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I have plugged the output and revenue for 2021 into my spreadsheet model for CASP and came up with a net profit of $4m. Discounting the provision for 3AB, the actual position is a net profit of $7m, so I am encouraged that I have got it nearly right.

I put 3700 bopd and $100 price back into the model (both easily achievable I think ) and got a net profit of $33m for H2.
I make that a dividend of 0.75p in December based on distributing half the profits. This implies a share price of 15p based on a P/E of 10. Since it is CASP, call it 10p

KK, I don't think costs are sky high. The more likely explanation for the June banking figures is the payment of debts/tax that had been outstanding for a while during the difficult pandemic years. The tricky situation during civil unrest at the start of the year and closure of the Chinese border may also have contributed.

The loss for last year seems to relate to the provisions made against the 3AB field and more detail about this would be helpful. The rather vague statement about a dividend later this year when previous RNSs seemed to imply a July dividend are probably responsible for the drop this morning. The $1m at the bank at the beginning of June and the reservations behind the going concern statement are also disappointing. Clearly they have taken longer to pay down their accrued liabilities than some of us hoped.
The prospect of 5000 bopd by the end of the year seems realistic and will clearly be the basis on which any divi is declared. Costs associated with BNG deep drilling should decline next year. Boaty is still moored up. They are still on Urals pricing but hope to move off soon
It is unsurprising that this RNS has caused a drop, but I think closer analysis of the full accounts should provide a more optimistic outlook

I am guessing here Stu but possibly the existence of the share premium account and its size, given that it exceeds cash in the bank, may have been the obstacle here. I am pretty sure that it is a Balance Sheet item and cannot all be turned into cash. Presumably the delay in publishing the accounts is in some part due to accounting adjustments that could only be made once this court case had been heard. We shall find out soon.

It's a legal thing
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/share-premium-account/

Stu, it's a liquidity thing. Assets are one thing and cashflow is another. Fortunately we have plenty of the latter at present.

Come on you mathemagicians, we need you now. This is about to go critical.

That's the first TA post we've had in a while CC. If we can pull in a few more graph gazers then lift off is assured

Surely its bish bash bosh?

The rise today could be sectoral as there are a few smaller oilies on the share riser board. If this is the case it at least good to know that we are sharing in such trends these days

DM if we are both right that the annual divi could be about 1.5p under current circumstances then based on earnings being about twice that and with a P/E of 10, I absolutely agree that 30p is achievable before too long, provided the negative sentiment towards CASP is dispelled by the next RNS and the AGM.

We will have to wait and see if the last rider on that prediction is fulfilled

Of course that is all without a 3AB sale and a Boaty sale/lease

BTC I agree that they could go for 0.5p but I think 0.25p in July would be more prudent, and then 0.35p in both September and December. This means I agree with DM in total.

Not long to wait now

Taking Somm's figures for a 0.25p a quarter dividend, then it would be equivalent to almost $20 a barrel net profit after tax based on 4000 bopd. This seems quite plausible if not modest based on current revenues and what we know about historic costs and would leave enough for futher investment IMNOO

Beautiful sunshine all the way and not a midge in sight. The £300 was for the whole trip getting there and back. The price of petrol in the Highlands was a bit steep.

I'm just back from the NC 500. The petrol cost £300.

Of course when WHI valued the shallows the price of oil was lower than it is today. On the other hand we don't know how long these very high prices will last.
You can value on resource or you can value on a p/e basis. Neither of them is a perfect approach but I think we will see, based on the full year results and H1, that we are undervalued on both.

If they can get near Brent with the new export arrangements they will get £26m revenue a quarter. Some costs are output related but there is a significant fixed element, so costs will be nonlinear and therefore lower on average as output progressively rises. As output continues to rise further during the year revenue will rise further still, provided Brent doesn't fall ( and remember that it could rise further).
Achieving £17ma quarter free cash for dividends isn't impossible in this scenario, based on shallows alone. I am not saying it would be wise to distribute all of this straight away, but we must remember that the principle shareholders have, like the rest of us, waited a long time for their payday and may get a little over excited as a result.

KK 1p max divi looking backwards; 3p max looking forwards. I am thinking outrageous and opportunistic rather than modest and prudent. Tax is banded on output rather than revenue.

CC I agree. A 3p divi is possible if all profits are distributed and output continues to grow but this would be a largely shallows based strategy with the expenditure on the deeps limited to licence requirements plus one major drill at a time. If output can be pushed up substantially from 4k bopd then more would be possible on the deeps. I am getting more optimitic that this will happen.