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In it's original form, coming from Afghanistan, the carrot was in fact purple.

It's always tomato coloured

There is a bit of a paradox here. Thsose of us who have been here a long time are here because we believe that this will come good, but at the same time we know the wider market had lost trust in the share because of poor communications and overpromising in the past.

I don't think they are overpromising this time and the intended dividend should be entirely deliverable. The RNS today is however a repeat of the last one. With no new information, the small kick to the share price this morning presumably comes from the wider publicity the share is attracting.

What will really drive this share is a few repeat monthly dividends to grow confidence and news of rising bopd. 2023 is going to be a really good year.

The word "intends" is still in there

We should get an RNS in December about January's dividend, and they will probably roll any drilling / boaty/ bopd news into that, but apart from that I'm not expecting anything until January/February with the review of the previous year.

The market appears to have decided that the current 12.4% (minimum) return is appropriate for the risk and sustainability of the forecast dividend and, as others have said below, we need to return to patient mode. Once some good news starts to come in then we should be back rising towards 10p, but that may not happen until early 2023

Its not as though we haven't waited before!

And if we crack a deep you will be right. The market isn't ready to believe that yet, and has been used to CASP overpromising and under delivering.

It maybe that the market will need to see a few months actual payments of dividends before they take it seriously. Production news to support the dividend payments may also be needed before we get back up towards 10p. Current output only justifies about 5p in my opinion, but I am confident that output will rise substantially next year.

Rocketeer, a good idea to inform newcomers here of the enormous potential of the deeps and the vast profits if we can crack them. However 42p in Q1 is definitely in ramping territory!

Communications Lack Initiates Value Excoriation
CASP Appreciation Requires Vigorously Escalating Remittances

A small run up towards 5p in the early afternoon, followed by a drop to 4.5p at the close??

There will be a strong rise this morning but probably a sell off in the early afternoon as the day traders take their profits.

Awax, we really aren't going to get production and other news updates every month, but if the dividend rises above £1m in any month we will know that things are going very well

We will only be able to calculate free cash flow on those months when the dividend exceeds £1m in total. Infering the production from that will be difficult unless we know what they have spent their money on that week.

Nice start this morning with good volume.. Loooks like a few day traders set 4p to sell. I would expect that we would get into the 4.5-5p range by the end of the day.

A good approach, Kheldar, but the market will also look at P/E ratios. Using a P/E of 10 together with my calculation of profit using my dodgy spreadsheet, I get 5.4p at 2400 bopd, 7.4p at 3000 bopd, 10.6p at 4000 bopd and 13.9p at 5000 bopd

P/E could rise above 10 if the market starts to believe the hype, but we are a little way off that yet.

Posting surreptitiously during Strictly

Ritchy, they say the higher of £1m and 35-49% of free cash flow, so the implied 28-35m of free cash flow (fcf) doesn't have to be reached. fcf is in any case a bit of a slippery concept which they can determine by their decisions.
The difference between fcf and profit may be difficult to determine, but I think they could reach $35m gross profit with 4300 bopd

Or perhaps it's an obscure volume?

Because it's attractive?

A pair of milion share "unknown" transactions cropped up at 11.40 and then again at 13.32 with almost identical prices. It could be they cancel each other out.

A lot of day traders seem to have 3.5p as their sell price. More of them to clear out of the way it seems.

Hi CC, as I have said many times I am a holder not a trader, so no, I haven't been locked out. Most of the last few years it feels more like I have been locked in! I have just under half a million shares and have had for some time, so not one of the big holders here. The RNS says £1m or 35-40% of free cashflow, whichever is the higher. It doesn't say that December's £1m is based on current cashflow. I think December's £1m is more than 35-40% of their free cashflow for that month, but no doubt cash has been accumulating in H2. I think they are counting on increased oilflow next year, and I also think that is a reasonable projection.
I have often been cast as a ramper on this board, but today I am sounding a small note of caution. However, today's news is of course fantastic and also, I believe, sustainable and credible. The market may be a little more cautious when it has time to look at the actual numbers, and we may take a little longer to get to 10p as a result

3900 bopd is needed on my spreadsheet to justify a divi of 0.444p per month, based on distributing half the profits. I am fairly sure they will get there. I think the market will do the sums eventually and settle on 5-6p for now. I predict 10p sometime next Spring.

I have put their current bopd and revenue numbers through my spreadsheet, and I get a share price of 5.4p, rather lower than I expected. i think their promise of £1m total dividend per month is predicated on rising output next year. I see no reason why it still shouldn't happen, but perhaps the current sp rise hasn't got too much further to go today