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Many are in position similar to you. But to gain anything substantial, you might have to wait until January next year when many living in Europe would start getting frozen to death at night as Russia would put sanction on export of Gas and Oil to Europe. It is situation, that Europe could not afford to let happen, and before that happen, all love of Ukrain war would end.
Remember, NATO was prepared to fight Warsaw pack countries (that included Ukrain). Russia understand that to survive, they have to keep Warsaw pack countries away from NATO, and that is what they did. So, for Russia, it is their first step towards world war 3. Now it is NATO countries to decide, what should be next.
Personally, I do not think NATO has gone banana to start 3rd world war, as result would be entire destruction of Russia + Allies .. and NATO countries plus Allies.
We sitting in UK could play piano, but warning from russia in distant past is that there would be no island to talk about in North Sea.
So, I feel that sense would prevail and there would be no 3rd world war. That could only happen if all countries stay within their limit and that limit is not to start arming or making allies with countries close proximity of Russia or Russia not start making allies or arming countries in close proximity of USA like Mexico, Venezuela or Cuba (remember cuba crisis).
@Newdealz: You are right that he is not creating video for free. I think, if channel is monetised, you-tube pay them around $2 per 1000 views (I do not know exact amount, but payment could be more or maybe a bit less).
But obviously, for us to know what is happening and where things stand, one have to see many such videos (especially videos commentary of those who have some military and diplomatic background), go through many news from various sources plus obviously, use our own thinking, knowledge, logical conclusion and a bit of history to analyses situation (Remember, most of the time govt information are full of lies, be their ours or theirs).
Just-Another-Bot:
"question, if Rus, China etc create their own SWIFT type system, could that work in Poly's favour, because there will have to be an 'exchange,' mechanism, they can't both be hermetically sealed. Anyway, I've had beer, night all. I miss FA, there, I said it!!"
Sanctions on Russia started in 2014 (when they annexed Crimea). Thus, in 2014, Russia developed two systems to replace Swift, they are: SPFS and CyberFT.
Russian system is recent and not used or adopted as much as Swift, hence it is not that effective internationally.
But 2 developments are on the recent (late June 2022) BRICS 14th Summit held few days ago. Agenda of BRICS was using 'SPFS' instead of 'Swift' and creating new 'reserve currency' that would be used for world trading instead of dollars. Many countries other than BRICS attended BRICS summit.
A number of developing/emerging economies were invited to join 14th BRICS summit. Iran and Argentina has applied to join BRICS.
New currency would be linked to the basket value of BRICS currencies (this was announced few days ago) and would replace $ in trade between BRICS countries, Iran. Indonesia and some other countries.
@roxy2020
You are right to an extend. You mentioned two points:
1: "UKR alone doesn't have a say in this alone".
Actually, if UKR wants to stop the war and call Russia on negotiating table, they can do that. Though, they may not because NATO countries are doing everything to encourage UKR keep on fuelling the war.
With NATO military and financial support for UKR, it is morally, egoistically, politically and financially difficult for many at helm of decision making in UKR (especially those who are fighting war from safety of their office/home) to do that.
2: "Russians dont war Nuclear missiles on their doorstep in cae UKR joins the alliance"
You are right. Main reason war started is due to what you mentioned. UKR was once part of Russian empire (USSR) and Russia gave UKR (along with many other countries) independence with expected condition that they would not let their soil used against Russia, get too close to USA or NATO alliance.
This is true for USA too. Remember 'Cuban Missile crises'.
When 2 person, parties or countries fight, there are many spectators sitting outside the ring and watch. Amongst spectators, some are there to enjoy while others are their to encourage/discourage weak party.
Group that encourage and help weaker party (country) without getting involved directly in fight, they in reality r enemy of weaker party.
Group, that discourage, want end of hostility and negotiation between parties, even at disadvantage term for weaker party, are in reality, friend of weaker party.
Reason is simple, that is, longer the fight would keep going, more the weaker party would lose & suffer. Negotiation would give a chance to end hostility and save lot of damages that would happen to weaker party.
Example: Let say, your friend take up fight with Mike Tyson and start getting punches. Would you try to encourage your friend to keep fighting and get every limb broken? ... Or, would try to stop the fight and make them talk?
Same with Russia and Ukraine. Longer the war continue, more Ukraine would suffer. I think, if talks and negotiation has started from day one, maybe Russia would have stopped after liberation/occupation of Donbas region or negotiated settlement regarding Donbas region ... with less killing and destruction of Ukrainian lives, properties and infrastructure.
But supply of weapon, sanctions and encouragement to fight, made Ukraine suffer more and are still suffering. Russian forces are fighting and getting killed too, but for Ukraine, their forces and civilians are both getting killed, plus their daily lives, properties, infrastructure, actually everything is getting destroyed and that destruction is increasing on daily basis
I do not think Russia would leave without their minimum goal, rather with time, their goal would increase.
As for USA, UK and EU, none would like to get into ring except providing weapons, lip service and sanctions (that is harming West more than Russia), as all know the end result if West do enter ring, that is 3rd world war and destruction of entire western countries along with Russia.
When 2 person, parties or countries fight, there are many spectators sitting outside the ring and watch. Amongst spectators, some are there to enjoy while others are their to encourage/discourage weak party.Group that encourage and help weaker party (country) without getting involved directly in fight, they in reality r enemy of weaker partyGroup, that discourage, want end of hostility and negotiation between parties, even at disadvantage term for weaker party, are in reality, friend of weaker party. Reason is simple, that is, longer the fight would keep going, more the weaker party would lose & suffer. Negotiation would give a chance to end hostility and save lot of damages that would happen to weaker party.Example: Let say, your friend take up fight with Mike Tyson and start getting punches. Would you try to encourage your friend to keep fighting and get every limb broken? ... Or, would try to stop the fight and make them talk?Same with Russia and Ukraine. Longer the war continue, more Ukraine would suffer. I think, if talks and negotiation has started from day one, maybe Russia would have stopped after liberation/occupation of Donbas region or negotiated settlement regarding Donbas region ... with less killing and destruction of Ukrainian lives, properties and infrastructure. But supply of weapon, sanctions and encouragement to fight, made Ukraine suffer more and are still suffering. Russian forces are fighting and getting killed too, but for Ukraine, their forces and civilians are both getting killed, plus their daily lives, properties, infrastructure, actually everything is getting destroyed and that destruction is increasing on daily basis As for end result, I do not think Russia would leave without their minimum goal, rather with time, their goal would increase. As for USA, UK and EU, none would like to get into ring except providing weapons, lip service and sanctions (that is harming West more than Russia), as all know the end result if West do enter ring, that is 3rd world war and destruction of entire western countries along with Russia.
We should know that Sanctions due to Ukraine war has made life in EU, UK , Canada and USA more difficult than it used to be. Things are getting worse day by day and many lost their jobs. Many companies lost billions as they abandoned Russian business, lost in revenue as well as high interest rate and inflation in west. What about Russia?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/russia-doubles-fossil-fuel-revenues-since-invasion-of-ukraine-began
Russia doubles fossil fuel revenues since invasion of Ukraine began (in 2 months, when this article was published)
For the EU, imports were about €44bn for the past two months (€22bn a month), compared with about €140bn for the whole of last year, or roughly €12bn a month.
Even though, it is rarely reported, from various sources it is obvious that Iran reported exports are always higher than imports by 10s of billion dollars. For instance (last figures reported by wikipedia):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Iran
Exports (2018): $107 billion
Imports (2018): $ 54 billion
Overall exports chart during last 10 years (shows, Iran has plenty of excess foreign exchange to import gold):
https://www.statista.com/statistics/294339/iran-export-of-goods/
[Due to Media blackout, we in west do not know much about Iran true exports/imports ... but according to some news, Iran is getting paid in Gold, Silver and other unknown ways for Iranian exports].
https://nourlaw.com/iran-extends-unrestricted-import-of-foreign-banknotes-gold-silver-and-platinum/
Iran Extends Unrestricted Import of foreign Banknotes, Gold, Silver and Platinum
Nouraei & M. Mostafavi Law Offices – 23 June 2021-Tehran- The High Council of Economic Coordination, a legislative body composed of the President, Speaker of the Parliament, and the Head of Judiciary, has extended the time of validity for a specific decree until the end of the current Iranian year of 1400 (21 March 2021-20 March 2022). The ruling ratified three years ago stipulates that import of unlimited amounts of foreign currency in the form of banknotes is free and bringing in any quantity of raw gold, silver and platinum is allowed without payment of any custom duties and value-added tax (VAT).
It seems, Sanction on Gold purchases by USA, EU and UK is just like McDonald & Burger King Sanction on purchase of Prawn, Lobster, Squids, Salman, etc
I think, if USA & Allies put sanction on Polymetal or Russian Gold export, people who would suffer are only those who hold Poly + other Russian Gold producing shares and live in USA & Allies countries. As for Poly metal activities, it would have insignificant effect in its production or sale
Reason: Here are list of top Gold purchasing countries:
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/which-nations-have-been-buying-gold
Most Gold is bought by top 5 countries (according to some report, Iran is also accumulating gold, though, mostly unreported).
Ranking list of top 10 Gold importing/purchasing countries (Iran not included)
1. Russia
Russia has been among the top buyers of gold in the last ten years pushing its gold reserves from 882.96 tons at the end of 2011 to 2,301.64 tons at the end of 2021. In the past five years, Russia has added 683.31 tons of gold
2. Turkey
Turkey’s central bank has added around 278.55 tons of gold reserves since 2017. During 2017, 2018 and 2019, Turkey was the second largest purchaser of gold
3. India
During 2021, India imported 1,067 tons of gold, higher than 836.38 tons of imports in 2019
4. Poland
Poland purchased 125.7 tons of gold with 100.01 tons bought in 2019.
5. China
China imported an estimated 818 tons of gold in 2021, almost back to pre-COVID levels.
Rest of next 5:
Kazakhstan: During 2017-2021, added a total of 127.43 tons of gold
Hungary: added a total of 91.41 tons in the last five years
Thailand: added 90.2 tons of gold to its reserves in 2021
Japan: 2021 witnessed an addition of 80.76 tons.
Brazil: added 62.29 tons of gold in 2021
Does West need to import from Russia? ... West should stop importing everything from Russia, but problem is that, not importing is not hurting Russia but West, as in UK, prices of almost everything has gone sky high. Forget oil (not only pump petrol price but even electricity and gas bills), we have to pay higher price for Bread, butter, milk, sugar, meat, chicken, fruits, cloths ... tissues ... well, toilet papers too ... but worse is that there is scarcity of many items, especially cooking oil in shops. Some shops have ration on buying cooking oil. Was this sanction to punish Russia or Western world? ... Before war started, there was 78 Ruble to a $ (and that was exchange rate since over last 2 years continuously).
Once war started, $ jumped to ~ 135 Ruble ... then reality start sinking in within few days and market realised that sanction was self inflicting injury. Within few days, Ruble started strengthening and today it is 57 Ruble to dollar, lowest since December 1914 (last 7.5 years) and worse is that, every day Ruble value is improving against $ and $ as international reserve currency (that keeps USA afloat and brings in 100s of billion dollars in revenue to USA), is giving wayHere is one report I just seen regarding Russia export of crude oil (one should remember, that Ukraine war has given boost to Russian export earning and now my feeling is that, Russia would try to keep extending the war so that they can keep benefiting from high oil price and increased demand for months to come.
If west succeed to stop all fuel imports from Russia, it would be only replacement to countries Russia export oil. Mid east would fulfil west requirement and Russia (plus Iran) fulfil requirements of the rest ... with benefit of high oil price ... and we in West would keep paying and suffering.
Here in one report I read from 'TheGuardian'https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/jun/13/russia-ukraine-war-russia-committed-war-crimes-in-kharkiv-amnesty-alleges-evacuation-routes-destroyed-in-sievierodonetsk-live11.49 AM BST (Monday 13 June)Russia earned 93bn euros in revenue from fossil fuel exports in the first 100 days of the war, according to new research by Finland’s Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).With 61% of these exports, worth 56bn euros, going to the member states of the European Union, the bloc of countries remains Russia’s largest export market. After China, Germany remains its largest customer, with exports between 14 February and 3 June amounting to 12.1 bn euros.Other large importers of Russian fossil fuels are Italy (7.8bn euros), the Netherlands (7.8bn euros), Turkey (6.7bn euros) and Poland (4.4bn euros).While the volume of exports fell by around 15% in May, the increase in fossil demand has also created a windfall for the country: Russia’s average export prices were on average 60% higher than last year
Jeremy Weir, who heads up Trafigura, one of the world’s largest commodity traders, sounding the alarm bell at the FT Global Boardroom conference on Tuesday, according to the Financial Times. He’s the latest bigwig to sound the alarm over the potential for global economic turmoil as the Russia-Ukraine war stokes energy-market volatility.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon last week warned of a potential economic “hurricane.” Wars, Dimon said said, “have unintended consequences and this happens to be within the commodity markets of the world wheat, oil, gas and stuff like that which, in my view, will continue. We’re not taking the proper actions to protect Europe from what’s going to happen in oil in the short run and we’re not taking the proper actions to protect you all … it almost has to go up in price.”
A parabolic move would be one in which prices accelerate exponentially to the upside. Weir told the conference that oil prices were highly likely to hit $150 a barrel or more in coming months as the market wrestles with strains on supply chains as Russia attempts to shift oil exports away from Europe, the report said.
“If we see very high energy prices for a period of time we will eventually see demand destruction,” Weir said. “It will be problematic to sustain these levels and continue global growth.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-could-go-parabolic-putting-global-economy-in-critical-situation-says-trafigura-chief-11654697990
When one impose sanction on supermarkets (decide not to buy from there), supermarkets do not suffer as much as one would suffer themselves. In such situation, one would have to live without essential needs, sometime one have to travel long distance to get what one wants and most of the time one pay more than what one should.
For west, Russia was supermarket of many products. Since west needed their goods and was paying Russia in dollars, to spend those dollars, Russia was buying things they do not needed. Rest of dollars they were accumulating as reserves and accumulated over $600 bn $ reserves
Here r import and export figures of Russia. Think, what is essential need Russia imports that they could not replace it with own products ... and what West imports that west can/cannot replace with own products.
Russia 2020
EXPORTS: $330B
IMPORTS: $220B
IMPORTS
The top imports of Russia are Cars ($7.75B), Vehicle Parts ($7.28B), Broadcasting Equipment ($7.15B), Packaged Medicaments ($7.06B), and Computers ($4.1B), importing mostly from China ($50.7B), Germany ($26.1B), Belarus ($12.8B), South Korea ($7.93B), and Italy ($7.71B).
In 2020, Russia was the world's biggest importer of Aluminium Oxide ($1.38B), Precipitated Copper ($525M), Refractory Cements ($164M), Wallpaper ($138M), and Hydraulic Turbines ($74.8M)
EXPORTS
The top exports of Russia are Crude Petroleum ($74.4B), Refined Petroleum ($48B), Petroleum Gas ($19.7B), Gold ($18.7B), and Coal Briquettes ($14.5B), exporting mostly to China ($49.3B), United Kingdom ($25.3B), Netherlands ($22.5B), Belarus ($15.8B), and Germany ($14.2B).
In 2020, Russia was the world's biggest exporter of Wheat ($10.1B), Semi-Finished Iron ($4.5B), Non-fillet Frozen Fish ($2.58B), Raw Nickel ($2.26B), and Pig Iron ($1.34B)
I do not know if it is true, but I learned that even if Russian mining & other business interest of Polymetal is taken out of equation, Kazakhstan business itself can give polymetal value over £20 a share.
BT market capitalisation is ~£18 billion (if SP is ~£1.80)
But then, BT has ~ 75,000,000 miles of copper cable and estimate varies from 1 million tonne of copper (using one pair of twisted copper wires) to 10 million tonne of copper (using 10 pairs of twisted copper wires). These figures are all estimate.
Anyhow, present copper price is ~ £7000 a tonne (and rising).
So, if we assume (or estimate) that weight of copper in cables are 5 million tonnes than value of copper would be ~ £35 billion @ £7000 per tonne and that is substantially more (almost twice) than market capitalisation of entire company.
If BT do take up task of salvaging copper cables for copper, it is possible that cost could be in 100s of million pounds or more.
It is also possible that BT might find copper more than 5 million tonne (some estimated in distance past that copper could be around 10 million tonne and that would be worth ~£70 billion)
Danielh: You are right that dividend cover is measured with relation to profit and not FCF. It is obvious, as FCF is not profit.
But, from my understanding, FCF in many cases is more important than profit. A company may not be making profit (on paper) but it is possible that they may be getting richer every year because of FCF that get boosted due to depreciation and amortisation ... though, that depends on type of business.
Lets explain (from my understanding) why that is so:
(explanation is for basic understanding only and exaggerated):
A company borrows £ 50000 to buy an asset for business. Over years, asset value (on paper or book) would depreciate and loan also need to get amortised
Let say, Company revenue is £X a year. Company cost of running the business is £Y a year (that includes wages, loan interest, taxes. rent, expenses, etc)
Company takes out all running cost (£Y) of the business from £X (revenue) and is left with £Z
£X - £Y = £Z = FCF (let say £ 15000)
Obviously, loan taken to buy above asset has to get paid from business revenue.
Once bought, company would like to see this asset on book becoming £0 (or whatever residual value company consider fit) ... in other words, asset get paid off from revenue (reaches residual value ... could be £0).
Amortisation: Company would use a method (normally, straight line method) to amortise loan used to buy that asset ... let say £ 10000 a year (so that loan gets amortised over 5 years)
Company would also use a method (straight line or gradual reduction method) to depreciate the value of bought asset from £50000 to residual value (could be £0) over 10 years @ £5000 a year
So, company would declare:
Profit = FCF - amortisation - depreciation
or
£15000 (FCF) - £ 10000 (amortisation) - £ 5000 (depreciation = £0 (profit)
So, no profit and no taxes.
But company has £15000 free cash flow (FCF) that company can use to invest on business, retire debt, pay dividend to shareholders, pay interest to bond holders, etc ... as this £15000 is cash with company from revenue generated by company , it is left for company to do what company management likes.
[I believe, company like Vodafone, BT, RMG, etc ... may have huge valuable assets (lands, buildings, installed telephone lines, towers, equipment, vehicles, etc) that might be worth £ 0 or negligible in company book but worth billions]
From what I understand:
FCF excludes taxes, interests and all company expenses including maintenance of company assets.
FCF includes: declared depreciation, declared amortisation and profit.
It means, FCF is cash that company uses as working capital, use to expand business, pay dividend & interest to investors (not bank interest) or retire existing debt.
So, FCF is the cash company is left with to do what they want and can be considered as true cash company is generating above all existing expenses (including taxes and loan interests)
Many people do not realise that many tech & communication companies (as with any company), spend lots of money up front before their investment starts producing money. Obviously, money they invested has to get into accounting and company make sure that they are not taxed. This investment comes back to company in the form of depreciation and amortisation.
For instance, if they bought equipment, tools, furniture, vehicles, even buildings, etc ... when accounting, companies would deduct a percentage of their investment value (original investment that they have already made) in the form of deprecation and amortisation. Over time, all their investment in company book becomes zero, even though, in practical sense, they are still useful. Tax authority also allows company to deduct depreciation and amortisation value from their turnover before paying taxes.
So, company depreciate their asset value from turnover. Company do not pay taxes on depreciation value, and thus, even though value of company profit decreases (could even take a company into losses), in reality, company release cash in form of depreciation & amortisation from turnover.
For communication companies, value of depreciation on investment is quite high, that company can use to pay dividends or even use that cash for further investments.
WIth BT as well as Vodafone, this value is quite high and that is why their profit may be low, but EBITDA is quite high (as it includes Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation).
Actually, Vodafone is not buying shares to keep share price up, share price stable or save shares from dilution.
Soon, Vodafone would flood the market with over a billion Vodafone shares (whatever they bought over months) to retire Convertible bonds. So, whatever Vod shares Vodafone is buying, it is to get released to market in near future.
If Vodafone is buying to stop dilution, then they have to cancel treasury shares, but they are not.
It depends on how one look at things, but what I see is that, Vodafone is repaying their debt slowly (using cash flow) what Vodafone took through convertible bonds. Over months, if Vodafone buy enough shares to redeem convertible bonds, then it means, every day when Vodafone buy own shares, they pay a part of convertible bonds
If Vodafone has cash problem and needed more cash as loan, the easiest way is to not buy shares for redeeming convertible bonds, but issue new shares at time of conversion to redeem convertible bonds, what Vodafone is not doing ... shows that they are not in any need for cash or expect need to borrow in near future.
As for share price going up and down, that is immaterial for those who bought Vodafone shares to be part of Vodafone business. They should be happy that their company is paying off debt using cashflow, what they borrowed using convertible bonds, and not relying on issue of new shares (to redeem convertible bonds).
If Vodafone is buying millions of own shares, what does it tell u? ... To me, it is obvious that Vodafone have plenty of money to buy their own shares, as it needs money to buy shares, even their own shares. Right?
It also means, Vodafone is not in any financial trouble. A company that is throwing millions everyday to buy own shares could not be in financial trouble or over burden with debts. That is different matter than some holders of Vodafone shares and others on side think differently and selling their precious possessions (Vodafone shares), even when shares r giving hefty 7% plus dividends. Let them sell their shares. Who cares?
Vodafone is reducing debt everyday when they purchase Vodafone shares for treasury, as all share purchase would be used to pay back convertible bond debts.
Most important is that, Vodafone do not need to purchase Vodafone shares, as, when they would need to retire convertible bonds, they can issue new shares.
Vodafone purchasing shares from open market shows that company is not worried about debt, because if they were worried about debt, instead of buying shares for treasury to retire convertible bonds, company would have retired convertible bonds with new shares and cash company is using to buy shares, they would have used it to pay debts that they could not repay (or retire) using treasury shares.
Company not worried about debt means, company knows they are having enough revenue that they can buy shares to retire convertible bonds, instead of not spending cash to buy shares but relying on issuing new shares for retiring convertible bonds
Company knows that financial condition better than outsiders, so, if company is not worried, why anyone else is getting worried?