based on current output and price figures. To get above that will need 3AB or Boaty revenue

So with Brent down around $100, we are likely to be getting less than $70.

The RNS was disappointing but I expected it to be disappointing. It was disappointing in ways I didn't expect (drilling and prices) but I was surprised that they were managing to sell oil at all so that was a plus. There is clearly now a plan to extend shallows drilling further and output should rise as a result in the second half of the year. A dividend will come from this supported by a possible sale of 3AB and rent/sale of Drilly McBoatface

Well, I think that, having had a pandemic, a local failed revolution and a major regional war, CASP are doing surprisingly well. 2.1 kbopd @ around $80 is still $5m revenue pcm.

Call me shallow, but I fancy a dividend

I have been concerned about how casp oil was getting to market since the start of the war. It turns out that its price rather than quantity that I should have been concerned about. The war is likely to continue for months or years, and if we are going to get discounted as "urals oil" that is obviously going to be a big hit. Alternative export routes were mentioned but no details. The Kazakhstan government needs to do a deal with the west.
I have been in agreement with CC that shallows are sufficient to pull this up and the South Yelemes side drills sound promising. It sounds as though we were a bit unlucky with 142. We reallly do need some significant shallow progress in the next quarter for the sp to recover

So if temporary planned output reductions at tengiz combine with some alternative export capacity expansion then CASP may not be affected at all. There may be higher transport costs associated with other routes of course, but the oil may well still get to the international market.

While oil has surged back up this week the price of gas has been falling back. This may be because of the difficulties of replacing Russian gas quickly. The next sanction move could therefore be against oil, hence the price rise. Of course the Russians have threatened to cut off gas if oil sales are blocked, so gas prices could rise again. Maybe the EU are waiting until the weather improves during the spring before applying strong oil sanctions

There could be a drop in the price of oil tonight after news that Saudi Aramco are planning to increase production