Roger remember you haven’t lost money or gained money until you sell, something I need to remember myself, but when faced with those red numbers on your platform account it is hard to resist despite your brain telling you that this IS a good investment your heart and missus tell you to sell just in case it totally flops.
Taking the fact that you have sold 1.9m shares you may well be responsible for a good percentage of the losses taking today for an example 240k sells dropped us 1.5 p so roger thanks for that but do I blame you not at all, each to their own. Anyway in my calcs your 100k should be valued at £100k plus within 2 years which may just about get you level. Good luck
Depending upon the terms of the funding I would in my opinion expect the sp to rise back to the circa 50p mark. Then we have an expected 18 month hiatus (not sure whether that includes the procurement process for a construction company which could take 3 to 6 months) whilst the facility is built. Once built BCN start making a profit thus IMO taking the sp up to £1plus.
During this possible 2 year process we could have further development of Zinnwald which once again IMO can only add to the company prospects and sp.
So hold the shares for a LTH prospect buy more when your guts tell you (no one will tell you) that financing is imminent. There are no quick bucks to be made here just long term bucks. The dawn of realisation has finally hit me.
Roger maybe a little optimistic on the use of the company data like cost £4K to produce and £11k sales price producing £7k per t profit let’s add say interest on loans, payback of construction costs, overheads et al at say 75% of gross profit and still using the commonly held multiplier of 7x it still puts us on £214m market cap I.e £1 plus per share.
On the points raised re lithium demand we’ve got loads of the stuff but it’s all stuck in the ground and there it will stay until we get the facility built when that will be who knows. Hopefully we start producing at the right time and it hits the market when demand is properly growing, that will be when electric cars are becoming the norm and not a niche product. But too achieve that the prices of cars will have to reduce significantly so fiesta man can afford them.
The only difference is market cap which was £49m with 120 odd million shares now £62m with 196million shares so increase in market cap but dilution of sp ongoing in my opinion gradually to 25p a share = £49m again. This will carry on till we get funding sorted when it should start rising again. Once we start production market cap should reach 7x the annual profit or there or thereabouts = 7 x £122.5m = 857.5m thus £4.37 per share. Crazy I know but that’s my take.
None of this makes sense market cap circa £50m.... Npv £1.25 bn .....
profit phase 1 = £7k x 17500 = £122.5 M per annum
Phase 2 profit £250M per annum
30 year mine life
Zinnwald to add, All lithium produced already spoken for via Hanwa & Ganfeng.
Am I going mad or missing something.
There is some mystery here
Positive rns but nothing new contained re financing package, a bit of an anticlimax really IMO. Are they going to do a Sirius and start construction with the view to gathering more finance as it progresses or are they going to wait till all finance in place possibly missing the boom in 2022. It is not clear yet. As I said previously one hurdle at a time and then think about how to jump the next.
In time the sp will recover but it’s going to be a long road, probably time to load up and then forget for 6 to 9 months whilst it creeps up, or as I am doing just hold .
would not want to be out this over the weekend I have a feeling news is on its way on Monday. Same with Vast and Prem although they have missed a self announced signing this week it’s looking likely to be on Monday, the usual lemmings are selling presenting great buying opps on all 3 shares.
Wolfi thanks for the post however it seems like everybody and their auntie are sitting on some world beating amount of lithium as are BCN, but as we have learnt to our chagrin turning this resource into useable lithium is long and hard road. BCN are in a good place to be in production for 2020/21 but through circumstances that they seem incapable of controlling cannot get that production rolling. They seem to sit around waiting for one hurdle to be cleared before they think how are we going to get over the next hurdle. This is not good management. They should have had the outstanding finance sorted ready for the final Ganfeng sign off announced the two together and bingo off we go. Maybe I have made it look too simplistic and things are a lot harder out there. They may have it wrapped up and will release details next week who knows but we should know, information is key here meanwhile the sp keeps on drifting back to the median 25p.
On the hydrogen cell stuff I raised many thanks to all our learned friends who have posted on this it has been very educational to say the least.
I suggest you google hydrogen fuel cell cars and see what you come up with. Already 3 hfc cars in production and nearly all manufacturers looking at it as an option so autocar say anyway. Was not saying it will be immediate but the time will come when the greenies will examine both options and plum for hydrogen cell as the more environmentally friendly according to the evidence I have read, maybe it’s all wrong and you are right but hey ho I will not be around to see it.
Taly maybe semantics but of course it is potentially worth more but is it as it stands actually worth more NO not until the financing of construction is sorted. If they do not hurry up lithium could be surpassed by hydrogen cells and their quicker re-fuel time. Otherwise journeys of over 200 miles say become nigh impossible with lithium cell technology as it stands maybe just about tolerable in small countries such as uk but out of the question in big countries without overnight stays.
My only saving grace this week is smallish investments in Vast and Prem which allegedly are ready to blow this week, sorry to seem ramping but have followed tips from other posters on here to my advantage obviously DYOR.
Will wait till Monday on BCN see what they have to say, should be a lot and hopefully good news.
Spot on re clarity because currently lack of is driving the market in BCN.
However mr c I disagree with us not benefitting we will benefit but it seems that the benefit is now 2 years down the line unless there is some shock Zinnwald development.
What we have here is a great resource plus an experienced partner on board. OK the sp will drip down due to a lack of clarity on how the finance is going to be raised. However one thing is certain this project will get built and start generating profits later in 2020 possibly early 2021. We will have to either hold till then to get something out of this or take the hit and get out pronto. I personally am for holding but others may need to get out and use their money to generate quicker income.
The old adage buy on the rumour sell on the news has never been truer and has taught me a valuable lesson in investing.
The laid back approach of PS can be annoying but he has got us so far in this and Zinnwald so maybe the criticism of him is a bit unfair but it seems par for the course on most BBs .
Quite a subdued response this morning to THE big news. I would have thought there would be more posts than 6 at 7.20 am maybe we are all too fatigued with the prolonged wait. Anyway onwards and upwards two more milestones to pass before this really is big. Completion of funding and then Zinnwald whatever we are doing with that. VAST & PREM both ready to blow too.
Let’s see 50p here today and I’ll be satisfied as a starting point. Mrs T-J will give me some peace now at last.