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An unfortunate image

Hi Smarty, I agree that current profitability is likely to be more than adequate to pay the dividend based on your suggested net figures. Cashflow is however also dependent on capital expenditure and we have even less information about that.

The current sp is at a ridiculously low level, even given the limited information available that we have and there will be RNSs at the end of June and again probably before the autumn.

It's very difficult to model what is going on in CASP in H1 2023, but working backwards, they need $7.2m cashflow for H1 net of operating costs and capital investment if they are to continue paying the dividend. They may have had some money in the bank at the end of 2022 (we'll find out soon) but I think the limited drilling activity we are now learning about indicates a cashflow difficulty.

This may be partly explained by the need to put money aside for the dividend. My own view is that the cashflow situation is not so bad that the dividend won't be paid (we shall find out very soon). However with the very limited operational information that we get now, I am much less confident in this prediction than I used to be when talking about such issues in the past.

Whatever the case may be, I am optimistic that output in H2 is likely to be higher and that profitability will continue to justify the dividend

Its the H1 performance which will affect the dividend and as usual the recent RNS gave the impression of disclosure of the current state of affairs but on closer examination left us completely in the dark. "Recent" output is at 2k bopd, but when did it actually come down from 3k bopd.

Sales to the mini-refineries continues, but what is the actual price? Can anyone put a dollar price on the following quote from the RNS?

"However, the recent fall in the international oil price means that the net price achieved from sales to mini refineries is now broadly equivalent to the net price the Company would expect from international sales without the Urals oil discount."

They used to do more regular operational updates but even then the variation in bopd always came as a surprise because they didn't give full information. The main shareholders do, I assume, know what is going on but the PIs have always been left in the dark.

I hold here, despite their appalling comms, because the shallows are sufficient to justify the dividend and there is always a possibility of a deep bonanza

Some people are getting out this morning as they realise they have been misled by all the hype over the last few weeks. As a more considered evaluation takes place, I think the much improved cashflow position, the consequent ability to progress drilling and the probability of continued dividends will lead to a recovery in the sp.

Information about the dividend one way or tthe other would have been helpful, not to say polite. Appalling comms as usual.

The rise in the value of CASP in the first half of the year was based on the monthly dividend and the high yield. It now seems likely that the level of the dividend will be maintained at the very least and so that justification for holding the share has returned. They also have a good cashflow situation.

This should push the value of the share up considerably this week. There will be a limit as to how far this can go until we have more operational news, but I think in the 7-8p range. Today's RNS demonstrates that no news means we really don't know what's going on. CASP clearly don't think they need to tell us when nothing is happening, even if they have clearly said something will happen in a previous RNS.

Hi Somm, we really don't know what is happening at 802 at the moment or if there is a 90 day test in progress. We know the oil is there, but we have failed to get much out of the deeps despite trying for years. There is likewise only very limited info about 803. We don't know whether the divi will be paid or not. We have no clear idea about current bopd.

We do know that the shallows are flowing and the boat is chartered out. As coffee said that is what is known and what has been paying the dividend and more than justifying the sp.

I like to think you are right and 802 and 803 will flow, but this is a hope, not a certainty. I also hope your blood pressure has got back to normal now.

ps I haven't yet forgiven you for quoting me out of context. That may take some time.

I am pleased to see we are back to a reasoned discussion with widespread admissions of ignorance about the true state of affairs. Those of you who are relatively new to this board will have been able to spot the sharks.

Having said all that, I remain positive about CASP in the near future, although deeps are and always have been a long shot.

CASP tends to slide in the absence of news. However news will definitely be coming in about three weeks, so getting out now will need a swift turnabout to get back in before the inevitable rise into the news.

What did you think about the Seville Roma match Somm? Was the referee biased there as well?

A lot of the concern on this board is about why there has been no operational update and what this might mean. CASP are supposed to report material changes, but they are about as reliable in deciding what falls into this category as the UK government is in deciding which whatsapp messages to release to the Covid Inquiry.

Patience is still needed as has been the case for a long time. Chill!

A few observations Kheldar

Firstly, we are near the bottom of our recent range over the last four months

Secondly, there was no actual bad news in the RNS

Thirdly the hype on this board in the run up to the RNS has been a bit artificial and I am sure not taken too seriously by many PIs

Fourthly, the talk of take-over or merger are a bit previous in my opinion

So all things considered, I think the market reaction is unsurprising. I am continuing to hold

I've been out this morning and just read the RNS. It didn't take long!

My forecast of the RNS was just as bad as everyone else's!

Some people are now jumping from "wonderful news" to "a take-over" in their interpretation of events (or rather the lack of them).

I have a new suggestion. I haven't a clue what is going on and we are just going to have to wait until later this month (for accounts) and maybe later for operational updates. Long Term Holders will not be surprised, even though some of them got a little bit over-excited last month.

There is definitely something going on in the background Paul, but some people have tried to imply that it must be something wonderful. Most of them should know better because they are LTHs who have been here in similar situations in the past. As I have previously posted I am expecting a mixed RNS with rather more good news than bad.

Today's sellers are hoping for bad news and a price drop so they can buy in cheaper later. Some of them may even have been posting about something wonderful for CASP in the last few days.

Some other things you may not have eliiminated, Kheldar

An RNS could still land sometime during today

The incompetence of the CASP board means they actually break AIM rules

The courtesy of an operational update before the end of the month in the absence of accounts simply doesn't occur to them.

I don't think we are in take-over territory yet. If the results are bad, who would buy us. If the results are good, they still need proving up a little more if we are to get a fair price.

The website put the asterisks in. I won't repeat this completely innocent word because the same may happen. It is something you do with a play before the first night and the asterisks spell out that part of your body upon which you sit.

all the possibilities for a major move up with the next rns have been well rehe****d on this board by our many excellent contributors with accompanying research.

the one thing that lths know about casp is its capacity to surprise. there have been some nasty surprises in the past, but more recently most of the surprises have been good. i am expecting a mixture of the two in the next rns with a move up to the 7-9p range. by the autumn i think it is reasonable to expect double figures

Kheldar, surely the logic of your argument is to buy now while they are cheap and then hold for a good long time.

It's gone very quiet all of a sudden!

To paraphrase an earlier post of mine: If you are trading be very careful. If you're feeling optimistic about the medium term future, then by all means load up. I am holding.