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My guess is that we are in the frame for the atmosphere systems but not much else. I don't think we do much more than that with the UK Subs.

As this is a French lead build programme with "American operability" (as in the original announcement some 2/3 years ago) and it is taking place in S Australia then I can't see us getting much else.

If memory serves the Times announcement seemed to imply the start would not be for some 2/3 years or so anyway.

Hi Dar- As you say the July 2018 RNS is pretty clear but it all grist to the mill..

I was rather hoping that we could've announced a new systems contract before the year end that would enable a milestone payment. If we do announce before the month is out it will probably be too late now.

My thinking was that it would be good to make enough profit to cover last years losses. We may get a web-cast at the year end but ST tends to concentrate on future business (or at least talk about it!)

I still think we could make up last years losses but I was just wishfully thinking or hedging my bets. I keep thinking next year could be the breakthrough - I might be right this time!_

Hi notmuch, you do seem to have a down on CG. I agree that some of his announcements re orders were confusing - it's as if a request for a quote was reported as an order.

But he has a couple of pluses, In other fields and businesses CG has a successful record in growing companies and the guy just keeps going. Starting from nothing was always going to be a series of challenges but every one has been successfully met so far if a little late perhaps. 5 individuals hold just over 40% so they've got some confidence.

You have mentioned most of your last points in various posts over time. Your last sentence said that I'm to blame for my losses. I can accept that but your negative posts are not exactly helping.

Hi Max. Re your sentence in yesterdays post - "I am sitting here waiting !! ____ Waiting for Evidence about 35 "Years" of work we might pick up."

Please re-read my post. There is no evidence - your due a long wait!!

We've been testing with Airbus for some 9/10 years or so. It was probably set up then. It was probably made dormant later when they realised just how long-winded Airbus was going to be.

The last comments have been cautiously positive from HDD. The latest reactor orders and relocation can only be encouraging for, not just Airbus but other potential customers as well. Kirkham has commented on this. Time as always will tell!

Both companies have put a lot of effort into their reports but I get the feeling that they both have underestimated the revenue. Digitalook had a forecast figure of £8.5 Mill a year ago but a heck of a lot has happened since.

Reading the various releases since then from Yourgene I reckon we'll be closer to £9.5 Mill. Can but hope!

The 4 years from 2014 to 2017 only produced an average annual revenue increase of £1/2 Mill so it should be better than that! I guess the good new was that they went from a loss 0f £0.39 Mill to a profit of £0.43 Mill so at least costs were controlled.

Ominously, for me, the October Trading Statement made no comment on the French Eranova investment made some 5/6 months previously. This does not bode well.

The price is back to where it was some 10 month ago. We don't seem to ever release a negative RNS and the full years results will have, hopefully, further positive news so I can't see the price dropping much

Revenue can only increase as a result of the American collaboration plus todays announcement. Costs seem to be well under control. What could possibly go wrong!!

the 1st half report mentioned a single income payment of $1 Mill for this period. Todays RNS said that this will be " the strongest trading period to date " It's not to much to hope that we may get 9/10 Mil Revenue this year and now there's no real debt to service breakeven has a real chance of being achieved next year. This is earlier than I expected.

Yes indeed, we should get our revenue over 9 Mill by year end which is a 50% increase. If the costs are being managed properly, and the 1st half was good on that, then we will be closer to breakeven which with Sage 32 to assist next year might just be achieved.

If the year end update is positive then 19/20p could be made fairly easily. There's a terrific future here.

Thanks for the lead Richie, A lot of regurgitation of course but it does show the way HDD is determined to go. I am encouraged by the decision to order 3 reactors at once. Production capacity is at the heart of our ability to grow.

I still struggle to envisage us coping with the order that say airbus could place with us - never mind the other potential customers. Each reactor is apparently able to generate about £1 Mill of revenue each year. So with the new build programme, and allowing for I reactor designated for R & D anyway, we will have 5 in oxford and 3 in the USA producing 8 Mill in 2 years time (12 months to supply and 12 months to produce) so how do we get dividends on that?

HDD has to embark on a major reactor build programme and once that is in situ then we will potentially generate so much cash it could become embarrassing!

I've been here since 2006 and the way this is going I'm going to be the richest man in the cemetery. As an aside which will come first - an airbus order or a home game at Tottenham!!??

This is an AIM company. It has made loses for the last 6/9 years. The MC is a whole £3 Mill. Rationale has no place here!

But it might, just might, make it. We are all gambling. But I think that the current situation is positive - better than some of the past situations. Either sell or be patient.

What does the BoD know? Penny shares have volatility? Never! £3k of sells today and a 6% price drop! Well I never!

Hi unvrkw, You've certainly done your homework and may well be right. I just think that if there are significant production increases and it is inevitable that costs rise. Fuel for the new plant both in the quarries and the factories could be a significant extra and wages will rise with more employees. Transport costs to and from he factory will also rise. There'll be a few other costs but perhaps more minor.

The headcount actually dropped by 4 in full year '17 to 68 and as 2 of them were directors the total wage bill dropped by a whopping Euro 200,000 to Euro 748,034. Be interesting to see the 2018 figures.

Be interesting to see how it pans out. Lets hope we break into profit and your right!

Hi Max, you are indeed right - we are sub subcontractors!

When the contract was first announced it was said there would be American operability. I take that to mean they get the lions share - weapons systems and probably the propulsion units at possibly cost price?

We'll get the atmosphere side at least that's better than nothing. The boats are being built in S Australia so we may not get much else. Apparently the design is based on the French Barracuda class so the French will also get a big slice.

Hi unvrkw, I just added last years revenue plus the losses and got some 4.75 M and added a bit for increased production costs currently being incurred - not very scientific I grant you!

Cheers

Looking at the forecast for '18 on digitallook (Rev of 25.49 Profit of 6.96) and looking at the half-year figures my guess is that we are going to beat the forecast if only on revenue The trading up-date was encouraging if a little mooted in parts.

However this year should see even greater growth particularly if the proposed American tie up with Metropolitan goes ahead. If this goes well then it will be almost impossible not to declare a maiden Divi.

Anybody any thoughts?

Hi NotMuch, Well yes I've found previous announcements hard to understand but these do seem clearer and we seem to be really increasing quarry production.

With the extra quarry plant and factory equipment fuel and labour is going to rise so I reckon 5M plus. Might actually get there in the 2nd half.

You could be right about IHT, or at least an element of it. But it's still a hell of a gamble unless of course he's got it right!

In July we announced a framework agreement with the above and they have just announced a 35 ish year contract to build 12 Aussie submarines. Now that's what I term a long term contract! The Aussies first announced their intentions some 2/3 years ago. I'm guessing our agreement was part of Navel Groups bid. Page 33 today's Times.

A similar thing happened with Westek. 2 weeks after we bought them they announced a contract worth some 25% of their annual revenue. Positive stuff all round.

I've just had a revisit to the trading update. If you ignore the past false starts then it does seem very positive. It does seem as though we've turned a corner. We've twice last years revenue in the order book for what seems mostly block. With increased quarry equipment and personnel plus reasonable weather trebling the revenue is on the cards. Add in some processed sales from a now (at long last!) well kitted out factory and we could move into profit at least in the 2nd half. As I've said you basically have to ignore the false starts and over optimistic scenarios previously put forward. This is of course a big ask but it might just be all the ducks forming a row.

So perhaps Andrew Muir is on to something - I hope so!