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We have our answer to yesterday's question about 802 - it flowed between 700 and 900 for three days. How can it be right that they can announce the start of this flow but not the end in an RNS?

Smarty, I agree with almost everything you say, but the figures do not disprove that output was above 3k bopd at some point, for however a short a period.

If this discussion board has any influence whatsoever on CASP then I would like to add my voice to the complaints. Communications are not just bad, they are appalling, and probably contravene AIM regulations. Investors are left with entirely misleading impressions about the state of the company.

Having been here for many years, I now factor this mendacity in, which is one reason I was so against the ramping going on last month. Having said that, I am expecting good results for last year and probable recovery in output by sometime in the autumn.

Kheldar, the figures are fine. What they say is that output has averaged 2k bopd. The RNS saying output was at 3k bopd for a period could have been offset by production below 2k bopd in another period. We don't know how long 3k bopd was kept up for, but I suspect not for very long. CASP has form in this area, reporting a surge in output but neglecting to inform us when it turns out to be shortlived.

Having read the AGM presentation I can understand the level of complaint directed towards Clive. He clearly allowed us to think that output had gone up by 50% when it had not, or if it had, only for a very short time.

Despite what has been said below, I think it is possible to make a profit for CASP out of B8 although I agree output would have to return to previous levels and the deal could have been better.

As I understand it, the $60m is only payable from profits as they come in and is not up front.

Quaytec, I think you are crediting CASP with more competence than they possess. Switching from monthly to quarterly dividends occurred because they knew they couldn't pay that month. Looking three months into the future is well beyond their capabilities.

An outsider reading the Alliance article today would think there had been a fall in revenue of $18m last year, whereas this the loss in revenue in comparison with what revenues would have been without the Ukraine war, before tax (which is greater on exports). It's not just Clive that is poor at communications!

At 2000 bopd and domestic prices I think they can still make a surplus They have used the larger surplus at the beginning of the year to get stuck into their deep drilling required by the licence, but may have gone a little too hard and fast initially on the expectation of 4000 bopd (as per January RNS). The problems in the shallows (about which we need more info) together with the divi payments must have created some cashflow issues which they thought they could solve by moving to quarterly divis. The shallows issues have turned out to be more long term and so they have been forced into the half boaty sale.

The Seychelles location of the buyer may be what is delaying the accounts being signed off.

The whole business model complete with divis works IMO on 3-4K bopd, so we need to know how and when they are going to get there. The sale of boaty buys us a year or so max (with divis) so that is the timescale for sorting the problems out.

The only information we have got from the accounts is that output was an average of 2170 bopd in 2022. We were told that it was expected to rise to around 4000 bopd with 141 and 142 shallow wells in a January 23 RNS and presumably the dividend policy was based on this kind of output. My spreadsheet suggests that 3000 bopd would have been enough. Current output, we have also learned, is about 2000 bopd due to production problems in the same wells.

My assumption is that money that they planned to fund dividends is going on bringing the shallows production back up. Spending on the deeps will also have been going slow as a result. The need of the major shareholders to re-instate the dividend has led to the half sale of the boat. They would not have done this if output had held IMO.

All that is needed to get the dividend back to its expected level is getting the shallows back on line properly. We need to ask at the AGM what the problems are here. Is this a permanent problem or just a glitch? The shallows should justify the dividend on their own as coffee cups has said repeatedly.

Sorry I missed the CASP breakfast club this morning. I may have repeated some of your points as I haven't scrolled that far down yet.

Anybody joining me for the Casp Breakfast Club tomorrow or will it be an AGM job?

I think incompetence is a much more likely explanation, Bull, based on previous experience.

Wenn die Gladiolen sind 42p wieviel ist der Tod?

I say, badgers, that's jolly beastly of you

I hope you're all up early and glued to your screens for the Clive special this morning. If it arrives! Good fy accounts likely but how much operational detail we'll get is anybody's guess

Next week is going to be interesting. When the RNS drops there is going to have to be some very fast reading to guess where CASP is going next. Go to bed early and get up before 7am.

Somm, I thought I had made it clear, you are not my mate. Quoting me out out of context was not acceptable.

I don't think anyone is telling us something we don't know because, currently, we know very little!

Somm, a quarterly divi would turn it around as would fy accounts that exceeded expectations. And also operational news of course

If they miss one quarter's divi (and that is by no means certain yet) and then get back on track, that will still be a 9% divi. I am still of the opinion that this is oversold, but then when it does go down, it does tend to fall some way. It will probably take news to turn it around at this stage. Good fy results will probably be not enough. Some more credible explanation of operational developments and problems together with some actual news of what is currently happening would be needed. Past experience doesn't necessarily inspire confidence here, but you never know. Should be an interesting AGM.

There was a good run of buys at the end of last week so I think the bottom is in and we begin the climb back up to a more realistic valuation. The sp can move quickly in either direction on relatively low trading . We are all expecting a good full year accounts from last year and if there is positive dividend and/or operational news mixed in with the RNS, then we could well climb back into the 6s or 7s fairly quickly.

Don't block CC, MrC. We need your response when he get's out of hand again.

Agreed BM, we may not like the way the market works but not buying is a bit like not voting because a few politicians lie. Also news about the divi one way or the other will have to come by the end of June with the full year accounts.