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Ohh er. Looks like PANR is being savagely dumped! Seems like 88e isnt the only dog in town that cant hold any sort of rise.
karma is a biach. The way posters from this board have been posting over on 88e, trashing the board over the last month and kicking the long term holders when they are already down and out for the count, many will feel justice is being done here. Of course, i feel for the inestors suckered in by the rampers here and buying at 40p+
Taking a leaf out of scots book regarding posting daily over and over and over and over....and over again about company woes, its clear that the market is extremely skeptical regarding funding going forward here. And who can blame them!
Dont believe the rampers here posting as if non-equity funding is certain! Because it most certainly is not. In fact, equity raises are far more likely given current market conditions, with a sprinkle "take or pay" arrangements thrown in as is custom. After all, the board have to keep a carrot on the end of that stick they are whacking you with.
So Scot, i have a question: Say PANR closes at 30p on the afternoon of Day 1. At 7am on Day 2 there's an RNS confirming all this talk of alternative finance arrangements was in fact BS, and instead a massively dilutive, heavily discounted placing to fund towards production occured. Do you reckon PANR will a) half or b) third in price by the end of Day 2? Could you imagine being long on the morning of Day 2? Could you imagine having exposure to PANR's investment case on the morning of Day 2? But that's what you're advocating, Scot.
Yikes indeed!
The only thing that goes up with UKOG is the directors salary!
Just think about it. Every placing that is done results in the transfer of money from your stock account to the directors bank account. There is no other company where this transfer is more evident than here! The Mcap is only 3x the directors salary and rapidly reducing for christs sake. How is this not theft?
BTW, will someone tell SS that the accounts are overdue with companies house for uk ouil & gas PLC, as its the poor shareholders who will foot the fine. They wont mind, they have run out of situations to be embarassed by.
The big question over here is all about the cash. Funding funding funding. How will PANR fund to production?
Clearly, the market expects significant dilution and isnt buying buzzword fluff about "mutually beneficial agreements" and "advanced talks".
It would be foolish to not expect significant dilution here. The question is, how much of the company will be left for current shareholders? Enough to make it worth holding? Some clearly dont think so, evidenced by price action here.
I personally hate it when directors state "keep dilution to a minimum". Whats their definition of minimum? Probably not the same as shareholders. So many times this phrase has been uttered, but shareholders completely wiped out.
"I have not persuaded a single 88E shareholder to sell 88E, not one."
Wow scot, that was weak. Lets explore that logic. "rampers" who you claim to despise havent persuaded any individual to buy? I dont rember anyone explicitly telling any reader to buy shares! Because thats how it works, right? Unless you explicity comment that a shareholder should sell or buy 88e, you have free rein to write whatever bs FUD about 4bopd or million barrel gushers that you can conjure. But as long as you dont say the word "sell", that makes it okay?
What a silly thing to say. So you wont have any problem with me writing "wow, fantastic results from 88e. they have found oil. amazing for shareholders". Yet here lies your problem! You seem to have a great deal of problems along with olderwiser regarding any sort of enthusiasm around 88e, and percieve the above example comment as a "ramp".
So why is that? Judging by your reaction to 88e increasing 50% last week, i would say that you are having a hard time dealing with your calculated value discrepancy between 88e and PANR. Note i said your, as your and the markets value clearly differ wildly. Perhaps you got this one wrong, and the market will never see what you see...afterall, they havent for some years now.
And dont get me started on faith scot. It appears 88e holders are not the only ones clinging to faith. "on hope with little or no empirical evidence to offer tangible support or proof for the deity of that religion". Nice definition... hmm let me think. Kind of reminds me of those thinking PANR will be fully debt funded into production with virtually no dilution, wouldnt you say? So where does your faith lie scot? Who are your gods? Is it the board of PANR? Well its very safe to say, your gods are as mortal as the rest of us, and certainly impartial to the not so occasional coock up or two.
The market having an epiphany regarding PANR valuation, and them going into production dilution free. Perhaps it is you who should seek help for your hopium addiction. They do say repetitiveness is a symptom.
Looks like its not only 88e holders hurting Scot. PANR almost back to where it started on its own P&D campaign. I appreciate that you are hurting regarding the market still valuing 88e far higher than PANR and have done for many years, but hey, perhaps you shouldnt be investing in AIM shares if you dont grasp valuation concepts beyond physical barrels in the ground. Dont take it out on those who made money on 88e and know the AIM of the game!
If 88e is as bad as you say it is, PANR by your calculations must be an order of magnitude worse judging by how the market values it. Arbritrage opportunity you scream....well there has been no takers for how many years now?? You almost blew a gasket when 88E rose 50% the other week lol.
And stop ramping the hid legs off PANR regarding how funding will be sought, you are making yourself sound like a massive hypocrite! Everyone knows more likely than not PANR will undergo substantial dilution to get production going. All this debt funding nonsense is wishful thinking unless proven otherwise. Hence the pullback from last weeks highs! You are sucking in punters to get spiked on misinformation regarding how PANR will be funded with no guarantee. More likely it will be funded by dilution like it did to pay back convertible bonds. So lets get that very clear.
The BOPD figures are an extrapolation of what the company expects the formation to flow at once well has fully cleaned up, based on pretty solid data already collected. Posters sprouting nonsense and cherrypicking bits and pieces to suit their agenda suggesting 4 BOPD and thinking they know more than the company are hilarious (olderwiser no surprises there). Only a longer flow test where frack fluid has all but left the zone, and a sustained measurement of oil cut would definitively prove this, so lets not spread misinformation regarding oil collected over the very limited flow test being anywhere near the oil flow potential or capability of this formation. We both know this is complete and utter BS olderwiser, so lets not talk of your negative outlook on the results and dress them up as facts. Everyone knows your agenda here. Im presonally no longer invested, but the FUD you post here in order to scare those less versed in the tactics of posters with agendas must be countered and shown for what it is.
There are still missing pieces of info us mortal PIs are not privy to in order to make any educated assumptions let alone sprout BS on here as facts. Stating the company is outright lying as you and scot strongly imply is also libelous and defamatory, so cut the nonsense.
So lets get this very clear: The company, based on the flow test carried out and the data thus far collected, have extrapolated out and suggested a flow rate of approx 50 BOPD. They provided no time basis, so the length of time this can be sustained is still a question mark which needs answers.
Lets also get this very clear: Posters suggesting this flows at 4 BOPD and strongly suggesting/implying this is as good as it gets ARE TALKING UTTER BASELESS BS! FACT!
Chucked a few this way this morning. Great shame what is happening on the london markets, but lets be honest we have been sleepwalking upto this point over the last few years (since brexit things have got worse).
Deathly low volumes, no liquidity, few participants and funding drying up. We also have an investor base very technology adverse. A galaxy apart from the NASDAQ ecosystem and the depth of knowledge of such companies.
I dont blame one bit this company wanting to go private. This London listing is not worth the paper it is written on. This will be on NASDAQ in a couple of years at multiples of its current valuation, along with others. If you have the patience and cash to hold some of these going private, you could do very well when they inevitably relist in USA.
Far, far too cheap for the potential of this company.
"baseless speculation". Ha
You would know all about that, wouldnt you olderwiser. Not two weeks ago, you were calling this a duster without empirical evidence. Yet you continued your smear campaign against 88e, even derying a credible flare photo as fake. Everyone knows why you post here. You influence nobodys decision, you dont stop "pumpers" and nobody gives two dumps what you say. I am genuinely embarassed for you, thinking you have any influence here despite how wrong you got it. But hey, good to see no one is reiterating that the USFS is a duster!
Lets go down memory lane on some of your not so accurate, proven to be wrong baselsss speculation shall we:
"this RNS screams failure of the USFS to me, the wording is just so flat, this company spins up everything, so no enthusiasm means a poor result"
25th march: "Which means the well has already been shut in, so nothing is now returning to surface. There will be no flare for Dalton highway users to photograph"
"My opinion is that RNS is so lacking in enthusiasm, or the mention of oil flow, that it is a very poor result, and this RNS is the softener"
"Thats a funny one, I tend more towards fact than fantasy, can you not determine the difference. Catch up this coming Thursday"
*My personal favorite* "Reading and comprehending a 88e RNS is a skill, focus on what is not said, we will see soon enough".
These comments didnt age very well did they? Well, the RNS came soon enough and 88e flowed oil, then you disappeared for a few days, only to come back with your agenda here again thinking everyone would forget how wrong you were. Your face should be red how poor your analysis was. very embarassing! You couldnt have been more wrong if you tried. A stopped clock gets it more right than you.
Full disclosure: I sold on results day at 0.405 as that was always my strategy here from the get go. But dont listen to this olderwiser character. You would have lost money if you followed this posters lead over the last month. His analysis has about as much hold as a chocolate fireguard.
This restructuring is a bad deal all around for current SHs. No nobel prize for me stating the obvious, but for example in exchange for the secured lenders wiping off £4m in debt, and waiving of liquidity covenants, they will be given almost 10% of the company in exchange for a few peanuts if the shareprice stays above 4p for over 60 days!
Sure its a risk for the secured lender, but what a ridiculous warrant exercise price. Success is just another way to F up curent SHs. The best for current SHs is an outright purchase of the company before this restructuring takes place, take the losses and run.
if all resturcturing goes to plan, approx market cap will be £15m, of which £11.6m will be cash, valuing the company as it currently stands at £3.4m, or 1.45p per share.
if you are still holding now, you are basically betting on the company recieving an offer before restructuring takes place above 1.85p or takeover speculation that may cause a spike. There is literally no other reason to hold. Given the debt the company is in, and the dismal profits if any (skewed this year by a one off lease sale), bandits c.3p looks very very generous indeed. I doubt any PE would want to pay more than 1.45p for this outfit given this is the valuation of the company as things stand after restructuring. Any offer above 1.45p would be beneficial to the small PI.
Only big SHs, banks, secured lenders and of course the board benefit from this restructuring and its subsequent sucess (if any). PIs, as per, will be left with nothing. And this current premium over the 1p placing price will reduce with time as we get closer to the restructuring event.
All in all, a bad deal. But it never was going to be a good deal for current SHs. Lets hope the company gets sold.
Sorry scot, but it is extremely mathematically disputable when you dont include other factors that influence (admittedly time variable) vaule such as brand recognition, non-tangiabes, good will the market attribites to 88e ect. Missing these factors/influences out will significantly perturb your valuation and drive you insane.
I say time variable, but 88e has had this "barrel in ground" premium over PANR for years now. If i were you, i would ask myself if it is me that is missing a piece of the puzzle.
The same what you are saying could be said about UK vs US assets in terms of the huge valuation discrepancies between companies with the same physical assets and EPS. But we all know its a little more complicated than that, and not likely to correct itself anytime soon.
And scot, the market obviously doesnt agree with your analysis, and hasnt done so for years. Why do you think posting literally the same thing on here daily will change that? You are clearly frustrated in your belief that 88e is worth less, but lets examine that.
You just talk about tangible assets a company holds. Valuing a company goes way beyond that, and focusing on just tangibles alone is plain wrong. Even things like charisma of particular CEOs adds value to AIM companies! When do you ever hear the name of PANR's Director compared to, for example, the DW of old here. Yes he ramped, but his style got the right people excited and made them hand over hundreds of millions. This has value! Your view is far too one dimensional. You only care and talk about assets in the ground. The simple fact that you hear more about 88e than PANR could make 88e oil worth more. Whether you like it or not, you need to factor this into your valuation calculation under non-tangiables. If you dont consider this, you are missing a vital part of the valuation equation which i reckon goes some way to explaining why the market likes 88e's barrels more than PANR's.
Well, good to see no one is reiterating that this phase of the test is destined to be a duster. Wouldnt you say so olderwiser?
A few snipbits of olderwisers not so wise words over the last week that really didnt age very well at all;
"this RNS screams failure of the USFS to me, the wording is just so flat, this company spins up everything, so no enthusiasm means a poor result"
25th march: "Which means the well has already been shut in, so nothing is now returning to surface. There will be no flare for Dalton highway users to photograph"
"My opinion is that RNS is so lacking in enthusiasm, or the mention of oil flow, that it is a very poor result, and this RNS is the softener"
"Thats a funny one, I tend more towards fact than fantasy, can you not determine the difference. Catch up this coming Thursday"
"Reading and comprehending a 88e RNS is a skill, focus on what is not said, we will see soon enough"
Well come on now olderwiser, here we are on results day where you were adamant the USFS was a dud and telling everyone how you would be right come results. Dont be bashful. Care to explain your skillful analysis of the RNS's released by 88e, your comments re fake flare which obviously werent fake, and the 70bopd flow rate achieved vs your estimates of zero? Every analysis of yours was totally wrong. You completely misread the company and their new style.
Of course when you are ready. plenty of egg to wipe off your face yet.
Haha fake...righttt olderwiser. if you say so. Your name isnt Donald by any chance is it? Just man up and admit you were wrong and stop spreading misinformation based on nothing but your poor interpetation of data put in front of you. As this flare image was taken on 28th, it was likely from upper SFS. This image is as clear as day taken on the side of the highway, yet you decry this as fake news but more than happy to definitively state no flare from a crappy, grainy satellite image. Talk about picking and choosing pieces of information to suit your own narrative! How predictably unobjective and moronic.
As it has been pointed out, common sense suggests that if a fake flare image were to do the rounds, it would have most certainly done so at an opportune moment, namely when markets were open perhaps? But no, this particular person decided in his infinite wisdom to post a "fake" during the weekend when results for upper SFS will almost certainly be out before the chance to profit from said fake. Makes about as much sense as you do olderwiser.
Once again, your extrapolation of information leaves much to be desired. So let me walk you through the new line of thinking here as you seem to have problems with extrapolation...
Now, more likely than not, based on new information presented to us, is it more likely than not we are flaring gas? Answer: Yes!
As you were so adamant and fierce in pointing out last week that no flare = no oil, conversely now we have a flare, will we now be equally as fierce in the suggestion that we now have oil olderwiser?
Will you admit we have oil now, or continue with this bs FUD crusade of misinformation? Logically speaking, you have already admitted it given your no flare = no oil equation!
To see a flare is obviously a great sign of oil coming to the surface. The question is now, how well does it flow and in what quantity? Very best of luck to all, and hope come tuesday 8am we will all be sitting very pretty indeed.
What factually incorrect information OW?? The information handspring posted was factually correct! Where is the implication in that post where he referred to 88e injecting flare gas into the ground? Perhaps you should go get your reading glasses, or are we all missing something?
I'll tell you what is factally incorrect. You stating that there is no flare at hickory. Do you have a 24 hr infrared camera on the side of the dalton highway overlooking the hickory site??? No! So how can you lecture someone over misinformation when you base your so called "facts" on snapshot, grainy infrared images taken of the site that occured days apart?? If that is your data input, your output conclusions are not going to be very reliable are they?
So stop spreading misinformation regarding lack of flare at the site based on unreliable data and linking that piece of misinformation to conclude that there is no oil in the flowback.
The heard expecting a duster similar to those of time gone by.
Lets remember what happened when the heard expected gushers...and the results after. This sell off into results is a very positive indicator to me! I added into close.
No ramp up at all into results. Market very subdued. Certainly feels different than on the eve of results in times gone by here. As a contrarian, this is a good indicator for me. When everyone else has given up hope, BAM. They hit a home run.
Stocks make the most agressive moves upwards when the market is caught totally offguard. For once, the expectations here are at an all time low. Lets hope the company can finally bat the home run they so desperately need.
You cant help but think, given the history, the very fate of the company now rests with the results of this well. If this well doesnt flow, the Mcap will implode and will leave behind a brown dwarf type remenant of a company that will slowly dim as time passes until eventually, the light will go out.
We discussed this last night olderwiser; unfortunately for some reason our thread got removed/deleted. I thought we concluded that during testing, any flaring is likely to be intermittent short bursts. We also do not know the downhole oil/gas ratios, so we do not know the constant in the equation oil flow is proportional to gas flow, i.e by what factor is it proportional? The relationship is logarithmic.
So to state that lack of flaring means zero (or near zero oil flow), this is simply not true at all.
We also saw a document ftom the state of alaska posted by another member stating restrictions on flaring for longer than an hour (except for pilot light and emergencies). To purposely flare excess gas for long periods of time is illegal except for emergencies in the state of alaska.
In conclusion...we are not expecting to see a roaring dirty great flame from the flare stack for days on end during flowback. To suggest otherwise is just plain factually incorrect.
Yeah, fair enough Olderwiser.
I dont believe DW thought icewine would be a duster from the outset, and looking at the data, you could argue the probablity for good news was high hence the pre results ramping. In hindsight, this was a terrible idea. "Probability of good news" has meant nothing in the past, and pre results ramping based on probability of good news has lead to disasterous results. So based on history, logic would dictate the following where 88e is concerned:
- Ramp up from company into results = duster
- no ramp up = sucess?? (we never had this scenario before)
Probability of good news aside, i can only see it as a good thing that the company have finally learnt from their past mistakes of agressively ramping into results, which has lead them to dusters and disaster in the past. Has this leopard changed its spots? We can only know for certain when results come out.
And i would hardly call that a ramp where it clearly states in the bottom table 88e's share of resources. Even caling that a subtle ramp is a stretch of the imagination.
And look what happened in the past when 88e put a positive spin on things!
The fact they are remaining much more tight lipped and not being as rampy can only be interpreted as good. Let the results talk....then raise. What good would a rampy RNS do now regarding getting away a capital raise given the results are literally a couple of days away?? That would only benefit traders. The company have had months to ramp this to get away a raise, yet we havent seen any ramping at all. This is where your arguement falls over. We have seen a completely new RNS style throughout this campaign.
I dont see how you think a rampy RNS of the old DW days would be interpreted as positive! That would be history repeating itself.
Maybe they learnt their lesson from previous failiures Older. This used to get savagely ramped by DW back in the day if there was a sniff of oil. Look how disasterous that ended up. If 88e mentioned oil in flowback in some bombastic RNS, this would have got savagely ramped allowing traders to profit. Under promise, over deliver! Nothing wrong with a flat RNS...as long as they deliver the goods come results.
Mystic also has a point. PANR lending ther expertise would only happen if it was worth their efforts. I cannot see this backscratching happen if PANR expected a duster.
Cant believe i am saying this, but even putin is right on one thing. Getting caught up in RNS semantics is pointless, as there is no reading between the lines there. Its a straightfrward RNS detailing when results are expected. Nothing more, nothing less. Why would they mention any oil shows in flowback if results are to be released in a few days? That would be very rampy to me, and a massive sell signal.