Member Info for uncertain

The way forward comes in three steps Unclothed Quisling
1. shallow drills success ( soon; bags))
2. Boat charter (uncertain; bags)
3. Deep success (more likely this time; maybe in the spring; mutlibagger)

A lot of the buys look like dividend buys to me. Smallish and neither round numbers in shares or pounds. We still need to get the word out to more newcomers which will probably come with the next ops release.

Only if its a rabbit

Living next door to the peak district means that I can go for a walk without playing golf. This just as well as a handicap of 24 would be a distant dream for me!
It will be interesting to see if the market responds well to the third dividend announcement.

Congratulations on your retirement KK SmartyP. I've been retired for 10 years now and still enjoying it. The important thing is to find something else interesting to do. Are you doing it cold turkey? I had a couple of years half time which helped with the adjustment.

My spreadsheet agrees with you DM. We can do 4k bopd on the shallows so maybe 3 successful deep wells at 2k bopd each would see us there!

An introduction to newbies would also not be quite complete without mention of the heat and pressure problems in the deeps and the tendency for pipes to get stuck, to say nothing of the problems of getting hold of the right acid.
Still, hopefully with the new sidetracking approach, all those problems will be behind us! HNYTALTHs and welcome to all Newbies

Aktau is the right spelling. BBC weather:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/610612

8-10p on the shallows; 12p with a boat charter; 25p with a proper deep

I prefer to think of it as a mixture of accumulated distrust and bad luck rather than risk. Poor communications in the past together with the impact of both covid and the war in the Ukraine have together pushed the share value down below its true value.

For newcomers (and there are likely to be a fair few over the next months) this is a share that has turned the corner, and its dividend yield is much more reliable thn the market currently supposes. Buy now and you'll get the yield and the capital appreciation.

The salt layer is a well known part of the local geology

If those continue to be the prices, then I think it would be possible to continue with the dividend, but it would be about 75% of free cashflow at 2400 bopd. The 35-40% figure in the RNS about dividend policy would only work for 4000 bopd. Mind you, the £1m a month was always stated to be a minimum which would be exceeded if free cashflow permitted it using the 35-40% rule.

I intend to use alcohol rather than acid to achieve this.

May I wish you all a shallow and horizontal Christmas and a deeply gushing New Year. Unfortunately we won't be pushing out the boat this year but next year I anticipate a capital appreciation for all our fortunes
[>>>>*

A good account of all the various theories and how they relate to CASP share movements. I think the share price reflects beliefs about the future cashflows from the company. If the dividend is delivered for a few months and then raised, particularly if it is backed up with solid news, then I think the share price should rise more than in proprtion to the dividend increase, because peoples beliefs about the future cashflows will have changed. Another way of putting this is that risk premium will have diminshed. I suppose they are different ways of looking at the same thing.

KK, my spreadsheet is constructed on a different basis. There is no agreed way to calculate netbacks, but my understanding is that they don't usually include fixed costs. To calculate free cashflow you will have to subtract such costs. I think that is probably the difference between your estimate and mine.

It would be nice to know current MR and domestic trader prices in Kazakhstan

On a different basis using my spreadsheet, I think we would need 3000 bopd to get to a $2m monthly profit, based on selling to MRs and domestic, but we should still be well over $1.2m at present and should get up towards $3m as output ramps up in the spring. If anything I am expecting the monthly dividend to increase from next spring.

Breaking news: CASP say they are going to do something and then they actually do it!

With a paltry 12.5% p.a. return on our money, it will take 8 years for us to double our money. Lets hope the regularity of the monthly dividends next year will persuade the market to uprate the sp accordingly.

Rarrri a name? an ETH token? a babyish name for a ferrari? a rapper from the Bronx?
Wen a growth or cyst? a medieval double U? an illiterate when? women entrepreneur network?

I dunno CC. You'll have to tell us