Member Info for TruroTrader

Hi Formul1187 - and you are on which board? Sounds good though - best of luck

Thanks Bear. A good and succinct reminder for me as my holdings are, like TPG, largely startups. So 300 is acceptable now but if TPG is to make it then I might have to focus a little bit more on the P/E - especially if one or two others also make it into profit and decision time is coupled with profit taking! Again thanks.

Santa Baby, coming down the chimney to me!

Hi Aberystwyth, I'm not to sure re your 3 data scientists for 8 months on 10k a month. Our previous accounts have never shown this level of wages. I can't believe this level of hiring is being contemplated bearing in mind our last hiring.

Hi bakky, thanks for quite a neat summing up. Yes it's speculative but for me it's more a certainty, not cast-iron, but good enough for me to have done a little top-up.

From a 2 year period from year end '16 to year end '18 we increased our revenue by 2.5 times. From year end '17 to year end '19 we did the same. From year end '18 to year end '20 we only need to do 15 Mill to achieve this 2.5 increase. I'm confident the current growth will smash that figure. Cast Iron no - ruddy good bet YES.

Not to sure what "Walked down" actually means. The reason that this share has not moved up substantially is unknown. The only thing left in the locker is to break into a sustainable profit and pay a (token) dividend.

What else can the BoD do?

Hi eddieoxo and eshaitin - well done for hanging in there for a big bet. I actually sold out a few weeks ago as it's just to wild west for me. Regarding eshaitan's comment on the plot line re who shot JR - wasn't there also something about waking up and it was all a dream!!

Hi Richie, Thanks for the steer. Slide 9 was the most important for me as it seems to bring forward my pessimistic forecast of the time it will take to achieve profitable production. The timing of March and May means that by September year end we should be in profits (just) and a clear path to increasing revenue. Thanks again.

The last full year results for Dec 2018 were announced 6 months later on the 28th of June '19. However the interims for June '19 were announced within 3 months on the 26th of September. This was a definite improvement.

As they should now have a good story to tell with a simpler company my guess will be April - hopefully the early part.

Hi Presto and CEREUS, Woland may or not be right but if he is correct then it's only a repeat of Nov '17 when the shares went to just over 30P "for one day only folks". There are only 72 Mill shares and an MK of £2 Mill. Bear in mind the revenue is gently rising and losses are gradually falling.

I reckon a revenue of £1 Mill is enough to break even and the half year figures will be interesting. I think we could do that over this financial year. But if we get a large contract then because of the low number of shares they could rise quite swiftly.

This is my lowest value holding as I sold a few in Nov '17 but I am all profit and possibly one of by best, if not THE best to multiply my money. I f I take any profits from any other holding I will do a little top-up here as it's to good a bet to miss.

GLTA

My average buying cost is 32p so 52p is very satisfying. However I'm definitely NOT cashing in just yet. The reason is one I've not seen mentioned much.

The company is not expensive to run because broadly It's only an administration operation plus the R & D operation and a warehouse. There's no capital hungry plant and machinery that can also be expensive to house and maintain. The margin is around 40%. Once the VSP starts to deliver the contracts then the company will generate a lot of cash profit. There's not a lot to spend it on except perhaps dividends and perhaps share buy backs. There could be an initial cash flow deficit to address when a new contract starts but that's not been a previous problem.

The initial 6 contracts at £300M over say 3 years and adding in the transceiver profits could almost produce a £1 a share profit at 155 Mill shares. And that is before any other contracts. If that were to happen then what price the SP?

I am of course aware we don't yet have many contracts and I got quite exited this morning when I got the RNS alert but one day it will be a real one!

GLTA

Oh No! dibble figures again!! Slightly more serious - no new licencing news for nearly 3 months! How will it all end!

I'm quite happy with the licencing model and I note the posts re possible takeover. I would actually like to run this one but if I'm bought out then so be it. There is definitely a really big potential here and I think this could be a major earner in 2/3 years.

Hi Bloggins, Current MC is about 4 times revenue. A couple of VSP contracts and the revenue could easily increase by 2 or 3 times. Unfortunately it's getting a bit late for 2019 but hopefully one before March end.

I like your rule re selling half on a double. I try to do something similar, I like to consider selling 25% on a 25% rise and again at 50%. However I'm not to rigid. I certainly haven't done it here as I think we are very close to a significant re-rate. GLA.

Further thoughts about finance - at the risk of becoming a bore. Asset finance was being considered according to the results. Not to sure how that works but we will need some sort of finance. If a reactor can generate a Mill per year at full chat then at say 75/80% capacity it would take 4 years to generate around 3.5 mill. At a margin of say 50% this would be a return of 1.75 Mill.

The operating costs are unknown to me but I reckon that full payback on a reactor is around 4 years. As they have few moving parts apart from the vacuum pumps the maintenance costs are minimal and they last for many years, we're still running the original large reactors 7/8 years down the line.

On that basis the long term profitability is assured, it's just getting productivity up to what is hopefully an increasing level to satisfy a growing demand. We will definitely need some sort of cash injection. Exiting days ahead.

Hi SPUP. As a LTH, for so many years, what possessed you to cash in? "I think it has peaked again on no news and will sink back again."

The only time we beat the current SP was in June '17 and August '16. The situation now is totally different as we have matured as a company. So do please tell - what is your buy back price?

Hi Team83. Yes the new facilities will remove any physical bottlenecks incurred at the current site but with only 2 current production reactors I'm not to certain how much revenue this will gain us.

The cost of new reactors is crucial. If we can't fund them then it matters not a jot how many wing pads airbus want or how many turbine blades EDF want. We need to spent money to increase production. We are certainly at an important point in our growth and which comes first - the futuristic chicken or the short term egg.

gi curtt

Hi Richie, At a Q & A session at a presentation some 12 months ago Kirkham stated that each reactor could generate around £1 Mill in revenue. He also stated that the 3 Bicester reactors only operated at some 75% capacity to allow for R & D and testing. This totals some 5 and a bit production capacity.

If that is so then we're pretty much at maximum revenue until the new reactors are commissioned which is why I was pleased that the 1st one is now going stateside around April/May time as a couple of months ago Martinsville was at maximum capacity. There is some credence in those statements as 60% of our revenue comes from there with 60% of capacity also there. I dare say that we can squeeze a bit more from the current situation but not that much.

I've said before that, for me, a continual rolling build programme of reactors will be needed to be in place to attain real growth but as the cost is upwards of a £1 Mill apiece, which includes pre-treatment facilities, funding will be a major issue and the 12 month lead time is also against us.

However with new premises to come and aerospace now generating initial revenue plus the turbine blade business to come in say 18 months time we have never been in a better situation. Onwards and upwards!

This will have a good positive effect on this years figures with the full effect next year. It's almost as if this company can't stop growing. What a success story.

Plenty of positive info and a lot going on on several fronts. Noted that the 1st new reactor will now go to Martinsville instead of assisting the Bicester move. This has to be good for production figures. As we have an MC of 6 times revenue I'm not expecting any major lift until we get better figures. As ever a bit of patience needed but I'm pleased with the all round progress.

If we are going to do one this calendar year then we are starting to run out of time. Possibly the SP will start to drop in the run-up to the New Year with no news. I am both frustrated with no news and also excited with anticipation!

One day dear lord - but make it quick!